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DAX UBER ALLES
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Macro Overview ๐:
Interest Rates ๐ฐ: ECB deposit rate unchanged post-25bps cut; next easing eyed if inflation cools.
Inflation ๐ฅ: HICP ~2.1% avg 2025, services at 3.4%; nearing 2% target mid-year.
Growth ๐: Real GDP +1.2% projected 2025, quarterly +0.3% medium-term via wage gains, exports.
Jobs Market ๐ฅ: Unemployment 6.3%, resilient despite slowdown; wage growth moderating to 1.9%.
Bank Orders ๐ฆ: Neutral flows; ECB stimulus aids liquidity, but trade tensions curb big bets.
Seasonal Tendencies ๐: Nov-Dec historically strong โ 76% win rate over 25yrs, avg + gains; year-end rally potential amid OPEX flows.
Sentiment Signals ๐ค:
Retail Traders ๐: 45% bullish (crowd optimism on holiday boost), 55% cautious (ECB wait).
Institutional Activity ๐๏ธ: 60% long bias (accumulation phase, defense at key zones), signaling steady inflows.
Investor Mood ๐ญ: Fear & Greed at 19 (Extreme Fear) โ Contrarian buy signal as panic eases.
Correlations ๐: +90% with S&P 500 (US lead), -70% with EUR/USD (weaker euro lifts index), + with oil/gold on risk flows.
Overall Outlook ๐: Neutral โ Balanced rebound on Fed hopes, but macro drags cap upside. Watch ECB for tilt.