UPWK - Upside is huge
beautiful I H&S pattern emerging. Right shoulder is still building. Longer it takes to break out, bigger the move.
Presents great R/R as stop loss at 13 should ensure good cushion.
Long via commons at 14.
UP2 trade ideas
Upwork.....Great risk/reward. Tighter stop loss possible!Hello Trader,
Upwork is an English-language platform where clients can post short-term or long-term jobs and projects to freelancers worldwide (Ticker: UPWK @NASDAQ)!
It's been a wild ride for the stock in 2023, but the odds are that a new advance is just around the corner. To do so, the stock needs to break above the upper border of the rectangle at $14.60 in the coming days.
A pop out of the rectangle with high volume opens the door to $15.88, the 2023 high. More bullish potential is at hand.
A break below the lower border (@ $13.51), on the other hand, opens the door from consolidation to a steeper correction, after a huge rally from Nov 02 @ $9.56 to $15.- on Nov 08!
Traders who would like to play this possible move with an options trade can do so as described. The risk/reward is great, and it can get even better if the stock breaks above the 2023 high.
Again. Entry at $15.88 (high volume required) and stop loss at $13.51 (or a few ticks lower)!
Take the stopp-loss if you want to break even quickly, sit back and enjoy.
Have a great week.....
Ruebennase
Please ask or comment as needed.
Trading based on this analysis is at your own risk.
LONG ON UPWORK - GREAT SWINGERUpwork is a great organization that everyone should see the value in - the growth of globalization and 3rd party contractors has exploded helping companies cut annual salary costs and giving skilled people in developing countries opportunities they may have never had.
They crushed earnings, now see a pull back. buy at 9.67ish area and exit around 11.70s
Upwork price weakness could be a gift for its 5 year growth Upwork is at fair value now, cheap for next year, and potential could grow to a 50-100$ stock over 5 years.
Upwork is a freelancer marketplace and recently partnered with Open ai (chat GPT) to provide enterprises access to ai freelance experts and learning.
Better value then megacaps:
Upwork roughly has a earnings yield of 3% plus for this year 2023, which is not over yet but coming to a close. This price to earnings of 31 is similar to the megacap stocks like Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Facebook. Thats a high PE for any business, and usually inplies a high growth rate in order to command that premium valuation. Upwork, however, isnt a megacap, has more room to rise, and has a higher growth rate potentially than the megacaps.
Next year 2024:
Next year Upwork is expected to earn 64 cents per share, almost doubling its earnings from this years .37 cents. Using a multiple PE of 25 could land the stock in the 16 dollar range or higher. 25% a year growth in earnings could also command a higher premium if investors anticipate continued year over year growth in the future.
5 year growth potential:
Through 2028, over the next 5 years, analysts believe the stock could grow to 1.90 per share (earnings expectations pulled from seekingalpha). Using the same 25 multiple x the 1.90, we estimate a potential valuation of 47.50 for 2028. As we see today many stocks trading at twice the growth rate for PE multiple, and in order to motivate long term investing, we can estimate a 2x growth rate multiple of 95 potential for 2028. In good times, growth stocks commonly trade at 2x multiple for their growth rates in anticipation of further growth in coming years. So now we have 47.50 and 95 as a potential 5 year upside price.
Low debt and already free cashflow positive:
Many growth or speculative stocks arent even profitable or require too much capital as they scale. Upwork doesnt have that problem, they are already free cashflow positive and have low debt.
8 to 10 price possible in weakness:
Based on its price action this year, and with the help of a weak broad market, it wouldnt surprise me to see upwk fall back to the 10 level or even lower to the 8 price in a major sell off. In that event, the earnings yield on UPWK could go from the 3% range to potentially a near 5% earnings yield for this year 2023. A high 4% or near 5% earnings yield would be very interesting for a stock with 20-25% annual growth potential. The compounding of growth at that price entry would be attractive.
Summary:
Upwork has major growth potential over next 5 years, so keep track of it in case of weakness in the broad market. 50 to 100 in 5 years is possible, so the more it falls now could help open a discount to future value. Hope for a sell off in the 8-10 range.
$UPWK after earnings after a surprise in earnings on 2nd Aug, the price action looks very good
big volume, gap up, above all MAs, and holding 10dma very nicely
if long, I would close my position if the price closes under 20dma
UPWK - emerging from base (buy the dips)UPWK has been forming a base with neckline around 14.50 -15.35. Upon earnings announcement yesterday, it gapped up decisively on huge volume, rising a crazy 44%, and closing right at neckline.
What is clear is that it could be near the end of its base building and could begin to start trending up in the coming weeks.
The entry is tricky now due to its oversized move in a single day, hence I would prefer to see some pullback from here to look for opportunity to enter at the dips (fib-retracement level, candlestick reversal setups etc)
A more conservative approach is long only when it has cleared the neckline above 15.35. It may sound counter-intuitive to buy at hgher prices but in actual the odds of a sustainable trend is also increased when the stock is able to clear a significant resistence (namely, the neckline).
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is (probably the most) important! Take care and Good Luck!
UPWK Upwork Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of UPWK Upwork prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 10usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $1.92.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Bullish Alert : UPWKBullish alert at the (possible) bottom of this downtrend wave that cut the price by 90%.
The alert came together with the breakout of the trendline.
Waiting now for positive crossover AND a good price action.
Bullish Falling Wedge Pattern Forming on $UPWKHey Traders! Today, I want to share an exciting technical analysis discovery I made on the stock of Upwork Inc. ( NASDAQ:UPWK ). It seems that a bullish falling wedge pattern is forming, indicating a potential reversal in the near future. Let's dive into the details!
📈 Ticker: NASDAQ:UPWK
📅 Timeframe: Daily Chart
📊 Pattern: Falling Wedge
📉 What is a Falling Wedge?
A falling wedge is a bullish chart pattern characterized by a contracting range between two downward sloping trendlines. It typically forms during a downtrend and signifies a potential bullish reversal. This pattern suggests that the selling pressure is diminishing, and buyers may soon regain control, driving the price higher.
🔍 Identifying the Falling Wedge on NASDAQ:UPWK :
By analyzing the daily chart of NASDAQ:UPWK , we can observe the following:
1️⃣ A clear downtrend in the stock's price over the past few weeks.
2️⃣ Two converging trendlines: The upper trendline connects the lower highs, while the lower trendline connects the lower lows.
3️⃣ Decreasing trading volume as the pattern develops, indicating a decline in selling pressure.
📈 Price Targets and Trading Strategy:
If the falling wedge pattern plays out as anticipated, we can expect a potential bullish breakout above the upper trendline. This breakout could trigger a bullish rally, possibly reaching the following price targets:
1️⃣ Target 1: Resistance level near $40.00
2️⃣ Target 2: Psychological resistance level near $45.00
🛡️ Risk Management:
As with any trading strategy, it is essential to manage risk effectively. Consider implementing the following risk management techniques:
1️⃣ Set a stop-loss order below the lower trendline to protect against unexpected price movements.
2️⃣ Adjust position size according to your risk tolerance and overall portfolio management strategy.
🔔 Conclusion:
Keep an eye on Upwork Inc. ( NASDAQ:UPWK ) as it develops this falling wedge pattern. The formation suggests a potential bullish reversal in the near future. However, remember that technical analysis is not foolproof, and market conditions can change rapidly. Combine this analysis with other relevant factors before making any trading decisions.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Happy Trading! 📈💰
#TechnicalAnalysis #FallingWedgePattern #UPWK #BullishReversal #TradingView
BUY UPWK LONGBought a large quantity of shares today will call options. I believe in great gains here.
UPWK Entering Phase E Markup On Shorter TimeframeWyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1 almost complete on a short term timeframe.
Longer term..
Risk is 10%, reward is 120-200%.
Stop loss and invalidation are clearly outlined (at 10% below current price.)
Stock has formed a technical double bottom (textbook) over the last 4 months, and completed this formation with strong support yesterday.
Stock has inverse correlation with most equities (think covid darlings that spiked in times of turmoil).
Stock is strongly correlated with unemployment rates. Rising interest rates tighten credit conditions , revenues should slow.. increasing unemployment. The whole point of all of this is to only slow interest rate hikes when the market shows it's responding to high interest rates. This is evident through unemployment statistics, and inflation growth. We look to inflation to suggest that interest rate hikes are having an impact, we look to unemployment to confirm it. Higher unemployment is coming, which means objective upward pressure for this stock.
Company is buying back debt from convertible notes it has issued, reducing it's overall debt obligation by around 30% (press release yesterday).
A reputable firm analyzed the stock the other day, and placed a 100% price target based on competition and all known pressures on the stock being "well discounted, and well priced in".
Company is increasing their prices as of today by 50% on their most expensive products, and dropping their prices 50% on their cheapest products.
Company has an analyst consensus (average of all) of 62% increase in price from current price.
Stock is down 83% since it's last high, 512 days ago.
Company has surprised revenue expectations for the last 8 consecutive quarters.
Stock has created bullish divergence on the RSI (relative strength index) on long term timeframes , indicating that buyers stepped in to support price in this range 3-4 months ago.
Company is reaching the end of a technical pennant by May 11 2023, and will have a substantial increase in volatility before that time. The pennant is building pressure, consolidating price within a range and coiling the shorter term moving averages, building momentum for a technical breakout.
Upwork isn't going anywhere. Buy. DYOR.
UPWK - Head and Shoulders InverseOn the chart, we can see an inverted head and shoulder, which is ready to breakout.
We expect it to go to the upside, whereas we will take an entry at the breakout of the neckline.
This will give us a ROI of 18%.
More details are shown on the chart
$UPWK W/ Earnings this week and clean cypher set up I will be watching $UPWK, hoping to catch this off 786 trigger level w candle action to minimize the risk (tighten stop loss)
Watch price action off 618 level as the spinning top doji close can bring in buyers.
Tp's are shown, Tp1 stop is to entry, tp 4 is 16.50$, not shown in chart.
I will post entry if I get a good one w lower risk, 3-4x risk to reward is not worth the time, at all for me :)
UPWK More Downside in Falling WedgeUpwork is in a long-term (for the stock) falling wedge (on log scale) since its triple top. It's shown relative weakness vs the market and still has more room for the downside for much of 2023.
Upwork Inverse H&SUPWORK has created an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Suggesting an primary price target of $35 (100%). Once the H&S has finished, perhaps a retracement of a golden pocket before next move.
$UPWK ~ Beautiful wave structure...As shown, beautiful EW structure. Still has a little more correcting to do, but should provide an amazing opportunity soon. Will be tracking very closely and may take a position.
Upwork Showing a weekly small double bottom here. Daily buy volume came in on that area. We need to see a break and hold above 19.10 as if this falling wedge wants to break to the upside could taget 28$. Of course in this bearish market upside is hard to imagine Howver that volume coming in is surprising would at least have to stoploss below the second low of 16.96
Cup & handle Pattern on $UpWorkPotential Cup & Handle Pattern forming
Tell me what you think
not financial advise
Put playUPWK, like all its counterpart. it is defalting. looking for gap fill under. It will be a buy after the gap fil.
could bounce here, but im nuetral at the moment upwk approaching its last line off support. If we bounce here and break 39.71 my price targets are 50.39-58.98
below 30 theres not much support and we can hit 18.73
staying neutral until we see a clear break to either direction.
like and follow for more! 💘
Long $UPWK a bit of technical, a bit of fundamental analysis
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