Bearish continuation?EUR/AUD is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support, which is a swing low support.
Pivot: 1.77882
1st Support: 1.75970
1st Resistance: 1.79133
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Trade ideas
EURAUD: DowntrendKey Observations
Daily Timeframe
EMA20 is slightly lower than EMA60 and price is below both to indicate weak downtrend
However, price is also holding below a daily HTL so buying pressure also remains weak or non-existent
H1 Timeframe
Price is exiting away from the EMA band and below both EMA20 and EMA60 to indicate high probability of downside momentum
If price crosses below the ATL, that's a further indication of downside momentum
EURAUD (15m)All trades and analyses presented here are based on the **Smart Money Concept (SMC)**.
These analyses reflect only my personal perspective on market structure and price behavior, with charts clearly illustrating the details. The main purpose of sharing this content is strictly for **educational purposes** and to exchange personal experiences in trading.
⚠️ **Disclaimer:**
This content does not constitute financial advice, investment signals, or any guarantee of profitability. Financial markets inherently involve risk, and losses are possible. Each individual is fully responsible for their own trading decisions and outcomes. It is strongly recommended to consult with licensed financial advisors before making any investment decisions.
EURAUD corrective pullback support at 1.7765The EURAUD remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the sideways consolidation.
Support Zone: 1.7765 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 1.7765 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
1.7800 – initial resistance
1.7840 – psychological and structural level
1.7880 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 1.7765 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
1.7640 – minor support
1.7617 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the EURAUD holds above 1.7765. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
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EURAUD – 1:2 Intraday SetupPrice has shown a clear break of the M15 RBD (Rally–Base–Drop) structure, followed by the creation of a fresh DBR (Drop–Base–Rally), signalling a potential shift in short-term order flow.
This structural transition highlights the presence of bullish intent, with buyers stepping in to absorb supply and push price higher. The new DBR now serves as the decision point for continuation, providing a clean intraday opportunity with a 1:2 risk-to-reward potential.
As long as price respects the newly formed base, the bullish narrative remains valid, targeting liquidity resting above the previous short-term highs.
EURAUD BUY SIGNAL. Don't forget about stop-loss.
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P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
EUR/AUD Ready for Another Drop? Watch 1.7500!🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders)
Euro Futures: Non-commercial longs slightly decreased (-789) while shorts increased (+2,625) → mild bearish sentiment on the Euro.
AUD Futures: Non-commercial longs increased (+1,718) while shorts surged strongly (+10,148) → clear bearish positioning on the Australian Dollar.
📌 Combined Interpretation: Mixed signals — institutional investors are trimming Euro longs while heavily increasing AUD shorts, which could sustain EUR/AUD strength in the short term despite mild Euro weakness.
🔹 FX Sentiment (retail positioning)
56% short vs 44% long.
📌 Retail slightly net short → mild contrarian signal supporting short-term upside for EUR/AUD, but not extreme enough to indicate a reversal.
🔹 Seasonality
October is historically neutral to slightly bullish for the Australian Dollar, suggesting potential resilience.
However, Euro tends to gain modestly into late Q4, often supported by defensive flows.
📌 Seasonal bias leans slightly bearish for EUR/AUD in October, but momentum remains fragile and can easily flip on macro catalysts.
🔹 Price Action
EUR/AUD rejected from the 1.7920–1.7950 supply zone, confirming a descending channel structure.
Price bounced from the local support around 1.7660–1.7680, with sellers still in control below the upper trendline.
RSI neutral, showing potential for continuation lower after a minor corrective pullback.
Key downside target remains at 1.7500, followed by 1.7400 extension if momentum persists.
Bullish invalidation only above 1.7930, which would confirm a breakout from the descending channel.
🔹 Trading Outlook
Main Bias: Bearish short-term, supported by technical rejection and macro weakness in the Euro.
Contrarian Risk: Slightly short retail exposure could trigger a corrective bounce before the next leg down.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.7800 / 1.7930
Support: 1.7600 / 1.7500 / 1.7400
EUR-AUD Local Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
EURAUD taps into the horizontal supply area, showing a clear bearish displacement as Smart Money seeks to rebalance inefficiency. A retest of the zone is expected before continuation lower. Time Frame 3H.
Sell!
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AUDJPY | BullishHTF: Price remains bullish, consistently breaking previous highs. After taking out sell-side liquidity (SSL), price retraced into a major order block, showing intent for continuation to the upside.
MTF: A clear CHoCH formed after price took out the major lower high (LH), followed by another SSL sweep before mitigating the mid-level OB — confirming higher-timeframe alignment.
LTF: Execution phase in play. All timeframes have now confirmed top-down structure, with price reacting from refined OB zones. Preparing for a bullish strike toward internal and external highs.
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EUR/AUD SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
EUR/AUD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 1.776
Target Level: 1.771
Stop Loss: 1.780
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 2h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Could we see a bearish drop?EUR/AUD is reacting off the resistance level, which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take rpofit.
Entry: 1.77910
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.79102
Why we like it:
There is a multi-swing high resistance level.
Take profit: 1.76008
Why we like it:
There is a swing low support.
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EURAUD - Distribution completePreliminary Supply : Institutions start unloading shares to retail (spike in volume)
Buying Climax : Usually on a good news (AUD weaker than expected employment data) Instituions start unloading shares to public without depressing the price.
Secondary Test : On depressing volume as retail is pushing the price.
Secondary Test as Upthrust : On lower volume, collecting stop orders.
Sign of Weakness : On increased selling volume, supply is now dominant.
Upthrust after Distribution : Final test and final liquidity grabs before mark-down
Last point of Supply : Feeble rally, low volume, last step before mark-down.
RBA September 2025: Hawkish Tilt vs August - Shorted EURAUDNow that we have the 30 Sept 2025 RBA statement, here’s a side-by-side comparison with the prior (August) statement, highlighting the specific new remarks, data changes, and tone shifts that matter for markets in the short term.
Key Differences: September vs August
Inflation
August: Inflation had eased into the 2–3% band, with underlying momentum lower, helped by rebates and easing pressures.
September: “The decline in underlying inflation has slowed… recent data suggest Q3 inflation may be higher than expected.”
🔹 New: Clearer warning that disinflation is stalling, with upside surprise risk. This is a hawkish tilt, raising doubt about how quickly the RBA will cut again.
Domestic demand & growth
August: Growth outlook was subdued, public demand dominant, consumption weak, risks tilted to downside.
September: “Private demand is recovering… private consumption is picking up as real household incomes rise… housing market is strengthening.”
🔹 New: Stronger domestic recovery narrative. This is a shift away from a purely dovish, weak-growth picture, suggesting easing might not need to be as aggressive.
Labor market
August: Labor conditions softening somewhat, unemployment ~4.3%, some easing in demand.
September: “Labor market conditions broadly steady… unemployment unchanged at 4.2%, underutilization low… wages growth has eased, but productivity weak and unit labor costs high.”
🔹 New: Balanced message — employment growth slowed, but overall labor market remains tight. The mention of unit labor costs high is a hawkish insertion, as it points to sticky wage-price dynamics.
Global risks
August: Emphasized uncertainty, trade headwinds, geopolitical risks, downside to global demand.
September: “More clarity on US tariffs — extreme outcomes avoided, but still adverse effect expected… geopolitical risks remain.”
🔹 New: Slightly more optimistic (less extreme trade risks), but still cautious. Market read: less urgent downside risk, neutral for AUD.
Policy stance / guidance
August: Dovish, emphasized “data dependency,” readiness to act, conditional forward guidance.
September: “Signs that demand is recovering, inflation may be persistent in some areas, labor market stable… appropriate to remain cautious… policy well placed to respond if needed.”
🔹 New: Stronger caution against rushing into more cuts. Less dovish than before, reinforcing a wait-and-see bias.
Tone shift: Compared to August, the September statement is less dovish. It highlights stronger domestic demand, slower disinflation, and sticky unit labor costs.
Implication: This reduces near-term probability of another immediate cut. Markets may pare back November cut expectations slightly.
AUD reaction: Near term (this week and next), AUD likely supported on dips, especially if global risk sentiment doesn’t collapse. AUD currency crosses may see AUD outperformance, while AUDUSD may remain also supported but also more dependent on USD drivers.
Unless we see a major surprise from U.S. Jobs data I will remain short with minimum target at 1.7593
If you have any questions don't hesitate to drop them in the comments below.
EURAUD: Bullish Continuation is Expected! Here is Why:
Remember that we can not, and should not impose our will on the market but rather listen to its whims and make profit by following it. And thus shall be done today on the EURAUD pair which is likely to be pushed up by the bulls so we will buy!
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EUR/AUD BEARS ARE STRONG HERE|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
Bearish trend on EUR/AUD, defined by the red colour of the last week candle combined with the fact the pair is overbought based on the BB upper band proximity, makes me expect a bearish rebound from the resistance line above and a retest of the local target below at 1.778.
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