CFR-long term trend supportPullback towards long term support trendline, potential entry zone area for a bounce.
Market insights
Our opinion on the current state of RICHEMONT(CFR)Richemont (CFR) is the world's second-largest supplier of luxury goods, controlled by the Rupert family in Stellenbosch. Its sales are entirely overseas, making it an excellent rand-hedge. The company owns a prestigious portfolio of luxury brands, including Mont Blanc, Cartier, Lancel, Jaeger-LeCoultre, Van Cleef, and Piaget. Richemont has successfully expanded its online presence, with online sales now accounting for 21% of its turnover. This growth has been driven by the acquisition of Yoox-Net-A-Porter (YNAP) and Watchfinder, a UK-based online group, as well as a joint venture with Alibaba. Through this partnership, Richemont has developed apps to penetrate the Chinese market and offer its luxury goods via Alibaba's Tmall Luxury Pavilion.
Richemont is well-positioned to benefit from the global economic recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic. While the company experienced a decline in sales during the pandemic, its aggressive shift toward online sales positions it for continued growth. However, Richemont's performance is influenced by the Chinese economy's slowdown, developments in Central and Eastern Europe, and fluctuations in the rand's strength.
In its results for the six months to 30th September 2024, Richemont reported sales of just over 10 billion euros, down 1%, with headline earnings per share (HEPS) of 2.862 euros, compared to 3.577 euros in the prior period. The company noted, "Solid growth in sales across all regions, except for Asia Pacific; double-digit growth in the Americas, reinforcing the US' position as the largest individual market for the Group. Continued growth in direct-to-client sales, now accounting for 76% of Group sales."
In an update for the third quarter ended 31st December 2024, Richemont reported a 10% increase in sales, achieving its highest-ever quarterly sales of 6.2 billion euros. This strong performance caused the share price to rise sharply.
Although the share trades at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 17.8, which is relatively high, Richemont remains a compelling investment for its strong rand-hedge characteristics and its exposure to the global luxury market. However, investors should consider its dependence on the Chinese consumer and its sensitivity to global economic conditions when evaluating this stock.
CFR - Compagnie Financière Richemont SAAs the brand includes many watch brands, I think the index it has affects the prices of the watch market in general.
In my opinion, the love of watches has turned into populism, and market prices are a bit inflated.
It is possible to see a decrease in prices (in the market prices of watches) in the future.
Long-term bottom in place; BUCKLE UP! WE ARE GOING TO THE MOONIn my wave count, we are in the midst of an impulsive move upwards.
We should see the end of this impulsive move at around $300.
To enter, I would wait for the (b) to occur. The target zone for the end of (b) is $118 to $120.
There will be many possibilities to enter after this, though.
Richemont just broke out of the Falling Wedge target R327Falling Wedge (Flag pole) has formed over the last few months.
We then had a breakout above the Wedge alone with a breakout above the downtrend (Action line)
We believe the nature of the analysis is High probability where the price is above 20 and 200MA.
The target is at R327.51
Our opinion on the current state of RICHEMONT(CFR)Richemont (CFR) is the world's second-largest supplier of luxury goods, controlled by the Rupert family in Stellenbosch. Its sales are entirely located overseas, making it an excellent rand-hedge. The company’s luxury brands include Mont Blanc, Cartier, Lancel, Jaeger-LeCoultre, Van Cleef, and Piaget. Richemont has boosted online sales to 21% of turnover by acquiring Yoox-Net-A-Porter (YNAP), Watchfinder, a UK online group, and entering into a joint venture with the online giant Alibaba. This joint venture aims to develop apps to penetrate the Chinese market and offer its line of luxury goods through Alibaba's Tmall Luxury Pavilion.
Richemont is directly linked to the recovery of the world economy following the pandemic. While the company's sales clearly took a hit from COVID-19, they are expected to continue rising, especially now that it is aggressively offering its products online. This share is also impacted by the slowdown in the Chinese economy and the developments in Central and Eastern Europe. It will benefit from the recovery in the world economy but will be impacted by changes in the strength of the rand.
In its results for the year to 31st March 2024, the company reported sales up 3% and 8% in constant currencies. Headline earnings per "A" share fell by 4%. The company said, "Jewellery Maisons delivering a 33.1% operating margin, with sales up 6% at actual exchange rates (+12% at constant exchange rates). Strong net cash position of EUR 7.4 billion, with a solid increase in cash flow generated from operating activities to EUR 4.7 billion."
In an update on the first quarter to 30th June 2024, the company reported sales up 1% in constant currencies and, "Mid-single digit growth at the Jewellery Maisons and the Group's 'Other' business area (which includes the Group's Fashion & Accessories Maisons) offsetting lower sales at the Specialist Watchmakers impacted by strong exposure to Asia Pacific."
This share made an "island" formation in October and November of 2023 before beginning a new upward trend. It is clearly a rand hedge, but it is dependent on the Chinese consumer. We expect it to perform well, but on a P/E of 21,57 it is not cheap.
$JSECFR - Richemont: New All-Time High In SiteSee link below for previous analysis.
The key invalidation level at 215732 cps held and the stock resumed its uptrend for wave 5 of (3).
Wave 5 appears to be unfolding as a large ending diagonal and the minimum expectation is for price to make a new all-time high.
This may not happen in a straight line so any pullback will present a buying opportunity.
Buy the dips.
Our opinion on the current state of RICHEMONT(CFR)Richemont (CFR), controlled by the Rupert family in Stellenbosch, is the world's second-largest supplier of luxury goods. The company's sales are entirely located overseas, making it an excellent rand-hedge. Its prestigious luxury brands include Mont Blanc, Cartier, Lancel, Jaeger-LeCoultre, Van Cleef, and Piaget. Richemont has significantly enhanced its online sales, which now constitute 21% of its turnover. This increase was facilitated by the acquisition of Yoox-Net-A-Porter (YNAP) and Watchfinder, a UK online group, as well as by entering into a joint venture with Alibaba to develop apps to penetrate the Chinese market and offer its line of luxury goods. Additionally, its products are available through Alibaba's Tmall Luxury Pavilion.
Richemont's business is closely tied to the global economic recovery post-pandemic. Although the company's sales were negatively impacted by COVID-19, they are expected to continue rising, particularly due to its aggressive online sales strategies. However, the share is influenced by the economic slowdown in China and developments in Central and Eastern Europe. It stands to benefit from the global economic recovery but remains susceptible to fluctuations in the strength of the rand.
In its financial results for the year ending 31st March 2024, Richemont reported a sales increase of 3%, and 8% in constant currencies. However, headline earnings per "A" share decreased by 4%. The company highlighted that its "Jewellery Maisons are delivering a 33.1% operating margin, with sales up 6% at actual exchange rates (+12% at constant exchange rates).” Richemont also reported a strong net cash position of EUR 7.4 billion, with a significant increase in cash flow generated from operating activities, which rose to EUR 4.7 billion.
The share experienced an "island" formation in October and November of 2023 before it began a new upward trend. While Richemont is clearly an effective rand hedge, its performance is highly dependent on the Chinese consumer market. Despite this, the company is expected to perform well, although it is important to note that with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio above 22, its shares are not cheap.
CFR vs Top 40CFR Richemont | Medium Term = High bullish momentum/approaching overbought + approaching unfilled gap. Also note, relative to the Top 40 Index, the share is trading 19% above it’s 200-day SMA. There is however a negative divergence as the previous relative high saw the share trading 32% above it’s 200-day SMA.
$JSECFR Reaching Interesting LevelsCFR is climbing into a cycle high, we can expect that to come at R3,080.00 (1.618 fib level), if it runs further there is R3,190 which is the median line of the Pitchfork (not shown to declutter). The daily chart is building some negative diversion while the weekly is becoming overbought.
Richemont - Area of InterestThe stock has rallied well in January and is now entering the next area of interest R2980-R2820
It will be key to see how price action develops which will give clues to whether we break up further or have a pull back towards the up trending 20/50 ema's to recharge.
Note we still have a cup in handle pattern in play with a measured move that targets the R3150 zone (gap fill).
Our opinion on the current state of CFRRichemont (CFR) is the world's second-largest supplier of luxury goods controlled by the Rupert family in Stellenbosch. Its sales are entirely located overseas so it is an excellent rand-hedge. Its luxury brands include Mont Blanc, Cartier, Lancel, Jaeger-LeCoultre, Van Cleef and Piaget. It has boosted online sales to 21% of turnover by acquiring Yoox-Net-A-Porter (YNAP), Watchfinder, a UK online group and entering into a joint venture with the online giant Alibaba, to develop apps to penetrate the Chinese market and offer its line of luxury goods. At the same time, its luxury goods are offered through Alibaba's Tmall Luxury Pavilion. Richemont is a company which is directly linked to the recovery of the world economy following the pandemic. While the company sales clearly took a hit from COVID-19, we expect them to continue rising, especially now that it is aggressively offering its products online. This share is also impacted by the slowdown in the Chinese economy and the developments in Central and Eastern Europe. It will benefit from the recovery in the world economy but will be impacted by changes in the strength of the rand. In its results for the six months to 30th September 2023 the company reported sales up 6% and operating profits from continuing operations down 2% in actual exchange rates. The company said, "Jewellery Maisons achieving 10% sales growth at actual exchange rates (+16% at constant exchange rates) and delivering a 35.5% operating margin * Specialist Watchmakers contracting sales by 3% at actual exchange rates (+3% at constant exchange rates) and achieving a 19.7% operating margin." In a sales update on the third quarter ending on 31st December 2023 the company reported sales up 8% with growth across most regions, especially in Japan. This share has been falling since its peak in May 2023, but now appears to have found some support at around R2163 per share. It is clearly a rand hedge, but it is dependent on the Chinese consumer.
$JSECFR - Richemont: Pullback Or Downside Continuation?See link below for previous analysis.
Richemont had a small rally since the previous analysis.
I have been looking for a five wave rally though from the 215732 cps low and the rally to 265732 cps looks to be three waves.
This is where is gets complex as there are two ways to interpret this:
1) the three wave are a full zig zag correction and price is continuing lower.
2) price is in the early stages of a leading diagonal and will head higher.
Either way, 215732 is the key level to watch and while the current sell-off looks strong, I will remain neutral.
Richemont's Market Outlook: Interpreting Bearish Signals in TradRichemont
Richemont's Market Outlook: Interpreting Bearish Signals in Trading Analysis
1.Price Formation: The price has broken out from a RISING FLAG price formation on a daily chart.
2.Moving Averages: The 7-day moving average (MA) is below the 21-day MA, which is a sign indicating bearish momentum.
3.200-day Moving Average is above the Price.
4.Thus, Mas 7>21>200
5.Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is < than 50, indicating bullish momentum and potential further upward movement.
6.Price Target: R1800
Richemont – the company
Richemont is a multinational luxury goods holding company based in Switzerland. It is one of the world's leading luxury goods companies, specializing in high-end jewellery, watches, fashion, and accessories.
The company was founded in 1988 by South African businessman Johann Rupert and is listed on the Swiss Stock Exchange.
Richemont owns a portfolio of renowned luxury brands, including Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels, Montblanc, IWC Schaffhausen, Piaget, Jaeger-LeCoultre, Vacheron Constantin, Panerai, and Chloe, among others. These brands are known for their craftsmanship, design excellence, and heritage.
The company operates through several divisions, including Jewellery Maisons, Specialist Watchmakers, and Other Businesses.
The Jewellery Maisons division encompasses brands specializing in fine jewellery and luxury accessories, while the Specialist Watchmakers division focuses on high-end watch brands.
The Other Businesses division includes various luxury fashion, accessories, and online retail businesses.
Richemont has a global presence with operations in Europe, Asia Pacific, the Americas, and the Middle East.
The company's products are sold through a combination of directly operated boutiques, authorized retailers, and e-commerce channels.
As a leading luxury goods company, Richemont places great emphasis on quality, craftsmanship, and design innovation.
Its brands cater to discerning consumers who value exclusivity and exceptional quality. Richemont's commitment to sustainability is also evident through its initiatives to promote responsible sourcing of materials and ethical practices within the luxury industry.
The company's financial performance is closely watched by investors, as it serves as an indicator of the overall health of the luxury goods market.
Richemont's success is often tied to global economic conditions, consumer confidence, and luxury spending trends.
Richemont long ideaJSE:CFR closed above a key MA today, the stock is also above a potential resistance level. The MA is still facing downwards, however, without the indicator, the price action is compelling to initiate a long position.
Potential target and stop levels on the chart.
UPDATE -Richemont: A Head & Shoulder Price Pattern AnalysisRichemont
Bearish Bias in Richemont: A Head & Shoulder Price Pattern Analysis”
A bearish bias is indicated by the breakout of the price from a Head & Shoulder price pattern.
(MAs 7<21<200 confirms the bearish sentiment.
Additionally, RSI below 50 further supports the bearish bias.
Target is set at R1800.
Richemont – the company
Richemont is a multinational luxury goods holding company based in Switzerland. It is one of the world's leading luxury goods companies, specializing in high-end jewellery, watches, fashion, and accessories.
The company was founded in 1988 by South African businessman Johann Rupert and is listed on the Swiss Stock Exchange.
Richemont owns a portfolio of renowned luxury brands, including Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels, Montblanc, IWC Schaffhausen, Piaget, Jaeger-LeCoultre, Vacheron Constantin, Panerai, and Chloe, among others. These brands are known for their craftsmanship, design excellence, and heritage.
The company operates through several divisions, including Jewellery Maisons, Specialist Watchmakers, and Other Businesses.
The Jewellery Maisons division encompasses brands specializing in fine jewellery and luxury accessories, while the Specialist Watchmakers division focuses on high-end watch brands.
The Other Businesses division includes various luxury fashion, accessories, and online retail businesses.
Richemont has a global presence with operations in Europe, Asia Pacific, the Americas, and the Middle East.
The company's products are sold through a combination of directly operated boutiques, authorized retailers, and e-commerce channels.
As a leading luxury goods company, Richemont places great emphasis on quality, craftsmanship, and design innovation.
Its brands cater to discerning consumers who value exclusivity and exceptional quality. Richemont's commitment to sustainability is also evident through its initiatives to promote responsible sourcing of materials and ethical practices within the luxury industry.
The company's financial performance is closely watched by investors, as it serves as an indicator of the overall health of the luxury goods market.
Richemont's success is often tied to global economic conditions, consumer confidence, and luxury spending trends.
$JSECFR - Richemont: Wave 4 Correction Looks CompleteSee link below for previous analysis.
The wave 4 forecasted in the previous analysis turned out to be much deeper but looks to have bottomed at 215732 cps.
The overall structure from 147340 is still an impulse so wave 5 could be in its early stages now.
What is key is that 215732 holds and this level should be used as a stop-loss.
What is further encouraging is that the MACD started turning up before price and has recently broken above the zero-line after many months trading below it. This is bullish from a momentum perspective.
CFR.JSE Richemont Trend Cloud Study.RICHEMONT is showing a healthy Bounce Back after the recent Earnings report.
The Trend Cloud shows areas of possible Support and Resistance.
Also noted is that if one held during the recent Drop, that you would still be in the Green.
Patience maybe?
Get an Expert's Advice before making any Trade or Investment Decisions.
Smash that Rocket Boost Button to show your Appreciation for my Chart Studies.
Regards Graham.
CFR.JSE Richemont Trend Cloud Study.RICHEMONT is showing a healthy Bounce Back after the Earnings report.
The Trend Cloud shows areas of Support and Resistance.
Also noted is that if one held during the recent Drop, that you would still be in the Green.
Patience maybe?
Get an Expert's Advice before making any Trade or Investment Decisions.
Smash that Rocket Boost Button to show your Appreciation for my Chart Studies.
Regards Graham.
#CFR Richemont Roars Back: Ready to 'Rumble' Up the Charts!Richemont (JSE:CFR) Breaking the significant down trending channel which has held price lower since July in a very controlled 'Fashion' (excuse the pun). The level we bounced from is the 50% fib retracement from the May 22 lows and May 23 highs. RSI and MACD has been building divergence for weeks where the indicators made higher lows which was not confirmed by price..
Putting this all together, I think we have a good trading opportunity to get long CFR here with a stop loss below recent lows at R2158, with targets at approx. R2500 R2600 and R2700 (200day ma).
Our opinion on the current state of CFRRichemont (CFR) is the world's second-largest supplier of luxury goods controlled by the Rupert family in Stellenbosch. Its sales are entirely located overseas so it is an excellent rand-hedge. Its luxury brands include Mont Blanc, Cartier, Lancel, Jaeger-LeCoultre, Van Cleef and Piaget. It has boosted online sales to 21% of turnover by acquiring Yoox-Net-A-Porter (YNAP), Watchfinder, a UK online group and entering into a joint venture with the online giant Alibaba, to develop apps to penetrate the Chinese market and offer its line of luxury goods. At the same time, its luxury goods are offered through Alibaba's Tmall Luxury Pavilion. Richemont is a company which is directly linked to the recovery of the world economy following the pandemic. While the company sales clearly took a hit from COVID-19, we expect them to continue rising, especially now that it is aggressively offering its products online. This share is also impacted by the slowdown in the Chinese economy and the developments in Central and Eastern Europe. It will benefit from the recovery in the world economy but will be impacted by changes in the strength of the rand. In its results for the six months to 30th September 2023 the company reported sales up 6% and operating profits from continuing operations down 2% in actual exchange rates. The company said, "Jewellery Maisons achieving 10% sales growth at actual exchange rates (+16% at constant exchange rates) and delivering a 35.5% operating margin * Specialist Watchmakers contracting sales by 3% at actual exchange rates (+3% at constant exchange rates) and achieving a 19.7% operating margin". This share has been falling since its peak in May 2023, but now appears to have found some support at around R2168 per share. It is clearly a rand hedge, but it is dependent on the Chinese consumer.
CFR ObservationTrading at a key level + Early Signs Of Stabilization And Potential Recovery? My view is that diagonal trend lines are LESS reliable that horizontal trend lines, however, here is a view to consider. The share is trading at the lower boundary of a multi-year channel which extends back to the lows of March 2020.
JSEcfr Richemont Short until gap fillCfr has been under pressure along with the luxury segment and could reverse after filling the gap by dipping below 2000, which could act as a springboard for a recovery.
