darth.stocks

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About me At a certain time you run out of greater fools... The time is now.
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Markets Allocation
27 % commodities 14 % stocks 10 % forex 50 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
XAUUSD 26% | 82 CL1! 14% | 44 SP1! 7% | 24 USDJPY 6% | 20
darth.stocks darth.stocks GC1!, D, Short ,
GC1!: Gold: staying nasty to BULLS, staying short
48 0 4
GC1!, D Short
Gold: staying nasty to BULLS, staying short

If we do not finally break long term resistance a sell off like in Apr 13 might be possible. We have similar COT positioning in Gold and in USDJPY, so waiting for a clear signal from Japan. But still expecting a Bull run in H2 2017...

darth.stocks darth.stocks CL1!, D, Long ,
CL1!: Crude Thoughts: 55-56 should be in...
123 1 5
CL1!, D Long
Crude Thoughts: 55-56 should be in...

So, similar Commercials Positioning as last time, similar behaviour before Meeting and we should expect at least a similar surge on expected similar decision... RDS/XOM is already where Crude should be.

darth.stocks darth.stocks GC1!, D, Short ,
GC1!: Gold: 1160-1180 primary target
82 0 7
GC1!, D Short
Gold: 1160-1180 primary target

Be aware that in recent weeks only positions were closed... We had a "clean-up" of much to bullish positioning of last year. From long term chart we should be aware that es still can tumble below 1000 if we don't break falling wedge soon... With the beginning lack of interest in physical gold we are in danger do see a similar behaviour like April 2013. Still ...

darth.stocks darth.stocks CL1!, D, Long ,
CL1!: Crude thoughts...: long times
163 0 6
CL1!, D Long
Crude thoughts...: long times

Hmmm, we had some bit of panic recently... But does someone know why? NetShort% of Commercials back to 15%, and this is really good news for bulls. We should see prices going back to 53-55 soon, but if we don't finally break rising wedge to the upside I'll really get bearish...

darth.stocks darth.stocks GDX, D, Short ,
GDX: GDX: back on short side
124 2 9
GDX, D Short
GDX: back on short side

With a finer grain and on a 4h timescale we should have reached intermediate top... Next decline should be a stronger one.

darth.stocks darth.stocks GDX, D, Long ,
GDX: Miners: intermediate correction - testing neutral to long
131 0 11
GDX, D Long
Miners: intermediate correction - testing neutral to long

I discussed various times the periodicity in gdx/gdxj and it's relation to JPYUSD. A single period as previously suggested is certainly a bit to easy, so I took a bit of time and modelled on various time scales. Follows quite reasonably...Till May 12th we should see a neutral/upward movement and from 12-24 another correction... Major low should be expected in ...

darth.stocks darth.stocks TY1!, D, Short ,
TY1!: US Treasury Futures : Short Squeeze over
63 0 4
TY1!, D Short
US Treasury Futures : Short Squeeze over

I am not really following and trading 10Y Futures, but rather watching them as an indicator. From the current COT Data, the short squeeze should be over. Worth going short again. I guess yields (us10Y) should go back to 2.6 and on delivery of Trump Administration to 2.8-3.0. US30Y should go back to 3.3-3.4.

darth.stocks darth.stocks FTP, W, Long ,
FTP: Fortress Paper: staying long
22 0 4
FTP, W Long
Fortress Paper: staying long

Another of my last year's Suggestions... The company has a market capitalisation of about 100 mil USD, but for sure it is difficult to judge how much a company creating all the high security papers for European CB's is worth...

darth.stocks darth.stocks MTFB, D, Long ,
MTFB: Motif Bio: 1000% surge realistic
318 0 2
MTFB, D Long
Motif Bio: 1000% surge realistic

Some time ago I introduced Motif Bio (currently 70 Mil Market Capit.), an UK based Biotec company that pushed a phase iii trial with ICLAPRIM through... Phase III results are on the Company's Web Site. Iclaprim is likely to get a fast track approval by FDA. This years target is in the range of 80-100p. But be aware, MRSA is a multi bill. USD Market and I rather ...

darth.stocks darth.stocks SI1!, D, Short ,
SI1!: SI1!: keep it short
62 1 3
SI1!, D Short
SI1!: keep it short

Correction started a bit later than expected, but should continue. Be aware that we are at extreme positioning of Commercials and managed money. NetShort% of 50 is extreme! There is not that much upward momentum possible. On correction to long term average 13 handle is possible. I hope that's it for 2q17 and we can get bullish again, but I am not that sure.

darth.stocks darth.stocks EURUSD, D, Short ,
EURUSD: EURUSD: parity looming
76 0 4
EURUSD, D Short
EURUSD: parity looming

I am not really following and trading EURUSD, but current commercial positioning is in the range when Eurusd was 1.39... On correction to long term average positioning 1.02 should be expected. And gaps will be closed...

darth.stocks darth.stocks XAUUSD, 15, Short ,
XAUUSD: Gold: next daily short...
321 0 7
XAUUSD, 15 Short
Gold: next daily short...

With USDJPY below 110 a Goldprice back at 1270 is OK, but since 110 is a strong support it is reasonable to try another short on gold....

darth.stocks darth.stocks RIG, 240, Long ,
RIG: Offshore Drillers...: on Brent above 55 the gap should be closed
69 0 5
RIG, 240 Long
Offshore Drillers...: on Brent above 55 the gap should be closed

I guess 15 on RIG is reasonable on rising UKOIL. Maybe 17...

darth.stocks darth.stocks XAGUSD, D, Short ,
XAGUSD: Silver Correction started
160 0 11
XAGUSD, D Short
Silver Correction started

Currently we have a more extreme COT positioning than last August. We should see a reasonably fast correction to 16.8 and on break to 16-16.3. On further downside we should see the next support at 15-15.5 but with a completion of a head and shoulders formation. In this case the chart gets "quite a bearish" bias... Currently expecting a move in the range of 3.50-4 USD.

darth.stocks darth.stocks CL1!, D, Long ,
CL1!: Crude thoughts: targeting 60
288 9 12
CL1!, D Long
Crude thoughts: targeting 60

While having a really limited downward potential of about 3 USD, the current (last Tuesday) COT Data give hope for a relatively smooth rise till 60 USD. In fact Noncommercials Long positions of 343K are really in the range of long term average. On rise of commercials NetShort % from currently 18 to short term average (3 Months) of 22%, we should be in the range of ...

darth.stocks darth.stocks XAUUSD, 15, Short ,
XAUUSD: Gold: daily shorts starting again...
159 0 10
XAUUSD, 15 Short
Gold: daily shorts starting again...

Could be worth trying, especially after Europe close...

darth.stocks darth.stocks USDJPY, D, Long ,
USDJPY: USDJPY: Cup-Handle/BullFlag
173 0 12
USDJPY, D Long
USDJPY: Cup-Handle/BullFlag

We soon should see the next upward move! Maybe another test of 109 handle, but targeting 125...

darth.stocks darth.stocks GC1!, D, Short ,
GC1!: Gold: still difficult times...
194 3 11
GC1!, D Short
Gold: still difficult times...

From COT Data a move till 1400-1450 (even 1500) is possible, but also a similar move to downside... I've discussed various times the Gold/GDX correlation with treasuries, JPYUSD and DXY, so time for my "secret" indicator TLT*JPYUSD/DXY . I guess most of you will be able to see the strict correlation with the Gold price following "quite well"... Hmm, could be ...

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