darth.stocks

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About me At a certain time you run out of greater fools... The time is now.
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Markets Allocation
28 % commodities 14 % stocks 10 % forex 49 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
XAUUSD 26% | 84 CL1! 14% | 46 SP1! 8% | 27 USDJPY 6% | 20
darth.stocks darth.stocks XAUUSD/XDRUSD, D, Short ,
XAUUSD/XDRUSD: Gold: easier to judge in Currency Basket
148 0 8
XAUUSD/XDRUSD, D Short
Gold: easier to judge in Currency Basket

As usually when COT and Charts (in USD) do not tell as much as I would like... Here the Gold Chart agains Currency Baskets. XAUXDR is about to complete SHS Formation and should Target Gold in USD of about 1150...

darth.stocks darth.stocks XAU+HUI, D,
XAU+HUI: PM Miners : Neutral till FED Decision
40 0 5
XAU+HUI, D
PM Miners : Neutral till FED Decision

Working hard to refine my periodicity modelling, but seems to predict reasonably top's and bottom's. We have the special case that tomorrow's cycle bottom coincides with FED meeting, so depending on USDJPY short time movement it is reasonable to go neutral till Wed. evening or Thursday. The range of movement of GDX is rather limited. We should expect a 20.50 to 24 ...

darth.stocks darth.stocks SP1!, D, Short ,
SP1!: S&P500 : should be a short !!!
81 0 7
SP1!, D Short
S&P500 : should be a short !!!

Just republishing last week's private Idea on Tom McClellan's Eurodollar Liquidity indicator. I was suggesting a decline starting Thu/Fri... It seems it really started! I'm expecting a decline till max. 2250-2300 and a Rally till at least 2600-2650 later on this Year.

darth.stocks darth.stocks CL1!, W,
CL1!: Crude Thoughts: mixed feelings - neutral but preparing
150 0 7
CL1!, W
Crude Thoughts: mixed feelings - neutral but preparing

No clear Idea, but most likely movement is to 50 at cross resistance. From Chart we broke rising wedge and retested lower boundary, so even a move to 30-35 Region is possible. Also from most recent COT Data. Waiting now....

darth.stocks darth.stocks GC1!, D, Short ,
GC1!: Gold: short till 1230
86 0 6
GC1!, D Short
Gold: short till 1230

Finally again some clear COT Data... Correction started Wed. and should continue for a while till about 1230. From COT Data this is possible and definitely not exaggerating. But we should be aware that a bearish 3 drives Pattern will be building with a short term Target (beg. Aug) of 1310-1320 and a correction Target in the sub 1200 Region.

darth.stocks darth.stocks SP1!, D, Long ,
SP1!: S&P 500 : View on McClellan ED Liquidity indicator
53 0 3
SP1!, D Long
S&P 500 : View on McClellan ED Liquidity indicator

A little view on Tom's famous ED indicator. If he is right with ED Liquidity having an effect on S&P500 we should see a smaller correction till middle of June, but than quite a significant rally till April 2018. With a major correction...

darth.stocks darth.stocks GDX, D,
GDX: GDX: long
111 0 6
GDX, D
GDX: long

Testing my periodicity model. Ideally a long till 23.90-24 . Than down again....

darth.stocks darth.stocks RRC, D, Long ,
RRC: Range Resources: nice 35 % possible
89 1 7
RRC, D Long
Range Resources: nice 35 % possible

We had a movement in a quite well defined channel that turned to a falling wedge. Since we are reaching long term support we should believe that bottom is in....

darth.stocks darth.stocks SP1!, D, Long ,
SP1!: SP1!: irrational Melt Up
53 0 3
SP1!, D Long
SP1!: irrational Melt Up

Followers maybe have realised that that I am since quite a time bullish on S&P 500. Within the last few quarters we have seen a consolidation of Commercials Positioning within a narrow "correction" movement. From Quarter to Quarter we saw a 200 Point movement and from we should see a similar movement again. Target is 2500-2550 in beginning of 3Q17. Maybe even ...

darth.stocks darth.stocks EURUSD, D, Short ,
EURUSD: EURUSD: COT Data extreme !
101 0 10
EURUSD, D Short
EURUSD: COT Data extreme !

Last time we had these kind of COT DATA Eur tanked...

darth.stocks darth.stocks CL1!, D, Long ,
CL1!: Crude Thoughts: Will they ever learn....?
116 0 5
CL1!, D Long
Crude Thoughts: Will they ever learn....?

Same behaviour a last time: exaggerating in hope, panic correction and than back to reality... Correction is even in the same range. Since we start from higher prices, we should suppose to get a higher High.

darth.stocks darth.stocks XAUUSD, D, Short ,
XAUUSD: Gold: continuing with my nasty view
158 0 8
XAUUSD, D Short
Gold: continuing with my nasty view

Since Dec we are in Bear Flag uptrend and we are retesting the lower resistance since quite a few days... From traditional Chart School it is reasonable to start a short. But we are finally coming to a decision region from the chart. Either we break upper mid term resistance and confirm that we are in a new Bull run, or the long term uptrend is over... Make or ...

darth.stocks darth.stocks GC1!, D, Short ,
GC1!: Gold: staying nasty to BULLS, staying short
69 0 4
GC1!, D Short
Gold: staying nasty to BULLS, staying short

If we do not finally break long term resistance a sell off like in Apr 13 might be possible. We have similar COT positioning in Gold and in USDJPY, so waiting for a clear signal from Japan. But still expecting a Bull run in H2 2017...

darth.stocks darth.stocks CL1!, D, Long ,
CL1!: Crude Thoughts: 55-56 should be in...
159 1 5
CL1!, D Long
Crude Thoughts: 55-56 should be in...

So, similar Commercials Positioning as last time, similar behaviour before Meeting and we should expect at least a similar surge on expected similar decision... RDS/XOM is already where Crude should be.

darth.stocks darth.stocks GC1!, D, Short ,
GC1!: Gold: 1160-1180 primary target
88 0 7
GC1!, D Short
Gold: 1160-1180 primary target

Be aware that in recent weeks only positions were closed... We had a "clean-up" of much to bullish positioning of last year. From long term chart we should be aware that es still can tumble below 1000 if we don't break falling wedge soon... With the beginning lack of interest in physical gold we are in danger do see a similar behaviour like April 2013. Still ...

darth.stocks darth.stocks CL1!, D, Long ,
CL1!: Crude thoughts...: long times
168 0 6
CL1!, D Long
Crude thoughts...: long times

Hmmm, we had some bit of panic recently... But does someone know why? NetShort% of Commercials back to 15%, and this is really good news for bulls. We should see prices going back to 53-55 soon, but if we don't finally break rising wedge to the upside I'll really get bearish...

darth.stocks darth.stocks GDX, D, Short ,
GDX: GDX: back on short side
137 2 9
GDX, D Short
GDX: back on short side

With a finer grain and on a 4h timescale we should have reached intermediate top... Next decline should be a stronger one.

darth.stocks darth.stocks GDX, D, Long ,
GDX: Miners: intermediate correction - testing neutral to long
146 0 11
GDX, D Long
Miners: intermediate correction - testing neutral to long

I discussed various times the periodicity in gdx/gdxj and it's relation to JPYUSD. A single period as previously suggested is certainly a bit to easy, so I took a bit of time and modelled on various time scales. Follows quite reasonably...Till May 12th we should see a neutral/upward movement and from 12-24 another correction... Major low should be expected in ...

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