USNAS100 Update | Fed Pressure Keeps Market Under Bearish BiasUSNAS100 – Overview
Tech fright calms but Fed pressure grows
U.S. tech stocks appear to have stabilized after two sessions of sharp declines, but uncertainty persists as the Treasury market reacts to the latest Federal Reserve developments ahead of the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming.
Technical Outlook
USNAS100 maintains a bearish setup while below 23,295.
A break and sustained close above this level would signal a potential bullish reversal.
📍 Key Levels
Pivot: 23,295
Support: 23,165 – 23,045 – 22,850
Resistance: 23,430 – 23,540 – 23,690
previous idea:
NAS100 trade ideas
NASDAQ Technicals
NASDAQ (NAS100) Technical Analysis
Based on the 4 hour chart, NASDAQ (NAS100) is currently showing range bound price action, indicating a period of consolidation after a recent downtrend. This price behavior suggests a tug of war between bulls and bears, with neither side able to decisively break through key support or resistance levels.
Key Levels and Price Zones
The market is trading within a defined range. The key support zone is identified around 23,055 to 22,958. This is a critical area, as a clean break below it would signal a continuation of the previous bearish trend. The primary resistance zone is located between 23,309 and 23,418. This zone must be broken and held for a potential bullish reversal to be considered.
Bullish and Bearish Scenarios
* Bullish Scenario: For a bullish trend to resume, the price needs to break above the 23,418 resistance level. A confirmed breakout with a subsequent retest of this level as support could open the door for a move towards the higher resistance at 23,736. Traders should watch for a strong bullish candle closing above this zone and an increase in buying volume to confirm the breakout.
* Bearish Scenario: The bearish outlook remains intact as long as the price stays below the resistance zone. A break below the support zone around 22,958 would be a significant bearish signal. This could lead to a further drop toward the lower range's support at 22,690. A strong bearish candle closing below the support zone would provide confirmation.
Risk Management and Final Thoughts
Given the current consolidation, traders should be cautious about initiating new positions without clear confirmation. The most prudent approach is to wait for a definitive breakout above resistance or a breakdown below support. Trading within the range can be highly volatile and is generally considered higher risk. Placing stop loss orders outside of the key support and resistance zones is crucial to manage potential risks effectively. The current technical screenshot of NAS100 is one of indecision, and a significant move is likely on the horizon once one of the boundaries is breached.
Nasdaq 100 (US100) – Short Opportunity Still AliveThe Nasdaq is still showing weakness at it's current level. There’s been more than enough time and news to push this market higher – but nothing happened. That, in itself, is a strong signal.
What we’re seeing now:
Weak jobs data: ADP and JOLTS both came in soft. Job openings hit the lowest level in nearly a year. That boosted rate-cut hopes – but the Nasdaq didn’t move.
Tech underperformance: Broader markets found some strength, but tech keeps lagging behind. Nasdaq isn’t leading like it used to – that’s bearish.
China IPO risks: New Nasdaq restrictions on Chinese listings are adding pressure to overall tech sentiment.
No follow-through: Even with dovish expectations and weak macro, bulls can’t lift the index. That says a lot.
Trade Setup (based on the chart):
Entry: between 23,480 and 23,520
Stop Loss: above 23,600 or if not high leverage even 23,720
Targets:
T1: 23,250
T2: 23,000
T3: will update depending on momentum
Why this short still makes sense:
The Nasdaq had multiple bullish triggers – weak data, Fed expectations, soft dollar – and didn’t move.
Sentiment is shaky, buyers aren’t stepping in.
Tech remains heavy while other sectors rotate.
Price is stalling right at resistance after a weak bounce.
Summary:
Plenty of chances to break out – but nothing happened. That’s a red flag.
I’m shorting between 23,480 and 23,520, with targets at 23,250 and 23,000.
Setup is invalid if we break cleanly above 23,720.
No financial advice – just how I see the chart right now.
NAS100 - Bullish IdeaWaiting for price to essentially reject the London Lows - most likely after news to then make another leg to the upside - It will require some liquidity of the sellers to then flip up - if price does not reject the LL and continues downside - I will wait for lower levels and a close about the London Lows to then take the buy to the upside - heavy news today so will see how it all plays out. So far, I am bullish for the play.
US100 on Shaky Ground – What Traders Should Watch TodayZones in Focus
The marked zones on the chart are not fixed buy or sell levels but decision areas where price is likely to accelerate and create short-term opportunities.
Red zones (potential supply): If price trades into these areas and shows rejection, it can set up short positions. A clean break above, however, flips the zone into potential support, opening the door for continuation longs.
Green zones (potential demand): If price reaches these areas and bounces sharply, it can provide long setups. A decisive break lower, by contrast, turns the zone into resistance, creating opportunities for continuation shorts on a retest.
The framework is built around letting price action on the 5-minute chart confirm the reaction: rejections favor counter-trades, while breakouts and retests favor continuation in the direction of the move.
The Market Is Sending Mixed Signals
The latest JOLTS report showed U.S. job openings falling to 7.18 million in July, below expectations of 7.38 million and down from 7.36 million in June. That makes it the lowest reading in ten months – and for the first time since the COVID era, there are more unemployed workers than available jobs.
For equities, this kind of data is a double-edged sword. On one hand, fewer openings cool the labor market and strengthen the case for earlier Fed rate cuts. On the other, if the trend deepens, it signals weaker economic momentum and risks feeding through to lower earnings growth.
Mood Check: Nasdaq Between Hope and Fear
The mood in the Nasdaq-100 is cautiously optimistic, yet undeniably fragile.
The bright side: Big Tech carried the index higher yesterday, with Alphabet rallying 9% and Apple 3–4%. That added roughly 1% to the Nasdaq-100 and reminded us how concentrated the index still is – a single positive headline can shift sentiment fast. At the same time, falling yields and softer labor data fuel hopes that the Fed may soon move toward cuts, a clear tailwind for growth stocks.
The risk side: Macro signals tell a different story. The ISM confirmed that manufacturing remains in contraction, and JOLTS made clear that the labor market is cooling. Inflation pressure may be easing, but so is economic momentum. That keeps investors defensive, even as the index rallies.
The Bigger Picture
Taken together, US100 sentiment is leaning positive in the near term, but the foundation is shaky. Gains are being driven more by mega-cap strength and expectations of rate relief than by broad economic resilience. Until the macro backdrop turns more convincingly, every rally remains vulnerable.
nas retest longim on fire today, made about 4k usd in the morning session.
but im looking at this one, conditions, looking for uk to dump, then usa to pump back up,
will look at 5 mins candles to see entry. i want to see some wicks or support.
if doesn't dump before USA timezone, i rather stay out as we got 3 news tonight, looking very choppy, likely will stay out of usa market today, just price action and take some small wins here and there.
my scalping im on 7 trading day win streak, about 80% winrate.
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US100 – London Session OutlookTrading Focus
The marked zones on the chart highlight areas where I look for small but quick intraday moves. There are two potential sell zones and two potential buy zones. If a zone breaks, I look for continuation trades on a retest of that same level.
This approach allows me to capture short, tactical opportunities with clear risk levels, while adapting quickly if price breaks structure.
Macro Update – Manufacturing Still Under Pressure
Yesterday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI was released. The August figure came in at 48.7%, a slight improvement from July’s 48.0%, yet still below the 50% threshold that signals expansion. This indicates that U.S. manufacturing remains in contraction for the sixth consecutive month, though the slower pace points to some early signs of stabilization. New orders climbed back above 50%, suggesting demand may be recovering, but production and employment both weakened, and prices remained elevated, underscoring persistent cost pressures. Overall, the sector is still under strain, showing only tentative signs of recovery.
Market Sentiment
Overall, market sentiment is cautious. The rebound in new orders provides a hint of optimism, but weak production, soft labor data, and sticky input costs keep investors on edge. Traders remain defensive, seeking confirmation before committing risk in what is still a fragile backdrop.
What’s Next – JOLTS Job Openings
Today, all eyes are on the JOLTS Job Openings report, a key gauge of U.S. labor market strength.
A higher reading signals tight labor conditions, keeping wage and inflation pressures high and limiting the Fed’s ability to cut rates.
A weaker reading suggests cooling demand for workers, supporting the case for easing.
This release has the potential to move markets quickly, adding another layer of volatility.
US 100 Buy-Stop, 4H/1D Close Above ResistanceUS 100 has closed above Resistance on 4 Hour and Daily Timeframe.
It is in Bullish Trend on Daily Timeframe. The trend is very likely to continue based on Technicals.
Moreover, it is likely that Federal Reserve will lower the interest rates in the Unied States. If that happens, financial markets will continue the upward trajectory. That however, is a long-term projection. Our trade setup here is just 1:1 but we can see more such trades in the future.
NAS100 4HTrading Outlook for Major Currency Pairs and Indices, Especially Gold and Silver, in the Upcoming Week
In this series of analyses, we have reviewed short-term trading perspectives and market outlooks.
As can be seen, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance area near the current price of the asset. The market’s reaction to or break of these levels will determine the subsequent price trend up to the next specified levels.
Important Note: The purpose of these trading outlooks is to identify key price levels and potential market reactions, and the analyses provided should not be considered as trading signals.
Nasdaq Pulls Back from Recent HighsToward the end of the week, the Nasdaq index began to retreat, posting a decline of at least 1.5% in the short term, as a new bearish bias has started to emerge strongly, preventing the index from reaching the historical highs again. For now, the momentum driven by expectations of lower interest rates has begun to fade in recent sessions, while corrections in stocks such as Nvidia—which represent a significant share of the index’s market capitalization—have limited buying pressure heading into the week’s close. Given this backdrop, as the market awaits key economic data, such as the upcoming U.S. employment report on Friday, uncertainty and sideways movements may continue to dominate trading sessions in the near term.
Short-Term Sideways Range
The lack of clear direction in recent movements has led to the formation of a sideways range in the Nasdaq, currently defined by resistance at 23,800 points and support at 22,800 points. As long as price action remains within these levels, neutrality will likely remain the prevailing scenario in the short term.
Technical Indicators
RSI: the RSI line is oscillating near the neutral 50 level, reflecting a consistent balance between buying and selling pressure over the past 14 sessions. This suggests that the neutral bias has begun to dominate short-term movements in the index.
MACD: the MACD histogram also hovers close to the 0 line, showing that short-term moving averages maintain a neutral bias. As long as this condition holds, the current sideways range is likely to remain relevant in upcoming sessions.
Key Levels to Watch:
23,800 points – Main Resistance: corresponds to recent highs in the Nasdaq. A sustained breakout above this level could open the door to a more consistent bullish trend in the short term.
22,800 points – Near-Term Support: aligns with the Ichimoku cloud and stands as the most important barrier for containing short-term downward corrections.
22,200 points – Critical Support: coincides with neutral price areas observed on the chart in February of this year and is also converging with the 200-period moving average. If this level comes under consistent pressure, it could pave the way for a more dominant bearish bias.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
Nasdaq-100 Wave Analysis – 28 August 2025- Nasdaq-100 reversed from support zone
- Likely to rise to resistance level 24000.00
Nasdaq-100 index recently reversed from the support zone between the strong support level 23000.00 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of July), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from June.
The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer – which started the active impulse wave (iii).
Given the strong daily uptrend, Nasdaq-100 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 24000.00 (which stopped the earlier impulse wave i).
US100 – Breakout or a Classic Bull Trap?
The US100 (Nasdaq Index) has recently shown what looks like a breakout on the 4-hour timeframe after a phase of consolidation. On the surface, this can easily be perceived as a bullish continuation. However, a closer look reveals that the breakout might just be setting up for a classic bull trap.
I am currently positioned short on the index with a view that the current move could fail to sustain. The price has entered into my marked supply zone, an area where selling pressure historically outweighs demand. If this zone holds true to its nature, we can see a strong rejection from here.
• LTP (Last Traded Price): 23,690
• Supply Zone: Highlighted on chart
• Downside Target: Around 22,500
The broader structure still suggests that while short-term euphoria pulls prices higher, the underlying momentum may not support sustained gains. If the bulls lose control here, the downside could open up swiftly, validating this thesis.
I’ll be watching how price reacts in this zone closely. For now, I remain short-biased, anticipating a rejection and a move towards the 22,500 mark.
A Crucial Test Lies Ahead for the Nasdaq 100The Nasdaq 100 faces a major test over the remainder of this week, with Nvidia reporting results after the close on 27 August and the US PCE report due on the morning of 29 August. The index has struggled to regain its losses after peaking on 13 August, facing stiff resistance just below the 61.8% retracement level at 23,670. In addition, the 10- and 20-day moving averages have proved to be sticking points, with the index unable to break away from either.
Momentum, as measured by the relative strength index, has also turned lower, forming a series of lower highs. Furthermore, a bearish divergence has emerged, with the RSI making lower highs while the Nasdaq 100 registered higher highs from the end of July through to mid-August.
Looking more closely, we see that the Nasdaq 100 had a straight-line rally on 22 August, and such rallies can sometimes be treated in a similar fashion to gaps. As a result, it is entirely possible that the index could give back its recent gains and fall back to 23,210, especially if it continues to struggle to surpass resistance at 23,620.
A breakout above 23,620 would be a bullish development despite a number of bearish signals. It would suggest the potential for the index to rise to 23,800 and possibly back to the previous highs.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
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