The last 3-year trend and the long-term 10-year trend have now broken ~FALLING KNIFE~ style.
PLUG has been a poster child for hydrogen. It may be most prominently known for providing fuel cell delivery vehicles to Amazon.
There are several issues PLUG faces. To name a few:
There are not enough electrolyzers to produce green hydrogen
The price of green...
2024 could be another terrible year for renewables.
Renewable stocks have done terribly since inflation picked up. With high rates and therefore high costs of capital, renewables projects "with the promise of zero-to-no OpEx" are facing CapEx rates that are having companies and individuals pull out of renewables commitments one after the other.
Head and shoulders on the daily chart. Neckline around 66. This is either a buy point or the sign to buy.
High of 76 tested a few times over the last few weeks. H&S could lead to $56, $60, or $63. Support ranges.
Nibble all the way down...?!
ENPH is facing headwinds from multiple directions.
After a few years of sky high valuations, it is being looked at with fundamentals. Current PE of 30, so we could reasonably fall to a PE of 20 if the broader market crashes or if the CleanTech bubble (continues to) pop.
Either 10% down from here ~$108 or 50% down from here ~$59 are plausible IMO.
I like what...
LT support line drawn has been support since 1985. With over 35 years of support for the trend, I say buy the dips. Relatively easy stop loss below the trendline.
If we break channel... LT trend change and CAUTION.
If we don't break channel... happy days!
RKLB has a summer-bubble and was finally able to break and stay above ~$5.25/share. This bubble was unfortunately a head and shoulders, which, after today's failed launch, saw acceleration to the downside.
Now we're solidly in the middle of what I hope is a new, large descending wedge. Hopefully we see bottoming out around $4/share or even $3.50/share again.
Huge gains and huge losses possible here. 2018-2022 we had almost 2 full years of whiplash between these values before the COVID BUBBLE sent us higher.
Are we back and ready to bounce around here?
Huge swing trade potential if this proves itself out.
We've had a lot of symmetry forming this long-term cup. Hopefully it becomes a cup and handle and we're all happy.
Bulls enjoy euphoria of long-term ~to the moon~ mentality on the back end, and Michael Burry exits his short at the bottom of the handle ($340-360?).
Once we double top at $400 and complete the cup, we can get back to our long-term trendlines of...
Since 1986, NEE has had a very stable long-term resistance line. In 2019, we broke bullish above this line and have enjoyed "renewable energy euphoria" since then.
However, we have:
(1) VERY CLEAN symmetric round topping going on
(2) We are re-testing and BREAKING BELOW the long-term resistance line. Perhaps we will re-test and call it support
Could we go to the moon from here? Absolutely.
However, on the monthly chart we are bouncing off of what has historically been a long-term resistance level, ORANGE (with few exceptions--any trip above is short-lived).
I'm not sure we're heading back to YELLOW unless something extreme happens, but this PURPLE line is looking great as the 'near-term' support level...
SPOT has historically traded very technically. It'll break support/resistance, re-test, then continue on it's way for a while.
After our latest straight-line bull run we've effectively re-tested support, and are now hitting a new long-term resistance line. If this trend continues, we'll dip down to around $135 to the next support level.
If you missed the latest bull run...
SHOP just retested the latest weekly bear flag and is bouncing off of it
SHOP is validating a new resistance trendline
--> This all may put SHOP in the $40s through Q1 2024. That's my going to be my level to buy.
A historical look at each time Fed rates have gone up and down over the last 25 years.
Conventional education teaches us that as rates go up, stock (prices) go down.... but looking at the last 25 years, it seems like stocks go down when rates go down.
Am I missing something?
Assuming that rates will go down, this trend could mean stocks go down (possibly to...
Since early 2021 we've followed a downward channel and had 3 symmetrically timed peaks. I'm proposing we may hit a 4th high of ~$24/share around May 2023.
Each rally has been >100-200%
Each crash has been ~60%
Each crash has been followed by a rally before hitting lower lows
2 possible entry points:
$12.50-14.00/share (near prior lows - this would also...
We broke beneath the long-term support line a few weeks ago (barely), and for the first time ever for the stock, our key MAs have crossed bearish on the monthly. That's 2 strikes against this one... Next key support is $30-$40 range, meaning another 50% down from here.