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Australia 200 CFDAustralia 200 CFDAustralia 200 CFD

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ASX to continue in the upward move?AU200AUD - 24h expiry Short term bias has turned positive. The primary trend remains bullish. 8910 has been pivotal. 20 1day EMA is at 8905. Dip buying offers good risk/reward. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. We look to Buy at 8913 (stop at 8863) Our profit targets will be 9063 and 9093 Resistance: 9011 / 9046 / 9075 Support: 9842 / 8910 / 8829 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:AU200AUDLong
by OANDA
AUS200/ASX200 - RETEST OLD HIGH, TIME FOR A SHORTTeam , last week we short the AUS200 at this level and it drop almost 200 points But we pocket at 9000 ranges only Time to reshort at 9110-9120 ranges STOP LOSS at 9160 Target 1 at 9080-67 - take partial and bring stop loss to BE Target 2 at 9032-26 NOTE: The DOW rate announce next week, and Chinese tariff apply on 1st of November. Trump is meeting Xi next two weeks at South Korean.. market will likely volatile. LETS GO - KILL THE BEAST
PEPPERSTONE:AUS200Short
by ActiveTraderRoom
ASX Weekly Market Wrap: XJO, LYC, CBA, BHP, CSL, ANZ, WDS, EOSIn this week’s market analysis of the Australian market , we break down key price movements and trends across the #ASX, with a close look at the XJO and standout stocks like Lynas Rare Earths (#LYC), Commonwealth Bank (#CBA), BHP Group (#BHP), CSL Limited (#CSL), ANZ Bank (#ANZ), Woodside (#WDS), and EOS (#EOS). We explore current momentum, trend direction, and price action indicators to help you understand Aussie market developments. Whether you're paper trading or keeping track of market trends, this is your essential guide for the week ahead. *Apologies for the incorrectly dated chart of 2027! We are not there yet! 😅
ASX:XJOLong
by Market_Monkey_AU
ASX200 to find buyers at previous support?ASX200 - 24h expiry Daily signals are mildly bullish. 50 1day EMA is at 8792. Short term bias has turned positive. Support is located at 8780 and should stem dips to this area. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. We look to Buy at 8794 (stop at 8761) Our profit targets will be 8894 and 8914 Resistance: 8835 / 8850 / 8890 Support: 8806 / 8780 / 8717 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:AU200AUDLong
by OANDA
1
Bears Feast at 8,867 - Complete Distribution Confirmed📍 To see my confluences and/or linework: Step 1: Grab chart 👉 Step 2: Unhide Group 1 in object tree 📊 Step 3: Hide and unhide specific confluences ✨ Double-click the screen to reveal RSI, MFI, CVD, and OBV indicators alongside divergence markings! 🔍 Title: 🎯 AU200: Bears Feast at 8,867 - Complete Distribution Confirmed The Market Participant Battle: Overconfident bulls who chased the falling wedge breakout from point 3 (8,720) to point 4 (8,867) have been decisively beaten by institutional bears. The volume footprint reveals the truth - despite 1.86K positive delta, price couldn't advance, confirming massive absorption by hidden sellers. This lower high at point 4 versus point 2 (8,876), combined with hidden bearish divergence across RSI/MFI/CVD and harmonic pattern completion, confirms smart money has distributed into retail buying. Price will collapse below 8,720 as trapped longs capitulate. Confluences: Confluence 1: Failed Wedge Breakout with Footprint Absorption The falling wedge from points 1-2-3 appeared bullish, but the breakout to point 4 is failing spectacularly. The last two green candles show NEGATIVE delta despite rising price. Footprint data confirms this - 434 buyers vs 359 sellers, 421 vs 283, yet price REJECTED. The wedge breakout trap is complete with institutional iceberg orders absorbing all buying. Confluence 2: Hidden Bearish Divergence Across All Indicators Price made a lower high from point 2 (8,876) to point 4 (8,867), while RSI, MFI, and CVD all made HIGHER highs. This hidden bearish divergence screams continuation. The oversold RSI/MFI readings are irrelevant - they can stay oversold for weeks in strong downtrends. Footprint delta divergence (-275 on green candle) confirms the divergence. Confluence 3: Quadruple Resistance Rejection with Volume Confirmation Point 4 perfectly rejected from: (1) 0.62 Fibonacci retracement, (2) 2nd VWAP deviation, (3) Volume Profile POC at 8,856, (4) Descending trendline from point 2, (5) Linear regression channel upper boundary. Footprint shows failed auction here with only 29-32 contracts at highs = buyer exhaustion. Confluence 4: Harmonic Pattern Triple Convergence Three bearish harmonics align: Double Top at 8,892-8,894 (neckline 8,707), Descending Triangle with flat support at 8,707, Non Star reversal pattern. Measured moves converge at 8,530. The footprint absorption at these levels confirms distribution before breakdown. Confluence 5: Bollinger Band & Volume Divergence with Delta Confirmation OBV touched upper Bollinger Band at point 4 - classic reversal. Volume declining on rally shows no conviction. Footprint reveals the truth: Total delta of -268 despite more buy orders (981 vs 821) = pure absorption. The -61, -67, -157 delta progression shows increasing selling pressure. Confluence 6: Anchored VWAP & Volume Gap Magnet VWAP anchored at point 1 shows point 4 touching the 2nd deviation - statistically significant rejection level. Volume profile shows massive gap below point 3 acting as magnet. Footprint confirms with 1.07K imbalance zone pulling price lower. Web Research Findings: - Technical Analysis: Overbought signals everywhere, resistance holding, bearish divergences multiplying - Recent News/Earnings: Premier Investments -17% profit, weak retail sector dragging sentiment - Analyst Sentiment: "Bulls exhausted at resistance," "hesitancy to push forward" - professionals turning cautious - Data Releases & Economic Calendar: RBA tomorrow unlikely to cut with inflation concerns - hawkish hold crushes bulls - Interest Rate Impact: Market overpricing cuts, reality check incoming as RBA stays restrictive longer Layman's Summary: Every single indicator screams "GET OUT!" The chart pattern shows a failed breakout (bearish), momentum indicators show exhaustion (bearish), the footprint reveals big players selling to small players (bearish), and tomorrow's central bank won't help bulls. When everything aligns bearish at resistance, that's when bears feast on trapped bulls. Machine Derived Information: - Images 1-7 (Wedge/Patterns): Falling wedge with points 1-2-3-4 showing lower high - Significance: Failed breakout, bearish structure - AGREES ✔ - Volume Profile: POC rejection at 8,867, gaps below - Significance: Distribution zone confirmed - AGREES ✔ - Footprint Chart: 1.86K delta absorbed without price advance - Significance: Textbook institutional distribution - AGREES ✔ - Harmonic Patterns: Double top + descending triangle converging - Significance: Multiple bearish patterns aligned - AGREES ✔ - All Indicators: RSI/MFI/CVD/OBV showing bearish divergence - Significance: Unanimous bearish signals - AGREES ✔ Actionable Machine Summary: Integration of ALL data confirms perfect storm short setup. Original wedge analysis showing lower high (point 2→4) now validated by footprint absorption (1.86K delta trapped). Hidden bearish divergence across RSI/MFI/CVD confirmed by delta divergence in footprint. Multiple resistance factors (Fib/VWAP/POC/trendline) validated by failed auction at highs. Harmonic patterns provide clear targets at 8,707 and 8,530. Conclusion: Trade Prediction: SUCCESS Confidence: Very High The convergence of failed wedge breakout + hidden divergence + footprint absorption + harmonic patterns + multiple resistance rejection creates the highest probability short setup possible. Every analytical method points to the same conclusion - distribution is complete, bulls are trapped, bears control the market. Minimum target 8,720, likely 8,530.
CAPITALCOM:AU200Short
by jacesabr_real
AU200 to breakdown?ASX200 - 24h expiry Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. 8727 has been pivotal. We look for losses to be extended today. Short term momentum is bearish. A break of the recent low at 8727 should result in a further move lower. We look to Sell a break of 8719 (stop at 8759) Our profit targets will be 8601 and 8571 Resistance: 8800 / 8850 / 8890 Support: 8726 / 8700 / 8650 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:AU200AUDShort
by OANDA
ASX200 to find buyers at market price?ASX200 - 24h expiry Posted a Double Bottom formation. A Morning Doji Star formation has been posted at the low. Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. Previous support located at 8780. Setbacks should be limited to yesterday's low. 50 1day EMA is at 8788. We look to Buy at 8781 (stop at 8721) Our profit targets will be 8961 and 8991 Resistance: 8815 / 8854 / 8890 Support: 8726 / 8700 / 8650 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:AU200AUDLong
by OANDA
AUS200: Bulls Spring-Load at Oversold Support ZoneThe Market Participant Battle: Bearish momentum sellers who drove the index from point 3 (8876) down to point 4 (8794) have been decisively beaten by institutional buyers defending the proven support zone at 8783-8801. This creates a classic spring-load setup where oversold conditions at proven support should drive price back toward 8900+ as trapped shorts cover and sidelined bulls re-enter. Confluences: Confluence 1: Proven Buyer Zone Formation The numbered sequence 1→2→3→4 reveals a powerful market structure story. Point 3's close above point 1 validated point 2 as a major institutional accumulation zone. Now at point 4, we've returned to this proven buyer territory (8783-8801) where smart money previously accumulated. This isn't just support - it's a battle-tested zone where bulls have already demonstrated dominance. The 4-hour chart shows 4 horizontally stacked POCs (Points of Control) in this exact area, indicating massive volume concentration and institutional interest. Confluence 2: Hidden Bullish Divergence Explosion While price made a higher low at point 4 versus point 2, both RSI and MFI printed lower lows - textbook hidden bullish divergence. RSI sits at 31.20 (oversold) and MFI at 0.00 (extreme oversold), creating a coiled spring of buying pressure. This divergence pattern typically precedes explosive upward moves as the oversold oscillators snap back while price maintains its bullish structure. Confluence 3: Volume Accumulation Signals OBV (On-Balance Volume) and CDV (Cumulative Delta Volume) both show rising trajectories despite the recent price pullback. OBV's bullish divergence from price action confirms accumulation during weakness. CDV's upward slope indicates persistent buying pressure beneath the surface. This volume profile suggests institutions are quietly loading while retail traders panic sell. Web Research Findings: - Technical Analysis: ASX200 trading at 8780 after falling from recent highs near 9000, with strong support identified at 8750-8800 range - Recent News/Earnings: September historically weakest month for ASX200 (-0.11% average), but earnings season showed ASX300 Industrials beat rate at +11%, suggesting conservative guidance that could lead to upgrades - Analyst Sentiment: Major banks cautious on FY25 earnings (flat to lower expected), but see potential for earnings upgrades in FY26 with rate cuts - Data Releases & Economic Calendar: RBA expected to cut rates at September 29-30 meeting (currently 3.60%), with November cut likely taking cash rate to 3.35% - Interest Rate Impact: Three rate cuts already delivered in 2025, with market pricing in further easing - historically bullish for equities Layman's Summary: The ASX200 has pulled back to a critical support zone during September (historically the worst month for stocks), but this weakness is happening while companies are beating earnings expectations and interest rates are being cut. It's like seeing a "sale" sign on quality merchandise - the temporary weakness creates opportunity. With the RBA cutting rates and companies setting conservative guidance that they'll likely beat, this pullback to proven support looks more like a gift than a warning. Machine Derived Information: - Image 1: 4-hour chart showing ascending channel with points 1-4 marked, multiple oversold oscillators, and volume indicators - Significance: Confirms bullish structure intact with oversold bounce setup at proven support - AGREES ✔ - Image 2: Clean 4-hour chart emphasizing the 1→2→3→4 sequence and horizontal support at 8794-8800 - Significance: Validates institutional accumulation zone and spring-load pattern formation - AGREES ✔ Actionable Machine Summary: Both charts confirm the same powerful setup: proven buyers at 8783-8801 have stepped in at oversold conditions with hidden bullish divergence. The volume profile shows accumulation, not distribution. With RSI and MFI at extremes, any positive catalyst could trigger a sharp reversal higher. The risk/reward heavily favors longs at current levels. Conclusion: Trade Prediction: SUCCESS Confidence: High The convergence of proven support, extreme oversold conditions, hidden bullish divergence, and positive volume dynamics creates a high-probability long setup. September weakness is normal and expected, making this pullback to support more opportunity than threat. Target 8900+ with stops below 8780.
PEPPERSTONE:AUS200Long
by jacesabr_real
Technical Analysis Report for the AUS200 (ASX 200)# AUS200 Technical Analysis: Comprehensive Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy Executive Summary Current Price: 8943.0 (August 30, 2025, 12:54 PM UTC+4) Market Sentiment: Cautiously Bullish with September Seasonality Concerns Primary Trend: Uptrend with potential consolidation phase The AUS200 (ASX 200) continues to demonstrate resilience near record highs, with the index climbing 2.48% over the past month and up 10.89% year-over-year. However, technical analysis suggests we're entering the "September Swoon" period, historically the worst performing month for equities. Market Context & Fundamentals Economic Backdrop The Australian market operates within a supportive monetary environment with the RBA recently cutting the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60%. After years of steep hikes, the central bank began lowering rates in 2025, with three cuts implemented so far. This accommodative policy stance provides underlying support for equity valuations. Key Fundamental Drivers Monetary Policy: Inflation within the 2-3% target range with unemployment remaining low despite slight increases Economic Outlook: Moderate growth expectations with global uncertainty remaining elevated Sectoral Rotation: Energy and resources maintaining relative strength Technical Analysis Framework Japanese Candlestick Analysis Weekly Pattern: Doji formation suggesting indecision at current levels Daily Pattern: Small-bodied candles with extended upper shadows indicate selling pressure at highs Intraday Patterns: Hammer and shooting star formations prevalent in 1H and 4H timeframes Elliott Wave Analysis Primary Count: Wave 5 of larger degree impulse potentially nearing completion Alternative Count: Extended Wave 3 with further upside potential to 9200-9300 Critical Levels: Wave 4 low at 8750 provides key support structure Harmonic Patterns Active Pattern: Potential AB=CD pattern completion near 8950-9000 zone Fibonacci Confluence: 61.8% retracement of major swing aligns with current resistance PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone): 8920-8980 represents high-probability turning point Wyckoff Analysis Phase Assessment: Late accumulation/early markup phase Volume Analysis: Decreasing volume on recent advances suggests distribution characteristics Composite Operator: Large player activity evident in 8900-9000 range W.D. Gann Analysis # Time Theory Application Critical Time Windows: - September 3-6: High volatility period based on seasonal Gann squares - September 23: Autumn equinox - significant time cycle - October 7-14: 90-degree time cycle from previous major low # Square of 9 Analysis Current Position: 8943 sits at 299.05° on the wheel Next Resistance: 9025 (300°) and 9216 (304°) Support Levels: 8836 (297°) and 8649 (294°) # Price and Time Squaring Square of Current Price: √8943 = 94.57 Next square: 95² = 9025 (key resistance) Previous square: 94² = 8836 (support level) Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis Tenkan-sen (9): 8932 (neutral to slightly bullish) Kijun-sen (26): 8895 (bullish above this level) Senkou Span A: 8913 (current cloud top) Senkou Span B: 8847 (cloud bottom support) Assessment: Price above cloud with bullish bias, but approaching cloud resistance Multi-Timeframe Technical Indicators 5-Minute Chart (Scalping Focus) RSI(14): 58.2 - Neutral with slight bullish bias VWAP: 8938 - Price trading above, confirming intraday strength Bollinger Bands: Upper band at 8965, suggesting potential resistance Moving Averages: EMA(20) > EMA(50) maintaining bullish structure 15-Minute Chart (Scalping Focus) MACD: Bullish crossover pending, histogram improving Stochastic: 62.8 in neutral zone with upward momentum Volume Profile: High volume node at 8920-8930 zone 1-Hour Chart (Day Trading) RSI(14): 61.5 approaching overbought threshold VWAP: 8925 providing dynamic support ADX: 28.4 indicating moderate trend strength Support: 8910, 8885, 8850 Resistance: 8955, 8975, 9000 4-Hour Chart (Swing Trading) RSI(14): 65.8 in overbought territory MACD: Positive but showing divergence Bollinger Bands: Price at upper band, expansion phase Key Levels: Support at 8870, Resistance at 8980-9000 Daily Chart (Position Trading) RSI(14): 68.2 overbought but not extreme Moving Averages: All major MAs aligned bullishly Volume: Below-average, concerning for sustainability Pattern: Rising wedge formation suggesting potential correction Weekly Chart (Long-term View) RSI(14): 72.1 significantly overbought MACD: Positive but momentum slowing Trend: Strong uptrend since October 2024 low Resistance: 9000-9100 zone represents major overhead supply Support and Resistance Analysis Primary Support Levels 1. 8910-8920: Immediate support zone with volume confluence 2. 8870-8885: Previous resistance turned support, multiple touches 3. 8840-8850: 20-day EMA and psychological level 4. 8800-8815: 50-day EMA and structural support 5. 8750-8765: Key weekly support and Elliott Wave 4 low Primary Resistance Levels 1. 8955-8965: Immediate resistance with Gann and Fibonacci confluence 2. 8980-9000: Major psychological level and distribution zone 3. 9025-9040: Square of 9 resistance and measured move target 4. 9080-9100: Long-term resistance zone and potential wave completion 5. 9200-9250: Extended target based on harmonic pattern completion Weekly Trading Strategy (September 2-6, 2025) Monday, September 2, 2025 Market Outlook: Post-weekend gap potential, focus on 8920-8950 range Strategy: Range trading with breakout preparation Intraday Levels: Long Entry: 8920-8925 with stop at 8905 Target 1: 8945 Target 2: 8960 Short Entry: 8965-8970 with stop at 8980 Target 1: 8940 Target 2: 8920 Swing Setup: Monitor for breakout above 8970 for continuation to 9000 Tuesday, September 3, 2025 Market Outlook: Gann time cycle activation, increased volatility expected Strategy: Trend following with tight risk management Intraday Levels: Long Entry: 8930-8935 (if holding above 8920) Target 1: 8955 Target 2: 8975 Short Entry: 8975-8985 with stop at 9000 Target 1: 8950 Target 2: 8925 Key Events: Watch for reversal patterns near 8980-9000 zone Wednesday, September 4, 2025 Market Outlook: Mid-week consolidation expected, range-bound trading Strategy: Scalping opportunities within established range Intraday Levels: Range Bottom: 8920-8930 Range Top: 8970-8980 Breakout Levels: Above 8985 (bullish) / Below 8915 (bearish) Scalp Long: 8925-8930, Target: 8950-8955 Scalp Short: 8970-8975, Target: 8940-8945 Thursday, September 5, 2025 Market Outlook: Potential breakout day, monitor volume for confirmation Strategy: Breakout trading with momentum confirmation Breakout Scenarios: Bullish Breakout: Above 8985 targets 9015-9025 Bearish Breakdown: Below 8915 targets 8885-8870 Volume Requirement: 1.5x average for valid breakout Intraday Management: Stop Loss: 15-20 points for scalps, 30-35 points for swings Position Sizing: Reduce size by 25% given increased volatility Friday, September 6, 2025 Market Outlook: Weekly close positioning, potential profit-taking Strategy: End-of-week profit-taking and position adjustments Weekly Close Targets: Bullish Scenario: Close above 8960 sets up next week rally Neutral Scenario: Close 8920-8960 maintains range Bearish Scenario: Close below 8920 suggests correction beginning Day Trading Focus: Morning: Trend continuation from Thursday Afternoon: Range trading and profit-taking Risk Management Framework Position Sizing Scalping (5M-15M): 0.5-1% risk per trade Day Trading (1H-4H): 1-1.5% risk per trade Swing Trading (Daily): 2-2.5% risk per trade Stop Loss Guidelines 5M Charts: 8-12 points maximum 15M Charts: 12-18 points maximum 1H Charts: 20-30 points maximum 4H Charts: 35-50 points maximum Daily Charts: 60-100 points maximum Profit Taking Strategy Target 1: 1:1 Risk/Reward (50% position close) Target 2: 1:2 Risk/Reward (30% position close) Target 3: 1:3 Risk/Reward (20% position close) Trailing Stop: Implement after Target 1 achievement Geopolitical and Market Risk Factors Domestic Considerations RBA Policy: Economic outlook remains "uncertain" with potential for policy reversals if downside risks materialize Employment Data: Rising unemployment to 4.3% may influence future policy decisions Seasonal Patterns: September historically weak for Australian equities International Factors US Market Correlation: Strong correlation with S&P 500 performance China Economic Data: Resource sector sensitivity to Chinese growth metrics Currency Impact: AUD strength/weakness affecting export competitiveness Commodity Prices: Iron ore and gold price movements critical for index performance Event Risk Calendar September 3: RBA Meeting Minutes release September 5: US Non-Farm Payrolls (strong correlation impact) September 17: RBA Policy Decision (potential further rate cut) September 24: Chinese PMI data release Sector Rotation Analysis Outperforming Sectors 1. Energy: Benefiting from geopolitical tensions and supply constraints 2. Financials: Rate cut cycle creating yield curve steepening opportunities 3. Resources: China stimulus hopes and infrastructure demand Underperforming Sectors 1. Technology: Higher rates historically impacting growth valuations 2. REITs: Competition from rising dividend yields in other sectors 3. Consumer Discretionary: Economic uncertainty dampening spending Trading Psychology and Market Sentiment Sentiment Indicators Put/Call Ratio: 0.85 (slightly bearish) VIX Equivalent: Elevated but not extreme levels Insider Trading: Moderate selling activity at current levels Psychological Levels 9000: Major psychological resistance 8800: Key psychological support 8500: Crisis level support (low probability scenario) Advanced Trading Setups Harmonic Trading Opportunities 1. Bullish Bat Pattern: Completion at 8880-8900 zone 2. Bearish Gartley: Potential formation at 9020-9050 levels 3. AB=CD Pattern: Active completion zone 8950-8980 Gann-Based Setups 1. Square of 9 Trades: Long at 297° (8836), Short at 300° (9025) 2. Time Cycle Trades: Reversal zones at September 3-6 window 3. Angle Confirmation: 1x1 angle from August low providing dynamic support Wyckoff Accumulation/Distribution Current Phase: Late accumulation (Phase E potential) Volume Characteristics: Decreasing volume on advances (concerning) Composite Operator: Evidence of large player distribution above 8950 Technology Integration Algorithmic Considerations High-Frequency Impact: Increased volatility during 9:30-10:30 and 14:30-15:30 windows Order Flow Analysis: Large block transactions evident at 8920 and 8970 levels Market Microstructure: Bid-ask spreads widening above 8960 Recommended Tools 1. TradingView: Chart analysis and alert systems 2. Market Profile: Volume distribution analysis 3. Order Flow Software: Real-time institutional activity tracking Conclusion and Weekly Outlook The AUS200 stands at a critical juncture, trading near historical highs while facing seasonal headwinds and technical exhaustion signals. The combination of supportive monetary policy and strong year-to-date performance provides underlying bullish bias, but elevated RSI readings across multiple timeframes warrant cautious optimism. Key Themes for September: 1. Range Trading: 8920-8980 likely to contain price action initially 2. Breakout Preparation: Monitor volume for sustained moves beyond range 3. Seasonal Weakness: Historical September underperformance requires defensive positioning 4. Policy Support: RBA accommodation providing floor for significant declines Recommended Approach: - Favor range trading over directional bias initially - Reduce position sizes given elevated volatility expectations - Focus on high-probability setups with multiple confluence factors - Maintain disciplined risk management throughout September The technical analysis suggests a market in transition, where traditional support and resistance levels will be tested against changing fundamental backdrops. Traders should remain flexible and prepared for both continuation and reversal scenarios as the market navigates this critical period. --- *This analysis incorporates multiple technical methodologies and should be used in conjunction with proper risk management. Market conditions can change rapidly, and all trading decisions should be based on current market information and individual risk tolerance.*
PEPPERSTONE:AUS200
by sunya
ASX intraday dips continue to attract buyers.ASX200 - 24h expiry Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 8974. Offers ample risk/reward to buy at the market. Intraday dips continue to attract buyers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end. Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs. 20 4hour EMA is at 8925. We look to Buy at 8926 (stop at 8876) Our profit targets will be 9076 and 9096 Resistance: 8974 / 9000 / 9050 Support: 8898 / 8820 / 8788 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:AU200AUDLong
by OANDA