MTPLF, DN3, 3350 : End of week breakoutnice little pennant with a 3200 target this summer. without taking coming bitcoin surge into account.
DN3 trade ideas
Wave Cycles in Price Action: Expansion and Correction DynamicsThis chart highlights how price action developed in distinct wave cycles once volume surged.
Each expansion phase was sharp, delivering multi-hundred percent gains in relatively short periods.
These expansions were consistently followed by deep corrective pullbacks of 50–70%.
The repeating rhythm shows a market structure of accumulation → expansion → correction → continuation.
Overall, the cycles emphasize the importance of recognizing both momentum opportunities and the inevitable retracements that followed.
8/5/25 - $mtplf - Starting position here @ $6.38/5/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: OTC:MTPLF
Starting position here @ $6.3
- 2.2x mnav is v diff for co of this size (i.e. growth dynamics) that can do the following vs. saylor's NASDAQ:MSTR
1/ grow faster by virtue of having 30-40x fewer bitcoin
2/ it can copy mstr's innovation, esp the stable coin STRC for local mkt
3/ has just issued to lever up on new purchases
one way of thinking about a growth-adjusted multiple could be something like this (and i'm going fast here so i can explain in comments is of interest) but a modified GG model to articulate how reasonable 3x+ mnav would be
(ROE-g) / (Kc - g) = multiple on book
ROE is BTC cagr = call it 35%
Kc cost of combined capital = combination of debt % * Kd+ equity % * Ke (more or less to keep it simple). In JP, cost of debt is a lot cheaper v US... this matters a LOT as debt grows in capital structure
g is growth - a plug here for illustrative purposes **given** it's much higher and you'll see my pt so long as numerator > denominator and therefore subtracting equal amts (growth) from both magnifies the output (book value)
(35% - 15%) / ( (30% * 10% + 70% * 40%) - 15%) = 2.5x
"yuh but V how can equity cost of capital be less than BTC cost of capital or it's hurdle" - fair point, i'm not going to get into that bc mkts just opened. i'll say, "that's the art of what those of us do that have been doing this a while". essentially it boils down to this... each business/ case/ scenario/ geo calls for a theoretical amt of debt to maximize enterprise value. that's an unknown level. here you're looking to a. optimize stacking btc without b. getting liquidated. such that we give mgmt (at metatplanet) the benefit of following saylor's tested strategy, optimized for japan's yield starved market and consider a "dollar" or "yen" stable coin at 6...7.. % interest is probably going to eat their entire MM and debt pie, of which a lot of that ultimately gets focused in CAGR'ing BTC, then "yes" actually you derisk the business as it should outperform Bitcoin in that case, as you're able to add more BTC than just holding it. it's that yield you're getting (by using debt effectively and in the right terminal proportion) that afford you a lower cost of equity capital.
anyway be well. this is a 1.5% position for perspective. i'm accumulating a lot more in the 1.5-2x zone if/when we get there. anything below 1.5x, however, is where i really get busy, maybe 5-10% position, let's see what is happening elsewhere.
V
Does Not Look GoodMetaplanet got a little ahaed of itself, not unlike MSTR last fall. Price bounced off the 3.618 and is looking for support, likely at the 1.00 fib $5.29
Breakout on high VolumeIf you want a leverage on BTCUSD and think MSTR is already to big, try Metaplanet. Next Fib. targets shown. Guess a 10-30x within this year possible
Potential Companies in the Japanese Stock MarketOh, do you see? A company that once saw no future in the Japanese stock market has shown positive signs after shifting its development policy to focus on crypto investments. I don't think this is a sign of decline (ending), but rather a new beginning from my technical analysis perspective.
