Gold to top in $3600-$4000 area? I believe gold is about to blow-off into the $3600-$4000 area to sit in its mid-cycle top in its 8 year cycle and head for $3000 in 2026.
GOLD.F trade ideas
August 28th Latest Gold Trend Analysis Strategy:
📊 1. Key Data and Event Impact
Revised US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly rate (expected 3.1%, previous value 3.0%), weekly initial jobless claims.
If the data is revised downward, it could weaken the US dollar and boost gold.
If the data is revised upward, it could reinforce the Federal Reserve's cautious stance, suppressing gold prices in the short term.
📉 2. Key Technical Levels
Support Levels:
Primary Support: 3380-3385 (5-day moving average, intraday bull-bear divide).
Strong support: 3373-3375 (recent low point, key support at the 4-hour level).
Deeper Support: 3360-3362 (10/20-day moving average convergence area), 3350 (21-day moving average).
Resistance Levels:
Near-term resistance: 3400 (psychological barrier, a breakout could see upward movement to 3409-3410).
Core resistance: 3414-3425 (daily level descending trend line pressure & Bollinger band upper track, a breakthrough will open a new round of upward space).
Technical Indicators:
Daily moving averages are bullish, but significant pressure exists in the 3410-3425 area.
The 14-day RSI is around 57, which is in the bullish range, but the momentum has slowed down slightly.
The MACD on the 4-hour chart is flat, so we need to be wary of short-term pullback risks.
The following are the key bull-bear points:
Support: 3380-3385, near the 5-day moving average, initial support; a break below indicates short-term weakness.
3373-3375, recent lows, important support, and a 4-hour moving average watershed.
3360-3362, 10-day/20-day moving average convergence zone, strong support.
Resistance: 3400, a psychological round number.
3409-3410, recent highs and trendline resistance.
3414-3425, key resistance at the daily descending trendline; a break above suggests a move to 3450.
🛠️ III. Trading Strategy Recommendations
1. Trend Follower
Buy Strategy:
If gold prices fall back to the 3380-3385 area and stabilize, consider a light long position with a stop-loss below 3370, targeting 3400-3405. If gold prices break through 3414 and stabilize, consider going long with the trend, targeting 3425 or even 3440.
Short Strategy:
If gold prices fail to break through 3400 and show signs of a pullback, consider a small-scale short position with a stop-loss above 3405, targeting 3385-3390.
2. Range Trader (Buy Low and Sell High)
Trade within the 3373-3409 range.
Consider going long near the lower edge of the range (e.g., 3380-3385) and a stabilization signal (e.g., a doji or bullish engulfing candlestick pattern) appears.
Consider shorting when it approaches the upper edge of the range (such as 3400-3405) and encounters resistance.
Be sure to set a stop loss (for example, stop loss below 3370 for long orders and above 3415 for short orders). If the range is broken, stop loss and consider following the trend.
3. Cautious Investors
We recommend a wait-and-see approach, waiting for gold prices to effectively break through key resistance (3414-3425) or support (3360-3362), and then choosing an opportunity to enter the market once the direction is clear.
Pay close attention to the market reaction after the release of US economic data before making any decisions.
⚠️ IV. Risk Warning
Data Risk: If US GDP and initial jobless claims data significantly exceed expectations, this could weaken expectations of a rate cut and put pressure on gold prices.
Speech Risk: If Fed Governor Waller makes hawkish remarks (such as emphasizing data-driven reliance and a reluctance to cut rates), this could weigh on gold prices.
Technical Risk: If gold prices fall below the key support level of $3373, a further pullback to the 3360-3362 or even 3350 range is possible in the short term.
Political Risk: The controversy surrounding Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook continues. If the legal dispute escalates, it could exacerbate market concerns about the Fed's independence and increase gold's safe-haven appeal.
💎 5. Conclusion
Overall, gold remains in a short-term, volatile, and relatively strong pattern. Key support lies in the $3373-3385 area. The primary upside target is to overcome the $3409-3410 resistance level, and then challenge the key resistance zone of $3414-3425.
Operationally, the key lies in identifying price reactions at key support and resistance levels. Following the trend and strictly controlling risk are the primary strategies at this time.
Gold eyeing higher liquidity targetsPrice tapped into the Fair Value Gap (FVG) and rejected strongly from the descending channel support.
A bullish breakout above the trendline confirms momentum shift.
Targeting liquidity towards the previous swing high around 3409.
Gold Rising wedge matured gold rising wedge getting matured on h1 time frame and indicating to drop from here.
Gold inside wedgewith Gold inside this wedge, where do we go from here, this is a pattern that can break either way, what will fuel this break or boost
lets see, i hope it is not going to be a war drive, but rather from a DXY perspective
a softening US$, to get those inflation number stabilize, which wil drive Gold and BTC, so good runs, for the pull back in Q4, when the big pockets go and rest
XAUUSD📈 XAUUSD – 1H Timeframe
🟢 Long Call/ Bullish Candle
🔹 Gold is forming HH & HL (Higher Highs & Higher Lows) on the 1H chart → Uptrend structure intact.
🔹 Fib Retracement Setup → Perfect dip-buy opportunity from CMP (Current Market Price).
💡 Plan:
👉 Buy from CMP 🎯
👉 Book partial profits on resistance levels 🪙
👉 SL below Fib retracement 🔒
🌍 Weekly Fundamental Drivers:
1️⃣ Fed remains cautious on rate cuts, supporting safe-haven demand 🏦
2️⃣ Geopolitical uncertainty & central bank gold buying continue to give long-term bullish momentum 🌐
⚠️ Risk Management: Stay disciplined — let structure + fundamentals guide your trade.
GOLDPrice has being moving in a channel but we are going to favor the downside more tan the upside looking at the weekly candle formation and overall pattern.
August 27, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential Opportunity📌 Summary:
Bullish strength remains intact. The intraday plan is to buy dips into support. However, if price breaks below 3380, the strategy shifts to selling rallies into resistance.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
• 3420 – Resistance
• 3415 – Resistance
• 3410 – Resistance / Bullish target
• 3404 – Resistance
• 3400 – Psychological level
• 3380 – Key support
• 3370 – Support
• 3367 – Key intraday support
• 3359 – Support
• 3350 – Psychological level
• 3345 – Support
📈 Intraday Strategy:
SELL: If price breaks below 3380 → target 3375, with further downside toward 3370, 3367, 3363
BUY: If price holds above 3392 → target 3395, with further upside toward 3400, 3404, 3410
👉 If you find this helpful or traded using this plan, a like 👍 would mean a lot and keep me motivated. Thanks for the support!
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is my personal view, not financial advice. Always use proper risk control.
26 AugGold is still running the pattern, waiting for something to trigger it. Possible breakout coming
XAUUSD possibly setting for another buy!Finally XAUUSD just had a breakout and price finally reached daily high. I am looking at 15min price action which is now on pullback. Potentially price to come back to 1h support consist of 1h fast ema ( 10ema) along with also align with 50% to 61.8% Fib level is an area of possible buy for this move to the upside.
However price needs to show a high level of rejection from that level for an entry to increase the probability of upside push.
XAU/USD 26 August 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
You will note that price has targeted weak internal high on three separate occasions which has now formed a triple top, this is a bearish reversal pattern and proving this zone is a strong supply level. This is in-line with HTF bearish pullback phase.
Remainder of analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025.
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
H4 Timeframe - Price has failed to target weak internal high, therefore, it would not be unrealistic if price printed a bearish iBOS.
The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price.
As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
GOLD CONTINUES ITS BULLISH MOVEMy analysis shows that GOLD will continue it's bullish move, as we can see our Downtrend channel was invalidated, buyers gained strength and CHoC occurred this shows us strong bullish momentum. Price broke above Resistance and now is retesting it before it continues to head up high
Gold price analysis on August 26The uptrend is still maintained today. The focus is on observing the support zones to find BUY points.
3370 → important support zone (50% of H4 candle strong buying force from Asian session).
3358 → candle wick zone, playing the role of bullish wave structure.
If the price holds above these zones, the expansion target can be towards 3428 today and the following sessions.
📈 Trading strategy
BUY at 3370 (price rejection, 50% of H4 candle).
BUY at 3358 (liquidity candle wick zone).
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD 26/08/2025
1. Momentum
• D1 timeframe: Price is currently in the overbought zone. The ongoing bullish cycle has already produced 5 daily candles. Combined with the overbought condition, this suggests that upside momentum is weakening. If no strong breakout occurs within the next 1–2 days, it is likely that the market is still in a larger corrective phase on the daily chart.
• H4 timeframe: Momentum has turned bearish, with strong selling pressure emerging right after wave 2 was considered complete. This is an unusual sign and raises caution for the bullish scenario.
• H1 timeframe: Momentum is also about to turn bearish, which implies an incoming corrective pullback. This is not an encouraging signal at a stage where wave 3 is expected to develop.
2. Wave Structure
• D1: The main scenario still follows the larger corrective triangle. Price is unfolding waves 1–2 (green), and the current bullish leg is expected to be wave 3 (green). However, the strength so far has not been convincing. Having already completed 5 D1 candles without a decisive breakout suggests weakness in the rally.
• H4: The Asian session opened with a strong rally, but this momentum quickly faded and was followed by aggressive selling. Momentum reversed sharply, highlighting abnormal behavior for the expected uptrend.
• H1: At the 3387 level, strong selling pressure appeared, whereas this should have been the breakout zone for wave 3 (black) after surpassing wave 1 (black). Ideally, price should have pushed straight toward 3403 to confirm the impulsive strength of wave 3. This unusual behavior suggests that wave 1 (black) actually completed at 3387, and the market is now in wave 2 (black).
On the lower timeframe (M15), the current decline is forming an ABC structure, with the measured target for wave C at 3364 – a potential buy zone.
If price falls back to 3350 and breaks below, the 1–2–3–4–5 (yellow) count will be invalidated. In that case, the market may be unfolding a larger corrective structure, and the wave count plan will need to be updated.
3. Trading Plan
• Buy Zone: 3365 – 3363
• Stop Loss: 3349
• Take Profit 1: 3387
• Take Profit 2: 3403
⚠️ Note: The stop-loss range is relatively wide, and momentum does not fully support the bullish wave scenario yet. Traders should consider carefully before entering directly.
SMART MONEY CONCEPT 📊 XAU/USD – Bullish Breakout Explained
Gold gave us a clear bullish signal today:
1️⃣ Fake out (liquidity sweep): Price first dropped below support to grab liquidity from weak buyers before reversing.
2️⃣ Change of Character (ChoCh): After the fake out, price shifted structure to bullish, showing buyers stepping in.
3️⃣ Resistance Break: The market broke out of the range and cleared the resistance zone, confirming bullish strength.
4️⃣ Next Steps: Price may return to mitigate the 15M Order Block / demand zone before continuing higher.
🎯 Target: 3,390 is the next key level. As long as the market respects the support zone, the bullish bias remains strong.
💡 Tip for beginners: Always wait for confirmation (fake outs, ChoCh, resistance break) before entering a trade. This reduces false signals and helps you trade with institutional flow.
GOOD LUCK TRADERS ;)
Gold Faces Short-Term Cooling: Watch the Gap at 3,355–3,345Hello everyone, looking at this H2 chart, what do you see in XAU/USD?
Technically, gold has just spiked sharply and is now trading narrowly just below 3,372–3,375 USD. The spike left a very clear bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) at 3,355–3,345 USD. On the Ichimoku cloud, the price has just slightly exceeded the cloud’s edge, but the forward kumo is fairly flat – a setup that often “pulls” price back to test the gap before any further breakout.
Above, the old supply FVG around 3,372–3,375 USD still shows where price was restrained, with a series of short-bodied candles and long upper wicks. Below, the green FVG at 3,355–3,345 lies near the cloud’s edge – a new equilibrium formed after the spike.
What stands out is how price is “holding its breath” just below 3,372 while the flat kumo stretches ahead and the FVG sits right beneath: this trio often signals a technical retracement to fill the gap at 3,355–3,345 before the market decides the next move.
Watch price action around 3,372 closely: if rejected at the old supply FVG, the likelihood of a pullback to 3,355 → 3,345 is high. Only a firm H2 close above 3,372 would brighten the chance of continuing to 3,380.
What do you think about this gap-fill scenario? Leave your thoughts in the comments below!
Gold prices are finally taking off, targeting $3,500+.Gold prices are finally taking off, targeting $3,500+.
1: Market expectations for a September Fed rate cut have risen to 87%-90%.
Positive
2: Concerns about the Fed's independence. Trump attempted to fire Fed Governor Tim Cook, but the hearing was unsuccessful (results expected on Tuesday, September 2).
Positive
3: Uncertainty about tariff policy. A federal appeals court ruled that the global tariffs imposed by Trump under the Emergency Act were illegal, but allowed them to continue while the case is under review.
Positive
4: US August non-farm payroll data is forthcoming (expected to show an increase of 75,000 and a rise in the unemployment rate).
To be determined - Friday, September 5.
5: Gold ETF holdings increased by 1% (28.5 tons) last week, the largest increase since mid-June.
Positive
In-depth Technical Analysis
Trend and Channel: Gold prices rose rapidly from a low of $3,436.94/oz during Asian trading hours, reaching a high of $3,485/oz. Gold prices are currently trading within a short-term upward trending channel.
Key Price Levels:
Resistance: 3500-3550+
Support: 3475-3455-3435
Technical Indicators: Bullish momentum remains strong.
Targets and Support Levels:
Upside Target: After a clear breakout above $3450, theoretical upside targets could reach $3518 or even $3587.
Even if negative news emerges this Friday, gold prices could retreat to around $3430 or $3400.
Trading Recommendations:
For bulls, the short-term target is $3,480-3,500.
Go long on dips.
The 3450-3475 range is bullish support.
As long as gold prices remain above $3450, the trading strategy is to buy low.
Wait for reasonable prices whenever possible.
Stop Loss: 3450
For short sellers: Shorting against the current strong uptrend is risky.
Any bearish trade should be viewed as short-term technical profit-taking rather than trend-based selling.
Gold hits 3500 again!
Market Review：
Gold hit a new recent high on Friday, reaching around 3454, and the high is gradually moving upward. This week, all of our bullish predictions for gold have been fulfilled, with gold reaching our upper resistance level. The daily chart ended with consecutive positive days, and the weekly chart is also in a nearly bare middle-yin candlestick pattern, completely above the short-term moving average, forming a strong bullish formation.
Next week's trend is even more crucial. Regarding the range, if it continues to break upward next week, the subsequent bullish momentum is self-evident, and a new all-time high is very likely to be reached. The 3480 level above will also serve as a watershed between bulls and bears in the future. If it holds above this level, it is likely to continue to attack the 3500 round number. Otherwise, it is likely to indicate that the current upward trend has come to an end.
If your current trading is not satisfactory, please feel free to contact us!
Market Forecast：
From a daily chart analysis, short-term support is expected around 3420. On pullbacks, continue to favor a bullish trend. If the daily chart stabilizes, maintain a buying strategy on dips and avoid counter-trend short positions.
Go long on gold when it retraces to 3420, and add to your long position when it retraces to 3410. Set a stop loss at 3380 and a target at 3480.
Please stay tuned for specific trading strategies.
xauusd📊 XAU/USD – Wave Analysis
1. “Gold shows bullish signals with Ichimoku and Elliott Wave patterns. Positive market sentiment may push price higher.”
Gold Price Analysis September 1✨ Gold Analysis Today
After a strong breakout at the end of Friday's session, gold is getting closer to historical milestones. However, the continuous increase also opens up the possibility of short-term corrections in today's session.
The difficulty is that most of the important resistance zones have been penetrated, showing that buying power is dominant. Therefore, instead of looking for big SELL opportunities, traders should focus on observing the Break Out zones that have been formed to monitor the new momentum of the market, with a further target towards the 3493 mark.
🔑 Reference scenario:
BUY when the price reacts positively at the support zones of 3433 - 3421.
BUY DCA if the price breaks out and closes the candle firmly above 3452.
SELL scalp should only be considered on a small timeframe, prioritize quick surfing, and need to closely monitor fluctuations.
The major trend is still in favor of the bulls, the safest strategy is to follow the mainstream money flow instead of taking risks against the wave.
Gold Strategy Analysis: Price Breakout UnstoppableGold prices have been clearly bullish recently. Since Powell's speech sparked expectations of a rate cut, gold prices have found an opportunity to break out, triggering a powerful daily rebound with consecutive gains. The continued upward trend has been remarkably consistent, demonstrating unstoppable momentum.
Currently, three key factors—expectations of rate cuts, tariff disruptions, and the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine—have been supporting gold prices. Whenever gold prices fall into consolidation, news always emerges to pull them out of trouble.
Summary: Currently, bulls are still in the driving force. If gold prices fall back, it's still advisable to open long positions.
Gold Strategy
Gold's 1-hour moving average continues to form a golden cross and diverge in a bullish pattern. The 1-hour moving average remains in a standard bullish trend. Continue to open long positions in the event of a decline. Opening points: 3437/3423.
