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THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT Quick KOG Report this week. Firstly, we would say it’s the first trading day of the new month so maybe an idea to let the market find it’s feet before jumping in. We’re only going to share the potential path this week and the red box target levels on the breaks. We’ll also stick with some of the red boxes from last week with the new levels to watch out for. RED BOXES: Break above 4010 for 4016, 4030, 4044 and 4050 in extension of the move Break below 4001 for 3995, 3986, 3971 and 3959 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
26
XAUUSD GOLDGold price on the 4H chart is forming a bullish breakout pattern from a descending wedge, trading near the 3,997 zone. A confirmed breakout above the trendline could trigger upward momentum toward the 4,120–4,160 target area, while holding above the 3,960 support will keep the bullish outlook valid. "Thank you for your support! If you found this idea valuable or learned something new, please consider liking and leaving a comment. I’d really appreciate hearing your feedback and thoughts."
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Pintu_sahu01
XAU/USD Analysis — Awaiting Breakout Confirmation for Bull Entry🏆 XAU/USD GOLD vs U.S. DOLLAR 🏆 📊 Swing/Day Trade Opportunity Guide 🎯 THE THIEF STRATEGY SETUP Market: Precious Metals | Pair: XAU/USD (Spot Gold) Timeframe: Multi-Timeframe Confirmation Strategy Type: Breakout + Dynamic Support/Resistance 💡 BULLISH CASE CONFIRMED ✅ The bulls are on patrol! 🚨 Multiple confluences suggest an upside move: ✨ LSMA (Least Squares Moving Average) acting as dynamic support with multiple touch confirmations — classic reversal signal for swing traders. The metal is respecting this lower boundary like a fortress wall. ⚠️ Breakout Confirmation Required: Watch for a decisive close above 4,060.00 — this level marks a critical moving average resistance zone. Once breached, this becomes our green light for layered entries. 💰 ENTRY STRATEGY: "THE LAYERING THIEF METHOD" 💎 Instead of FOMO-ing into one position, we deploy the layered entry approach — multiple limit orders like a professional accumulator: 📍 Buy Limit Layers (After Breakout Confirmation): Layer 1️⃣: 3,920.00 ← Initial dip catch Layer 2️⃣: 3,960.00 ← Continuation entry Layer 3️⃣: 4,000.00 ← Mid-zone accumulation Layer 4️⃣: 4,040.00 ← Final confirmation level ⚡ Pro Tip: Scale these layers based on your account size and risk tolerance. You can add more layers every $20-$40 intervals. 🔔 CRITICAL: ✋ Wait for breakout confirmation above 4,060.00 before placing any buy orders. Premature entries = Stolen profits going nowhere! ❌ 🛑 STOP LOSS (Risk Management) Thief SL Level: 3,880.00 🎯 This is where the heist ends if the plan fails. Close below this support = Exit the building! 🚪 ⚠️ Disclaimer Note: This stop loss is suggested as a reference point. Your SL placement depends on your risk appetite, account size, and trading personality. We're not financial advisors — only fellow traders sharing our playbook! Trade at your own risk. 💪 🎪 PROFIT TARGET: "THE POLICE BARRICADE" 🚔 Target Zone: 4,360.00 🏁 Why this level? Multiple reasons converge here: 📈 Strong historical resistance acting as a "police barricade" 🔴 Overbought conditions signal potential pullback territory ⚠️ Trap zone detected — this is where smart money takes profits! Strategy: Scale out your positions as price approaches this zone. Don't get greedy and lose the win! ⚠️ Disclaimer Note: This profit target is OUR suggested zone, but YOU decide when to take profits. The choice is yours — stack those wins or hold for more. No financial advice here, just trading wisdom shared among Thief OG's! 🎩 🔗 CORRELATED PAIRS TO MONITOR 📡 Watch these related instruments for confluence signals: 💵 USD Index ( TVC:DXY ) — Inverse relationship with gold. If DXY weakens → XAU/USD strengthens. Monitor for divergence opportunities. 🏦 SPX500 ( CAPITALCOM:US500 ) — Risk sentiment indicator. Rising stocks = potential gold weakness. Use as confirmation filter. FX:EURUSD — EUR strength = potential gold support. Cross-market divergences often precede major moves. FX:GBPUSD — Pound weakness often correlates with gold rallies. Track for multi-timeframe alignment. TVC:US10Y (10-Year Treasury Yield) — Inverse correlation. Rising yields = headwind for gold. Monitor daily for macro context. 📋 QUICK CHECKLIST ✅ Confirm LSMA support holds Wait for 4,060.00 breakout confirmation Place layered buy limits at 3,920/3,960/4,000/4,040 Set stop loss at 3,880.00 Scale profits into 4,360.00 resistance zone Monitor correlated pairs for confluence Respect risk management — never exceed 2% per trade 🎬 THE BOTTOM LINE 🎬 Gold is setting up for a potential swing trade move. The LSMA support is holding, and a breakout above 4,060.00 could trigger a run toward 4,360.00. Use the layering strategy to build positions methodically, protect capital with your chosen stop loss, and exit into resistance zones. This is a confluence-based breakout play — not a guarantee, just probability on our side. 🎲 ✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community! #XAU/USD #GoldTrading #TradingStrategy #SwingTrade #DayTrading #ForexAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #ThiefStrategy #LSMA #BreakoutTrading #RiskManagement #TradingCommunity #MarketAnalysis #Commodities #MetalsMarket
SAXO:XAUUSD
by The-Thief
Report 4/11/25My take By Thursday, Nov 6, Tesla shareholders are widely expected to approve a record incentive plan for Elon Musk that hard-wires governance around a “physical-AI” vision (robotaxis + humanoid robots) that still contributes almost nothing to current cash flow. Street frameworks now ascribe the majority of TSLA’s value to those options (Robotaxi ~45%, Optimus ~19%), with autos/FSD/energy the minority. The market’s message: governance clarity > near-term delivery softness. Around that, Big Tech just drew a bright line between asset-heavy AI (Meta, Alphabet) and asset-lighter cash return (Apple), while cloud scale (Microsoft, AWS) remains the only place AI capex throws off immediate P&L. Macro remains risk-supportive: a fragile U.S.–China truce shaved tail risks; September CPI printed 3.0% y/y; labor demand is eroding slowly rather than breaking; tariffs haven’t been the inflation doomsday nor a manufacturing panacea; and the Fed’s bias is to cushion jobs. Bottom line for the next 1–4 weeks: constructive equities, a heavy-ish dollar, oil with a floor (China stockpiling), gold supported on dips, and U.S. duration underpinned by the Fed’s growth-risk focus. TSLA trades on path-dependence headlines (vote, autonomy milestones) more than quarterly units. What happened Tesla’s governance and the “optionality premium.”
The Nov 6 vote would lift Musk’s potential stake toward ~25% upon hitting extremely ambitious hurdles (including ~$8.5T market value within ~10 years). Bulls argue Musk’s speed, data advantage, and “touching the physical world” moat justify paying now for AI scale later; bears see a long monetization runway with FSD still supervised and Robotaxi “in park.” Either way, approval reduces overhangs (control/retention), which usually compresses risk premia short term even if fundamentals haven’t changed. AI spending bifurcation.
Meta’s rising capex/depreciation turned it into a show-me stock; Alphabet is spending even more but can rent out capacity via Cloud; Apple stays asset-light and keeps the cash-return flywheel spinning. Microsoft and AWS are the current “AI rainmakers,” monetizing AI demand through cloud—and the OpenAI–Amazon multiyear compute pact reinforces AWS’s backlog and narrative. Banks leaning into returns.
Bank of America’s investor day (Wed, Nov 5) will likely pivot rhetoric from “responsible growth” to “more growth” with a higher ROTCE target (16–18%). In a soft-landing tape with Fed cuts still in play, that’s a tailwind for large-cap financials and the Dow, provided investors buy the bridge from talk to delivery. Macro backdrop.
A partial U.S.–China detente (tariffs eased at the margin, rare-earth curbs delayed, soybean purchases back) removed worst-case escalation—for now. CPI at 3.0% and the Fed’s emphasis on employment risks (Gov. Cook) keep cuts live. Tariff pass-through has been muted (firms eating a chunk via margins and rerouting), reducing the odds of a policy-error inflation spike. China’s aggressive crude stockpiling plus Russia-flow workarounds put a floor under oil—limiting downside even in oversupplied quarters. Cross-asset impact S&P 500 (SPX).
Bias remains upward with a “breadth-with-quality” tilt. Cloud/platform names with direct AI monetization (and discipline on capex) should out-earn pure spenders; financials benefit if BofA’s playbook catalyzes a sector rerate; cyclicals get a small boost from trade calm. Watch: any hawkish inflection from the Fed or a re-flare in tariffs would hit multiples first. Dow Jones (DJI).
Constructive. Banks + industrials + energy benefit from (i) ROTCE rhetoric, (ii) tariff de-escalation optics, (iii) a firmer crude floor. Downside risk: fresh U.S.–Canada tariff noise would nick North American industrials/autos sentiment. DXY (U.S. Dollar Index).
Leaning softer into year-end as the Fed prioritizes labor risks and trade frictions cool. The path isn’t linear—enforcement shocks (Russia energy, export bans) can create tactical USD squeezes—but base case is a 97–100 range with a drift lower on any dovish Fed signaling. USDJPY.
Still elevated on policy divergence and higher oil, with 151–155 the volatility zone. A softer broad USD from trade calm + Fed cuts could cap upside, but without a BOJ policy shift or stealth action, dips are shallow. Event risk: rapid yen spikes if authorities lean harder near 153–155. XAUUSD (Gold).
Supported on dips. Central-bank demand + sanctions/geopolitical hedging offset drag from positive real yields. Improved risk mood can stall upside tactically; structurally the bid persists. Expect a choppy but rising channel if DXY eases and policy uncertainty (tariffs, elections, sanctions) lingers. Crude (Brent).
Range with a floor. China’s stockpiling and episodic sanctions headlines keep $63–$70 plausible near term; sustained upside requires tougher enforcement that truly crimps Russian flows/financing. Macro risk-on + trade de-escalation argue against a collapse toward low-$50s unless China slows buying. Tesla: how to think about risk/reward into and after the vote Into Nov 6: Approval removes a governance overhang; shares tend to trade with an “execution optionality” premium when control/continuity is secured. Near term (0–6 months): Fundamentals remain EV-demand sensitive (post-credit pull-forward) and FSD is still supervised; the stock trades on catalysts—pilot Robotaxi progress, Optimus milestones, AI data-center scaling, and regulatory signposts. Medium term (6–24 months): Multiple durability depends on converting narrative power into cash-flow line-items: real autonomy miles under permissive regimes, unit economics for robots, and take-rates that move revenue/GM. Without that, the equity re-anchors to autos/energy cash generation. Strategy notes & positioning ideas Equities: Favor quality cloud/platforms with visible AI monetization; barbell with selective financials (ROTCE momentum) and international value where USD softness helps. Rates/FX: Modest long in belly duration still works while the Fed leans growth-risk; fade USD strength on enforcement headlines; respect yen intervention risk above ~153. Commodities: Brent call spreads over puts while China is stockpiling; keep strategic gold as policy/geopolitical hedge. TSLA: Treat post-vote strength as path-dependent: add only against concrete autonomy/robot milestones, reduce on governance pass-through without operating proof.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Buranku
Gold on Intra-day Selling pressureTechnical analysis: Sellers still haven’t missed their estimate as Gold aggressively invalidated #4,000.80 benchmark on multiple occasions (posing as an hard Support zone), due geo-political tensions as a strong catalyst which is putting DX in High demand on Weekly interval. Environment and general market sentiment remains however Gold friendly (about to engage relief rally) due to the Supply-Demand mechanism. DX and Gold are still diagonally correlated, their charts are again on Positive-Negative match which is elemental sign of correlation. This suggests that DX tested its multi-Month Resistance zone, and Gold is under mild Selling pressure. This doesn't affect my local Low’s Buying strategy even though Gold is isolated within Hourly 4 chart healthy Descending Channel that by my estimations will sustain according to all accounts and there are no signs of a rebound yet (it is a reversal pattern most of the times). Weekly chart was Trading near strong Support belt which was aggressively corrected Intra-day so I will not make a strategy shift and will trust my Medium to Long-term Bull model as long as Buying spree on Gold lasts. I have to be excessively careful with today's session as it represents crossroads for the Short-term. My position: I have Sold Bought Gold throughout yesterday's session from #3,998.80 especially towards #4,008.80 (aggressive Scalps) and called it for the session. Gold delivered significant Intra-day losses on Asian session and turned timefrimes to Bearish territory. Today is Intra-day Sell session and will continue Selling Gold from my key entry points.
TVC:GOLDShort
by goldenBear88
XAUUSD H4 | Bearish Drop OffGold (XAU/USD) has rejected off the sell entry, which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to the downside. Sell entry is at 4,017.82, whic his a pullback resistance that lines up witht he 23.6% Fibonacci retracemnt. Stop loss is at 4,135.96, whic is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 3,789.94, which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
TRADU:XAUUSDShort
by Tradu
Gold is sideways and waiting for a breakout⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Gold (XAU/USD) slips toward $4,000 in early Asian trading on Tuesday as investors scale back expectations for additional Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. Markets now await comments from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman later in the day. Last week, the Fed delivered its second rate cut of the year, lowering the benchmark range to 3.75%–4.00%. However, Chair Jerome Powell’s remark that another cut is “not a foregone conclusion” reinforced a hawkish tone, pressuring the non-yielding metal. ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: Gold price is still maintaining the accumulation price range, not clearly determining a certain trend. Waiting for a breakout. ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥SELL GOLD zone: 4089 - 4091 SL 4096 TP1: $4076 TP2: $4050 TP3: $4030 🔥BUY GOLD zone: 3922 - 3920 SL 3915 TP1: $3940 TP2: $3950 TP3: $3965 ⭐️Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable sell order. ⭐️NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Nova-Scalper
3
XAUUSD Bear Cycle has started and this is why according to VIX.Gold (XAUUSD) closed 2 straight red weeks, which last did on June 23. Despite this pull-back, it remains within a Channel Up since the October 31 2022 Low, which was essentially when the Bear Cycle ended and the new Bull Cycle (Channel Up) started. The previous Bull Cycle topped around 4.5 months after the Volatility Index (VIX) shown in blue, peaked during the March 2020 COVID flash crash. We are now on a similar situation as VIX topped on the week of March 31 2025 during the Trade War and has since started to decline aggressively. Gold's current top was 6.5 months after VIX's top. Even the 1W RSI sequences between the two Bull Cycles are similar, further raising the degree of their high symmetry. According to this correlation, Gold may has already formed its Bull Cycle Top 3 weeks ago and could be starting a new +2 year Bear Cycle. As far as a Target and Bottom is concerned, the previous Bear Cycle almost hit its 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level three times throughout the Cycle, until it broke below it marginally for its September - October 2022 bottom. As a result, we are looking for the 0.382 Fib yet again as our focal point which is currently around $3000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by TradingShot
GOLD XAUUSD 4HR CHARTBUYERS ARE ON CAUTION MODE ,the rejection at 4033-4043 was watched critically for possible break and close ,but buyers failed after many attempt on the descending trendline line .the close of 4th saw more correction following a new found hope for dollar index after the index break and close of daily supply roof, now dollar index approaching 100 $ mark. the Sydney /Asian gold buyers seen to be on cautious mode on the current demand floor 3921-3933 level, should they try to buy it will still end in sell hopefully around any possible retest zone . technical support based on strategy will be 3855-3865 zone technical support zone based on strategy will be 3753.67-3745 zone . NOTE;TRADING IS 100% PROBABILITY,ANY KEY LEVEL CAN FAIL. MANAGE YOUR RISK. FUNDAMENTAL ON GOLD . Gold's reclassification as a Basel III Tier 1 asset marks a significant upgrade in how regulators and banks view gold within global financial systems. Why Gold is Reclassified as Basel III Tier 1 Tier 1 Status Definition: Under Basel III, Tier 1 assets are the highest quality capital assets that banks can use to meet their core capital requirements. These assets carry a 0% risk weight, reflecting their safety, liquidity, and reliability as capital. Gold’s Historical Status: Gold has already been recognized as a Tier 1 asset for capital adequacy since the Basel I Accords in 1988, due to its status as a safe store of value with very low default risk. New Recognition (2025): Starting July 1, 2025, physical gold held by banks can be counted at 100% of its market value in regulatory capital calculations, instead of being subject to significant haircuts or lower classifications (e.g., previously it was treated as a Tier 3 asset with a 50% deduction). High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) Label: This reclassification means gold is now officially recognized as a High-Quality Liquid Asset under Basel III, allowing it to qualify as part of banks’ liquidity coverage ratios (LCR), an important step for liquidity and capital management. Regulatory Shift: This reflects changing perceptions that gold is not just a commodity but a true monetary asset. It is increasingly accepted as a reliable reserve asset by central banks and financial institutions worldwide. Central Bank Adoption: This move aligns with continued aggressive gold buying by central banks, recognizing gold’s importance for capital reserves, systemic stability, and as an inflation hedge. Significance Banks can fully count gold toward core capital reserves. Reduces capital burden, improving bank balance sheets and financial resilience. Endorses gold as a strategic, monetary asset, not just a commodity investment. Encourages institutional demand for physical gold and gold-related financial products. Summary Gold was reclassified as a Basel III Tier 1 asset starting July 1, 2025, reflecting its highest quality capital standing with 0% risk weighting and full market value recognition. This elevates gold’s status to a High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) for regulatory purposes, facilitating banks’ liquidity coverage and capital adequacy. The change signals a major regulatory and market shift, acknowledging gold as a core reserve and strategic financial asset in modern banking systems. #GOLD #XAUUSD
BLACKBULL:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
2
GOLD I Weekly CLS I Model 2 - Target 50% I Eventually ATH...Hi friends, new range created. As always we are looking for the manipulation in to the key level around the range. Don't forget confirmation switch from manipulation phase to the distribution phase to make the setup valid. Stay patient and enter only after change in order flow. If price reaches 50% of the range take partial or full close. 📌 HTF - Higher Timeframe view 🧩 Complete proces and Strategy explained 👇 Click Below 🎯 Why your market approach also should be mechanical ? NO Fixed Mechanical Trading Logic - You are guessing random patterns NO Defined trading plan - Every trade different logic NO Same logic in each trade - Not possible to backtest NO Backtests on at least 300 trades - Not knowing Statistics ➡️ No Statistics ➡️ No Edge ➡️ Mindset ProblemS 🧠 Core of mindset problems If you don't know your statistics on large enough data sample. You don't know your probabilities of win rate once the losing streak happen and it happens to every strategy. You will start doubting, hesitating to take next trade because you don't know statistics of your losses. In the end you will be doubting strategy and then jump to different one. You will be in the endless loop for years, looking for new better strategy. 👊 Your ultimate goal as a trader is not to be a generalist who knows 10 000 patterns. But rather create one system with narrowed criteria of each element of the trade to remove subjective and emotional decisions as much as possible and stick to this system no matter what. Practice it 10 000 times become a MASTER. ✨ Trading Mastery is reflection of your life Have a longterm plan, No Alcohol & Drugs, Ignore others, Focus on your journey , Backtest regularly, Review your weeks, Journal mistakes, Exercise, Sleep well, Read books, Walks in nature (no phone) , Meditate, Reduce social media time, Spend time with family, Live Life. Trading is hard, but not impossible. I believe in you 💪 David Perk aka Dave Fx Hunter
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by David_Perk
27
XAUUSDGold: The main trend remains up, but after testing the $4,380 level, the price was unable to break above this level and the price declined. We expect this to be a correction, with key support levels at 3,885 and 3,857. If the price can hold above 3,857, there is a high chance that the price will continue to rise. ** Very Risky Trade 🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you. >>GooD Luck 😊 ❤️ Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Serana2324
2
Market Psychology: Gold vs Bitcoin - Where We Really Are🧠 The Psychology Test That Changes Everything Here's a simple test that will tell you everything about where TVC:GOLD and IG:BITCOIN is in its cycle: Look at these two charts. Which one screams "bull market euphoria"? ──────────────────────────────────── Chart One 🥇 TVC:GOLD : A Textbook Bull Market Current Price: $4,000.92 Peak Price: $4,390 (Recently hit) RSI: 69.15 Phase: EUPHORIA → COMPLACENCY (Post-peak pullback) What the Psychology Chart Shows: Looking at FOREXCOM:XAUUSD price action overlaid with the Wall Street Cheat Sheet: ✅ Clean parabolic structure - No ambiguity ✅ Multiple phases completed - Hope → Optimism → Belief → Thrill → Euphoria ✅ Peak already hit at $4,390 - The pink Euphoria circle was touched ✅ Now pulling back from peak - Classic post-euphoria behavior ✅ RSI cooling from overbought - Down from 85+ to 69.15 ✅ Volume still elevated as reality sets in This is what a COMPLETED bull market looks like. When you see this chart, you don't second-guess. You don't wonder "is this a bull market?" You KNOW it is. ──────────────────────────────────── Chart Two ₿ IG:BITCOIN : Still in Early Stages Current Price: $101,802.2 RSI: 44.61 Phase: OPTIMISM (not even Belief yet) What the Psychology Chart Shows: Looking at INDEX:BTCUSD price action overlaid with the Wall Street Cheat Sheet: ⚠️ "We are here" marker - Sitting in the OPTIMISM phase ⚠️ Haven't reached Belief yet - The green zone is still ahead ⚠️ Thrill phase - Blue circle far above current price ⚠️ Euphoria phase - Pink circle even further away ⚠️ RSI at 44.61 - Not even close to overbought ⚠️ Fourth Halving marker - April 22, 2024 clearly noted This is what mid-cycle consolidation looks like. ──────────────────────────────────── 🔍 The Critical Difference Let me use an analogy: Think of market cycles like a marathon. FOREXCOM:GOLD (Chart 1): Mile 26 - Just crossed finish line - Race is over, starting to cool down Runners are slowing down after sprint (Post-euphoria) Crowd peaked, now dispersing (Volume still high but declining) Everyone saw the finish (Peak at $4,390) Now wondering if they should have sprinted harder CRYPTOCAP:BTC (Chart 2): Mile 8 of 26 - Still early in the race Runners are fresh and steady (Optimism) Crowd is watching but not cheering wildly yet Most people aren't even at the venue yet Many spectators think the race might be cancelled ──────────────────────────────────── 📊 Side-by-Side Psychology Comparison ──────────────────────────────────── 🎯 What This Tells Us About IG:BITCOIN If COINBASE:BTCUSD were truly at a cycle top, it would look like CAPITALCOM:GOLD : ❌ Parabolic vertical moves ❌ RSI pinned above 75 for weeks ❌ Volume exploding ❌ Everyone saying "Bitcoin to $500K" ❌ Taxi drivers asking about crypto ❌ Magazine covers everywhere ❌ No doubt whatsoever about the trend But OANDA:BTCUSD looks nothing like that: ✅ Choppy consolidation ✅ RSI in neutral zone (44.61) ✅ Volume moderate ✅ Everyone asking "Is the bull market over?" ✅ Retail despair and fear ✅ Zero mainstream coverage ✅ Maximum doubt about the trend ──────────────────────────────────── 💡 The Psychology Principle Here's the key insight from behavioral finance: **"If you have to ask whether you're in a bubble, you're not in a bubble."** TVC:GOLD : No one is asking if TVC:GOLD is in a bull market. It's obvious. IG:BITCOIN : Everyone is asking if IG:BITCOIN is in a bull market. That's your answer. ──────────────────────────────────── 🧩 Where Each Asset Really Is TVC:GOLD - Post-Peak Bear Market Transition: Completed Phases: ✅ Hope (Oct '23 - May '24) ✅ Optimism (May '24 - Dec '24) ✅ Belief (Dec '24 - May '25) ✅ Thrill (May '25 - Sep '25) ✅ EUPHORIA - PEAKED at $4,390 (Oct '2025) Current Phase: 🔶 COMPLACENCY - "It'll come back to $4,390" Price: $4,000.92 (down ~9% from peak) Classic post-euphoria denial behavior What's Next: Anxiety → Denial → Panic → Capitulation (2026+) Time Remaining: Bull market is OVER - bear phase beginning ──────────────────────────────────── KRAKEN:BTCUSD - Early-Mid Bull Market: Completed Phases: ✅ Hope (2023 - Post-FTX recovery) 🟡 OPTIMISM (Current - 2024-2025) Phases Still Ahead: ⬜ Belief ⬜ Thrill ⬜ Euphoria What's Next: Break into Belief phase → Thrill → Euphoria Time Remaining: Given CRYPTOCAP:BTC high volatile nature - 2-6 months of upside potential ──────────────────────────────────── 🎨 The Visual Test (Do This Right Now) Step 1: Look at the TVC:GOLD chart Does it look like a bull market? YES Could you be wrong? NO Is there any doubt? ZERO Step 2: Look at the IG:BITCOIN chart Does it look like a bull market? MAYBE? Could you be wrong? POSSIBLY Is there any doubt? TONS Step 3: Ask yourself **"Would a cycle TOP have this much doubt and fear?"** The answer is NO. ──────────────────────────────────── 📈 What the RSI Divergence Tells Us TVC:GOLD RSI Pattern: Peaked above 85 during euphoria Currently cooling at 69.15 Rolling over from overbought Classic post-peak behavior This is bear market transition IG:BITCOIN RSI Pattern: Sitting at 44.61 Plenty of room to run Not even approaching overbought Recent "Bear" signals flushing out This is early-cycle behavior Think of it like a gas tank: TVC:GOLD : Hit redline at $4,390, now coasting down on fumes IG:BITCOIN : 45% full, tons of room to run ──────────────────────────────────── 🔥 The Contrarian Insight What the majority thinks: " TVC:GOLD is in a bubble, IG:BITCOIN topped" What the charts actually show: TVC:GOLD is in a mature bull market (near end) IG:BITCOIN is in early-mid bull market (tons of runway) The irony: Everyone trusts TVC:GOLD rally (late stage) Everyone doubts IG:BITCOIN rally (early stage) This is exactly backwards. ──────────────────────────────────── 🎭 The Emotional State Comparison TVC:GOLD Holders Right Now: 😰 Starting to feel anxious (down from $4,390) 🤔 "It'll bounce back, right?" 📉 Checking price hoping for recovery 🙃 "I should have sold at $4,390" 😬 "This is just a healthy correction" This is COMPLACENCY - the denial phase after euphoria. IG:BITCOIN Holders Right Now: 😰 Anxious and doubtful 🤐 Not talking about their positions 😔 Wondering if they should sell 📉 Feeling defeated 💀 "Maybe the cycle is over" Which emotional state typically marks: Post-cycle tops? → TVC:GOLD current state (Complacency/Denial after Euphoria peak) Cycle middles? → IG:BITCOIN current state (Doubt during Optimism) ──────────────────────────────────── 💎 The Bottom Line Using the Wall Street Cheat Sheet as our guide: TVC:GOLD : Phase: Thrill → Euphoria Completion: ~95% through cycle Risk/Reward: High risk, limited reward Action: Take profits soon IG:BITCOIN : Phase: Optimism (just finished Hope) Completion: ~30% through cycle Risk/Reward: Moderate risk, massive reward Action: Accumulate aggressively ──────────────────────────────────── 🧠 The Psychology Lesson The market is designed to make you feel wrong at exactly the wrong time: When TVC:GOLD peaked at $4,390 (Euphoria) → You felt confident, " TVC:GOLD to $5K!" Now TVC:GOLD is pulling back (Complacency) → You feel like "it's just a correction" When IG:BITCOIN is cheap and poised (Optimism) → You feel scared to buy This is why most people: Miss selling tops (felt too good at $4,390) Hold through corrections (denial and complacency) Sell bottoms during fear (Optimism feels scary) To win, you must: Trust the structure over the sentiment Buy when it feels uncomfortable (Optimism/Belief) Sell when it feels amazing (Euphoria/Peak) ──────────────────────────────────── 📍 Where We Actually Are HOPE → OPTIMISM( IG:BITCOIN ) → BELIEF → THRILL → EUPHORIA ( TVC:GOLD $4390 Peak) → COMPLACENCY → ( TVC:GOLD Current) IG:BITCOIN is 3-4 phases behind TVC:GOLD . TVC:GOLD already peaked. IG:BITCOIN hasn't even started its parabolic phase yet. ──────────────────────────────────── 🎯 What This Means for Your Portfolio If you're holding TVC:GOLD at $4,000: You missed the peak at $4,390 You're in post-euphoria complacency "It'll bounce back" is denial Risk/reward is terrible now Exit strategy needed YESTERDAY If you're doubting IG:BITCOIN at $102K: You're sitting in Optimism You're early to the party Peak is 3-4 phases away Risk/reward is excellent Accumulation strategy needed NOW ──────────────────────────────────── 🔚 Final Thought The next time someone tells you " IG:BITCOIN topped," show them these two charts side by side. Ask them: "Which one actually topped?" The answer is clear: TVC:GOLD peaked at $4,390 and is now in complacency denial. IG:BITCOIN is still in optimism. TVC:GOLD finished its race. IG:BITCOIN is just finishing Act 1. The Golden Bull Run isn't over—it's barely begun. ──────────────────────────────────── This is educational content comparing market psychology across asset classes. Not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately. ────────────────────────────────────
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSD
by niclaxfx
Release the Pressure: Why Relaxed Traders Win MoreOne of the most overlooked psychological factors in trading is pressure — the silent force that makes you enter trades too early, exit too late, and misread what’s actually happening on the chart. The truth is simple: When you relax, you trade better. The Illusion of “Always Doing Something” Many traders feel that if they’re not in a trade, they’re missing out. The market becomes a constant test of patience — and silence between trades feels unbearable. That’s when poor decisions appear: forced entries, revenge trades, and overtrading to “feel productive.” But the market doesn’t reward effort; it rewards timing. Trading well often looks like doing nothing most of the time. You wait, you observe, and you strike when the setup aligns. This is where the relaxed mindset beats the pressured mindset every single time. Example: Gold (XAUUSD) Between 3960 and 4030 Let’s take gold as an example. As explained in my recent analysis, we have two clear levels to watch — 3960 and 4030. Price is currently trading in between. Even though it may look like it’s pressing upward and could form an ascending triangle, clarity only comes with a real breakout, not with anticipation. A pressured trader will often feel the urge to predict — to “get in early” before confirmation. But the calm trader simply waits. They know that between levels, price action is noise, not opportunity. And when clarity comes — either through a clean breakout or a rejection — the decision is obvious and stress-free. This is what “releasing the pressure” looks like in practice: You don’t force a trade. You let the market reveal the next step. Why Pressure Kills Performance Pressure doesn’t just come from the charts — it comes from expectations. The trader who needs to make x$ per day will subconsciously search for confirmation that a trade exists. Charts suddenly look clearer than they actually are. Bias replaces logic. And objectivity, which is the foundation of good trading, fades away. In reality, the more you need to make money from trading, the harder it becomes to do so. That’s not because the market is cruel — it’s because the human brain under stress stops processing probabilities correctly. The Paradox of Ease Every trader eventually experiences this paradox: The less you try to “make something happen,” the more naturally good trades appear. This isn’t mystical — it’s psychological. When the mind is calm, your ability to notice quality setups improves dramatically. You stop trying to control the market and start aligning with it. It’s the difference between chasing a wave and surfing one. Creating Space to Breathe The professional approach to trading is not about constant activity — it’s about creating the conditions where clarity thrives. That means reducing pressure in three ways: 1. Detach from daily profit goals. The market doesn’t care about your personal targets. Focus on setups, not outcomes. 2. Allow financial breathing room. When your rent, bills, and daily life depend on your next trade, emotional clarity disappears. Build a secondary income or savings buffer — not for luxury, but for mental freedom. 3 . Redefine success. A good trading day is not one with profit — it’s one with discipline. When you measure success by process, not by dollars, you take power back from the market. Final Thought Most traders lose not because they lack skill, but because they trade under pressure. The weight of expectation distorts perception, and the market punishes impatience. Release the pressure — mentally, financially, and emotionally. When you do, trading starts to flow the way it was meant to: Quietly, naturally, profitably.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
17
ANFIBO | XAUUSD - Stuck in Sideway channel [11.6.2025]Hi guys, Anfibo's here! XAUUSD Analysis – Daily Trading Plan Overall Picture: At present, OANDA:XAUUSD is moving sideways within a well-defined H1 channel, showing signs of short-term consolidation after recent volatility. The market is currently lacking a clear directional bias, as both buyers and sellers are testing the upper and lower bounds of this intraday structure. Such conditions often favor range-trading strategies, where precision and timing become crucial for capturing short bursts of momentum. In this context, our plan today remains straightforward and tactical — trade directly off the trendlines of the channel. In other words, we will look to buy at the lower boundary of the range and sell near the upper boundary, while also being prepared to switch positions if a breakout occurs in either direction. Trading Plan for Today: >>> SELL ZONE: (1) ENTRY: 4015 - 4025 SL: 4030 TP: 4050 (2) ENTRY: 4060 - 4080 SL: 4090 TP: 4000 - 3955 Risk Management: - Stick to small-to-medium positions within the range; increase size only on confirmed breakouts. - Keep stops tight, as sideways phases tend to trigger false signals. - Maintain Risk:Reward ≥ 1:2 and avoid overtrading in choppy conditions. - Reassess bias once the H1 channel is clearly broken. Conclusion: Gold is currently in a sideways consolidation phase within its H1 channel, awaiting fresh catalysts to determine direction. Until a decisive breakout occurs, the most effective approach is range trading — buying near support, selling near resistance, and reacting dynamically to any confirmed breakout. The plan today is simple yet strategic: Patience and discipline will be key to capitalizing on this quiet yet potentially explosive setup. HAVE A NICE DAY, GUYS!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ANFIBO_
4
XAU/USD | Gold Fills Liquidity Gap – Another Drop Below $3,900?By analyzing the #Gold chart on the 2-hour timeframe, we can see that after reaching the $3,915 demand zone, price reacted strongly and began to rise, filling the liquidity gap created by last night’s drop. Gold is currently trading around $3,973, and if it fails to hold above $4,015, we could see another strong bearish move toward lower levels below $3,900. The next short-term bearish targets are $3,955, $3,947, $3,915, and $3,899. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OPOFINANCE:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
48
Gold Forming Bearish Three Drives Pattern Below Channel MidlineHi team! Gold has formed a double top near the upper boundary of a long-term ascending channel, signaling potential exhaustion of the bullish momentum. After breaking below the local support and retesting it, price created a lower high, which confirms a short-term bearish structure. Currently, the market is consolidating below the midline of the new channel. The recent sequence of moves is forming a potential Three Drives pattern, where Drive 1 and Drive 2 are already complete, and a possible Drive 3 could be developing. If price fails to reclaim the main support zone around $4,000–$4,050, we can expect a continuation to the downside toward: $3,815 – the first key support level and measured target for Drive 3. $3,604 – the next major support zone and lower boundary of the broader channel. As long as price remains below the recent swing highs, the bearish scenario remains valid. A clear break above the midline of the channel would invalidate this setup and suggest a potential reversal. Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by melikatrader94
13
LiamTrading – Gold compressed at the triangle peak; watch for...LiamTrading – Gold compressed at the triangle peak; watch for a break at 4020 (H2) After a week of accumulation, the price is pressing into the triangle peak between the descending trendline (from late October) and the ascending trendline (from 11/5). The advantage will lean towards an increase if 4020 is broken and sustained. Technical Analysis (priority H2, Volume Profile – Trendline – S/R – Fibonacci) Trendline & Structure The descending trendline is blocking the recovery waves; the ascending trendline supports the adjustment waves. Closing the H2 candle above the confluence zone ~4020 will confirm a clear upward movement. Support / Resistance (S/R) Main support: 3970–3972 (swing low & “Key level Support”). Decision zone: 4014–4020 (break–retest zone). Resistance: 4045 (medium-term), 4050 (supply for scalp orders), upper band 4105–4110. Volume Profile (recent session / composite) POC magnet: 4015–4017 → likely to have profit-taking/fluctuations; staying above POC turns this area into a launchpad. LVN: around 4020 → beautiful break-and-go; failing to hold often pulls back to 4015/4010. Fibonacci Extension (H2 swing) 1.618 coincides with 4045–4050 → first upward target. 2.272/2.618 creates a liquidity zone 4095–4110 → area may weaken/strong profit-taking. Today's Trading Scenarios Scenario 1 – Buy on breakout Entry: 4020–4022 after closing above trendline + retest holding 4018–4020 SL: 4014 TP: 4045 → 4070 → 4100–4110 Management: Take partial profit at 4045; move SL to break-even when reaching +1R. Staying above 4020 turns POC 4015–4017 into support. Scenario 1b – Buy on pullback (before breakout, cautious volume) Entry: 3998–4002 (“400x”) when there is an upward reaction at the ascending trendline SL: 3988 TP: 4017 → 4045 Note: H2 closes below 3988 → cancel the order. Scenario 2 – Sell scalp at resistance Entry: 4048–4052 (confluence of Fibo 1.618 + supply zone) SL: 4056 TP: 4040 → 4030 → 4020 Note: This is counter-trend. Ignore if H2 closes strongly above 4052. Summary The upward bias is confirmed when breaking–holding 4020, opening targets 4045 → 4070 → 4100+. Before that signal, trade within the range respecting POC 4015–4017 and ceiling 4045/4050. Risk per order 0.5–1%, move SL to BE when reaching +1R.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LiamTradingFX
XAU/USD (Gold) chart Pattern..XAU/USD (Gold) chart carefully 👇 🧭 Timeframe: Im using 1-hour (1H) chart. 📊 Current Setup: I have a descending triangle or symmetrical triangle pattern forming. Price is around $4,000–$4,005. The support trendline (bottom) has been tested multiple times, showing potential weakness. Ichimoku Cloud is flat and price is below the mid-zone — a slightly bearish bias. 📉 Breakout Direction: The chart shows blue arrows pointing downward, meaning a bearish breakout is expected. 🎯 Target Levels (based on my chart’s marking): 1. First Target Point: around $3,975 – $3,980 (Short-term target after triangle breakdown.) 2. Second Target Point: around $3,920 – $3,925 (Extended bearish target if momentum continues.) ⚠ Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: $4,020 – $4,030 Break Zone (confirmation of sell): below $3,995 candle close (1H). Support/Buy Zone: $3,920 – $3,925 --- Summary: Action Target Comment Sell below $3,995 🎯 $3,975 First take-profit Hold/sell continuation 🎯 $3,920 Final target zone Stop loss 🔺 $4,030 Above upper trendline
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by RSI_Trading_point
1