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GOLD trade ideas

Gold hits record highs ahead of FOMC! Tech SetupGold reached fresh all-time highs near $3690 ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting. Its rally reflects a perfect storm of Fed dovishness and geopolitical tensions, but technical divergences suggest positioning carefully ahead of Powell's decision. The 100% Fib extension and double divergence setup makes any hawkish surprise particularly dangerous for leveraged longs. CATALYSTS DRIVING THE RALLY: Fed rate cut fully priced in (25bps expected, some 50bps speculation) US-China tensions escalate (Nvidia antitrust accusations) Stephen Miron confirmed to Fed Board of Governors (dovish member) Dollar weakness supporting precious metals Surprising correlation: Nasdaq & S&P 500 also hit records alongside gold TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance : $3,700 - Key psychological level $3,750 - Next major target $3,800 - Extended upside if dovish Support : $3,660 - First support for entries $3,610 - Major support level Previous swing lows - Stop loss reference WARNINGS: Double divergence on 4H & 1H timeframes 100% Fibonacci extension reached RSI overbought conditions Momentum diverging from price action FOMC SCENARIOS: Bullish Case : Dovish 25bps + accommodative guidance → Target $3,750-$3,800 Risk Case : Hawkish surprise or even neutral tone → Profit-taking toward $3,600-$3,500 KEY RISKS: Powell emphasising inflation persistence Resistance to aggressive cutting cycle Hawkish dot plot projections Any break below $3,660 signals deeper correction potential This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by ThinkMarkets
Detailed Analysis of Gold (XAU/USD)Gold recently tested record highs around $3675, but prices are showing corrections as traders must have started booking profits from the extreme high level. On the 4H chart, the price action remains within an ascending channel, suggesting that the broader trend still carries mild bullish momentum. After touching the lower trendline of the channel, gold is showing signs of stabilization, but upside momentum is weakening. The immediate support lies between $3636 (Fib 0.236 level) and $3620 (middle Bollinger Band) — a breakdown below this zone could trigger further correction toward $3612–$3593 (Fib 0.382–0.5 levels). On the upside, if gold holds above the channel support, recovery toward $3675 highs cannot be ruled out, though momentum indicators suggest caution. Overall: Gold is still in a short-term bullish structure but vulnerable to deeper pullbacks if the key $3636–3620 zone breaks.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by Nadia_farhat
GOLD hits new all-time high, watch out for FedOANDA:XAUUSD continued to rise sharply, renewing all-time highs, currently trading around 3,678 USD/oz. Gold rose thanks to the weak Dollar and US Treasury yields. In addition, there was new news about Trump's tariffs. The US plans to add steel and aluminum derivatives to the tariff list. Trade uncertainty has contributed to the increase in gold prices. The US Dollar Index TVC:DXY fell 0.3% on Monday and is now down another 0.11% at 97.235, hitting a one-week low, and the 10-year Treasury yield also weakened, reflecting that investors are preparing for a possible rate cut ahead of the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated meeting this week. The weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated gold more attractive because of the inverse correlation between the two assets. Regarding Trump's tariffs, according to a notice issued by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Monday, the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) has established a process to include additional steel and aluminum derivatives in the tariff scope authorized by President Trump under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. The notice said the filing period for the September 2025 period has begun. The filing period will begin on September 15, 2025, and end at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on September 29, 2025. Traders are gearing up for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting on September 16-17. Expectations for a rate cut are high, and as a result, US Treasury yields fell sharply on Monday. Gold prices are reflecting the restart of the Fed's easing cycle amid mixed data. Inflation remains high, but a revised jobs report last Tuesday showed that job growth from April 2024 to March 2025 was overestimated by 911,000, raising concerns about a labor market downturn. As a result, last week’s data and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s abrupt change of heart at the Jackson Hole symposium in late August have opened the door to a 25 basis point rate cut. However, few still expect the Fed to cut by 50 basis points. Along with their decision, Fed officials will also release their latest economic projections and a “dot plot” of interest rates, in which the committee charts the future path of the federal funds rate. Investors will be watching U.S. retail sales data on Tuesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday, which could shape gold’s price direction ahead of the Fed’s decision. Focus on Federal Reserve Decision The Federal Reserve will meet this week under unusually heavy pressure as US President Trump seeks greater influence over monetary policy and the Senate clears a seat for White House economic adviser Milan to join the rate-setting committee in time for a vote at its policy meeting on Wednesday. On Monday, Trump tweeted that he was calling on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to cut the benchmark interest rate “much more aggressively,” and hinted at the need for more aggressive monetary easing, citing the housing market as an example. This came just ahead of this week’s Fed meeting. Traders have fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut at the September 16-17 FOMC meeting and see a 5% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s (CME) FedWatch tool. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues to renew its all-time high, surpassing the 0.618% Fibonacci extension level noted by readers in the previous issue. And now, it is likely to continue towards the full price level of $3,700 with all the technical indicators in place. The RSI is operating in the overbought area (80-100) but has not shown any signal for a possible price decrease, a signal for a corrective price decrease is when the RSI bends down below 80. Therefore, in terms of momentum, gold remains very resilient. The short-term trend is highlighted by the price channel, while the main support is from the EMA21. As long as gold remains above the raw price point of $3,600, the main technical outlook in the short-term is bullish, the dips should only be viewed as a short-term correction or a new buying opportunity. During the day, the bullish outlook for gold will be highlighted again by the following positions. Support: $3,677 – $3,645 Resistance: $3,700 – $3,722 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3699 - 3697⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3703 →Take Profit 1 3691 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3685 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3645 - 3647⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3641 →Take Profit 1 3653 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3659
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2
XAU/USD technical analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update Technical of Gold (XAU/USD) using the 4H timeframe. Let’s break down the idea behind it: --- Key Technical Insights: 1. H4 FVG (Fair Value Gap) Zone: The yellow box (~3602 zone) is marked as an imbalance area (FVG) where price is likely to retrace. Market structure suggests that price may dip into this zone to fill the imbalance before continuing upward. 2. Price Pattern (Consolidation / Pennant): Current price action shows a triangle/pennant-like consolidation after a strong bullish move. This usually indicates continuation, but first, liquidity grabs may occur. 3. Liquidity Grab (Liquidity $$$): The chart notes a liquidity sweep above resistance (~3659). This suggests that price could fake out higher first, then drop to fill the FVG zone before resuming the bullish move. 4. Target Points: Short-term downside target: 3602.487 (H4 FVG support). Upside target 1: 3659.154 (liquidity area). Upside target 2: 3699.778 (main bullish target). 5. RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently around 57–60, showing moderate bullish momentum but not overbought. Supports the idea of a retracement before continuation. --- Trade Idea Summary: Bias: Bullish (after retracement) Scenario: 1. Price may first grab liquidity (fake-out up) or directly retrace down. 2. Dip into the 3602 FVG zone. 3. Strong bounce expected → rally toward 3659 and 3699 targets. Entry Idea: Look for long entries near 3602–3610 zone (confirmation with bullish candle patterns preferred). Targets: TP1: 3659 TP2: 3699 Stop-Loss: Below the FVG zone (~3580). Mr SMC Trading point --- Conclusion: This is a bullish continuation setup where Gold could correct down into the H4 FVG zone before resuming its larger uptrend. The plan focuses on buying dips rather than chasing highs. --- Please support boost 🚀 this analysis
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SMC-Trading-Point
1
Gold XAUUSD: Anticipating a Retracement for Continuation Long📊 Currently watching Gold (XAUUSD), price has been pushing aggressively higher in a strong bullish trend. However, the market is now reaching into areas of thin liquidity, appearing somewhat overextended. 🔎 I’m anticipating a potential retracement toward the 50% equilibrium level of the previous price swing. Within an ongoing uptrend, the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement often acts as a prime entry zone 🏹 for continuation trades. ⚖️ If price pulls back and establishes support, followed by a bullish break of market structure, that would provide a high-probability opportunity. If the setup fails to materialize, then there’s simply no trade — patience is key. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is educational analysis only and not financial advice. Always manage risk appropriately.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by fxtraderanthony
Gold – patience versus greedThe current rise in gold to the 3640–3650 range resembles a protracted consolidation rather than a confident trend. The price remains within the upward channel, but there is a risk of correction accumulating near the current values. Key levels to watch are 3629 and 3618: a break and consolidation below will open the way to 3575, where important support lies. Within the range, the market is behaving nervously – false breaks are becoming commonplace, which increases uncertainty for those who are rushing into positions. Fundamentally, pressure on gold is being driven by expectations ahead of the Fed meeting and weak dollar statistics: investors remain in “wait-and-see mode.” While the dollar is correcting in a downtrend, gold is receiving support, but without new catalysts, an upward breakout is unlikely. Rather, the market is looking for a balance of forces to determine who will lead - buyers or sellers. The tactical plan boils down to not playing guessing games. In the event of a decline below 3618, confirmation of the bearish scenario with a target of 3575 will appear. If buyers keep the price above 3640, another attempt to storm the highs is likely. At such moments, it is important not to try to outsmart the market, but to wait until it shows the direction itself. Sometimes the best trade is simply not to rush.
TVC:GOLDShort
by TotoshkaTrades
GOLD-SELL srategy monthly chart reg. channelThe longer-term picture clearly shows we are overbought on the extreme side, and a major correction is imminent. However, short-term we are still positive, but for those that are able to trade medium-term to long-term, scaling in slowly on sell side may be a reasonable strategy to have. Strategy SELL between $ 3,500 - 3,800 and take profit near $ 2,850 for now. This should be carefully done with proper levering and scaling in, is my personal viewpoint.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by peterbokma
Gold Enters a Turbulent Phase In my previous analysis , I noted that OANDA:XAUUSD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! was preparing to break out of a prolonged re-accumulation phase (April–August 2025). This scenario has played out: the market confidently broke above the upper boundaries of the range. At the moment, the price is most likely completing wave 3 of the impulse, which has shown a classic extension (~2.618 of wave 1). Next, I expect a correction in the form of a triangle or a flat correction (lasting 2–3 weeks). During this period, the volume accumulated below will be redistributed, followed by one more final upside climax. The local wave count may look like this:
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by shakatrade1_618
Gold Tests Key Reversal Zone – Bears on WatchGold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) completed the move as I expected in my previous idea , both the down and up moves I expected. Gold is currently moving in the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks . In terms of Elliott wave theory , it looks like Gold is completing the 5th microwaves of the main wave 3 . I expect Gold to start correcting in the coming hours and drop to at least $3,593(First Target) . Second Target: $3,583 Stop Loss(SL): $3,634 Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅ ' like ' ✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by pejman_zwin
34
XAU/USD on Fire — Next Stop $3,750?Gold (XAU/USD) on the 1H chart is currently maintaining a bullish structure, with price trading around $3,644 after bouncing from the $3,610 support zone. This area has repeatedly acted as a demand level, confirming that buyers are defending dips. The market has been forming higher lows and higher highs, which reinforces the bullish bias. On the upside, the price faces resistance around $3,674–$3,700, which aligns with the marked take-profit zone. If bulls manage to push above $3,700 with momentum, the next extension target could be near $3,750, a psychological level and a historically reactive price point. On the downside, $3,610 remains a key invalidation level; a break below could shift momentum back toward sellers. From a momentum perspective, recent buying signals around the lower zones confirm continued interest from institutional buyers. The recent cluster of selling signals near $3,670 reflects short-term supply pressure, but price behavior shows that demand is gradually absorbing that. ________________________________________ ✅ Trade Setup (Bullish) • Entry: $3,645 – $3,650 • Stop Loss: Below $3,610 • Take Profit 1: $3,674 • Take Profit 2: $3,700 • Extended Target: $3,750 ________________________________________ Risk handling is critical here. The setup offers a 1:1.5 to 1:2 risk/reward, depending on entry execution. A smart approach would be to book partial profits at $3,674, then trail the stop-loss to breakeven. If price breaks above $3,674 convincingly, use a trailing stop strategy under each new higher low on the 1H chart. This allows traders to lock in gains while still staying exposed to the larger bullish move. In short, Gold remains poised for a bullish breakout, with strong upside potential if resistance levels are cleared. Careful trade management with partial exits and trailing stops will ensure traders maximize profit while limiting risk. ________________________________________
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SupertradeOfficial
Gold Bulls in Full ControlHi everyone, it’s Ken here! XAUUSD is maintaining a strong uptrend, and based on my observation, the market is likely to continue moving toward the channel top marked on the chart. The current zone plays a crucial role. It could act as a support level that allows price to bounce higher. However, if this zone breaks, a deeper corrective move may start to unfold. While I lean toward the bullish scenario, actual price action will ultimately determine the next direction. A decisive break below the trendline would invalidate the bullish outlook and open the risk of a pause or even a short-term reversal. This is only my personal view based on chart analysis, not financial advice. Wishing you success!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Kenn_Nguyen
6
growth, towards new ATH 3715⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Gold (XAU/USD) eased slightly on Tuesday after hitting a new record high near $3,690, as traders adjusted positions ahead of key central bank events. The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps on Wednesday amid signs of labor market weakness, though attention will center on updated projections and Chair Powell’s remarks for clues on the policy outlook. These signals are likely to shape USD moves and set the next direction for bullion. ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: Gold price continues to increase, market continues to fomo. Big buying force waiting for interest rate results to pump strongly ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥SELL GOLD zone: 3713- 3715 SL 3720 TP1: $3703 TP2: $3692 TP3: $3680 🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3656-$3654 SL $3649 TP1: $3666 TP2: $3678 TP3: $3690 ⭐️Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order. ⭐️NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Nova-Scalper
1
Gold vs Dollar – Bullish Confirmation & Risk Management PlanXAU/USD "The Gold vs US Dollar" - Metal Market Cash Flow Management Strategy ⚡ (Swing/Day Trade) 📊 Trading Plan: ✅ Bias : Bullish confirmation spotted as Hull Moving Average shows an upside pullback trend. ✅ Entry Idea : Flexible entry with layering strategy (scaling in with multiple limit orders) : $3650 $3660 $3670 $3680 ( You can add more layers depending on your risk and strategy preference. ) 🛡️ Risk Management: Suggested Protective Stop Loss : around $3630 (after breakout levels). ⚠️ Note : Please adjust SL based on your personal strategy and risk tolerance — this is not a fixed recommendation. 🎯 Target Outlook: Short-term resistance expected near $3740 (where moving averages converge + overbought conditions may trigger profit-taking traps). Idea: secure profits before market reversals. ⚠️ Note : Target levels are flexible. You can adjust according to your own plan and market conditions. 🔑 Key Points: Hull MA Pullback → signals bullish continuation. Layered Entry → improves average price & manages volatility. Exit Discipline → respect your risk plan, don't rely solely on posted SL/TP. 🔗 Related Pairs to Watch (Correlation & Flow): 🟢 OANDA:XAGUSD (Silver/USD) → Often moves in tandem with gold, can confirm metal market strength. 🟢 TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index) → Inverse correlation with gold; weak USD = stronger gold. 🟢 FX:EURUSD → Euro strength usually aligns with gold bullish momentum. 🟢 FX:USDJPY → Safe-haven flows: when JPY strengthens, gold tends to follow. ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated - it helps me share more setups with the community!” #XAUUSD #Gold #Forex #DayTrading #SwingTrading #HullMA #TradingStrategy #RiskManagement #Metals #FXAnalysis #DXY #TechnicalAnalysis
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by The-Thief
Breakout Confirmed, Macro Drivers & Key Liquidity Zones 🚀 XAUUSD | MMFLOW TRADING 📊 Market Context & Macro View Gold (XAUUSD) has confirmed a breakout above its short-term descending trendline, signalling renewed bullish momentum after several sessions of compression. This move comes as traders price in slowing US inflation and increasing confidence that the Federal Reserve could pause or even ease monetary policy in the coming months. 🔹 Macro Drivers Supporting Gold: US CPI & PPI softness → Indicates cooling inflation, reinforcing expectations for stable or lower rates. Treasury yields steady, while a weaker USD provides an additional tailwind for gold prices. Geopolitical tensions and central bank accumulation continue to underpin long-term bullish sentiment. ⚠ Risk: Liquidity sweeps remain a possibility ahead of next week’s Fed meeting—watch for false breakouts and sharp reversals. 🔑 Key Technical Levels (H1) Immediate Resistance: 3,654.17 (React Zone FIB) OBS Sell Zone: 3,664.52 Upper Liquidity Target: 3,679.31 Major Sell Liquidity: 3,709.85 Supports / Buy Liquidity Zones: • 3,637.91 – Breakout Retest • 3,631.63 – CP Support • 3,622.41 – Deeper Liquidity Layer • 3,584.78 – END Liquidity BUY ZONE 📈 Scenario & Outlook London Session: Expect a retest of breakout zones (3,638–3,632) for liquidity collection before another potential leg higher. A clean break through 3,654 → 3,664 could trigger fresh buying momentum toward 3,679–3,709. Failure to hold 3,622 would expose deeper support at 3,584 as the next key level. 📌 Trading Plan 🔵 BUY ZONE 1: 3,635 – 3,633 SL: 3,629 TP: 3,640 → 3,645 → 3,650 → 3,660 → 3,670 → ??? 🔵 BUY ZONE 2: 3,621 – 3,619 SL: 3,615 TP: 3,625 → 3,630 → 3,635 → 3,640 → 3,650 → 3,660 → ??? 🔴 SELL ZONE: 3,708 – 3,710 SL: 3,715 TP: 3,704 → 3,700 → 3,695 → 3,690 → 3,680 → ??? 🔴 SELL SCALP: 3,679 – 3,681 SL: 3,685 TP: 3,675 → 3,670 → 3,665 → 3,660 → ??? ✅ Summary Gold is holding its breakout above key levels, supported by softer US inflation data and a weaker USD. Liquidity sweeps may occur in the near term, but the broader trend remains bullish as long as 3,622 holds. 👉 Follow MMFLOW TRADING for real-time updates, liquidity scenarios, and BIGWIN trade setups as gold reacts to macro drivers and critical technical zones.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading