Here is the current spike (blue) overlaid with the Dec 2013 and Dec 2018 peaks. The current spike has slightly more peaks than the two previous ones which are very similar. If the market follows 2013, there is a chance to exit around $55k before a long slide back to about $22,700. Otherwise its the 2018 model which drops to about $14,000.
Bitcoin has routinely...
This British supermarket (consumer staple) stock is touching the 50% fib line at the same time as a neat upward tramline. It has consistently reacted to these technical indicators in the past, and of course fundamentally, is doing well out of the current crisis. It has of course already rebounded, but if it dips again, a good buy at 208, SL 198, TP 266 RR 7.
TSLA and BTCUSD Dec 17
This is TSLA, overlaid with the Bitcoin chart which was a textbook Rodrigue bubble. Suggests a final high around 1050, and then decline until it resumes trend in the 520-550 area.
This is not inconsistent with my other TSLA post which looks different as it's log scale. How about short at 1000, 10% stop, TP 500? RR 5, just a guess.
It is often difficult to closely monitor crash recoveries, as intraday data is often not available. Fortunately OANDA keep over 2 years of hourly data, so I have been able to overlay the ES futures (23h a day) price/action from the Feb 2018 crash and the final part of that in December 2018, both of similar percentages. There is a good match to both at the moment,...
FTSE 250 compared to Feb 18
Suggests a low of about 1680, recovery to 2040 then a new low in April of 1600. 20% drop is already in.
Extreme bear case where two arrows are equivalent is grey line, implies 800 !
200-week moving average is 2640. Will be a little higher each week. Currenty implies 22% drop, may well be 20% by time it is reached. Dec 19 panic exactly hit the 200W. Also very close in Jan 16.
Good news will stop this, but if there is none, there is your bottom.
The red overlay is April 2000 to July 2002, incidentally when all the noise was about Britain and joining the Euro. The match is good, will this be the future of sterling post-Brexit? Maybe $1.70 is a bit of a stretch.
All previous oversold conditions results in a 0.5, 0.618 or 0.786 recovery within 10 trading days. All scenarios show a recovery to 3180-3200, and then fades. Only Dec 18 shows further lows below 2850.
So for now the path is clear. It seems very unlikely that the Dec 18 option will play out.