$QQQ Trading Range for 9.2.25
Ok, so we are heading into tomorrow after the three day weekend a little bearish. Friday every candle printed red and the 35EMA is above us facing down so definitely look to that as resistance.
The 30min 200MA is also facing down and above that we have even more resistance.
I am not in a hurry to go long here until we print a green candle OR hit the bottom of the implied move at 565, which ever comes first
QQQ trade ideas
QQQ – Another Channel in Play: Breakout or Breakdown?QQQ has been respecting a series of parallel channels since March of 2023, forming a classic stair-step bullish pattern. Each channel ended with a break below the 10-week SMA.
🔸 Strong Trend Structure
▪ The chart shows five clear ascending parallel channels, each followed by a corrective/downward or sideways phase.
▪ This stair-step structure is characteristic of bullish price action, followed by consolidations, which often signals a healthy uptrend.
🔸 Channel Integrity
▪ Each channel respects its upper and lower bounds well, showing consistent buying pressure and trend continuation.
▪ There are multiple touch points for each upper and lower band, showing price support and resistance levels.
▪ The last channel is slightly narrower than the previous ones, which could imply momentum compression before either:
• A breakout (continuation upward).
• A breakdown (channel failure and pullback).
🔸 Risk Zone
▪ If QQQ breaks below the channel support and the 10-week moving average, the next likely support zone is around $540–$550.
🔸 Key Levels
▪ Upside Target: If QQQ breaks above the channel, we could see $600+ based on the measured move of prior legs.
▪ Watch volume for confirmation on any breakout attempt.
▪ Support Zone: If the channel fails, $540–$550 is the first major demand area aligned with prior consolidation.
🔸 Trade Ideas
▪ Bullish Bias: Breakout with strong volume, stop below channel support.
▪ Bearish Bias: Breakdown on confirmed move below channel and moving average.
Note: This is not investment advice. Do your own research before making any trade decisions. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing.
💡 What do you think – continuation or correction? Drop your thoughts in the comments!
QQQ Sellers In Panic! BUY!
My dear friends,
QQQ looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 570.30 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 572.83
Recommended Stop Loss - 568.90
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
QQQ Potential Bearish ResolutionOn the larger timeframe, the overall structure is a bear flag off the bigger down-move, much better than the earlier wedge attempt
If QQQ were forming a wedge, price would be swinging wider with higher highs & lower lows, like a volatility burst after sideways action
This leans bearish (because of the descending highs & flat-ish support), but the final signal will be whichever side breaks with volume
The consolidation isn’t bullish (yet) because it’s drifting against the prior impulse down
It's a bull flag nested inside a bigger bear flag
It's a setup that needs confirmation, so bullish in theory, but the market still has to “vote” with price + volume
If you view the current consolidation as a bull flag, you’re keying off the last impulse up ($559-$572)
If you view it as a bear flag, you’re keying off the last dominant leg down ($583-$559)
That last green bar is encouraging for bulls, but overall the consolidation volume looks like it’s contracting (fits both a flag & a bear retrace)
The decisive clue will be whether volume expands on the breakout/breakdown
Puts
Watch for rejection at $571 with fading volume
Calls
Watch for strong volume push above $572, targeting ~$578
1. Volume
Buyers came in strong on the last green bar, but for a sustained push through $571, should see rising buy volume
2. Structure
If price fails at $571 & volume fades, it could roll over to test $565-$560
If buyers push cleanly above $572 with conviction, then the upper gap $574–$578 comes into play as the next target
If sellers defend $571 again, odds favor a breakdown toward $560
If volume surges & $571 breaks, bulls have a clean magnet up to $578–$582
QQQ Potential Bearish ResolutionThe white volume line has been fading during the climb inside the wedge
That’s typical of an exhaustion rally inside an ascending broadening wedge where price pushes higher on weaker participation
The last push up showed a small bounce in volume, but not a breakout-level surge
For a wedge, this usually suggests the rally is running out of gas rather than building strength
Broadening wedges often end with a volume pickup on the breakdown, not on the way up
If we see that white line spike while price loses the wedge bottom, that would be a strong bearish confirmation
Conversely, if volume expands while breaking above $573–$574, it would invalidate the bearish read & confirm strength instead
So, right now volume is consistent with a potential bearish resolution
QQQ Potential Inflection PointSymmetrical triangle = compression where buyers keep stepping in higher, but sellers cap at lower levels
Often a continuation pattern, but it can break either way depending on volume + macro drivers
MACD just had a bearish cross earlier, but it’s trying to curl back up which suggests indecision & matches the triangle
RSI is holding mid-zone (~45) - not oversold, not overbought, again, neutral compression
In a proper symmetrical triangle, volume should decline as the pattern compresses
This shows traders waiting, fewer willing to commit inside the chop
That looks normal here (quieter trading into late August)
Volume must expand; otherwise it’s just a fake-out; ideally, RSI also breaks under ~40 & MACD diverges down
If price falls back inside the triangle on weak volume, it’s a false move
If price reclaims the ascending line quickly, it’s a bear trap
If the breakout candle volume is ≥150% of average, that’s confirmation
If price moves but volume stays weak, expect a possible reversal
Watch the first 15–30 min of volume after the break
If it’s a strong surge, odds favor continuation
If volume fades and price chops back inside the triangle, it’s likely a fake-out
Price broke down through the ascending support trendline around ~$572, currently testing $570
Volume expanded on the breakdown candle which adds credibility to the move
If follow-through comes with continued above-average volume, it confirms the downside break
Triangle height is ~24 points (from ~$583 high to ~$559 low), so $570 – $24 = ~$546 (aligns with prior support from mid-August)
If volume continues to stay above 1.3M baseline & Tuesday closes weak, expect sellers to aim for ~$558 first (previous swing low) & then the measured move (~$546)
Direction = which line breaks (up/down)
Strength = whether volume surges beyond normal
Bulls need a fast reclaim of $572–$573 on strong volume; otherwise, bears keep control
September Collapse in QQQAfter the April Tariff collapse, the index rose significantly off of the bottom and blew right past prior highs. There is a need to back-test to the $540 range. Further, which the government taking fascist equity positions in publicly traded equities and threatening the independence of the federal reserve, there are black swans looming everywhere. Also, tariffs will soon start impacting inflation, just as cracks are forming in the job market. However, can you really rely on the data since the head of BLS was fired for telling the truth about jobs?
QQQ Breakout, Continuation, or CorrectionSupport levels are far below current price, but they anchor downside risk if a true bear phase begins
Clear $585 with an upside target $600–$625 (aligns with R2)
Hold between $568–$585, market consolidates until macro data (jobs, CPI, Fed)
Weekly close back below R1 ($568) opens a slide to $540 & maybe toward $482 if selling accelerates
QQQ Today’s Rally ≠ Bullish BreakoutToday’s rally into resistance doesn’t cancel the bearish structure - it just tested the ceiling again, like the ball bouncing off the ceiling one more time
Price bounced, yes, but it stopped right at the descending trendline and supply zone
Until QQQ clears $577–$580 on volume, this is just another lower high
RSI still under 60 on the daily
MACD still bearish crossover
Bearish setups need bounces since sellers actually want rallies into supply
Today’s move just brought price back to the spot where bears previously took control
The deciding factor is whether tomorrow’s NFP release causes a breakout above $580 (bullish) or a breakdown below $562 (bearish)
Descending triangles usually resolve downward (break of the flat base)
A clean daily close <$562 would trigger measured move targets
Until $562 breaks on volume, it’s still just compression
Sometimes triangles fake down, trap shorts & rip higher (especially with macro catalysts like NFP)
If $576 rejects, short to $562–$558
If $577–$580 breaks (bulls win), step aside or flip long toward $583+
The Fib retracements line up neatly,
50% = $571.39
61.8% = $568.59 (sits right inside that shaded demand area)
78.6% = $564.61 & 82.6% = $563.67 (exactly where buyers defended)
100% = $559.54
This layering creates a ladder of potential supports, but also a measured path for shorts
The 1, 2 & 3 path into $559–$560 matches the 100% extension of the prior move
This is where measured move & Fibonacci confluence meet
Bears could take profit on the way down at $568.5 to $564.5 & $560
If $559 breaks with volume, extension opens toward $547 (200d SMA) which would be the larger “unwinding” target
Invalidation is simple, if daily close >$577–$580 trendline
While in-play, each Fib level gives you a chance to trail stops down
Trendline + Supply Zone + Symmetry + Fibonacci = high-probability short setup
Price = supply zone/descending trendline
RSI = overbought on the 15m & below the midline slope & capped under 60 on the daily
That’s a sign of weak momentum - each bounce fizzles out earlier
The RSI trendline itself is descending, which mirrors price
MACD = potentially topping on the 15m & still bearish crossover on the daily with it's histogram contracting slightly, so momentum is still in bear mode, with only a weak attempt at recovery
Momentum: RSI + MACD both confirm sellers are in control of the bigger picture
If NFP or another catalyst sends QQQ through $577–$580, watch for RSI breaking above 60 (momentum shift) & MACD histogram flipping positive with a bullish cross
That would negate the bearish triangle & turn this into a breakout squeeze toward $583+
QQQ Read on the CandlesToday’s long red candle shows strong rejection, high conviction selling
Today’s 4H bounce at the center band looks more like technical support hold, not yet bullish reversal
So short-term the market is testing balance at $570
If it loses $570, downside continuation is favored
If it recaptures $576 quickly, squeeze potential kicks in
Trigger to watch is a daily close under $568, or weakness that can’t reclaim $570
USFA lights out Macro TOP USFA
if they dont rug it to its fullest with a crazy blackswan
there should be
a serious deadcat at 0,333 attempting to break the BF
around 0,444
If they decide not to break ATH before
christmas palindrom anniversary..
yes the palindrom is exactly on
christmas eve lol
its probably
byebye USA
@Hanslanda369
9/4/25 - $qqq - How i'm positioned ep 39/4/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:QQQ
How i'm positioned ep 3
- it's hard not to notice the q's and the spy's are about 50 bps away from a gap fill
- while i'm a strong believer in the efficient market hypothesis (lol - i'm kidding), with googl's timely headline driving risk higher, today's whatever bid getting bid and "rate cuts" as a known known driving "narrative" bid... it all just feels so roll-over-y
- lulu tn just basically confirms... besides having ms sweeney providing green dillys across basement dwelling "portfolios"... the consumer is, has been, and will be cooked like a road kill goose... and rate cuts won't help
- even my NYSE:ONON feels like something i need to manage more lightly.
- it. is. just. hard. to. own. anything.
so i just took down risk a lot.
i'm about 30% cash. tempted to get to 35 or 40%
- still packing a solid 55% obtc, but well hedged w/ ibit puts (as i've described)
- onon leaps at 5% at 3-1 (but honestly it's probably too big)
- smlr to play the mstr headline, but it's honestly just an obtc/ mnav arb exercise w/ shorter term triggers and allows me to keep risk on exposure to btc while managing cash
- nxt still a staple, but it's only 5% of the portfolio at 2-1 leverage (so 10% gross). feels like the only one i have confidence in, but it's performed lol. *don't cut winners, V*
so i draw out some tea leaves green lines not as a prediction but as a thesis for what i think could be a path given liquidity constraints and how rate cuts won't immediately help this.
the memes are bearish divergence all over. correlation 1. these things v likely to trigger leverage liquidations all over on the way down. i think funds might be (and should be) willing to short these too which could amplify the tape.
this all just feels like we're in a seasonal wtf is going on.
hard to own anything, even btc unhedged.
20% ytd and always above 0% still feels "good" but has been too much lift and the juice for the squeeze is like hitting a hawt gurl pilates after hour passion project establishment in LA... $20 bucks for the instagram photo. too many ppl posting PnL gainz is exhausting and a sign.
all i'm saying is... make sure you know what you own. you are taking note of all the strangeness around. acknowledge liquidity conditions are not loose and rate cuts won't immediately help (rates are high! people are cooked! we need rates to BURN to really boost liquidity).
finally. remember - bankers like to pay themselves one more time into YE. don't become their exit liquidity here and also their source of assets toward the dippity do dah.
hand sitting feels smart.
V
QQQ Battlefield Map1. Immediate Support Holds (~55%)
QQQ consolidates above current levels
A push above $583.32 (recent high) would confirm bullish continuation
$589–$590 or retest of envelope top/channel resistance
$600 is a round-number magnet & could trigger breakout momentum
Extension to $607–$610, based on measured move from the last swing
Biggest shelf (high-volume node) is $565–$575
This matches where QQQ has been consolidating with lots of buyers & sellers
2. Break Below $560s (~35%)
Signals loss of short-term momentum
Eyes turn toward $540 (23.6% Fib) - first real downside test
Major support in the area of $529–$540
100d SMA ($529) + Fib ($540) is a critical test
Bounces & dip-buyers defend trend
Failure & trend weakens significantly
Secondary shelf at $520–$530 perfectly lines up with Fib 38.2% ($514) & 100d SMA
Low-volume gap at $545–$555
If QQQ breaks under $565, it can slide fast into this pocket before stabilizing at $540/$530
3. Deeper Downside (~10% - unless macro shock)
$493 (50% Fib) is midpoint retrace, strong demand area (if market turns risk-off, this is the magnet )
$472 (61.8% Fib) is the golden ratio area of support
If this breaks, trend structure flips bearish with risk toward $440–$433
$BTC 4-Year Cycle Is NOT Dead According to $QQQ $SPXIt’s really weird cause everyone keeps telling me the ₿itcoin 4-year cycle is dead yet Nasdaq and S&P 500 follow nearly the exact same pattern with cycle lows 🤓
It’s almost as-if monetary and fiscal policy creates this boom and bust cycle every 4-years 🤔
Question for the “this time is different people”….
Will NASDAQ:QQQ and SP:SPX not have similar bear markets as we’ve seen in the past along with CRYPTOCAP:BTC ?
Is September For the Bears?QQQ CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! stock market Forecast
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QQQ LongLooking at QQQ on the 15-minute chart, the broader market structure has shifted from bearish to more balanced after a deep selloff earlier in the month. The sharp decline created a series of lower lows until buyers stepped in aggressively around 560, forming a clear Change of Character (CHoCH) as the downtrend stalled. Since then, the structure has transitioned into higher lows, with price now pushing back toward prior supply levels. The most recent rally suggests buyers have regained momentum, though the major Break of Structure (BOS) needed to confirm a full trend reversal would come above 583.32.
The key supply zones sit between 576–578 and higher up at 580–582, both of which previously sent price lower with strong rejections. These are significant resistance areas where sellers showed control, and they remain strong supply zones until decisively broken. On the demand side, the 570–571 region has proven itself as a solid base, where buyers stepped in with strength on multiple retests. Deeper demand sits closer to 561–563, which sparked the strongest bullish reaction, making it the most reliable support zone if tested again.
Within the marked region, price is pressing into the 576 supply, showing a small pause but not yet a full rejection. The price action suggests buyers may allow a shallow pullback toward 572–573 before attempting another push into the 577–580 zone. If demand holds on that pullback, continuation higher into the upper supply looks likely. However, if 570 is lost, that would be a sign of weakness and could shift the short-term bias back toward sellers.
Trade bias: Short-term bullish
Expected direction: A continuation higher into 577–580 supply, possibly after a shallow pullback
Invalidation level: A decisive break below 570 demand would flip the bias bearish
Momentum condition: Buyers currently hold the edge, with clean higher lows and strong candles on impulses
Price behavior: Consolidation under supply, signaling accumulation before the next test higher
QQQ Pure LottoMomentum indicators (like stoch/RSI) are mid-range, so still room either way
The dominant developing pattern is an ascending triangle under $580
That favors a bullish breakout if buyers hold $574–$575
If ~$580 fails again, it flips into a short-term pullback
What we’ve seen since mid-August looks more like a round bottom recovery than an upside-down “U”
The “handle-like” action under $580 is tight & flat, not sloping down
That aligns more with an ascending triangle (bullish) than an inverted cup & handle (bearish)
If this were a true inverted cup & handle, expect a weak “handle” bounce that fails near resistance before rolling over
However, the bounce off $559 hasn’t been shallow; instead, price has climbed into a rising channel
That channel is more characteristic of a bearish rising wedge than a handle
Rising wedges often resolve lower, but they do climb higher first, sometimes to retest prior resistance ($580–$583)
A close above $583 on volume invalidates the bear case
Negates the “cup” idea & confirms a breakout
A breakdown of the rising wedge (below ~$572 then $568)
Aligns with the inverted cup & handle thesis and target ~$559
Right now, a bearish wedge inside the potential inverted cup & handle
If it breaks down, it validates the bearish case
If it powers through $583, it flips back to bullish continuation
Trading a bearish setup inside an uptrend context
Inverted cup + wedge is bearish, but bulls still have a chance until $583 is rejected
Think of 583 as the “line in the sand”
1. Bearish Case (~55% probability)
Head & Shoulders + rising wedge
Failure to break/close above $583
Target $568 (neckline)
If sellers press, $550–$555 with a full measured move to ~$532, but may need a macro shock to hit
2. Bullish Case (≈40% probability)
Strong breakout & hold above $583
Squeeze toward $590 (prior resistance)
If momentum + AI narrative revives, $605–$607
Would represent a sentiment shift
3. Neutral/Chop (≈5% probability)
Sideways consolidation $570–$580
Economic data this week comes mixed results in no conviction
$583 is the decision point & $568 is the neckline where bears are in control
NVDA earnings reaction + economic data (jobs, inflation)
If rally is on weak volume, likely a bull trap
The market leans bearish unless bulls can decisively close >$583
QQQ Bearish vs Bullish Continuation A bull flag needs 3 key ingredients
1. Flagpole (strong impulsive move up)
• QQQ ran from ~$563 (5 Aug) to ~$583 (14 Aug)
2. Flag (controlled consolidation)
• The consolidation after 14 Aug hasn’t just been a tight downward drift; instead, QQQ dropped sharply to ~$563 (not shallow, that’s a full retrace)
• Bounced, but then chopped sideways inside a descending channel
• It looks more like a bearish channel than a neat flag that’s hugging the 50% retrace level
3. Volume & structure
• In a bull flag, you want volume drying up during the pullback
• The selling volume stayed heavy at times
• The “flag” portion is wider, choppier & longer in time than a bull flag (which is usually 1/3 the length of the pole)
This pattern is flag-like, but it leans closer to a descending channel/consolidation than a bull flag
• If bulls can break $575 on rising volume, it becomes a flag breakout
• If QQQ slips under $568, then it invalidates the bull flag & resolves bearish (a continuation of the down-channel)
It can be a bull flag, but right now it’s an ambiguous consolidation that will only prove itself with a breakout over $575
• If QQQ breaks $575 with conviction, the projected target = $583 + $20 = ~$603
QQQ Volatility Squeeze Ahead?A decisive break & close below $556 would confirm this bearish move,
$532–$529
Head at ~$583
Neckline at ~$556 sloping upward which tends to delay confirmation, but breakdowns can be sharper if they do occur
(Head - Neckline) = ~27 points, so the measured move is ~$556 – $27 = ~$529
If QQQ closes back above $575, the right shoulder fails & we see continuation of the uptrend
QQQ The Target Is DOWN! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for QQQ is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 572.02
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 567.03
My Stop Loss - 574.78
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK