Stock Market Forecast | TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META MSFTStock Market Forecast | CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! SPY QQQ
Mag 7 Forecast | NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA AAPL AMZN META MSFT GOOG
SPY trade ideas
SPY to continue fallingSPY reached a top (resistance) fork line and started to fall. Based on this I entered long on VIX on July 28, when VIX was at its lowest point. I expect this fall of the market to continue.
SPY bears finally show up. Here are my targetsLong term charts still look perfectly fine, and I'm not interested in fighting bears on the first day they show up in months. Here are the targets I'm looking at to find potential support
FIBO touch and goPretty violent last couple of days in July, but I honestly think it might be over for now. Price action couldn't break past .38 fibo retracement. If I'm right we could see continuation of uptrend in coming weeks.
SPY: I think dollar milkshake is brewing, buying for long term📉 SPY Daily Breakdown – Aug 1, 2025 | VolanX Observations
🧠 Bot failed today, but the market taught more than any trade could have. Sitting out gave me the clarity to reassess structure and edge.
🔍 Market Structure Update:
Gap Down from Premium Zone: Today’s price action rejected the weak high and created a clean daily gap — signaling potential distribution at the top.
ORB (15-min) marked and ready: Likely to be retested on Monday. If price rallies into this zone and rejects, that’s where I’ll look for short entries.
Friday Bearish Close Rule: Statistically, when Friday closes red with strong momentum, Monday tends to follow — especially after a gap-down open.
🧭 Big Picture Outlook:
Liquidity Zones Below:
600 → First institutional reaction zone.
580 → Deeper demand and equilibrium area from previous consolidation.
Dollar Milkshake Brewing: Strong USD thesis could pressure equities short-term. This aligns with potential flow into defensives and out of high beta.
Long-Term Bias: Watching for deep discounts. If price moves into high-value demand zones, I’ll accumulate for the long haul — buying fear when it's priced in.
📌 What I’m Watching Next Week:
Monday open – will we see Gap & Go or a Gap Fill + Fade?
Reaction to ORB zone.
Volatility behavior and volume footprint in the first 90 minutes.
🔻 No trades today due to a bot error, but ironically, that gave me better vision. Sometimes, the best trades are the ones you don’t take.
VolanX Protocol engaged. Standing by.
short IdeaLooking at the hourly chart, and I am noticing a head and shoulders build up.
day trade idea: 635 entry 637 stop 630 profit target
swing trade idea: short above 630 long below
S&P 500 Futures – Trendline Breach + AI Forecast Signals Major C📉 S&P 500 Futures – Trendline Breach + AI Forecast Signals Major Correction
VolanX Risk Engine Flags High Probability Downside
🧠 Narrative:
Markets have enjoyed a powerful uptrend off the March lows, but the structure is showing signs of exhaustion.
The ascending trendline—untouched for over two months—has now been breached.
Fibonacci levels cluster below current price, with critical demand at:
6319.25 (immediate test zone)
6179.25 (0.618 retrace)
5964.75 (macro support / VolanX institutional target)
Meanwhile, VolanX Protocol's predictive engine has shifted to a "Strong Sell" with a projected correction path clearly outlined. The 30-day price forecast (shown in red) leans toward a mean reversion toward 5842.12 by late August.
📊 Institutional Trade Plan (VolanX DSS):
Entry Zone: 6360-6380 (Confirmed breakdown retest)
Target 1: 6179.25
Target 2: 5964.75
Final Target: 5842.12
Invalidation: Close above 6480 (new highs with strength)
🔎 Risk/Reward: 3.4+
📈 Trend Deviation: 7.4%
📉 Bearish Conviction: 84.1%
📌 Key Insights:
Breakdown below trendline confirms shift in control to bears
Institutional models anticipate volatility-led selloff
Major liquidity rests below 6200 and 5960 zones
This is not the time to chase highs—risk is asymmetric
🔮 VolanX Opinion:
“Volatility expansion is near. Institutional capital is likely rotating out of risk. The squeeze has passed; now the trapdoor may open.”
This is where preparation outperforms prediction. Execute with risk logic, not emotion.
📚 #SNP500 #ESFutures #SPX #MacroTrading #SmartMoney #InstitutionalFlow #TrendReversal #Volatility #LiquiditySweep #FibonacciLevels #VolanX #AITrading #EminiFutures #WaverVanir #QuantStrategy #TechnicalAnalysis #Forecast #TradingView
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets
This is how last night’s members chart played out and it was amazing. We opened at the top of the trading range and all of the spreads at the top paid as we dropped back to the 30in 200MA
$SPY: Mapping Scenarios🏛️ Research Notes
Fractal Corridors
Shows recursive formations which indicates a full fractal cycle.
The angles of decline are parallel which is important for potential buildup.
To map a cycle we'd need to apply fib channel to the opposite direction In a way this should be sufficient to cover the scenarios of nearest future if we were to use bar patterns to validate a structure.
These are examples of historic progressions with similar growth patterns (composite sub-cycles):
This explains most elements present in interactive chart.
$UVXY Signaling Trouble — $SPY Could Drop 10%+ In this video, I discuss why August/September could bring serious downside for the market, despite my long-term bullish stance.
Right now, SPY is trading around $632, but I have a downside target of $573 in the short term. If we get volume beneath $573 — especially a break below the daily EMA — SPY could drop quickly, with a potential fall all the way to $480 in the coming weeks/months.
At the same time, UVXY is signaling a correction for the overall market after rallying from the low's of April. I have a target of $30 and when UVXY starts to move, it often reflects sharp market corrections — and the setup is beginning to mirror that now.
Despite this short-term bearish outlook, I want to make it clear: I am very bullish long term. Any 10–20% correction will be a major buying opportunity for me. I'm watching key levels closely and preparing to take advantage when the market overreacts.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 1, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 1, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
📦 U.S. Imposes New Tariffs as Deadline Passes
Fresh tariffs rolled out on August 1 hitting major exporters: 25% on Indian goods, 20% on Taiwan, 19% on Thailand, and 15% on South Korea. Canadas tariff elevated to 35%, though Mexico got extra negotiation time. Global equity markets slipped modestly, led by declines in Asia-Pacific regions. AMEX:SPY futures also eased on mounting geopolitical and trade pressures.
🏦 Fed Uncertainty Mounts Despite Calm GDP
Despite robust Q2 GDP growth and a hold on interest rates this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell faced growing unrest. Comments acknowledged downside labor risk amid trade uncertainty—investors are now assigning just a 39% chance of a rate cut in September.
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Friday, August 1:
8:30 AM ET – Nonfarm Payrolls (July):
Payrolls rose by 106,000, less than June’s 147,000 but still positive. Wage growth slowed, easing inflation concerns slightly.
8:30 AM ET – Unemployment Rate:
Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, from 4.1% in June—reflecting modest labor softness.
8:30 AM ET – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM):
Wages rose +0.2%, down from +0.4% in June, signaling wage pressure easing.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #jobs #Fed #tariffs #inflation #technicalanalysis
THE STOCK MARKET IS BULLISH BUT NEEDS A SMALL CORRECTIONIn this video, we look at the weekly chart of the S&P 500 to determine if a correction is near and spoiler alert. Yes, it is. Here's what happens.
Next Leg down startingThe S&P 500 has been trading inside this rising channel for the last 3 and a half years. As you can see it has bounced off the bottom of the rising channel 4 different times and it is now back at the top of the channel. Price action gapped above the channel overnight but immediately sold off pre-market back inside the channel and completely reversed the move despite strong earnings from MSFT and META. This is very bearish and signals a move back down to the bottom of the channel once again and given that its already bounced off the bottom of the channel 4 different times, a 5th hit would have a high probability of breaking below the channel, which I would give a greater than 70% probability of playing out. If this happens, we will see much lower prices in this coming bear market.
$SPY – FOMC Risk Window: AI Predicts Downside Drift📅 Forecast Window: July 30 – August 30, 2025
📡 Powered by VolanX Protocol v3.0 | WaverVanir DSS
🏛️ MACRO SETUP – JULY 31 FOMC:
🏦 Fed Funds Rate: 5.50% (expected hold)
🧊 Inflation: Cooling but sticky (CPI ~3.2%, PCE ~2.6%)
💼 Labor Market: Slowing but not collapsing
📈 CME FedWatch: 91% odds of no hike, but tone may be hawkish
🧠 Key Risk: Liquidity compression or prolonged pause = risk-off conditions
🧠 VOLANX PROTOCOL FORECAST (30-Day):
🔸 Current Price: $636.29
🔹 AI Target: $627.46 (−1.4%)
🟠 Signal: HOLD
🧮 Direction Accuracy: 85.5%
⚠️ Model Confidence: −2.049 (bearish drift)
📊 Volatility Forecast: Low (~1.36%) = slow bleed conditions
📉 WAVERVANIR DSS SIGNAL:
🔸 Sentiment Score: 78
🔻 15D Forecast: $630.49 (−0.8%)
🔻 30D Forecast: $616.68 (−2.9%)
📉 Bias: Mild Bearish
🛑 Signal: Hedge exposure, reduce risk, do not chase longs
🔥 OPTIONS FLOW SNAPSHOT:
🚨 $1.53M Call Sweep (645C, Aug 8) = Speculative breakout bet
📉 Multiple Put Sweeps (633–634P, Aug 4) = Institutional hedging
🟢 Mid-dated 638C/645C flows (Aug 15–22) show straddle-the-news positioning
📐 TECHNICAL ZONES TO WATCH:
📉 Support Levels:
$627 = Fib + VolanX AI Target
$616 = DSS Forecast + liquidity pivot
📈 Resistance Levels:
$639 → Gap close
$645 → Major breakout trigger (options magnet)
🕯️ Structure: Distribution bias → No clear momentum unless Fed surprises dovish
🎯 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK:
Scenario Probability SPY Reaction
🟡 Hawkish Hold 65% Pullback toward $627
⚪ Neutral Hold 25% Choppy → $639 max
🟢 Dovish Surprise 10% Spike to $645+
📌 VolanX Protocol Guidance:
"This is a defense window. AI models and options flow both suggest uncertainty, not conviction. Trim longs, hedge risk, and wait for post-FOMC confirmation."
#SPY #VolanX #WaverVanir #FOMC #MacroForecast #OptionsFlow #DSS #SMC #LiquidityTraps #SmartMoney #TradingSignals #AITrading #FederalReserve #TechEarnings #RiskWindow #HawkishFed #FedHold #MacroAI
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 31, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 31, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🏦 Fed Holds Rates — Dissent Indicates Division
The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.50%. Notably, two governors—Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman—dissented in favor of a 25 bp rate cut, underscoring internal divisions amid growing political pressure
📈 Strong Q2 Growth, But No Rate-Cut Signal
U.S. GDP expanded at a 3.0% annualized rate in Q2, rebounding sharply from Q1's contraction. Despite this, Powell emphasized persistent inflation, particularly from tariffs, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious policy stance
🛢️ Oil Climbs as Tariff Tensions Rise
Brent crude rose to ~$73.51 and WTI to ~$70.37 on fears of supply disruptions tied to President Trump’s threats of new tariffs on Russian oil and new tariffs imposed on Brazil and South Korea
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Thursday, July 31:
8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims (week ending July 26)
Initial claims rose to 222,000, up from 217,000 previously—an early gauge of labor-market trends
8:30 AM ET – Employment Cost Index (Q2)
Quarterly growth in labor costs edged lower to 0.8%, down from 0.9%—a signal of moderate wage pressures
8:30 AM ET – Personal Income (June)
Data released on household income and spending patterns—crucial for assessing consumer resilience heading into Q3
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #inflation #jobs #technicalanalysis
SPY Elliott Wave + Parallel Channel AnalysisThis chart offers a detailed Elliott Wave count for SPY (S&P 500 ETF) on the daily timeframe, combined with a structured parallel channel system to highlight key trend dynamics.
🔍 Elliott Wave Structure:
The price is currently advancing in what appears to be Wave (5) of Primary Wave ⑤, suggesting we may be in the late stages of a major impulsive cycle.
Each impulsive and corrective wave is clearly labeled, with the internal structure confirming classic Elliott Wave symmetry.
The 1.618 Fibonacci extension around $689 marks a critical upside target and potential completion zone for Wave (5).
Wave (4) held well at the lower channel boundary and completed near $480, establishing a solid base for the current advance.
📊 Channel Insights:
A system of parallel channels is applied to capture the overall trend and momentum structure.
Price is climbing toward the upper boundary of the long-term ascending channel, which has acted as dynamic resistance in previous waves.
The median lines have provided reliable support and resistance throughout the trend, making them important reference levels moving forward.
⚠️ Key Technical Levels:
Resistance: $689.44 (Wave ⑤ target at 1.618 Fib extension)
Support Zones: $609 (prior Wave (3) high), $575 (mid-channel support), and $480 (major cycle low)
A confirmed break above $690 could suggest a parabolic move, but risk of reversal grows as the upper channel is tested.
📈 Market Outlook:
SPY remains in a strong uptrend but is nearing a major confluence of wave and channel resistance.
A completed five-wave sequence would suggest the potential for a higher-degree correction, possibly leading into a Wave A/B/C scenario.
Short-term bullish bias remains valid while above $609, but watch for divergence or exhaustion signs near $689–$700.
The Current State and Future Direction Of The S&P 5006/9/24
Created By Joeseph Emanuel Dennis
Idea:
Critical area and critical moment in not only the NASDAQ but for the entire bull market otherwise we'll start a prolonged retracement or an unlikely bear market turnaround. My SPY target remains 600 based on previous positive FOMC, CPI, Job Report Data, Rate Cuts, Elections, and Current Institutional development. On the technical side, the higher high movement began at the start of 2023 my initial target was 480 and I was correct! after the September weekly retracement on SPY, we have been pushing higher despite January's negative economic data and the conflict with IRAN. The daily is set to move currently above the 20MA with the weekly bullish and the monthly extremely bullish. IMPORTANT WEEK AHEAD! the future data will determine if the bullish trend will progress onward FOMC meeting will either scare people out of the market or drive the market into a rally along with central bank stocks. My bet is bullish even though inflation is record high thanks to the Biden administration we somehow keep pushing higher makes you wonder if the positive economic data is even accurate is employment being at a record high is that a good thing? Many Americans find them selfs more with two jobs or even three jobs is that a positive thing? Underemployment is also at record highs are these post-college graduates getting the salary they deserve or are they settling with two low-wage jobs? Nonetheless, the bull market will rain on with a summer rally. I will keep watching in case something turns around the enemy isn't Jerome Powell it's the liars at the white house and the propaganda creators over at MSNBC.
Note: This goes for Bitcoin as well! 80K here we go!
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 30, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 30, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍
🧭 Fed Holds Steady Amid Uncertainty
As the FOMC enters its July 29–30 meeting, the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, even as one or two governors may dissent in favor of rate cuts amid mixed economic data. Recent strength in consumer spending contrasts with weakness in housing and construction.
🌐 U.S.–China Trade Talks Resumed in Stockholm
Talks are under way aimed at extending the tariff truce before the August 12 deadline. Both sides described progress as constructive, though analysts remain cautious on the timeline and potential outcomes.
🛢️ Oil Up / Dollar Firmer, But Risks Remain
Brent crude hit ~$72.50/barrel (+3.5%) while WTI rose to ~$69.20 on a mix of geopolitical tension (possible new Russia tariffs) and trade optimism. The U.S. dollar edged higher following the U.S.–EU trade agreement.
📈 IMF Revises Up Global Growth—but Flags Tariff Risks
The IMF raised its 2025 growth forecast to 3.0% and maintained 3.1% for 2026, citing pre-emptive consumer demand—but warned that ongoing U.S. tariffs and policy inconsistency could dampen momentum.
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Wednesday, July 30:
FOMC Rate Decision & Powell Press Conference
The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady. Powell’s remarks will be closely watched for signals on the timing of future cuts and views on inflation and labor markets.
Advance Q2 U.S. GDP Estimate
The first look at Q2 growth is expected around +1.9% YoY, potentially validating a rebound after Q1’s contraction.
June PCE & Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Index)
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Markets will monitor if core inflation remains elevated, which may reinforce policy caution.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This summary is for educational and informational purposes only—it is not financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #GDP #inflation #trade #tariffs #markets
$SPY rolling over, potentially to new lows?While I was early to the idea (like usual), still don't think the thesis will be wrong. I still believe we're going to see a large move down from here.
Yesterday's price action made me pretty confident a top was in (TBD). We had positive news and the market couldn't rally on that positive news and we ended up closing at the lows -- indicating to me there's no more buyers.
Today we have treasuries, the dollar and volatility all rallying while equities selloff, a classic risk off signal. You also have crypto selling off too.
I think we see a large risk off move from here on out, the target is the $440 area (extreme down to $400), but if we find support at one of the other levels above that, there's potential for us to rally from there.
Will have to see how price action plays out over the coming weeks.
SPY : back near the top of its upward channelSPY is back near the top of its upward channel, a strong resistance.
Every time this happened since 2011, markets dropped 10–27%.
Still trending up, but this setup doesn’t look great.
Since the April low, SPY is up 30%, short-term trend is stretched and vulnerable.
Market Outlook: Bulls are still in control, but be defensive.At theses levels don't let your guard down. I could see us pulling back next week, meanwhile we may continue to stay above the 10-EMA for now.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 29, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 29, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍
U.S.–EU Trade Deal Sparks Optimism
The U.S. and EU signed a trade framework allowing a 15% tariff rate on most EU imports, averting harsher penalties. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at fresh record highs, supported by upbeat tech earnings sentiment—Tesla advanced on a new $16.5B AI chip deal with Samsung—while U.S.–China trade talks resume in Stockholm.
Fed Likely to Hold Rates; Political Pressure Mounts
The Fed is expected to leave its benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.50% at the July 29–30 FOMC meeting. Chair Powell faces growing political pressure from President Trump to cut rates and concerns about central bank independence remain elevated.
Trade Talks Extension to Avoid Tariff Hike Deadline
The August 1 tariff deadline looms. Markets are watching to see if trade deals with China, Canada, and the EU extend the pause or risk new tariffs. Volume in AI/chip stocks and industrials reflects sensitivity to trade developments.
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Tuesday, July 29
FOMC Meeting Begins — All eyes on Fed rate decision and updated projections.
GDP (Advance Q2 Estimate) — Expected around +1.9% on signs of economic rebound.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This summary is for educational and informational purposes only—it is not financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #trade #tariffs #PCE #jobs #technicalanalysis
SPY Weekly Chart: Rising Wedge Signals Imminent PullbackSPY Weekly Chart Overview (Current Price: ~637)
🧭 Context:
Indicators: TEMA (13/21/50) & RSI (14)
Price is extended, RSI near overbought (65.87), and forming a rising wedge — a bearish pattern.
🔻 Bearish Setup: Rising wedge signals possible reversal.
Momentum weakening despite higher highs.
Price extended above TEMA — a 600–610 pullback looks likely.
📊 Key Levels:Resistance: 672
Support: 611–600 → 578 → 488
Break below 600 could trigger broad downside.
🟢 Bullish Case:
Breakout above 672 with volume = momentum continuation (AI/FOMO driven).
🎯 Conclusion:
SPY is technically stretched. Risk/reward favors caution.
Watch for pullback to 600–610
