0EF trade ideas
ELF - Bullish Cross of the 50 SMA / 100 SMAELF sells quality cosmetics for less than the better known brands. I've ask a few women about ELF brand and they seem to love this company. I'm just a guy, but when I hear this kind of enthusiasm for a company I never heard, I had to check it out.
The chart looks compelling and has given us a buy signal on Jan 7th. They beat estimates last quarter and I believe they are going to do that again on 2/5.
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the provision of inclusive, accessible, clean, vegan and cruelty free cosmetics and skin care products. The company focuses on the e-commerce, national retailers and international business channels. Its brands include elf, elf skin, WELL People and KEYS soulcare. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Oakland, CA.
This is not investment advice, I'm just a village idiot that likes to think out loud.
Beautiful Gainse.l.f. Beauty is showing strong bullish momentum, with a gap forming around the $109.00 level. A breakout above the $147.33 daily resistance would confirm continued strength, positioning the stock to target the $218.94 resistance level. This trade offers an excellent risk-to-reward ratio, with downside risk managed via a stop-loss at $107.14.
As a leader in affordable, high-quality beauty products, e.l.f. has positioned itself as a go-to brand for value-conscious consumers. The company’s focus on innovation, digital marketing, and expanding its product line has driven consistent growth and strong financial performance. With increasing consumer demand for accessible beauty solutions and its ability to capture market share, e.l.f. Beauty is well-poised for long-term upside.
This combination of technical momentum and robust market fundamentals supports a bullish push toward $218.94, making ELF a compelling opportunity for traders and investors alike.
NYSE:ELF
$ELF ON SALE!? Clearance Tags!?Weekly market analysis suggests a positive trend:
The current weekly price of $14 is below the average trading price, indicating a potential buying opportunity. Additionally, the 4-hour Stochastic Oscillator is showing an increase in bullish momentum. This could be a sign of a reversal in the market, making it a good time to consider a bullish outlook.
Would you agree with this assessment or do you have a different take on the market? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
$ELF ON SALE!? Clearance Tags!?Weekly market analysis suggests a positive trend:
The current weekly price of $14* is below the average trading price, indicating a potential buying opportunity. Additionally, the 4-hour Stochastic Oscillator is showing an increase in bullish momentum. This could be a sign of a reversal in the market, making it a good time to consider a bullish outlook.
Would you agree with this assessment or do you have a different take on the market? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
$ELF Trade Setup & Fundamentals: $150+ TargetsGreetings Everyone ,
I wanted to highlight NYSE:ELF , which has been on my radar for over three months.
Sector Insight:
The Consumer Discretionary sector, including e.l.f. Beauty, has shown unique market resilience. Despite sell-offs in leading stocks, the sector itself has held strong, even gaining ground. This suggests that while individual names saw profit-taking, capital may still be active within the sector. It raises the question: What are institutional investors targeting here? 🤔
e.l.f. Beauty ( NYSE:ELF ) Fundamentals:
Q2 Fiscal 2025 Performance: Net sales jumped 40% YoY to $301.1 million, driven by retail and e-commerce growth.
Market Share Growth: U.S. market share rose by 195 basis points, marking 23 consecutive quarters of sales growth and share gains.
Profitability: Gross margin hit 71%, reflecting cost efficiencies, currency benefits, and price adjustments abroad.
Outlook Raised: Full-year net sales growth is now expected to be 28-30%, with EPS projected at $3.47 to $3.53, signaling sustained confidence.
Levels & Technicals :
Correction Zone: Began at the $220 level.
Major Price Levels: Horizontal Rays at $114, $143, $153, $220.
Gaps: Present at $120 and $159 levels.
Volume: Breakout volume hit 9.45 million compared to a typical 2-3.5 million during range-bound moves.
Trade Idea : ♟️
Gap & Go Strategy: Look to fill gaps, then break higher.
Price Targets 🎯
$152
$170
Next Steps 💡
Check out Lululemon (Canadian-based) for similar strength in the same sector. Let’s collaborate on chart insights! 📈
DYOR! NFA!
$ELF - Update: Potential C&H base breakoutNYSE:ELF just completed a potential cup and handle base with a measured move of $163.
Let's hope it plays out. 🙏
It is safe to say that Muddy Waters' Carson Block's short did not work out. 🚀
As always, I share my opinions and trades. I'm not suggesting that anyone follow my trades. You do you.
IS ELF BEAUTY FINALLY BOTTOMING OUT?! LET'S SEE!NYSE:ELF is at a key S/R zone and has shown buyers will step in well before this thing try's to dip under $100! That's great news as that gives us a great risk/reward ratio area!
MACD, RSI, and the Stochastic are all starting to curl upward off the bottom, indicating the start of a bottoming reversal. My trade setup and execution details are below. Not Financial Advice.
Entry: $118 Break
PT1: $152
PT2: $175
Final PT: $220
S/L: Break below $100 at $97.72.
ELF stock HLStocks highlights: Elf Beauty (ELF)
Intrinsic value(DCF, operating CF) : 146USD
TA: Base formed and a strong up break post earnings and very strong growth stock with 40%+ revenue growth
rec to put max 10% into portfolio
AI Earnings report summary:
Based on the financial report, the key growth drivers for e.l.f. Beauty are:
1. Consistent category-leading growth: The company has delivered 40% net sales growth in Q2, fueled by 195 basis points of market share gains in the U.S. and 91% net sales growth internationally.
2. Strength in both retailer and e-commerce channels: The company has seen strength in both its retailer and e-commerce channels, driving growth in net sales.
3. International expansion: The company has seen significant growth in international markets, with 91% net sales growth in Q2.
The area of concern is:
1. Increased SG&A expenses: The company's SG&A expenses increased by $74.0 million to $186.1 million, or 62% of net sales, primarily due to an increase in marketing and digital spend, compensation, and other expenses. This increase may put pressure on the company's profitability.
$ELF - Waking up.NYSE:ELF is waking up. It is currently up against the channel's trendline resistance. A breakout from that channel could send the stock to the $150 area.
Between ELF and EL, which one would you bet on?
As always, I share my opinions and trades. I'm not suggesting that anyone follow my trades. You do you.
10/7/24 - $elf - Too cheap to ignore ~$102. Buy.10/7/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:ELF
Too cheap to ignore ~$102. Buy.
- low 20s PE for mid 20s growth
- AI will disrupt many categories, but makeup...?
- cash generative. low (2% FCF) yield not "great" but growth is hard to ignore. also the price focused niche is great for the current environment.
- solid brand
- need to evaluate leadership (anyone have a view?) I'll revert here.
- starting with a 1% position. think it could be a 2-3% position if/as we get into the 90s and even 80s (if/as)
- mind the gaps in the chart from the 2023 period (flagged in grey)
be safe out there.
V
ELF stock is a buy nowE.l.f. Beauty stock has dropped 21% this year and is down 48% from its record high of $218 in June. Despite this, Wall Street analysts remain optimistic about the company's growth.
TD Cowen analyst Oliver Chen lowered the price target from $235 to $150 but maintained a "Buy" rating. Chen attributes the stock's decline to lower-than-expected guidance for Q2 sales and EBITDA margin. E.l.f.’s affordable cosmetics, especially popular among younger consumers, benefit from a strong social media marketing strategy.
First-quarter revenue for fiscal 2025 reached $324.5 million.
Most analysts still rate the stock as a "Buy," including Canaccord Genuity’s Susan Anderson, who set a $250 price target. The company also approved a $500 million stock buyback program.
Long story short: the price entered the accumulation zone. Good buy for a mid-term /long-term.
e.l.f. Beauty (ELF): Oversold and Ready for a ReboundIt has been quite some time since we last took a look at e.l.f. Beauty, and our previous conclusion was that we could be seeing some more selling pressure. We were right about it; after a brief relief pump, the stock sold off by more than 45%.
In the end, our prediction about ELF being due for a sell-off was correct, and we are now back in the targeted area. Although we haven't touched the HVN POC yet, the situation looks both promising and concerning at the same time.
Additionally, the RSI is oversold for the first time since October 2023. Given the current market conditions and the prevailing uncertainty, we are not planning to go long on ELF at this time. However, it does appear ready to either fall a bit more or take off. We will continue to monitor it closely and have already set alerts. If we see an upward push, we might consider entering on a retest, but for now, we're staying on the sidelines.
We hope this update has been helpful to you 🔥
ELF - short by 40%✅e.l.f. Beauty #ELF Provides cosmetics and skincare products under the elf brand
📊 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
🔴High growth potential and excellent balance sheet.
🔴Earnings growth is projected at 34.65% per year.
🔴Earnings have grown by 22.2% over the past year
🔴Analysts agree that the stock price will grow by 58.3%
🟢Significant insider selling over the past 3 months
🛠 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
📈 SHORT
▪️ Price fell below 200 and 50 EMA on the daily TF
▪️ MACD is below its signal line and negative.
▪️ RSI - below 50, but not in the oversold zone.
▪️ RSI - bearish divergence
▪️ Breakout of the “M” pattern support
↗️ TRADE
🎯 Target price $92.10
📊 Potential for a 40% decline
💼 Portfolio #active_management
⚠️ The ideas published are not investment recommendations, this is only the personal opinion of the blog author.
$ELF Bouncing Past the 9 & 21 Day Moving AverageNYSE:ELF On average, technical analysts often observe that when a stock crosses above both the 9-day and 21-day moving averages, there is approximately a 60-70% chance that the upward trend will continue. Conversely, when a stock crosses below both averages, there is about a 60-70% chance that the downward trend will persist.
Here are some general figures:
Bullish Continuation: 65% probability that the stock will continue an upward trend after crossing above both the 9-day and 21-day moving averages.
Bearish Continuation: 65% probability that the stock will continue a downward trend after crossing below both the 9-day and 21-day moving averages.
These figures are generalized estimates based on typical market behavior and may vary depending on specific stock characteristics and broader market conditions. Always consider conducting specific #backtesting and analysis for the particular stock or market you're interested in for more accurate predictions.
$ELF A MARKET Leader with clear signs of breaking down. Bearish🚨#YUSUKE_ALERT🚨
NYSE:ELF Potential Short Setup! 💄 Stage 4 Downtrend Emerging
Technical Analysis
Breaking below 200-DSMA and 40-week MA
Relative Strength (RS) line breaking long-term 21-SMA
Entering Stage 4 downtrend
Current Price Action
Last traded price: $144.76 (as of 08/12/2024)
Daily range: $143.78 - $151.76
Significant bearish momentum observed
Option Flow
Notable put activity:
$140P 08/16/24: 164 contracts
$143P 08/16/24: 253 contracts
$147P 08/16/24: 257 contracts
Market Context
Leaders getting "shot down" one by one
Signs of market under distribution
Trading Implications
This setup suggests a potential short opportunity as ELF breaks key technical levels. The breakdown below major moving averages, coupled with weakening relative strength, indicates a possible trend reversal.
Risk Management
Consider waiting for a bounce to short
Key resistance levels: $152.5, $150, $147
Potential support: $139, $135
Action Plan
Monitor for continued weakness
Watch for failed rallies at previous support levels
Consider put options or short positions on strength
Set stop losses above recent swing highs
Traders should conduct thorough research and consider overall market conditions before entering any positions. This downtrend in a former leader could signal broader market weakness.
ELF Beauty (ELF): Ready for a Turn? Key Insights Inside!Following the last earnings call, ELF Beauty Inc. has caught the attention of many investors, with the stock surging 25% since then. However, we do not believe this signifies the emergence of a new super-bullish trend. Instead, we anticipate entering Wave B, which will likely lead to another significant pullback. In our view, the stock has completed Wave (5) of the first cycle and is now in the process of forming an overarching Wave 2. The exact duration and nature of this Wave 2 remain uncertain, as it depends on whether it will be a longer or shorter corrective wave.
In the coming days, we expect the stock to rise again, potentially reaching up to $207, which should be the maximum target. Just below this level is the high-volume node's point of control, which we expect to hold. It is possible that the stock could reach the high-volume node edge at $210, but it is unlikely to surpass this level. After this rise, we anticipate another sell-off down to Wave C, which we expect to fall within the range of $119 to $96. This expectation is based on the assumption that this is a zig-zag correction, where Wave C extends significantly below Wave A.
Before the recent rise, we observed a clear collection of liquidity a few days ago, leading to the breakout of the trendline. The RSI is not yet overbought, but it could become so in the coming days. If the RSI forms higher highs and the price breaks above the high-volume node edge at $221, it could indicate the potential for further upward movement. However, our current expectation is that the stock will hit resistance and then enter Wave C, leading to a deeper correction.