darth.stocks

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About me At a certain time you run out of greater fools... The time is now.
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Markets Allocation
29 % commodities 14 % stocks 10 % forex 47 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
XAUUSD 25% | 85 CL1! 14% | 48 SP1! 8% | 28 USDJPY 5% | 20
darth.stocks darth.stocks GDX, D, Short
GDX: GDX: And down we go again...
84 0 6
GDX, D Short
GDX: And down we go again...

From my periodicity modelling... Ideally 21 as a Target.

darth.stocks darth.stocks XAUUSD/XDRUSD, D,
XAUUSD/XDRUSD: Gold in a Currency Basket : Pure Chartology...
184 0 6
XAUUSD/XDRUSD, D
Gold in a Currency Basket : Pure Chartology...

So..., sorry Bull's. It seems that this time the Chart in XDR/WCU was telling us a bit more than with USD. If everything goes well we should see the local min by tomorrow/Wed. From Chartology we should expect a retest of the Neckline and this should be the next good short entry. 1204-1206 should be the Target for the local minimum in USD...

darth.stocks darth.stocks 100*GC1!/DXY, D,
100*GC1!/DXY: Gold: The Chartological evidence of my other View
123 0 11
100*GC1!/DXY, D
Gold: The Chartological evidence of my other View

I discussed various times the Gold/Treasuries/DXY/JPY Correlation. Here a reasonable Argument for the relevance to watch also a normalised DXY weighted Gold price against JPY and Treasuries. We had 2 nice motif completions with hitting Target almost ON POINT. The next Target is Gold in the sun 1100 Region. And remember: The spread between Gold/DXY chart and ...

darth.stocks darth.stocks CL1!, D,
CL1!: Crude Thoughts: staying neutral
128 0 10
CL1!, D
Crude Thoughts: staying neutral

Nothing from COT Data... But assuming an average 2q17 Movement the maximal upward Target is 50 but downside Risk is to high. RDS.A/RDSA usually changes direction on a bottom in Crude, but this time NOTHING. We will most likely take 48/50 out an correct back to 40... But OK, 50 to 40 are nice 20%.

darth.stocks darth.stocks GC1!, D,
GC1!: Gold: Diamonds are not forever II
54 0 9
GC1!, D
Gold: Diamonds are not forever II

COT Data do not really provide a possibility to decide to which direction the movement will be. But if we assume another "average" Movement the upper Target will be at about 1290 and downside 1170. Also with the Gold / JPYUSD correlation and with JPY COT Data it is impossible to judge which direction to go. I keep my USDJPY Target in 3q17 in 120 Region - for gold ...

darth.stocks darth.stocks PRGO, D, Long
PRGO: Perrigo: LONG Possibility
36 0 4
PRGO, D Long
Perrigo: LONG Possibility

A nice 75 % Possibility! Waiting on a clear Signal.

darth.stocks darth.stocks GC1!, 60, Short
GC1!: Gold: Short today
65 0 8
GC1!, 60 Short
Gold: Short today

Europe Close on EOW is always a good short opportunity. 1h Chart showing shs formation wit 1220 Target Region..

darth.stocks darth.stocks SP1!, D, Short
SP1!: S&P 500: seems to be finally starting
80 1 8
SP1!, D Short
S&P 500: seems to be finally starting

So, in my last Ideas on S&P500 I suggested a correction according to Tom's ED Liquidity Indicator. It is some bit of diffffficult to get his shift fro Graphs on his Web Page, and It seems that I missed it by about 15 Days... I do not expect a major correction since HYG and JNK would have lost dramatically, but I keep the Target of 2300-2350 shifted by some day's. ...

darth.stocks darth.stocks EURUSD, D, Short
EURUSD: eurusd : nice short squeeze today
290 2 13
EURUSD, D Short
eurusd : nice short squeeze today

After Mario D.'s comments today we had a quite significant movement..., but from COT Data further upward movement is really limited. Commercials are %NetShort above LT average, COT Index is in SELL Region and Noncommercial Long/Short Ratio is significantly above average!!! 115 should be the limit, but a really nice possibility for a short. Also check DX1! and TY1! !!!

darth.stocks darth.stocks TY1!, D, Short
TY1!: 10y Treasury Furures: Sell and run for your life
75 0 4
TY1!, D Short
10y Treasury Furures: Sell and run for your life

COT Data at extremes. It's going to be a massacre...

darth.stocks darth.stocks DX1!, D, Long
DX1!: DXY: The only Way is UP
64 0 4
DX1!, D Long
DXY: The only Way is UP

This was massive in recent weeks... The COT Data show a massive deviation from long, mid and short Term averages. Consistent with JY COT Data (Target there above 120), we should expect soon a correction to 105 - 110 in DXY.

darth.stocks darth.stocks CL1!, D,
CL1!: Crude Thoughts: Ideally till 39...
169 1 5
CL1!, D
Crude Thoughts: Ideally till 39...

Hoping for the 39... and change of COT Data to longer term average...

darth.stocks darth.stocks GC1!, D,
GC1!: Gold: Diamonds are not forever...
93 0 3
GC1!, D
Gold: Diamonds are not forever...

An upward Trend Chanel and an downward Trend Chanel! Forming a nice Diamond Formation... From Gold COT Data movements in either direction are possible. From correlation with USDJPY a downward correction with 1015 as Target seems more likely. 1530 or 1015? 1015 or 1530? Or both in that order?

darth.stocks darth.stocks XAUUSD/XDRUSD, D, Short
XAUUSD/XDRUSD: Gold: easier to judge in Currency Basket
184 0 9
XAUUSD/XDRUSD, D Short
Gold: easier to judge in Currency Basket

As usually when COT and Charts (in USD) do not tell as much as I would like... Here the Gold Chart agains Currency Baskets. XAUXDR is about to complete SHS Formation and should Target Gold in USD of about 1150...

darth.stocks darth.stocks XAU+HUI, D,
XAU+HUI: PM Miners : Neutral till FED Decision
77 0 5
XAU+HUI, D
PM Miners : Neutral till FED Decision

Working hard to refine my periodicity modelling, but seems to predict reasonably top's and bottom's. We have the special case that tomorrow's cycle bottom coincides with FED meeting, so depending on USDJPY short time movement it is reasonable to go neutral till Wed. evening or Thursday. The range of movement of GDX is rather limited. We should expect a 20.50 to 24 ...

darth.stocks darth.stocks SP1!, D, Short
SP1!: S&P500 : should be a short !!!
93 0 8
SP1!, D Short
S&P500 : should be a short !!!

Just republishing last week's private Idea on Tom McClellan's Eurodollar Liquidity indicator. I was suggesting a decline starting Thu/Fri... It seems it really started! I'm expecting a decline till max. 2250-2300 and a Rally till at least 2600-2650 later on this Year.

darth.stocks darth.stocks CL1!, W,
CL1!: Crude Thoughts: mixed feelings - neutral but preparing
155 0 7
CL1!, W
Crude Thoughts: mixed feelings - neutral but preparing

No clear Idea, but most likely movement is to 50 at cross resistance. From Chart we broke rising wedge and retested lower boundary, so even a move to 30-35 Region is possible. Also from most recent COT Data. Waiting now....

darth.stocks darth.stocks GC1!, D, Short
GC1!: Gold: short till 1230
125 0 8
GC1!, D Short
Gold: short till 1230

Finally again some clear COT Data... Correction started Wed. and should continue for a while till about 1230. From COT Data this is possible and definitely not exaggerating. But we should be aware that a bearish 3 drives Pattern will be building with a short term Target (beg. Aug) of 1310-1320 and a correction Target in the sub 1200 Region.

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