Trade ideas
EPISODE 4/11: US HEALTH CARE XLV SECTOR-TA(TREND ANALYSIS) 2019'EPISODE 4/11: US HEALTH CARE(XLV) SECTOR Technical Analysis - 16th of July 2019.
There is really not much to say. Profits in the health care sector are very reliable on the cycle. Since Trump took office, the cycle extended, and hence it formed a channel as noted in the analysis.
One major risk that has always affected the health care sector is regulation and political pressures . In the upcoming 2020 election, if the Democrats(pro-regulation) take office, there might be major implications to the health care sector.
In any case, 50 Quarterly/200 Monthly MA(Orange line) would be the Long-term Supports , in case the current bullish channel breaks. Structural supports are marked with Purple squares.
This is just a brief "free" and very detailed analysis. Perhaps in the future I might form a premium group, to whose members I will provide all the details of my research.
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Check my previous episodes on the US Sectors in the links to related ideas down below .
EPISODE 3 : TECH
EPISODE 2 : ENERGY
* Full Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references- contact me.
XLV(daily). Symmetrical Triangle BO, Retest possible. RSI, OBV.XLV(daily).DT target. Symmetrical Triangle BO, Retest.
OBV confirmation.
XLV - Further UpsideI see inverse head and shoulders pattern being formed in XLV. Likelihood of further upside upon break of the neck line is higher.
High quality short against 200 daycans pec swing short from here witht he bearish engulf against 200 day as stop or wait for 5 and 10 to turn down and use those. Could be a big move coming here.
SPDR Healthcare Relative StrengthWhen SPDR Healthcare's relative strength (vs. S&P 500) and its 50MA are both above its 200MA, it signals S&P 500 is about to hit the top and drop.
When SPDR Healthcare's relative strength (vs. S&P 500) drops below its 50MA, it signals S&P 500 has bottomed out and will trend higher.
XLV recovering for SummerXLV pulled back sharply largely to do with a knee-jerk reaction to the Dems ‘Medicare for all’ (ie Europe-style government health service). Contrast this to the general Dec 2018 market collapse, and we see
- a 7.2% W1 rise
- a 50% W2 pullback
- a W3 repeating the move, and running to the 1.618 fib
The price carried on after December, but just anticipating a repeat of that move gives us an entry at 87.75 for 94.00. A 1.4% stop is comfortable (86.50) to give a 5:1 trade.
Healthcare is a typically strong summer defensive, and notably (on the daily chart), after the outlier of Dec 2018, kept in its long-term channel in the April collapse.
XLV SECTOR Wave A times 1.618 = Wave C DOWN AND IS A .666 Moving to a long net 40 to now 60% in all drugs and healthcare
XLV Cats don't die right awayXLV expecting a bounce some where here. Could push a V bottom at the 618 or flush the stops down to the ascending trend line then bounce.
#XLV Healthcare ETF-first out to activate it's head&shoulder?#XLV Healthcare ETF-first out to activate it's head&shoulder?
XLV -Wyckoff Distribution ScenarioLooks like we're facing a distribution trading range.
Double top I believe constitutes as a "Failed Rally" which would put us at Phase D.
If this is the case, then I'm expecting a major SOW to develop.
We might be
Looking for my AZPN SSRD chart... to follow.
XLV Day Trade SHORTWill health care be strong during the potential draw down in the markets?
Day traders would know what to do with this short opportunity. Longer term maybe a little down side..
It's out there so we will see..
Trade Safe
AMEX:XLV
