US30 – Bears Eye 46,000 Ahead of Key GDP ReleaseUS30 – Overview
The Dow Jones remains under bearish momentum as traders await the key U.S. GDP report.
Markets expect a sharp rebound from the previous -0.5% reading to around 3.3%.
A stronger-than-expected result would likely pressure US30 lower, while a print closer to 2.0% could spark volatility and choppy price action.
Technical View
Bearish Scenario:
Price is expected to test 46,000 first.
🔻 A confirmed 1H close below 46,000 would extend the bearish trend toward 45,680 → 45,520.
Bullish Scenario:
If price stabilizes above 46,120, US30 is likely to consolidate within the 46,120 – 46,300 range.
A confirmed breakout above 46,300 would open the way toward 46,400 → 46,620.
Key Levels
Pivot: 46,120
Resistance: 46,300 – 46,400 – 46,620
Support: 46,000 – 45,680 – 45,520
The GDP release will be the main driver.
Above 46,120: consolidation with bullish attempts.
Below 46,000: continuation of the bearish trend toward deeper supports.
Trade ideas
US30 Analysis (Short Bias)I expect US30 to remain bearish this week. Current price action suggests weakness, with momentum favoring sellers. If market conditions hold, we may see a continuation to the downside, and today’s session is also likely to close bearish. A short position looks favorable at this point, but as always, risk management is key.
The last week’s predictions toyed with my analysis, but this week might just be the setup for a stronger sell opportunity.
US30: Rebound to resistance & continue to break down
📝 1. Market Context
The SPREADEX:DJI dropped sharply from the recent high around 46,700 down to near 45,700, showing that sellers are currently in control in the short term. After this sharp decline, price is experiencing a mild recovery but still remains within a clearly defined downtrend channel and below key resistance.
🟥 2. Resistance Zone
The major resistance is located around 46,250 – 46,130 (highlighted in blue on the chart):
• This zone overlaps with the EMA and the upper band of the Keltner Channel.
• It was previously a sideways consolidation area that has now turned into resistance.
• It also intersects with the descending trendline, making a bearish rejection likely.
🟩 3. Support Zone
The nearest support lies at 45,858 – 45,748 (first pink zone).
If price breaks below this level, it is likely to continue falling toward the lower support zone at 45,520 – 45,640 (second pink zone).
🚨 4. Bearish Scenario
• Main scenario: Wait for a price pullback into the 46,250 – 46,130 area and watch for bearish signals → then SELL.
• Target: First target at 45,860 – 45,750 → if broken, expect further decline toward 45,520 – 45,640.
• Invalidation: A daily close above 46,250 would invalidate this bearish setup.
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US30 Technical Breakdown – 09/26/2025📍 US30 Technical Breakdown – 09/26/2025
Dow Jones pulled back from its 46,650 peak and dipped under 46,000, now retesting the 46,050 zone. Momentum has shifted bearish short-term, but bulls defending key supports could spark a bounce.
📊 Market Behavior:
🔹 Sharp rejection from recent highs
🔹 EMA crossover showing weakness ⚠️
🔹 Buyers stepping in at 45,800–45,700
📌 Key Levels:
🔹 Resistance Zones:
46,100 → intraday test zone
46,300 → breakout confirmation
46,650 → major top
🔹 Support Zones:
45,837 → first demand
45,722 → key pivot support
45,456 → deeper retracement
45,181 → strong buffer
🧠 Bias:
Short-term bearish 🔴
Holding 45,700 keeps mid-term bullish case alive.
Dow rolls over, shifting directional risksDirectional risks in the Dow Jones contract appear more balanced following the break of uptrend support earlier this week, a view supported by momentum indicators such as RSI (14) and MACD, which have also rolled over, delivering a neutral signal. More weight should be placed on price action in the near term rather than maintaining a specific bias.
If the price can hold above support at 45,762, longs could be established above the level with a stop beneath for protection, targeting the record high of 46,723 set earlier this month. Should the uptrend break lead to an extension of the bearish move beneath 45,762, the setup could be flipped, with shorts placed below the level and a stop above for protection. The 50DMA, 45,000 or 44,500 screen as potential targets.
Good luck!
DS
US30 Technical Analysis 1 Hour chart 📉 US30 Technical Analysis (1H Chart)
US30 is currently trading at 45,936 and remains inside a well-defined descending channel, showing strong bearish momentum.
• Trend: Price broke below the previous support (around 46,105 – 46,133) and retested it as resistance, confirming bearish continuation.
• Entry Zone: The rejection candle around the retest zone suggests sellers are still in control.
• Target Levels:
• First support: 45,911
• Next bearish target zone: 45,774 – 45,590 (lower channel support)
• Invalidation: A clean break and 1H close above 46,133 would invalidate the bearish setup and open room for bullish correction.
👉 Bias remains bearish as long as price stays under 46,100. Short-term downside continuation expected toward 45,700 – 45,600.
Us30 Trade Set Up Sep 25 2025Price is now in a bearish trend making LH/LL and has broken PDL but is approaching a SSL so if price sweeps it, closes above and making internal structure creating 1m IFVG/CISD i will look for buys to the 1h FVG, and is it trades through the 1h FVG the end target will be 50% of the 4h FVG. But if prices respects the 1h FVG, I will look for bearish structure from there to continue lower
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Dow corrective pullback - pivotal zone!Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 46560
Resistance Level 2: 46700
Resistance Level 3: 46845
Support Level 1: 46100
Support Level 2: 45960
Support Level 3: 45840
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) on the 1-hour timeframe.Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) on the 1-hour timeframe.
From the chart:
The uptrend line is being tested.
There are two downside target points marked if the trendline breaks.
📉 Target levels shown on the chart:
1. First target zone: around 45,000 – 45,100
2. Second target zone: around 43,800 – 44,000
So if the price breaks the ascending trendline and confirms below it, the next expected supports are roughly:
45,000 area (first support/target)
43,800 area (second support/target)
US30 left a footprint—FVG’s callin’.Hey Guys,
Once US30 hits my SELL zone, I’m pulling the trigger—targeting 46049.0
• Entry: 46574.5.0 or 46488.9
Set the stop point according to your own margin, my friends.
Every like you drop pushes me to share more setups like this. Big thanks to everyone showing support!
US30 Technical Breakdown – 09/25/2025📍 US30 Technical Breakdown – 09/25/2025
US30 dipped into the 46,100–46,000 support zone and held. Buyers stepped in right at demand, keeping the structure intact ✅.
📊 Market Behavior:
🔹 Strong defense of 46K support
🔹 Consolidating after rejection near 46,700
🔹 Bulls need 46,300+ reclaim for momentum
📌 Key Levels:
🔹 Resistance Zones:
46,300 → First hurdle for buyers
46,430 → Short-term breakout trigger
46,700 → Major top to break
🔹 Support Zones:
46,150 → Current intraday support
46,000 → Must hold for bulls
45,722 → Strong demand area
🧠 Bias:
Neutral → leaning bullish 🟢
Above 46K = healthy structure
Break below 45,700 = bearish shift ⚠️
US30 Consolidation remains firmly within a strong bullish trendThe US30 has recorded a new high zone, extending its rally as markets continue to react positively to supportive macroeconomic conditions. Optimism is being driven largely by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, while strong consolidation in the broader market further underpins sentiment.
A Price action remains firmly within a strong bullish trend as long as the index trades above 46,000. Sustained momentum above this key support level is likely to open the path towards the 47,200 resistance zone, potentially paving the way for further upside in the near term.
You any find more details in the chart,
Trade wisely best of Luck.
Ps; Support with like and comments for better analysis Thanks for Supporting.
US30 - 2 Day Traders Edge📈Technical:
MARKET BIAS: Neutral-Bullish above PIVOT (holding above HVN level, testing resistance)
PIVOT ZONE: 46,205 (Current HVN magnet)
🥇 Traders Edge - Actionable & Tactical
TRADE SETUPS:
🟧 Risk Warning: Core PCE surprise = 200+ point moves
↕️ Bias Flip: Break below 46,100 (bearish) | above 46,450 (bullish)
🟢BULLISH Potential if PIVOT holds -
• Bounce from Pivot area 46300 | 46450
• Stop Loss: 46,050
🔴BEARISH Potential -
• Look for SHORT Entries: Rejections at 46300 and/or below PIVOT @ 46205
• Take Profit: 45900 | 45500 Extended Breakdown
• Stop Loss: Above 46300
🎯KEY LEVELS:
• Strong Resistance: 46,300 | 46,450 | 46,650
• Strong Support: 46,100 | 45,900 | 45,700 | 45,500
🎯PRICE TARGETS:
• Bullish Path: 46,300 → 46,450 → 46,650 (Extended breakout)
• Bearish Path: 46,100 → 45,900 → 45,500 (Extended breakdown)
🚨HIGH-IMPACT EVENTS (48H): (NY Time Zone)
• Sep 25 | 08:30 Core Durable Goods: -0.1% vs 1.1% → Manufacturing health
• Sep 25 | 08:30 GDP Q2 Final: 3.3% vs -0.5% → Growth = equity bullish
• Sep 26 | 08:30 Core PCE MoM: 0.2% vs 0.3% → RATE REPRICING RISK
• Sep 26 | 08:30 Personal Income: 0.3% vs 0.4% → Corporate earnings proxy
🛑 MASTER RISK EVENT
🟧Friday September 26 | 08:30 (NY Time Zone)
🟧 Core PCE Price Index (MoM) - Forecast: 0.2% vs Previous: 0.3%
🟧 Critical Impact: Fed's preferred inflation gauge determines rate path and USD strength
• Gold: Collapse risk if hot print
• Equities: Rate repricing volatility
• Sectors: Tech rotation sensitivity
⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT PROTOCOL
• Reduce position sizes before Friday 08:30 EDT
• USD strength reversals impact Gold heavily
• Tech high beta to rate repricing
• Month-end flows amplify volatility
________________________________________
Analysis based on Session Volume POC clusters and HVN methodology
US30 H4 | Bearish drop offBased on the H4 chart analysis, we could see the price rise to the sell entry at 46,338.64, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to the take profit.
Stop loss is at 46,676.09, which is a swing high resistance.
Take profit is at 45,762.38, which has been identified as an overlap support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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US30: Late-Cycle Pop or Pullback Setup?The 𝐃𝐨𝐰 is pressing fresh highs into a historically soft seasonal window with stretched momentum and limited follow-through. I’m initiating/adding to a daily timeframe short aiming for a retrace back into prior breakout territory. My baseline path is a drift lower toward 44,500–44,000 (T1) and then the broader demand band near 43,000–42,2500 (T2), where I’ll reassess.
This isn’t a “crash” call—just a tactical mean-reversion as macro tailwinds fade, breadth narrows and the first Fed cut shifts the narrative from “rates down” to “why they’re down.”
Technicals:
• Stretched swing: Price has stair-stepped higher with shallow pullbacks; we’re now extended above the 50/100-DMA stack with waning impulse on push days (smaller real bodies, upper wicks).
• Local resistance: Repeated stalls into the same supply shelf. I’m leaning into the most recent failed extension and fading the box.
Structure map:
• Entry: around/into the failed-break zone 46.4k area.
• Invalidation: daily close > recent spike highs around 47.7k-48.0k.
• Targets: T1 45,000–44,500 (prior ATH retest / micro-POC region); T2 44,000–43,000.
• Risk: 0.5–1.0R per add; scale in only on rejection prints or lower-highs.
Fundamentals:
1) The first Fed cut is not automatically bullish.
The Fed delivered a 25 bps cut in September and signaled more easing, which historically can coincide with late-cycle growth scares and choppier equity returns rather than a straight-line melt-up. The cut was framed around cooling activity and inflation progress. 
2) Growth data is mixed—manufacturing still weak.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction in August (48.7)—below the 50 expansion line—signaling ongoing softness in goods demand. That is typically a headwind for the Dow’s cyclical mix. 
3) ES500 (S&P 500) breadth is narrow; concentration risk elevated.
Mega-caps continue to dominate performance and index leadership, while equal-weight underperforms and concentration risk stays high—conditions that historically increase pullback vulnerability. 
4) Valuations are rich versus history.
FactSet’s mid-summer forward 12-month P/E for the S&P 500 hovered well above 5- and 10-year averages (>22x vs. ~19x/17x), leaving less cushion if growth wobbles or margins compress. 
5) Sentiment & seasonality aren’t tailwinds.
September/early Q4 are seasonally tricky—historically the weakest stretch for US equities—just as the market tries to price the path of cuts vs. growth. 
6) Policy & trade headline risk.
Tariff timelines and “reciprocal” duties remain in play (with officials signaling Aug-1 implementation and additional measures possible), a rolling overhang for global cyclicals and exporters tied into the Dow complex. 
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Bullish continuation?Dow Jones (US30) is reacting off the pivot which acts as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a swing high resistance.
Pivot: 46,123.56
1st Support: 45,765.51
1st Resistance: 46,704.98
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