#XAUUSD(GOLD):We are still bearish, this week is decider! Gold experienced a decline during today’s Asian session before recovering sharply to the 4030 area. Currently, the price is consolidating within a narrow range between 4010 and 4030. This behaviour suggests a period of accumulation, where buyers and sellers are unable to establish a clear directional advantage. Given the anticipated volatility in the coming week, particularly with macroeconomic data releases, traders should exercise caution and implement disciplined risk management strategies.
The initial decline in the Asian session may have been driven by short-term profit-taking and liquidity searches by major market participants. However, the swift recovery to 4030 indicates strong buying interest at lower levels, suggesting that gold remains in a bullish trend on larger timeframes. This range-bound movement between 4010 and 4030 is forming a temporary consolidation zone.
A detailed examination of the 1-hour chart reveals multiple touchpoints within this range, indicating strong short-term support at 4010 and resistance near 4030. Candlestick patterns suggest indecision, with several doji and spinning-top formations, further confirming the likelihood of price manipulation and liquidity grabs throughout the week.
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Trade ideas
Another Volatile Day for Gold: Is the Next Leg Down Loading?Yesterday was just another volatile session for Gold...
After testing the waters above $4,000, price reversed sharply during the New York session, dropping to around $3,930.
A brief consolidation followed, and by the time of writing, Gold already rebounded toward $3,970, reclaiming the $3,960 support area.
Despite this recovery, the overall structure remains bearish — as long as price fails to stabilize above $4,000, sellers maintain control.
📉 Outlook:
I continue to expect another leg down, with $3,915 as my next focus, followed by the recent low around $3,885.
Excellent Profits on yesterday’s session Selling sequenceAs discussed throughout my yesterday’s commentary: “My position: I have Sold Bought Gold throughout yesterday's session from #3,998.80 especially towards #4,008.80 (aggressive Scalps) and called it for the session. Gold delivered significant Intra-day losses on Asian session and turned timefrimes to Bearish territory. Today is Intra-day Sell session and will continue Selling Gold from my key entry points.”
My position: I have made excellent returns on Selling Gold throughout yesterday’s session taken from #3,995.80 local Top’s. Tide has turned to Sellers reigns and Intra-day sentiment remains turned in Sellers favor. Sequence will stay the same as long as DX is Trading on upside numbers.
GOLD How to Trade the XAUUSD Range Breakout StrategyLet's cut straight to the chase on Gold (XAU/USD). Right now, the chart isn't giving us much to work with. We are locked solid in a textbook range-bound environment. 😒
If you compare this choppy, sideways action to the clear trends we've seen previously, the difference is stark. There is simply no directional conviction in the market at the moment; we're witnessing classic accumulation/distribution—or just plain indecision.
My focus is simple: Patience is your edge right now. I'm not interested in getting chopped up inside this consolidation zone. We are waiting for a concise, decisive move—a clean breakout—either above the high or below the low of this current range.. and a retest of the range. ⬆️⬇️
Bullish Scenario: A breakout above, followed by a successful re-test and fail. That's our green light for a long position, signaling momentum has shifted North. 🚀
Bearish Scenario: A breakdown and re-test of the range. That's the cue for a short opportunity, confirming bearish momentum. 📉
The breakout and re-test confirmation will be key. Until then, I'll stand aside and preserve capital. No setup, no trade. 🔥
XAUUSD H4 | Bearish Reaction off Key ResistanceXAUUSD is consolidating, and rising towards the top of the consolidation area.
Our sell entry is an overlap resistance level at 4,055, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
The stop loss is placed slightly above the multi-swing high resistance level, at 4,163, while the take profit is a swing low support level at 3,900.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com/uk ):
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Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com/eu ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Selling pressure below 4000, signs of a breakout⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold (XAU/USD) rises above $3,950 during Wednesday’s Asian session as persistent US government shutdown concerns and geopolitical tensions fuel safe-haven demand. The stalemate between Democrats and Republicans has stretched into a new month, putting the US on track for its longest-ever shutdown.
However, gains may be capped as traders take profits amid a stronger US Dollar (USD) and waning expectations for additional Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts this year. A firmer dollar typically makes gold costlier for overseas buyers, limiting its appeal.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold price under selling pressure below 4000, downtrend after breaking trendline
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: 4040 - 4042 SL 4047
TP1: $4030
TP2: $4015
TP3: $4000
🔥BUY GOLD zone: 3888 - 3886 SL 3881
TP1: $3900
TP2: $3915
TP3: $3930
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable sell order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
Gold Rebuilds Structure Above $3940, Eyeing $4030 Liquidity Pool
🔍 Market Context
Gold is attempting to regain bullish momentum as safe-haven demand remains supported by rising geopolitical tensions and uncertainty around the upcoming US ADP employment data.
The market continues to oscillate between risk aversion and rate expectations — with the Fed’s hawkish tone keeping the Dollar capped but steady.
At the same time, capital flow rotation from equities into defensive assets is quietly supporting the metal’s structural recovery, with gold holding above key liquidity levels despite intraday volatility.
📊 Technical Analysis (H1–H4)
After forming a double-bottom structure near $3,938, XAU/USD has reclaimed the 38.2% retracement zone (3,974–3,975) from its previous bearish leg.
This area now acts as a pivot zone, separating short-term bullish continuation from potential retracement.
The chart reveals a classic liquidity cycle shift:
Phase 1: Sweep of downside liquidity below 3,930, marking an internal structural low.
Phase 2: Expansion leg reclaiming short-term FVGs, signaling a potential smart money accumulation phase.
Phase 3: Repricing toward upper liquidity targets aligned with Fibonacci extensions.
Key Technical Zones:
• 💎 Liquidity Base: 3,938 – 3,950 (recent demand re-entry area)
• 🎯 Rejection Zone 1: 3,974 – 3,999 (previous inefficiency block)
• ⚙️ Target Zone: 4,033 – 4,045 (1.272–1.618 Fibo extensions, liquidity pool)
• ⚠️ Invalidation: Break below 3,920 would shift structure back to distribution.
🎯 MMFLOW Scenario
If gold sustains above the 3,950 support cluster, buyers are likely to extend the retracement toward 3,999–4,033 where resting liquidity sits.
A clean rejection from 4,000 could trigger an intraday pullback — but as long as price holds above the 3,938 OB base, the bullish recovery structure remains intact.
The short-term narrative favors controlled accumulation, suggesting that smart money is building positions into liquidity zones before the next impulsive move.
⚜️ MMFLOW Insight:
“Liquidity isn’t random — it’s engineered. Every move leaves a footprint, and gold is tracing its next one above $3,950.”
XAUUSD UPDATEhi everyone
For this upward movement, the first resistance is at the 3494 level. A breakout at this level would also coincide with a breakout of the trendline. If both the trendline and resistance are broken, the price is likely to move toward the next resistance at 4984. The target price could reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
I’m also interested in entering a long position around the 3862 area. However, if the support at 3884 breaks, I will reconsider the setup
good luck all
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading my skills also for my trade journal**
Thanks a lot for your support
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT
Quick KOG Report this week.
Firstly, we would say it’s the first trading day of the new month so maybe an idea to let the market find it’s feet before jumping in. We’re only going to share the potential path this week and the red box target levels on the breaks. We’ll also stick with some of the red boxes from last week with the new levels to watch out for.
RED BOXES:
Break above 4010 for 4016, 4030, 4044 and 4050 in extension of the move
Break below 4001 for 3995, 3986, 3971 and 3959 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
XAU/USD Analysis — Awaiting Breakout Confirmation for Bull Entry🏆 XAU/USD GOLD vs U.S. DOLLAR 🏆
📊 Swing/Day Trade Opportunity Guide
🎯 THE THIEF STRATEGY SETUP
Market: Precious Metals | Pair: XAU/USD (Spot Gold)
Timeframe: Multi-Timeframe Confirmation
Strategy Type: Breakout + Dynamic Support/Resistance
💡 BULLISH CASE CONFIRMED ✅
The bulls are on patrol! 🚨 Multiple confluences suggest an upside move:
✨ LSMA (Least Squares Moving Average) acting as dynamic support with multiple touch confirmations — classic reversal signal for swing traders. The metal is respecting this lower boundary like a fortress wall.
⚠️ Breakout Confirmation Required: Watch for a decisive close above 4,060.00 — this level marks a critical moving average resistance zone. Once breached, this becomes our green light for layered entries.
💰 ENTRY STRATEGY: "THE LAYERING THIEF METHOD" 💎
Instead of FOMO-ing into one position, we deploy the layered entry approach — multiple limit orders like a professional accumulator:
📍 Buy Limit Layers (After Breakout Confirmation):
Layer 1️⃣: 3,920.00 ← Initial dip catch
Layer 2️⃣: 3,960.00 ← Continuation entry
Layer 3️⃣: 4,000.00 ← Mid-zone accumulation
Layer 4️⃣: 4,040.00 ← Final confirmation level
⚡ Pro Tip: Scale these layers based on your account size and risk tolerance. You can add more layers every $20-$40 intervals.
🔔 CRITICAL:
✋ Wait for breakout confirmation above 4,060.00 before placing any buy orders. Premature entries = Stolen profits going nowhere! ❌
🛑 STOP LOSS (Risk Management)
Thief SL Level: 3,880.00 🎯
This is where the heist ends if the plan fails. Close below this support = Exit the building! 🚪
⚠️ Disclaimer Note: This stop loss is suggested as a reference point. Your SL placement depends on your risk appetite, account size, and trading personality. We're not financial advisors — only fellow traders sharing our playbook! Trade at your own risk. 💪
🎪 PROFIT TARGET: "THE POLICE BARRICADE" 🚔
Target Zone: 4,360.00 🏁
Why this level? Multiple reasons converge here:
📈 Strong historical resistance acting as a "police barricade"
🔴 Overbought conditions signal potential pullback territory
⚠️ Trap zone detected — this is where smart money takes profits!
Strategy: Scale out your positions as price approaches this zone. Don't get greedy and lose the win!
⚠️ Disclaimer Note: This profit target is OUR suggested zone, but YOU decide when to take profits. The choice is yours — stack those wins or hold for more. No financial advice here, just trading wisdom shared among Thief OG's! 🎩
🔗 CORRELATED PAIRS TO MONITOR 📡
Watch these related instruments for confluence signals:
💵 USD Index ( TVC:DXY ) — Inverse relationship with gold. If DXY weakens → XAU/USD strengthens. Monitor for divergence opportunities.
🏦 SPX500 ( CAPITALCOM:US500 ) — Risk sentiment indicator. Rising stocks = potential gold weakness. Use as confirmation filter.
FX:EURUSD — EUR strength = potential gold support. Cross-market divergences often precede major moves.
FX:GBPUSD — Pound weakness often correlates with gold rallies. Track for multi-timeframe alignment.
TVC:US10Y (10-Year Treasury Yield) — Inverse correlation. Rising yields = headwind for gold. Monitor daily for macro context.
📋 QUICK CHECKLIST ✅
Confirm LSMA support holds
Wait for 4,060.00 breakout confirmation
Place layered buy limits at 3,920/3,960/4,000/4,040
Set stop loss at 3,880.00
Scale profits into 4,360.00 resistance zone
Monitor correlated pairs for confluence
Respect risk management — never exceed 2% per trade
🎬 THE BOTTOM LINE 🎬
Gold is setting up for a potential swing trade move. The LSMA support is holding, and a breakout above 4,060.00 could trigger a run toward 4,360.00. Use the layering strategy to build positions methodically, protect capital with your chosen stop loss, and exit into resistance zones.
This is a confluence-based breakout play — not a guarantee, just probability on our side. 🎲
✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!
#XAU/USD #GoldTrading #TradingStrategy #SwingTrade #DayTrading #ForexAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #ThiefStrategy #LSMA #BreakoutTrading #RiskManagement #TradingCommunity #MarketAnalysis #Commodities #MetalsMarket
XAUUSD GOLDGold price on the 4H chart is forming a bullish breakout pattern from a descending wedge, trading near the 3,997 zone. A confirmed breakout above the trendline could trigger upward momentum toward the 4,120–4,160 target area, while holding above the 3,960 support will keep the bullish outlook valid.
"Thank you for your support! If you found this idea valuable or learned something new, please consider liking and leaving a comment. I’d really appreciate hearing your feedback and thoughts."
Report 4/11/25My take
By Thursday, Nov 6, Tesla shareholders are widely expected to approve a record incentive plan for Elon Musk that hard-wires governance around a “physical-AI” vision (robotaxis + humanoid robots) that still contributes almost nothing to current cash flow. Street frameworks now ascribe the majority of TSLA’s value to those options (Robotaxi ~45%, Optimus ~19%), with autos/FSD/energy the minority. The market’s message: governance clarity > near-term delivery softness. Around that, Big Tech just drew a bright line between asset-heavy AI (Meta, Alphabet) and asset-lighter cash return (Apple), while cloud scale (Microsoft, AWS) remains the only place AI capex throws off immediate P&L. Macro remains risk-supportive: a fragile U.S.–China truce shaved tail risks; September CPI printed 3.0% y/y; labor demand is eroding slowly rather than breaking; tariffs haven’t been the inflation doomsday nor a manufacturing panacea; and the Fed’s bias is to cushion jobs.
Bottom line for the next 1–4 weeks: constructive equities, a heavy-ish dollar, oil with a floor (China stockpiling), gold supported on dips, and U.S. duration underpinned by the Fed’s growth-risk focus. TSLA trades on path-dependence headlines (vote, autonomy milestones) more than quarterly units.
What happened
Tesla’s governance and the “optionality premium.”
The Nov 6 vote would lift Musk’s potential stake toward ~25% upon hitting extremely ambitious hurdles (including ~$8.5T market value within ~10 years). Bulls argue Musk’s speed, data advantage, and “touching the physical world” moat justify paying now for AI scale later; bears see a long monetization runway with FSD still supervised and Robotaxi “in park.” Either way, approval reduces overhangs (control/retention), which usually compresses risk premia short term even if fundamentals haven’t changed.
AI spending bifurcation.
Meta’s rising capex/depreciation turned it into a show-me stock; Alphabet is spending even more but can rent out capacity via Cloud; Apple stays asset-light and keeps the cash-return flywheel spinning. Microsoft and AWS are the current “AI rainmakers,” monetizing AI demand through cloud—and the OpenAI–Amazon multiyear compute pact reinforces AWS’s backlog and narrative.
Banks leaning into returns.
Bank of America’s investor day (Wed, Nov 5) will likely pivot rhetoric from “responsible growth” to “more growth” with a higher ROTCE target (16–18%). In a soft-landing tape with Fed cuts still in play, that’s a tailwind for large-cap financials and the Dow, provided investors buy the bridge from talk to delivery.
Macro backdrop.
A partial U.S.–China detente (tariffs eased at the margin, rare-earth curbs delayed, soybean purchases back) removed worst-case escalation—for now. CPI at 3.0% and the Fed’s emphasis on employment risks (Gov. Cook) keep cuts live. Tariff pass-through has been muted (firms eating a chunk via margins and rerouting), reducing the odds of a policy-error inflation spike. China’s aggressive crude stockpiling plus Russia-flow workarounds put a floor under oil—limiting downside even in oversupplied quarters.
Cross-asset impact
S&P 500 (SPX).
Bias remains upward with a “breadth-with-quality” tilt. Cloud/platform names with direct AI monetization (and discipline on capex) should out-earn pure spenders; financials benefit if BofA’s playbook catalyzes a sector rerate; cyclicals get a small boost from trade calm. Watch: any hawkish inflection from the Fed or a re-flare in tariffs would hit multiples first.
Dow Jones (DJI).
Constructive. Banks + industrials + energy benefit from (i) ROTCE rhetoric, (ii) tariff de-escalation optics, (iii) a firmer crude floor. Downside risk: fresh U.S.–Canada tariff noise would nick North American industrials/autos sentiment.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index).
Leaning softer into year-end as the Fed prioritizes labor risks and trade frictions cool. The path isn’t linear—enforcement shocks (Russia energy, export bans) can create tactical USD squeezes—but base case is a 97–100 range with a drift lower on any dovish Fed signaling.
USDJPY.
Still elevated on policy divergence and higher oil, with 151–155 the volatility zone. A softer broad USD from trade calm + Fed cuts could cap upside, but without a BOJ policy shift or stealth action, dips are shallow. Event risk: rapid yen spikes if authorities lean harder near 153–155.
XAUUSD (Gold).
Supported on dips. Central-bank demand + sanctions/geopolitical hedging offset drag from positive real yields. Improved risk mood can stall upside tactically; structurally the bid persists. Expect a choppy but rising channel if DXY eases and policy uncertainty (tariffs, elections, sanctions) lingers.
Crude (Brent).
Range with a floor. China’s stockpiling and episodic sanctions headlines keep $63–$70 plausible near term; sustained upside requires tougher enforcement that truly crimps Russian flows/financing. Macro risk-on + trade de-escalation argue against a collapse toward low-$50s unless China slows buying.
Tesla: how to think about risk/reward into and after the vote
Into Nov 6: Approval removes a governance overhang; shares tend to trade with an “execution optionality” premium when control/continuity is secured.
Near term (0–6 months): Fundamentals remain EV-demand sensitive (post-credit pull-forward) and FSD is still supervised; the stock trades on catalysts—pilot Robotaxi progress, Optimus milestones, AI data-center scaling, and regulatory signposts.
Medium term (6–24 months): Multiple durability depends on converting narrative power into cash-flow line-items: real autonomy miles under permissive regimes, unit economics for robots, and take-rates that move revenue/GM. Without that, the equity re-anchors to autos/energy cash generation.
Strategy notes & positioning ideas
Equities: Favor quality cloud/platforms with visible AI monetization; barbell with selective financials (ROTCE momentum) and international value where USD softness helps.
Rates/FX: Modest long in belly duration still works while the Fed leans growth-risk; fade USD strength on enforcement headlines; respect yen intervention risk above ~153.
Commodities: Brent call spreads over puts while China is stockpiling; keep strategic gold as policy/geopolitical hedge.
TSLA: Treat post-vote strength as path-dependent: add only against concrete autonomy/robot milestones, reduce on governance pass-through without operating proof.
Gold on Intra-day Selling pressureTechnical analysis: Sellers still haven’t missed their estimate as Gold aggressively invalidated #4,000.80 benchmark on multiple occasions (posing as an hard Support zone), due geo-political tensions as a strong catalyst which is putting DX in High demand on Weekly interval. Environment and general market sentiment remains however Gold friendly (about to engage relief rally) due to the Supply-Demand mechanism. DX and Gold are still diagonally correlated, their charts are again on Positive-Negative match which is elemental sign of correlation. This suggests that DX tested its multi-Month Resistance zone, and Gold is under mild Selling pressure. This doesn't affect my local Low’s Buying strategy even though Gold is isolated within Hourly 4 chart healthy Descending Channel that by my estimations will sustain according to all accounts and there are no signs of a rebound yet (it is a reversal pattern most of the times). Weekly chart was Trading near strong Support belt which was aggressively corrected Intra-day so I will not make a strategy shift and will trust my Medium to Long-term Bull model as long as Buying spree on Gold lasts. I have to be excessively careful with today's session as it represents crossroads for the Short-term.
My position: I have Sold Bought Gold throughout yesterday's session from #3,998.80 especially towards #4,008.80 (aggressive Scalps) and called it for the session. Gold delivered significant Intra-day losses on Asian session and turned timefrimes to Bearish territory. Today is Intra-day Sell session and will continue Selling Gold from my key entry points.
XAUUSD H4 | Bearish Drop OffGold (XAU/USD) has rejected off the sell entry, which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to the downside.
Sell entry is at 4,017.82, whic his a pullback resistance that lines up witht he 23.6% Fibonacci retracemnt.
Stop loss is at 4,135.96, whic is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 3,789.94, which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
XAUUSD Bear Cycle has started and this is why according to VIX.Gold (XAUUSD) closed 2 straight red weeks, which last did on June 23. Despite this pull-back, it remains within a Channel Up since the October 31 2022 Low, which was essentially when the Bear Cycle ended and the new Bull Cycle (Channel Up) started.
The previous Bull Cycle topped around 4.5 months after the Volatility Index (VIX) shown in blue, peaked during the March 2020 COVID flash crash.
We are now on a similar situation as VIX topped on the week of March 31 2025 during the Trade War and has since started to decline aggressively. Gold's current top was 6.5 months after VIX's top. Even the 1W RSI sequences between the two Bull Cycles are similar, further raising the degree of their high symmetry.
According to this correlation, Gold may has already formed its Bull Cycle Top 3 weeks ago and could be starting a new +2 year Bear Cycle.
As far as a Target and Bottom is concerned, the previous Bear Cycle almost hit its 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level three times throughout the Cycle, until it broke below it marginally for its September - October 2022 bottom.
As a result, we are looking for the 0.382 Fib yet again as our focal point which is currently around $3000.
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Gold Retracement ideaXAUUSD after a huge 3500 B/O, is it finally time for a pull back? Short positions can be taken targeting lower fib levels with proper risk management. Break of ATH invalidates any further pull backs. This is only market speculation and should not be considered as financial advise
Gold is sideways and waiting for a breakout⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold (XAU/USD) slips toward $4,000 in early Asian trading on Tuesday as investors scale back expectations for additional Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. Markets now await comments from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman later in the day.
Last week, the Fed delivered its second rate cut of the year, lowering the benchmark range to 3.75%–4.00%. However, Chair Jerome Powell’s remark that another cut is “not a foregone conclusion” reinforced a hawkish tone, pressuring the non-yielding metal.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold price is still maintaining the accumulation price range, not clearly determining a certain trend. Waiting for a breakout.
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: 4089 - 4091 SL 4096
TP1: $4076
TP2: $4050
TP3: $4030
🔥BUY GOLD zone: 3922 - 3920 SL 3915
TP1: $3940
TP2: $3950
TP3: $3965
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable sell order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
Gold Price Breakout Above Trendline Targets 3980 Gold (XAU/USD) is showing bullish momentum, breaking above the trendline resistance around 4000. Price is currently near 4008, with potential pullback targets around 3980 and 3965 if retracement occurs. Trend remains positive above the rising trendline.
GOLD XAUUSD 4HR CHARTBUYERS ARE ON CAUTION MODE ,the rejection at 4033-4043 was watched critically for possible break and close ,but buyers failed after many attempt on the descending trendline line .the close of 4th saw more correction following a new found hope for dollar index after the index break and close of daily supply roof, now dollar index approaching 100 $ mark.
the Sydney /Asian gold buyers seen to be on cautious mode on the current demand floor 3921-3933 level, should they try to buy it will still end in sell hopefully around any possible retest zone .
technical support based on strategy will be 3855-3865 zone
technical support zone based on strategy will be 3753.67-3745 zone .
NOTE;TRADING IS 100% PROBABILITY,ANY KEY LEVEL CAN FAIL.
MANAGE YOUR RISK.
FUNDAMENTAL ON GOLD .
Gold's reclassification as a Basel III Tier 1 asset marks a significant upgrade in how regulators and banks view gold within global financial systems.
Why Gold is Reclassified as Basel III Tier 1
Tier 1 Status Definition: Under Basel III, Tier 1 assets are the highest quality capital assets that banks can use to meet their core capital requirements. These assets carry a 0% risk weight, reflecting their safety, liquidity, and reliability as capital.
Gold’s Historical Status: Gold has already been recognized as a Tier 1 asset for capital adequacy since the Basel I Accords in 1988, due to its status as a safe store of value with very low default risk.
New Recognition (2025): Starting July 1, 2025, physical gold held by banks can be counted at 100% of its market value in regulatory capital calculations, instead of being subject to significant haircuts or lower classifications (e.g., previously it was treated as a Tier 3 asset with a 50% deduction).
High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) Label: This reclassification means gold is now officially recognized as a High-Quality Liquid Asset under Basel III, allowing it to qualify as part of banks’ liquidity coverage ratios (LCR), an important step for liquidity and capital management.
Regulatory Shift: This reflects changing perceptions that gold is not just a commodity but a true monetary asset. It is increasingly accepted as a reliable reserve asset by central banks and financial institutions worldwide.
Central Bank Adoption: This move aligns with continued aggressive gold buying by central banks, recognizing gold’s importance for capital reserves, systemic stability, and as an inflation hedge.
Significance
Banks can fully count gold toward core capital reserves.
Reduces capital burden, improving bank balance sheets and financial resilience.
Endorses gold as a strategic, monetary asset, not just a commodity investment.
Encourages institutional demand for physical gold and gold-related financial products.
Summary
Gold was reclassified as a Basel III Tier 1 asset starting July 1, 2025, reflecting its highest quality capital standing with 0% risk weighting and full market value recognition. This elevates gold’s status to a High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) for regulatory purposes, facilitating banks’ liquidity coverage and capital adequacy. The change signals a major regulatory and market shift, acknowledging gold as a core reserve and strategic financial asset in modern banking systems.
#GOLD #XAUUSD






















