Most probable scenario (Rates remain unchanged)Ever since my last year's downward correction projection on Dow, the market has been steadily going upward forming our wave 5.
For past couple weeks, I have been monitoring the Expanding Triangle forming in market ever since the major RSI drop in July downward swing, which was our wave C.
22 August was the day most people like me were expecting the drop in market which would have been our Wave E, but since the GDP news pumped the market turning an ABC zigzag into an Impulse with the 5th wave being the pump upon news release, the wave D was hence prolonged and we had to wait for another 5 wave structure to complete the wave D zig-zag as shown in the image below.
Now, we can see that even though wave D has traced more than 200% of wave B, it is still a valid Triangle. The ending diagonal further strengthens this scenario to play out.
Even though this scenario's success is dependent upon the news, which is impossible to predict. The price action so far we have seen along with the GDP and other news reports suggest that even though market is highly anticipating 25 basis points cut or even 50 basis points, the likelihood of Interest rates remaining unchanged is still very high because the US economy is still strong and does not necessarily require rate cuts yet.
After this wave E, we can enter our usual end of year pump.
