Dow Jones Wave Analysis โ 18 August 2025
- Dow Jones reversed from strong resistance level 45000.00
- Likely to fall to support level 44500.00
Dow Jones index recently reversed down from the resistance zone located between the strong resistance level 45000.00 (which has been reversing the price from the end of 2024) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Shooting Star.
Given the strength of the resistance level 45000.00 and the overbought daily Stochastic, Dow Jones index can be expected to fall to the next support level 44500.00.
US30 trade ideas
US30 UPDATE - Preparing to SHORTDear Friends in Trading,
How I see it,
Zoomed in on 1HR
Price is at a very strong resistance area at this time.
Multiple rejections especially on bigger timeframes increases the potential to
to fall towards the PIVOT/POC area as per my 4HR analysis.
Keynote:
Only a clear and decisive breach above 45018, can potentially rally towards 45140
I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight
Thank you for taking the time study my analysis.
Dow Jones Index Analysis (US30 / Dow Jones):The index is currently trading in a bullish trend on the broader outlook, while moving within a corrective downward channel on the hourly timeframe.
๐บ Bullish Scenario:
If the bullish momentum continues and the price holds above the 44,970 level, it may target 45,000 followed by 45,200.
๐ป Bearish Scenario:
If the price breaks below the nearby support at 44,870 and stabilizes under it, this may push the index toward testing 44,770, and continued selling pressure could extend the decline toward 44,500.
US30 | Geopolitics in Focus โ Key Pivot at 44950US30 Overview
Geopolitics dominates before the Fed takes the stage.
Putinโs position remains that Ukraine should cede all territory Russia has occupied โ and even areas it has failed to capture in more than three years of fighting. This has been firmly rejected by Zelenskiy and European leaders, who will be alongside him in Washington when he meets Trump later today.
Technical Outlook:
The price holds bearish momentum toward 44720 and 44610 as long as it trades below 44950.
A 4H close above 44950 would shift the bias bullish toward 45100 and 45285.
Support: 44720, 44610, 44470
Resistance: 45100, 45285
US30 H4 | Falling towards overlap supportDow Jones (US30) is falling towards the buy entry, which is an overlap support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to the swing high.
Buy entry is at 44,267.74, which is an overlap support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 43,469.37, which is a swing low support.
Take profit is at 45,275.09, which is a swing high resistance.
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US30 โ Retest at 44,922.00After touching 45,280.00 resistance, US30 is pulling back and testing the 44,922.00 level. A hold here could keep bullish momentum intact, while a break lower may open the way toward 44,700.00 and 44,507.30.
Support at: 44,922.0 ๐ฝ | 44,700.0 ๐ฝ | 44,507.3 ๐ฝ
Resistance at: 45,280.0 ๐ผ | 45,500.0 ๐ผ
๐ Bias:
๐ผ Bullish: Holding above 44,922.0 could lead to another attempt at 45,280.0.
๐ฝ Bearish: A breakdown below 44,700.0 would weaken structure and expose 44,300.0.
๐ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
US30 BUY SETUPAccording to SMC, US30 is in a bullish trend, and there is an inducement at approximately 45,175. If order blocks are observed before the inducement, there is a valid order block at 44,798 and a valid fare value gap. A buy setup trade could be executed if the market reaches 44,798. Before executing the trade, wait for confirmation from ChoCH, candlestick analysis, or divergence.
Technical Analysis for US30 (Dow Jones) Closing Price: 44,935.4 (16th Aug 2025, 12:50 PM UTC+4)
Analysis Methods: Japanese Candlesticks, Harmonic Patterns (ABCD, M/W), Elliott Wave, Wyckoff, Gann Theory (Time/Square of 9/Angles), Ichimoku, RSI, Bollinger Bands, VWAP, Moving Averages (MA/EMA/SMA/WMA).
1. Long-Term Trend (Weekly/Monthly)
Elliott Wave:
US30 is in Wave 5 of a bull cycle (Wave 3 peak: 45,500, Wave 4 correction to 42,800).
Target: 46,200โ46,800 (1.618 extension of Wave 1).
Gann Price Forecasting:
Square of 9: โ44,935.4 โ 212.00 โ
Key resistance: 213ยฒ = 45,369, 214ยฒ = 45,796
Critical support: 211ยฒ = 44,521, 210ยฒ = 44,100
Break above 45,369 targets 46,000 (psychological level).
Ichimoku (Monthly):
Tenkan (9): 43,800 > Kijun (26): 43,200 โ Bullish crossover.
Price above thick Senkou Span (42,500โ43,000) โ structural bullishness.
Moving Averages:
Weekly EMA(100): 43,000 (major trend support).
Swing Outlook: Bullish. Wave 5 targets 46,200โ46,800.
2. Medium-Term Swing (4H/Daily)
Harmonic Patterns:
Bearish ABCD on Daily:
A: 45,200 โ B: 44,300 โ C: 44,900 โ D: 45,050โ45,150 (1.272 BC extension).
Bullish Crab (W Pattern) near 44,400 (0.886 XA retracement).
Wyckoff Phase:
Distribution above 44,900:
Upthrust rejection at 45,000 (16th Aug) on fading volume.
Weakness in rallies above 44,950.
Gann Theory:
Time Window: Aug 19โ22 (Square of 9 reversal cluster).
Gann Angle: 1x1 support at 44,800 (45ยฐ angle from Aug 14 low).
Price-Time Squaring: 44,935 aligns with Aug 16 โ consolidation expected.
Indicators:
RSI(14) + Bollinger Bands (Daily):
RSI: 65 (neutral-bullish, no divergence).
Price testing upper BB(20,2) at 45,050 โ band expansion signals volatility.
VWAP (Weekly): 44,600 (swing support).
Swing Trade Setup:
Short near 45,050โ45,150 โ Target 44,500. Stop-loss: 45,300.
Long near 44,400 โ Target 45,500. Stop-loss: 44,200.
3. Intraday Outlook (5Mโ4H)
Key Levels:
Resistance: 45,000 (psychological), 45,100 (Gann 1x1), 45,200 (ABCD target).
Support: 44,850 (VWAP), 44,750 (Ichimoku cloud), 44,600 (200-EMA).
Indicators:
Ichimoku (1H):
Tenkan: 44,920, Kijun: 44,860 โ Price above both (short-term bullish).
Cloud: Bullish (44,780โ44,840) โ intraday support zone.
RSI + Bollinger Bands (4H):
RSI(14): 61 (neutral).
Price near mid-BB(20,2) at 44,900 โ break below signals bearish momentum.
VWAP + MAs:
VWAP: 44,880 (intraday pivot).
EMA(20): 44,940 (resistance).
Candlestick Patterns:
4H Shooting Star at 45,000 โ Bearish reversal signal.
1H Bearish Harami below 44,950 โ Confirms selling pressure.
Gann Intraday Squaring:
Time Cycle: 14:00โ16:00 UTC+4 (NY open) for volatility surge.
Price Harmony: Close below 44,900 targets 44,800 โ 44,700.
Intraday Trade Plan:
Sell below 44,900 โ Target 44,800 (VWAP) โ 44,700 (Gann support).
Buy above 45,050 only if RSI <65 โ Target 45,150.
Stop-Loss: 40โ50 points.
Summary of Key Signals
Time Frame Bias Entry Target Stop-Loss
Intraday Bearish <44,900 44,880โ44,900 44,700โ44,800 45,000
Swing Bullish 44,400โ44,450 45,200โ45,500 44,200
Swing Bearish 45,050โ45,100 44,500โ44,600 45,300
Critical Events:
Gann Reversal Window: Aug 19โ22 (watch for Fed minutes/retail data).
Daily Close >45,200 invalidates bearish patterns and targets 45,796.
Risk Note: US30 is sensitive to Dow componentsโ earnings and USD moves. Use tight stops during NY session.
For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya dot Trade.(world wide web shunya dot trade)
I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work.
Regards,
Shunya.Trade
world wide web shunya dot trade
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
US30 - Potential Targets Dear Friends in Trading,
How I see it,
As long as price maintains above PIVOT-POC area, potential for
bullish continuation remains high.
Key resistance to breach @ 45140 for new ATH's
I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight
Thank you for taking the time study my analysis.
Backtesting Saturday :)oday Iโm doing backtesting, putting into practice some concepts that Iโve identified as having worked correctly. I like this format of recording because it gives me the opportunity to review concepts we sometimes overlook, and it also reminds us how well we can perform technical analysis.
Heist Alert: Dow 30 Bullish Surge Incoming โ Lock In Targets๐ฆนโโ๏ธ๐ โUS30 Gold Vault Heistโ โ Thiefโs Bullish Break-In Plan! ๐จ๐
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๐ Welcome to the Heist Floor, Global Market Bandits!
๐ฏ US30 is the next vault on the hitlist โ and weโre going in loud but calculated.
๐ฃ The Setup: Bullish Raid in Progress!
The Thief has eyes on Wall Street's armored vault โ US30 Index โ gearing up for a multi-layered bullish assault.
๐ผ Using limit orders like C4 on the door hinges, weโre stacking precise entries for maximum loot extraction. This isnโt gambling โ this is organized market crime.
๐ Entry Protocol โ Any Price Level Is Breachable
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No sniper candle required โ we work the shadows and stack with precision.
(Use the 15m-1H TF to tighten your strike zone.)
๐ Stop Loss โ The Getaway Hatch
๐ SL parked at 43300.0 โ if the mission fails, we vanish clean.
No chasing losses โ the next heist awaits.
๐ Take Profit โ The Loot Vault
๐ฏ Target: 45600
Thatโs the gold room, the top floor, the getaway car location.
Use trailing SLs to secure the bag mid-run if resistance agents start showing up.
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Global risk-on tone? โ
Dow futures resilience? โ
Thiefโs sentiment meter flashing GREEN? โ
Index rebalancing & sector flow favoring bulls? โ
We donโt just trade the chart. We rob the macro narrative.
๐ซ News Caution โ No Sudden Sirens
Avoid entering during red folder data drops or FOMC speeches.
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๐ Disclaimer: Educational analysis only. No financial advice. Manage your risk like a true thief โ never expose the whole bag.
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US30 Set To Grow! BUY!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on US30 and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 44925 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 45074
Safe Stop Loss - 44843
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
โโโโโโโโโโโ
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
DJ30/US30 LONG Reason for trade:
1. Expanding flat in play
2. Equal highs (LIQUIDITY)
3. Currently at the order block area (Ready)
Entry: 43647
Stop Loss: 43386
Take Profit: 45246
Strategy: Wait for a 30 minute engulfing candle closure.
Once in profit of 1:1 R, place the trade at BE
Blessings, in CHRIST.
08/15 Sell Trade Good explanation 1. Variation: Yellow
Let me explain this deeper. Variation is when there is a variety of candles in a trend that is losing momentum. In this case the bullish trend was losing strength.
But to be sure and avoid looking at a negative amount for a while just wait for the second step which is:
2. Wick rejecting the opposite site: Blue
Usually when you see a wick in the moment that that wick was being created it looked like a big candle going up. To avoid headaches is better to wait for the candle to close creating a wick that rejects the opposite side of the trend. Because if you look a big candle going up for example you get excited and jump at the buy just because of FOMO but imagine that you get in that trade and your big candle closes with a big wick ( bad news you played yourself). To avoid that, I was looking for sells so I needed a good wick saying that the bulls ( buyers) had no power left.
3. Volume: Red
The volume going down an it was still less than 10 am told me what I needed to do to enter confidently. I put the stop loss just where the big bearish opened to be sure.
So in simple words :
Look for variation telling you that the trend is coming to an end.
Look for a big wick rejecting the opposite side so you can enter more confidently.
Wait for good volume to go exactly where you needed to go to enter . In this trade I waited for the sellers to show some strength ( volume ) and bulls to show some weakness ( wicks , variation coming to an end)