NQ Weekly Analysis!FA Analysis:
1- We know that the FED opened the door for a rate cut in September (Next week). The FED gave priority to address Employment Mandate issue and considered the higher inflation data as one time shot.
2- Hence, the Inflation (the second FED mandate) the most relevant data this week with both PPI and CPI to validate the FED view of one time shot. Another higher inflation will destroy this narrative and the FED might revise the way forward.
The story is simple: Higher Inflation data will send NQ down and vice-versa for inline and softer inflation.
TA Analysis:
Weekly TF:
The weekly close expresses really the incertitude regarding the direction. No clear direction; both direction are open; all will depend on inflation data.
Daily TF:
The daily close was bearish. NFP data provided an inline inflation data but a very negative employment data. As mentioned, bad data data is bad for NQ and vice-versa.
From daily perspective, price might retest Friday high or just NFP low (magenta dotted line) and continue down towards TP1, TP2 and TP3 particularly if Inflation data comes strong.
H4 TF:
H4 provided a break down. Inline with daily analysis, the least resistance is that price continues down after a short retrace up.
GL Everyone!
US100 trade ideas
US100 Trading Plan ¦ Layering Strategy + Macro Sentiment Drivers🚀 NASDAQ100 / US100 Index – Thief Money Heist Plan 🎭
📌 Plan: Bullish Swing / Scalping Setup
Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), here’s the heist-style breakdown for US100 🔑:
🏴☠️ Entry Style (Thief Layering Strategy)
Using layered limit orders for flexibility & precision:
• 23200.0
• 23250.0
• 23300.0
• 23350.0
(You may increase limit layers based on your strategy & risk appetite)
📉 Moving Average Pullback Entry Plan
• Buy entries on pullbacks to the Fibo level 382 Triangular Moving average zone.
• Look for bullish candles confirming the bounce from these MAs.
• This offers better risk-to-reward by catching momentum on retracements instead of chasing highs.
❓ Why This Works?
• Moving averages often act as dynamic support/resistance in trending markets.
• Institutional traders & algos track them heavily, making them high-probability zones.
• Combining with layering entries = higher flexibility + reduced risk of mistimed single entry.
🛡️ Stop Loss (Protect the Vault)
• Thief SL: @23000.0
• Reminder: Adjust your SL based on your own strategy & risk tolerance.
🎯 Target (Escape Zone)
• Overbought + Trap Zone ahead!
• Escape target: @23750.0
• Note: Don’t rely only on my TP — secure profits at your own pace and risk.
📊 US100 Index CFD Real-Time Data Sep 03
📈 Daily Change: +133.47 (+0.57%)
📅 Monthly Performance: +0.76%
📆 Yearly Performance: +23.48%
😰😊 Fear & Greed Index
📊 Current Reading: 53/100 (Neutral)
🧐 Interpretation: Market sentiment is balanced, showing neither extreme fear nor greed. Investors are cautious but not panicked.
🧠 Retail vs. Institutional Sentiment
👥 Retail Traders: Moderately bullish (55% Long, 45% Short)
🏦 Institutional Traders: Slightly cautious (50% Long, 50% Short)
🔑 Key Drivers: Mixed signals from manufacturing data and upcoming labor market reports.
📉📈 Fundamental & Macro Score
📊 Macro Score: 6/10
Manufacturing PMI (48.7) still in contraction but improving.
Labor market data (JOLTS) awaited for clarity.
⚡ Volatility Score: 5/10 (Moderate)
VIX near average levels, indicating stable expectations.
💧 Liquidity Score: 7/10
Strong volume and breadth in large-cap tech stocks.
🐂🐻 Overall Market Outlook
✅ Bullish (Long): 60%
Supported by strong yearly gains and resilience in big tech.
⚠️ Bearish (Short): 40%
Concerns over manufacturing contraction and inflation pressures.
💡 Key Takeaways
📈 US100 is trending mildly positive today (+0.57%).
😐 Sentiment is neutral—no extreme fear or greed.
📊 Macro data hints at cautious optimism but watch for upcoming labor reports.
🐂 Overall bias leans slightly bullish for long-term holders.
📊 Related Pairs to Watch
FOREXCOM:SPX500
TVC:DJI
TVC:VIX
NASDAQ:NDX
FX:USDOLLAR
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
#NASDAQ100 #US100 #NDX #SPX500 #DJI #TradingView #SwingTrade #ScalpTrading #LayeringStrategy #MarketAnalysis
US100 – Short Setup Near All-Time High US100 – Short Setup Near All-Time High
Price is currently testing a critical resistance zone near the all-time high at 23,979. After rejecting from this level, I’ve identified a potential short opportunity with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
Price testing ALL-TIME HIGH (23,979) and rejecting from resistance zone.
🔴 Entry: 23,798 – 23,805
🛑 SL: 23,880
🎯 TP1: 23,613 | TP2: 23,355 | TP3: 23,201
⚡ Strong supply zone + rejection → high R:R setup (~1:5).
❌ Invalidation above 23,880.
#US100 #NASDAQ100 #indices #PriceAction #TradingSetup #SupplyDemand #ShortTrade
NASDAQ - Bullish Flow into Highs
Bias: Bullish
HTF (4H Overview):
From the bird’s-eye view, structure remains bullish. Liquidity is being targeted across the 30M–4H multi-timeframe play, with strong bullish intent confirmed by volume printing to the upside.
LTF (30M / 5M Confirmation):
A proper CHoCH has been established. Once the trend shift occurs, we wait for the pullback before attending longs.
Entry Plan:
Look for entry after the courtyard liquidity is collected and demand is mitigated (slash zone).
Targets:
Initial: 5M highs
Extended: 30M highs, depending on market delivery.
Mindset Note:
Patience—let liquidity do its job before striking.
Nas100: Trading Levels in FocusSupply Zones (Red)
23,853 - 23,873
A strong supply zone near recent highs. Sellers are expected to defend aggressively here, making it a potential rejection area. A confirmed breakout and retest, however, could open the path toward new highs.
23,742 – 23,759
This zone reflects last week’s high-volume rejection. Acts as an intraday decision area: sharp rejections can trigger short setups, while a clean break and hold above would strengthen bullish momentum.
Demand Zones (Green)
23,553 – 23,573
A fresh demand zone aligned with recent breakout structure. Buyers may attempt to defend here for continuation longs. If broken, the zone flips into resistance, adding downside pressure.
23,473 – 23,500
Well-tested support area with prior absorption. Strong bounce potential, but multiple retests increase the risk of a breakdown. A failure here would likely accelerate bearish momentum.
Overall Sentiment: Cautiously Bullish on Fragile Ground
At its core, the market is cautiously optimistic right now. Positive momentum from Big Tech and expectations of looser monetary policy are fueling short-term upside potential. At the same time, consolidation and uncertainty around macro data keep sentiment restrained. Momentum is present but it relies on breakout moves holding.
US100 SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
US100 SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 23,632.7
Target Level: 23,384.3
Stop Loss: 24,004.0
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 9h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
NAS100 UPDATE - VERY IMPORTANT READ!Dear Friends in Trading,
INVESTING LIVE - IMPORTANT:
Equities start to get hit by bond market rumblings
The blow up in long-end yields is biting at broader market sentiment now
Stocks down
S&P 500 futures are now down 0.5% as markets are seeking shelter amid the blow up in bond yields. European indices are also sinking lower across the board with the DAX now down nearly 1% with the CAC 40 also turning early gains to losses now. It's all coming undone as we see long-end yields surge higher all across major economies.
France's 30-year yields are now above 4.50% for the first time since 2011 and that follows suit from the situation in the UK here. And as warned there, it was only a matter of time before the spillover impact hits at stocks today. And it's not just in Europe, we're seeing the same in Japan and also the US as well. From last week: The US yield curve continues to steepen post-Jackson Hole
These are testing times and if there's ever a good reason for a correction in stocks, this would be it.
Elsewhere, gold is also being dragged back down on the day as traders are seeking safety in the US dollar at the moment. The precious metal has pared earlier gains to $3,478 now. But if it is a case of truly focusing on the blow up in yields with a steepening of the yield curve, I reckon the play will be to buy gold on dips for the long haul.
I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight.
Thank you for taking the time study my analysis.
Bullish bounce off 61.8% Fibonacci support?US100 is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 23,289.88
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 22,983.03
Why we like it:
There is a multi-swing low support.
Take profit: 23,729.56
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
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NASDAQ Index Analysis (US100 / NASDAQ):The NASDAQ index is moving in an uptrend and is currently testing the 23,800 resistance level.
🔻 Bearish Scenario:
If the price manages to break below 23,750 and hold, it is likely to head towards the lower support level at 23,500.
🔺 Bullish Scenario:
If the price breaks above 23,850 and holds, this could support a continuation of the bullish move toward 24,000.
NAS100 At Major Resistance - Breakout or Reversal?NAS100 Technical Analysis: 🚀 At Major Resistance - Breakout or Reversal? 📉
Asset: NAS100 (NASDAQ 100 CFD)
Analysis Date: September 5, 2025
Current Closing Price: 23,639.8 (as of 12:59 AM UTC+4)
Timeframes Analyzed: 1H, 4H, D, W
Executive Summary & Market Outlook 🧐
The NAS100 is at a critical technical juncture, testing a formidable resistance zone between 23,600 and 23,800. 📊 The index is in a clear long-term bullish trend but shows signs of short-term exhaustion after a powerful rally. This is a classic "make-or-break" level. A decisive breakout above 23,800 could ignite a new leg up towards 24,500, while a rejection here may trigger a significant corrective pullback towards 22,800. This analysis provides a roadmap for both intraday traders 🎯 and swing traders 📈.
Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis 🔍
1. Trend Analysis (Daily & 4-Hour Chart):
Primary Trend: 🟢 Bullish. Price is above all major Daily Moving Averages (200, 100, 50 EMA), which are aligned bullishly.
Short-Term Trend: 🟡 Bullish but Overextended. The rally has been near-vertical, suggesting the market is ripe for a pause or pullback.
2. Key Chart Patterns & Theories:
Resistance Confluence Zone 🧱: The current price is battling a massive resistance cluster. This zone includes:
A prior major swing high (Price Action Resistance).
The 127.2% and 161.8% Fibonacci extension levels from the last significant correction.
A potential Bullish Cypher pattern's Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ).
Elliott Wave Theory 🌊: The rally from the last major low is best counted as a powerful Impulse Wave. We are likely in the final stages of Wave 5 or a complex Wave 3 extension. This implies that while the trend is up, a larger Wave (4) correction is increasingly probable. Typical retracement targets for a Wave 4 are the 38.2% Fib level near 22,800.
Ichimoku Cloud (H4/D1) ☁️: Price is trading high above the Cloud on daily charts, confirming the strong bullish trend. The Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is also well above price, indicating sustained buying pressure. However, such extreme extensions often precede consolidation.
Gann Theory ⏳: The 23,600-23,800 area represents a key mathematical resistance zone. A daily close above this could open the path to the next Gann angle target.
3. Critical Support & Resistance Levels:
Resistance (R1): 23,800 - 24,000 (Key Psychological & Technical Ceiling) 🚨
Resistance (R2): 24,500 (Projected Target)
Current Closing Price: ~23,640
Support (S1): 23,200 - 23,400 (Immediate Support & 21-period EMA) ✅
Support (S2): 22,800 - 23,000 (Major Support - 38.2% Fib & Prior Breakout Zone) 🛡️
Support (S3): 22,200 (200-Day EMA & 50% Fib)
4. Indicator Consensus:
RSI (14-period on 4H/D): Reading is above 70 on both timeframes, signaling severely overbought conditions. 📛 This is a warning against chasing longs at these highs. A bearish divergence is forming on the 4H chart, hinting at weakening momentum.
Bollinger Bands (4H) 📏: Price is consistently riding the upper band, a sign of a strong trend. However, a move back towards the middle band (20-period SMA) is a common next step after such extensions.
Moving Averages: The bullish alignment (EMA8 > EMA21 > EMA50) is intact. The EMA 21 on the 4H chart (~23,400) is critical immediate support.
Volume & VWAP: Volume has been declining on the most recent push higher, a potential bearish divergence 📉 suggesting a lack of conviction at these highs.
Trading Strategy & Forecast 🎯
A. Intraday Trading Strategy (5M - 1H Charts):
Bearish Scenario (Rejection Play) ⬇️: This is the preferred setup given overbought conditions. Look for bearish reversal candlestick patterns (e.g., Bearish Engulfing, Evening Star 🌟) at or near the 23,800 resistance.
Entry: On confirmation of rejection.
Stop Loss: Tight, above 23,850.
Target: 23,400 (TP1), 23,200 (TP2).
Bullish Scenario (Breakout Play) ⬆️: If buyers overpower and we get a strong 1H close above 23,850, a momentum long could be viable.
Entry: On a small pullback to ~23,780 (re-test as support) or on the breakout.
Stop Loss: Below 23,650.
Target: 24,200 (TP1), 24,500 (TP2).
B. Swing Trading Strategy (4H - D Charts):
Strategy: WAIT FOR A PULLBACK. The risk/reward for new long entries at this resistance is poor. 🚫 The optimal strategy is to wait for a healthy correction to key support zones to add long positions.
Ideal Long Zones: 23,200 (shallow pullback) or 22,800 (deeper correction). ✅
Bearish Risk: A daily close below 22,800 would signal a much deeper correction is likely underway, potentially targeting 22,200.
Risk Management & Conclusion ⚠️
Key Risk Events: High-impact US economic data (e.g., NFP, CPI) and Fed policy announcements are paramount. 🔥 Any hawkish surprises could be the catalyst for a sharp tech-led selloff.
Position Sizing: The potential for increased volatility demands conservative risk management. Never risk more than 1-2% of your account on a single trade.
Conclusion: The NAS100 is bullish but exhausted. 🥴 The current resistance zone is a high-risk area for new longs and a high-probability area for a pullback. 🎯 Swing traders should be patient for a better entry. Intraday traders can play the range between 23,200 and 23,800 until a decisive break occurs. The overall trend remains up, but a period of consolidation or correction is the most probable outcome in the near term.
Overall Bias: 🟢 Bullish above 22,800 | 🟡 Neutral/Bearish below 23,200
For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade)
I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors.
Sincerely,
Shunya.Trade
Website: shunya dot trade
Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
Potential Buy Zone for NAS100Trade what you see and not what you feel. This is what I see. There is a demand zone on 15 min which has not been balanced. There is also another demand zone below that one on 1hr time frame that has also not been balanced. Will wait for the market to retrace to the demand zone and if I get proper indications of going long on smaller TF I will take the long. I have a feeling though that the market might go to the lower demand zone because there is a potential formation of a H&S pattern forming. So, stop losses will be tight if I enter on the 15 min demand zone.
NASDAQ NAS100 at a Crossroads: Riding Nvidias Surge with CautionThe immediate reaction to Nvidia's stellar earnings has been decidedly bullish, propelling the NASDAQ higher. We saw a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" event where the "news" was so powerful it triggered a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) rally with a healthy correction on Friday.
In the next one to two weeks, the near-term bias is bullish, but with extreme caution. The market has received the fundamental "all-clear" it was waiting for from its most important company. However, the index is now technically overextended and sentiment is euphoric, making it vulnerable to a short-term pullback or consolidation. The primary trend, however, remains bullish IMO.
1. The Catalyst: Nvidia Earnings
Nvidia didn't just beat expectations; it shattered them and raised future guidance, validating the entire AI investment thesis.
Revenue & EPS: Significant beats on both the top and bottom lines.
Guidance: Q2 revenue guidance of ~$28B was vastly higher than analyst estimates of ~$26.6B, demonstrating unprecedented demand for its Blackwell and Hopper architecture chips.
Data Center: Revenue of $22.6B, up 427% year-over-year, is the core of the story. This shows that AI infrastructure spending is not slowing; it's accelerating.
Stock Split: The announcement of a 10-for-1 stock split adds a psychological boost for retail investors, improving accessibility and reinforcing bullish sentiment.
Analyst Interpretation: This wasn't just a quarterly report; it was a fundamental confirmation that the AI revolution has tangible, massive earnings power. It alleviated fears that the AI trade was a bubble. For the NASDAQ, which is market-cap weighted and heavily influenced by NVDA, this was rocket fuel.
2. Technical Analysis (One-Day Timeframe Post-Earnings)
Price Action: The NASDAQ gapped up powerfully at the open, breaking cleanly above its previous consolidation range. This was a strong bullish signal.
Volume: The rally was accompanied by massive volume, confirming broad institutional participation. This wasn't a low-volume grind; it was a conviction move.
3. Macro & Fundamental Backdrop
Interest Rates: The market is currently pricing in a higher-for-longer stance from the Fed. However, recent economic data (PMIs, jobless claims) has shown slight signs of softening, which keeps hopes alive for a potential rate cut later in the year. A stable, non-accelerating rate environment is acceptable for tech stocks, especially those like Nvidia with explosive earnings growth that outweighs rate concerns.
Geopolitics: While always a risk (U.S.-China tensions, elections), the market has largely shrugged off these concerns for now, choosing to focus on the stellar corporate fundamentals.
Market Breadth: A key watch-out. The rally has been narrow, led primarily by the "Magnificent 7" (now perhaps the "Fab 1" - Nvidia). For the rally to be sustainable, we need to see broader participation from other sectors and smaller-cap stocks within the NASDAQ.
4. Likely Outcome for the Next 1-2 Weeks: Bullish with a Caveat
Bullish Scenario (60% Probability):
The momentum from Nvidia is likely to carry the NASDAQ higher in the very near term. We could see a continued "melt-up" towards 17,400-17,500 as underinvested funds are forced to chase performance and add equity exposure. Any dip will likely be shallow and bought aggressively, with the 17,000 level holding firm.
Consolidation/Pullback Scenario (35% Probability):
This is the most likely healthy outcome. After such a massive, emotion-driven surge, the market is likely to need a period of digestion. We could see the NASDAQ chop sideways for a week or two to work off the overbought conditions. This would reset the momentum indicators and allow the market to build a new base for the next leg higher. This is not a bearish signal; it is a strengthening signal.
Bearish Reversal Scenario (5% Probability):
A sharp reversal below the 17,000 support level and a fill of the earnings gap (~16,900) would be a significant warning. This would likely require a new, negative macro catalyst (e.g., unexpectedly hot inflation data, a major geopolitical escalation) that forcefully changes the interest rate narrative.
Trading & Investment Implication
For Bulls / Existing Longs: Hold positions. Consider taking partial profits on extreme strength, but avoid selling your entire position. The trend is your friend. Use any pullback to the 17,000 support as a potential buying opportunity.
For New Entrants: Chasing the green spike is high-risk. Be patient. Wait for the inevitable pullback or period of consolidation to establish a position. The risk/reward is poor on the day after a massive gap up.
For Bears: Fighting this tape is exceptionally dangerous. The fundamental news from NVDA is a game-changer for the index. Shorting based solely on overbought conditions is a quick path to losses.
Final Analyst Call: The next week is likely bullish with high volatility, potentially extending gains. However, the following week is highly susceptible to a consolidation or pullback as the initial euphoria settles. The overall trajectory for the next two weeks is cautiously bullish, with the understanding that a 2-4% pullback is a normal and healthy part of a strong uptrend.
The burden of proof is now on the bears to prove they can wrestle control back from a market that just received the best possible news from its most important constituent.
Not financial advice, this is just my opinion.