BE cyclical every 2-3 months. Buy the dips. Expect growth 2025+
Fundamentals:
1) BE produces fuel cells that can consume both hydrogen and natural gas. This natural gas component is key as it will allow its customers to smooth their transition from NG to H2.
2) BE is starting to produce electrolyzers. Cheap green hydrogen is hard to come by. Electrolyzers are effectively fuel cells operated in reverse. As such, the 2 GW US-based electrolyzer capacity announced in 2023 is key.
3. BE in their 05/23/2023, 2023 Investor Conference announced 30-35% revenue CAGR proejctions through 2031E. This includes expansion into new sectors (such as CCUS), but it's good to hear this ambition.
4. According to the Frost and Sullivan 2023 report “Stationary Fuel Cell Growth Opportunities," BE is “by far” the market leader in the stationary fuel cell market... the global fuel cell market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.4% between 2022 and 2030, with revenue increasing from $1.06 billion to $3.33 billion, and that Bloom is the leading market competitor in the U.S., and the #2 company in South Korea and Europe.
5. Caution a thin balance sheet....
Technicals:
A) Since February 2021 highs, there have been 7 drops of 50% or more. This is all part of a long-term downward facing wedge that may not break until well into 2025.
B) The $9.51 low on October 30, 2023 shows the LT prior lows trendline is support. If we break this, support at ~$9 or ~$8 is plausible. If we hold this, buy points between $9.50 and ~$11.00 may be attractive.
C) Weekly 50 SMA is current resistance and should be watched.
D) Every 2-3 months we cycle between highs and lows. Patience on this one is key.
1) BE produces fuel cells that can consume both hydrogen and natural gas. This natural gas component is key as it will allow its customers to smooth their transition from NG to H2.
2) BE is starting to produce electrolyzers. Cheap green hydrogen is hard to come by. Electrolyzers are effectively fuel cells operated in reverse. As such, the 2 GW US-based electrolyzer capacity announced in 2023 is key.
3. BE in their 05/23/2023, 2023 Investor Conference announced 30-35% revenue CAGR proejctions through 2031E. This includes expansion into new sectors (such as CCUS), but it's good to hear this ambition.
4. According to the Frost and Sullivan 2023 report “Stationary Fuel Cell Growth Opportunities," BE is “by far” the market leader in the stationary fuel cell market... the global fuel cell market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.4% between 2022 and 2030, with revenue increasing from $1.06 billion to $3.33 billion, and that Bloom is the leading market competitor in the U.S., and the #2 company in South Korea and Europe.
5. Caution a thin balance sheet....
Technicals:
A) Since February 2021 highs, there have been 7 drops of 50% or more. This is all part of a long-term downward facing wedge that may not break until well into 2025.
B) The $9.51 low on October 30, 2023 shows the LT prior lows trendline is support. If we break this, support at ~$9 or ~$8 is plausible. If we hold this, buy points between $9.50 and ~$11.00 may be attractive.
C) Weekly 50 SMA is current resistance and should be watched.
D) Every 2-3 months we cycle between highs and lows. Patience on this one is key.
Comment:
Nearly testing support of the LT trend line (since Oct 2019). If $10.50 breaks, we may be heading for $9.00 or $7.50 levels