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GOLD trade ideas

XAUUSD Explodes: Strong Uptrend and Breakout OpportunityCurrently, XAUUSD is moving within a clear rising channel on the 2-hour chart. The bullish momentum of gold remains very strong, and we can see that the price is continuously breaking higher highs, pushing the trend upwards. However, it is important to note that the market is awaiting important news such as CPI and PPI from the US tonight and tomorrow. These news releases could impact the USD, which in turn affects the price of gold. A CPI higher than expected could put pressure on gold, as the Fed may maintain a high interest rate policy, while weak PPI could help gold continue its upward trend. However, technical analysis shows that the current bullish trend of gold is still showing no signs of weakening. There is strong support at the 3,620 level , confirmed by EMA 34 and EMA 89, indicating that the bullish trend remains stable. The nearest resistance zone is between 3,675 and 3,700 , where the price has faced difficulties breaking through before. If the price breaks through this resistance level , we can expect a strong breakout towards higher levels.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Rocky_trade_
13
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – 12/09/2025 1. Momentum • D1: Momentum is approaching the oversold zone. We should wait for a bullish reversal signal here to confirm a new upward move. • H4: Momentum is currently in the overbought zone and preparing to reverse. This suggests price may continue sideways or move into a corrective decline. • H1: Momentum is also in the overbought zone and about to reverse → the current upward move is weakening, and a short-term corrective pullback is likely. 2. Wave Structure • D1: The market is forming a 5-wave black structure. The current D1 momentum decline is nearly complete and may reach the oversold zone within 1–2 days, signaling that wave iv (black) is close to completion. • H4: Price is moving sideways. Since H4 momentum is preparing to turn down from overbought, wave iv (black) may still be in progress. We need to wait until H4 momentum moves into the oversold zone and reverses up to better evaluate the completion of wave iv. • H1: Price has been consolidating within a high liquidity zone (Volume Profile). The sideways and time-consuming behavior fits the nature of wave iv. o A reliable confirmation of wave iv completion would be a breakout and daily close above 3657. o If price fails to break this level and declines further, wave iv may develop into a triangle or complex corrective pattern. o With both H1 and H4 momentum preparing to turn down, the scenario of wave iv continuing is more likely for now. 3. Trading Plan • Scenario 1: If price breaks and closes above 3657, wait for a retest of this level to look for a Buy Breakout targeting wave v. • Buy Zone 1: o Entry: 3596 – 3594 o SL: 3585 o TP: 3669 • Buy Zone 2: o Entry: 3557 – 3555 o SL: 3547 o TP: 3597
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
GOLD Very Bullish , Can We Buy Again And Get 200 Pips ?Here is My 15 Mins Gold Chart , and here is my opinion , we finally above 3639.00 and we have a 4H Candle closure above it and we have a Perfect Breakout and this give us a very good confirmation ,and also we have a reversal pattern and the price closed above neckline , so we have a good confirmation now to can buy from 3639.00 when the price back to retest it , we need the price to go back and retest it and give us a good bullish price action and then we can enter , we can targeting 100 to 200 pips . if we have a daily closure below this area this mean this idea will not be valid anymore . Reasons To Enter : 1- Perfect Touch For The Area . 2- Clear Bullish Price Action . 3- Bigger T.F Giving Good Bullish P.A . 4- The Price Take The Last High . 5- Perfect 15 Mins Closure . 6- Reversal Pattern .
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by FX_Elite_Club
Price broke below EMA200 on M15 + Shooting Star + MACD CrossPrice below EMA200 on M15 + Shooting Star + MACD bearish cross - Tokyo. Entered this trade a few hours ago during Tokyo session. Price finally broke through the EMA200 on M15 putting us into sell territory. A shooting star had been printed and the MACD produced a bearish cross. As several of you noted, there’s a clean FVG stack below — I placed my TP at the end of that block. SL was set just above the most recent structure high, giving this trade a strong R:R of nearly 1:9. RSI is already oversold, but in strong trending conditions, it can remain that way for a while. Looks like we’re (hopefully lol) printing the closing leg of a clean M-pattern.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Miss_GoldFinger
11
XAU/USD 15/09/2025Bias Map HTF Bias: Bullish ⬆️ (85% probability) Key Liquidity Zones: Above: The recent high at $3,660 and the subsequent high at $3,675. This is the primary target for further bullish movement. Below: The low at $3,620, which is the immediate support level. A break below this level would invalidate the bullish bias in the short term. The next major liquidity pool is around the $3,600 psychological level. Sniper Entries Entry #1: Buy at $3,638 | SL $3,630 | TP1 $3,655 | TP2 $3,670 | RR 2.12 Entry #2: Buy at $3,630 (retest of previous resistance now support) | SL $3,625 | TP1 $3,645 | TP2 $3,660 | RR 3.0 Execution Notes Session to focus: London/NY overlap. This session typically provides the most volatility and volume for breakouts and trend continuation. Conditions to validate entry: A liquidity sweep below $3,640 followed by a break of structure (BoS) on the M1/M5 charts, signaling a move back up. Confirmation of a fair value gap (FVG) fill in the M15/M1 timeframes around the $3,638 price level. The $3,630 entry is a high-probability setup based on a retest of the previous M15 resistance level, which is now acting as support. A clean reaction here would be a strong signal. Risk management note: Use a 1% maximum risk per trade with an ATR-based stop loss for adaptive sizing. Keep maximum drawdown (DD) below 5%. 📈
FPMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by StonkTrade_Wave
when human error causes institutional chaos WHEN THE HOUSE OF CARDS FELL a concise look at history’s largest trading disasters. Intro Markets make fortunes, and erase them. Some of the largest drawdowns in modern financial history weren’t caused by market moves alone, but by human error, hubris, weak controls, or leverage run amok. Below are the most instructive episodes. 1) Nick Leeson — Barings Bank (1995) What was traded: Futures and options on the Nikkei 225 and other Asian equity derivatives (hidden in an error account). Losses: ~£827 million (the final number widely reported; Barings collapsed and was bought by ING). Why it happened: Unauthorized speculative bets, concealed losses in a hidden account, and complete breakdown of segregation between front and back office responsibilities. Lesson for traders: Always enforce separation of duties, log and reconcile trades daily, and respect position-size limits. Small hidden losses compound quickly when someone doubles down to "recover." 2) Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) (1998) What was traded: Highly leveraged fixed-income arbitrage and complex derivatives (relative-value trades across bonds and swaps). Losses: About $4.6 billion in a few months and a near-collapse that required a $3.65 billion private-sector bailout organized under the Federal Reserve’s supervision. Why it happened: Massive leverage, concentrated positions, reliance on models that assumed low tail risk, and liquidity drying up after the 1997–98 crises. Lesson for traders: Models are only as good as their assumptions. Always stress-test for extreme events and never confuse historical volatility for guaranteed stability. 3) Amaranth Advisors — Brian Hunter (2006) What was traded: Natural gas futures and swaps (directional bets on gas prices). Losses: Around $6.6 billion (almost the entire fund). Why it happened: A massive one-way bet in a single commodity market, extreme exposure during a short time window, and insufficient risk checks on position concentrations. Lesson for traders: Diversify exposure, cap concentration per market, and use stop rules — particularly with volatile commodities. 4) Société Générale — Jérôme Kerviel (2008) What was traded: Large, unauthorized equity index and delta-hedging derivatives positions. Losses: €4.9 billion reported by the bank. Why it happened: A junior trader built enormous notional exposure hidden behind falsified trades and offsets; internal controls failed to detect the pattern early. Lesson for traders: Strong surveillance, automated alerts for notional buildup and mismatches between booking and market flows are mandatory. No trader should have the ability to both create and hide offsets. 5) JPMorgan Chase — "The London Whale" (2012) What was traded: Complex credit derivatives (CDS indices and related structured trades) booked by the Chief Investment Office. Losses: Approximately $6 billion (publicly reported as the headline figure). Why it happened: Large, illiquid positions taken under the guise of hedging; risk management misclassification and insufficient oversight of the desk’s activity. Lesson for traders: Question “official” hedges and track mark-to-market transparency. Size matters — large positions in illiquid markets behave unpredictably. 6) UBS — Kweku Adoboli (2011) What was traded: Equity derivatives and ETFs; fraudulent booking to hide true exposures. Losses: About $2.3 billion for UBS. Why it happened: Unauthorized trading far beyond limits, with fictitious trades used to mask losses. Lesson for traders: Controls matter: independent confirmations, reconciliation of booked trades with exchange/clearing records, and strong escalation procedures. 7) Sumitomo Corporation — Yasuo Hamanaka (1990s) What was traded: Copper futures and long-running attempts to corner the copper market. Losses/impact: Reported losses and claims ran into the billions (estimates vary), with major disruption to the LME and legal fallout. Why it happened: Single-commodity domination attempts, manipulation, and weak counterparty surveillance. Lesson for traders: Markets punish attempts to dominate a price. Avoid attempting to influence markets and respect regulatory/ethical boundaries. 8) Archegos Capital Management (2021) What was traded: Highly leveraged equity positions via total return swaps and prime broker financing. Losses: Bank losses linked to Archegos exceeded $10 billion across multiple counterparties. Why it happened: Extreme use of leverage through opaque swap structures, concentrated bets, and inadequate margining/aggregation across prime brokers. Lesson for traders: Leverage can be hidden — counterparties and traders must track true economic exposure. Concentration plus leverage is the most dangerous combination. Common themes across disasters Leverage + Concentration = Catastrophe. Almost every case involved outsized positions funded with borrowed money. Control failures matter more than market moves. Rogue behavior and poor internal controls are repeated patterns. Liquidity risk is underestimated. Markets that look liquid in calm times can evaporate in stress. Model humility. Models help, but they don’t replace common sense or scenario thinking. Actionable rules for retail traders (quick checklist) Limit leverage and set absolute position-size caps. Use stop losses and pre-defined exit rules. Reconcile trades daily with your broker statements. Stress-test your portfolio for extreme but plausible moves. Keep a trading log and review losing trades objectively. outro: memory from history Big losses make for great cautionary tales. Whether you trade FX, futures, or equities, the mechanics are the same: manage size, diversify, and build systems that work for you. put together by : Pako Phutietsile as @currencynerd
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by currencynerd
Quick gold update: things are starting to look a little tired upQuick gold update: things are starting to look a little tired up here. The daily RSI is beginning to roll over, which raises the question—if you're already long, where do you place your stop when nearby support levels are miles away? Personally, I drop down to a shorter time frame like the 4-hour chart and look for what’s consistently held. Since late August, the red baseline on the Ichimoku cloud has done a solid job of supporting the uptrend. If you're after a tighter stop, placing it just below that baseline—around 3,610—could be a reasonable option. Want to give it more breathing room? Then the lower edge of the cloud might be your spot. Either way, it’s time to think about locking in profits. On the monthly chart, our long-term target for gold still sits around 3,850–3,870, where several upside projections and Fibonacci extensions converge. That’s a chunky resistance zone. Also worth noting: the monthly RSI is now at 92. That’s pretty stretched. So if you haven’t already, consider tightening those stops. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by The_STA
XAUUSD (Gold) Bearish Setup On 30m ... XAUUSD (Gold) Bearish Setup Gold has reached a strong supply zone (3632 – 3635) where sellers are expected to take control. Price action suggests rejection from this zone, opening downside targets. 🔻 Entry Zone: 3632 – 3635 (Sell Zone) 🎯 Target 1 / First Support: 3580 – initial bearish objective 🎯 Target 2 / Second Support: 3514 – extended bearish target 🛑 Stop Loss: Above 3645 (to protect against false breakout) 📊 Analysis: This zone has acted as a major resistance in recent sessions. A failure to break higher confirms bearish momentum. If sellers hold below 3635, a strong push toward 3580 is expected, with extended weakness aiming for 3514. ⚖️ Risk–Reward Ratio: Attractive – defined entry zone with clear two-step targets makes this a high-probability setup for disciplined traders. --- 🚨 Sellers dominate below 3635. Patience at the entry zone can deliver consistent profits as price moves toward both target levels.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FX_AGENCY
CURRENT CONTEXT🔭 CURRENT CONTEXT - Main trend: Strong uptrend, maintaining Higher High – Higher Low structure on H1 & M15. - Current price: 3650, has broken above VAH and the previous high at 3580, now showing signs of consolidation at the top area. VOLUME PROFILE: Key zones to watch: 🔺 New short-term resistance: 3652–3660 🟧 Nearest POC support: 3550–3535 🟩 Medium-term Demand Zone H4: 3480–3485 🎯 4 GOLD TRADING SCENARIOS (H1 - M15) 🟩 Scenario 1 – BUY pullback at POC support 3550–3535 🔹 Conditions: Price retests POC 3550–3535 Bullish Pin Bar / Engulfing candle forms on M15 Volume shows bullish support (rising volume at the bottom) 🔸 Reason: This is the nearest volume-balanced POC Previously a breakout zone → may now act as strong support ✅ Entry: BUY around 3540–3550 TP: 3595 / 3620 SL: 3528 R:R ratio: around 1:2 or higher 🟥 Scenario 2 – SELL reaction at 3660–3665 🔹 Conditions: Price retests 3660–3665 Reversal candle pattern on M15 (Bearish Engulfing / Pin Bar) Weak breakout volume, strong wick rejection 🔸 Reason: This is the new short-term top, likely to see profit-taking pressure Overbought in the short term after steep rally ✅ Entry: SELL around 3660 TP: 3600–3585 SL: 3675 R:R ratio: 1:2 🟧 Scenario 3 – BUY breakout if price clears 3665 strongly 🔹 Conditions: H1 or M15 closes above 3665 with increasing volume Breakout + Retest pattern appears 🔸 Reason: Breaking above distribution zone → continue pushing up to form new HH Main uptrend continuation ✅ Entry: BUY after close above 3665, retest 3660 TP: 3690 / 3705 SL: 3652 R:R ratio: 1:1.5 or higher 🟦 Scenario 4 – Deep SELL if POC 3535 and 3515 break 🔹 Conditions: Price breaks below 3535 and 3515 (LVN) with strong volume Retest of 3535 fails to reclaim 🔸 Reason: Losing balance zone + LVN → could trigger a medium-term correction Next target is Demand Zone 3480–3485 ✅ Entry: SELL around 3530 (if retest fails) TP: 3485 SL: 3545 R:R ratio: 1:2 🧷 RISK MANAGEMENT - Trading around 3650+ requires tight SL, avoid FOMO - Only trade with clear setups (Pin Bar / Engulfing / Breakout confirmation) - Prioritize BUY if price stays above 3550–3535 - SELL only if weak volume confirmed or clear reversal patterns
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TraderX_68
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – September 10, 2025🌀 🔹 Momentum • D1 timeframe: Momentum is showing signs of a bearish reversal → the market may enter a corrective decline, possibly lasting through the end of this week. • H4 timeframe: Momentum is turning upward → a short-term recovery could appear today, pushing the indicator into the overbought zone. • H1 timeframe: Momentum is already in the overbought area and turning down → a short-term decline is likely. ________________________________________ 🔹 Wave Structure • D1: Price has reached the projected target of wave iii (black). With D1 momentum reversing downward, wave iv (black) may be forming. Since wave ii (black) was relatively long, there is a possibility that wave iv (black) could unfold more quickly. • H4: Yesterday’s decline may suggest that wave v (purple) has temporarily completed. If this scenario plays out, price could move into a corrective phase toward the wave iv target area. The correction may develop as a Zigzag, Flat, or Triangle. • H1: Price is consolidating within the liquidity zone 3657 – 3631. With H4 momentum hinting at correction, one possible scenario is sideways movement here to complete wave B, followed by a decline into wave C. o If price breaks and closes below 3631 → the liquidity zone at 3595 may act as the next support. o Potential targets for wave C:  3595 (aligned with 23.8% Fibonacci retracement).  Or 3556 – 3528 (aligned with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement). ________________________________________ 🔹 Trade Scenarios (for reference only) • Sell Zone: 3657 – 3659 o SL: 3667 o TP1: 3631 • Buy Zone 1: 3596 – 3594 o SL: 3585 o TP1: 3669 • Buy Zone 2: 3557 – 3555 o SL: 3547 o TP1: 3597 📌 Note: The Sell setup at 3657 should be considered with small position size as it goes against the main trend. If price reaches 3595, this Sell scenario could lose validity.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
Gold Explodes Every Second👋 Hello everyone, let’s dive into OANDA:XAUUSD together! Yesterday, gold continued its shocking rally, hitting 3600 USD for the first time in history, making the precious metal more attractive than ever – jumping over 500 pips in just a few hours. This bullish momentum has been fueled by recent US economic data, especially the latest Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. 📊 The figures show: -Actual: 22K -Forecast: 75K -Previous: 79K This is a strong bullish signal: far fewer jobs were created than expected, showing weakness in the US labor market → USD weakens → gold explodes higher! On the chart, XAUUSD remains steady, currently retracing around 3586 USD. Supports keep forming, suggesting that after this pullback, another leg up is likely. The current environment is acting as a “tailwind” for gold – the strategy remains: Buy on dip with the main trend. 💬 What about you? Where do you think gold will head next? Share your thoughts in the comments!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Kevinn_Nguyen
40
Gold Bulls vs Bears! Who Will Win the $XAUUSD Battle?🏆 "The Golden Layer Cake Strategy" - XAU/USD Bullish Swing Plan 🎯 ✨ Calling all savvy traders! ✨ Ready to layer into a potential Gold breakout? This systematic approach is designed to capitalize on bullish momentum while managing risk through strategic entry layers. Here’s the detailed blueprint: 📜 🔑 Key Details: Asset: XAU/USD (Gold) Bias: Bullish Style: Swing Trading / Position Building Strategy: Multi-Layer Limit Order Entry ⚡ Entry Strategy (The Layering Method): To optimize your average entry price, consider using multiple BUY LIMIT orders at key support levels: Layer 1: 3420.00 Layer 2: 3440.00 Layer 3: 3460.00 Layer 4: 3480.00 You can adjust the number of layers and prices based on your personal risk management and market conditions. 🛑 Stop Loss: A conservative stop loss can be placed below a significant support zone at 3370.00. Disclaimer: Always adjust your stop loss based on your individual risk tolerance, account size, and trading strategy. 🎯 Take Profit: We are targeting a strong resistance zone around 3600.00. A more ambitious target sits at 3650.00 for those who wish to trail their stops. Secure profits on the way up! 📊 Market Context & Rationale: This plan is based on identifying potential value areas on the pullback for a continued bullish move. The layered entry allows us to build a position gracefully without chasing the market. 📊 XAU/USD Real-Time Data Report 🤝 Retail & Institutional Sentiment Retail Traders Long (Bullish): 28% 😊 Short (Bearish): 72% 😟 Institutional Traders Bullish positions increasing, showing confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset. 🏦 😨💸 Fear & Greed Index Mood: Neutral → leaning Greedy Markets expect Fed rate cuts, boosting gold demand. 🌍 Fundamental Score Rating: 7/10 (Positive) Key Drivers: Weakening US Dollar from expected Fed cuts 📉 Geopolitical tensions supporting safe-haven demand ⚠️ Ongoing central bank gold buying 🏦 📈 Macro Score Rating: 6.5/10 (Moderately Bullish) Factors: High probability of US rate cut in September (~85%) 📅 Rising bond yields may cap gains 📈 Global economic uncertainty 🌎 🐂🐻 Overall Market Outlook Bias: Bullish (Long) 🚀 Gold remains in a strong uptrend, supported by fundamentals, macro drivers, and institutional flows. ✨ Summary Gold is bullish 📈 with strong support from fundamentals and macro conditions. Retail traders lean bearish 😟, but institutions and sentiment favor upward momentum. Any dips are seen as buying opportunities 🤑 ⚠️ Risk Warning & Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR). High-impact news events can cause increased volatility—manage your risk accordingly. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Only risk capital you are willing to lose.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by The-Thief
XAU/USD | Gold at Record Highs – Can NFP Stop the Rally?By analyzing the gold chart on the 12-hour timeframe, we can see that the price continued its rally today, reaching $3,578 and printing a new all-time high (ATH)! After hitting this level, gold made a slight pullback to $3,510. Right now, the price has bounced back and is trading around $3,550. So far, there are no clear signs on the higher timeframes that gold is ready to reverse from here. For that, we would need to see stronger bearish moves. The current momentum still supports further upside unless proven otherwise. That’s why it’s better to stay patient and wait for a real break or shift in market structure before looking for attractive trade setups. Also, tomorrow we have the NFP report, which could trigger a drop in gold if the data comes in stronger than expected. Until then, we’ll wait — and if you guys strongly support this post, I’ll share my updated personal analysis a few hours before the release. Stay tuned! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by ArmanShabanTrading
33
Gold Price consolidation Hit all Time levelsGold price recent rally in gold is indeed tied to expectations of Fed rate cuts in September. Added to that, safe-haven demand from geopolitical risks is reinforcing strength. This combination often sustains bullish momentum in gold. ill see projecting a longer-term target around $3,800/oz in the coming months. However, in the near term, the key resistance is 3690. That’s the level to watch for reaction either rejection or breakout. If broken and sustained, the path opens toward 3800 this one Long-term Target You may find more details in the chart. Trade wisely Best of Luck buddies. Ps; Support with like and comments for better analysis.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by MrMartin_11
1
Gold swing shorts Gold has been bullish for quite a while now and a sell idea just presented it self. Firstly, price took out a daily candles high. Then on the 1h, price gave a market structure shift below. Next, price came for a pullback in the premium half of the the range that gave the mss and it tapped into a 30m fair value gap. I got my entry on the 5m fvg after price took out the 30m candle’s high and gave a market structure shift below . Target is the 50% of the daily candle range
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ChiziFx
XAUUSD MARKET OUTLOOK | SEP 10.2025 ☄️ Gold Market Outlook 09/10 (Based on SMC) ☄️ 📊Main Trend 🔤Previously, gold maintained a strong bullish structure with multiple Break of Structures (BOS) to the upside, consistently forming Higher Highs (HHs) and Higher Lows (HLs). 🔤After peaking around 3670, price entered a deeper correction, showing a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH) – the first signal of weakening bullish momentum. 🔤Currently, a minor bullish CHoCH has formed around the 3625–3640 zone, suggesting that buyers are attempting to regain control. 💡 Trade Plan 🔼Scenario 1: Short-term Buy Entry: 3635 – 3640 Reasoning: Price just created a bullish CHoCH with a nearby unmitigated FVG. Confirmation: Look for BOS to the upside on M5–M15 as Smart Money flow confirmation. 🔼Scenario 2: Mid-term Buy Entry: 3620 – 3625 Reasoning: Strong demand + FVG confluence, acting as key short-term support. Confirmation: Bullish reaction (wick rejections / engulfing candle) on lower timeframe. 🔼Scenario 3: Defensive Buy (Liquidity Sweep Zone) Entry: 3600 – 3605 Reasoning: Large FVG + demand zone aligning with a previous BOS. Confirmation: If market executes a liquidity sweep and taps this zone, it provides a high-probability accumulation entry.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by michael_gold
Gold Hovering Near Record Highs, Can Bullish Momentum Hold?Fundamental perspective Gold remains anchored near all-time highs, reflecting a landscape where economic uncertainty and global tensions are shaping investor behavior. Data revisions showing slower job growth in the US fuel expectations of looser monetary conditions, bolstering the appeal of non-yielding assets. Traders are now positioning ahead of key inflation releases, which could offer a clearer signal on the Fed's rate path trajectory. On the geopolitical front, escalating friction in Europe and the Middle East adds an extra layer of support, as market participants seek shelter amid heightened risk. Supply-demand dynamics in bullion markets and shifts in positioning by institutional players suggest that gold's resilience could persist. In the short term, bullion appears poised to test resistance levels near record peaks, while any easing in risk sentiment or hawkish surprises from central banks may trigger intermittent retracements. Technical perspective XAUUSD is testing the 100% Fibonacci Extension and potential resistance at 3680. While the uptrend persists, with prices forming higher swings and holding above the Ichimoku Cloud, a retracement may be possible, following the recent price rally. If XAUUSD breaks the 3680 resistance, the price could gain upward momentum toward the 127.2% Fibonacci Extension at 3820. Conversely, a retracement may prompt a throwback to the bullish fair value gap and support at 3520. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by lixing_gan
Goldman lays out the case for $5,000 gold – here’s how it happenGoldman Sachs has warned that gold prices could surge to $5000/oz if the Trump administration succeeds in undermining the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve. A politicized Fed is seen as likely to cut rates extremely aggressively (Treasury Secretory Scott Bessent and Trump have called for an interest rate of 1.5% and 1.0%, respectively) to stimulate short-term growth, raising the risk of higher inflation. Such a move could drive investors away from traditional safe havens like the U.S. dollar and government bonds. In a report released this week, Goldman noted that if just 1% of the privately held U.S. Treasury market shifted into gold, prices could rise by about 40% from current levels.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
GOLD → As prices continue to rise, so do the risks...FX:XAUUSD continues to rise, setting new highs. New ATH 3659. Focus on current consolidation, as the structure remains bullish... Gold hit a new record high, surpassing $3,650, amid a weakening dollar and growing expectations of aggressive Fed policy easing. However, overbought conditions and profit-taking risks may limit further growth. The USD is at 7-week lows due to fears of stagflation and deteriorating employment data. The probability of a rate cut on September 17 is 89.4% (25 bps), with a chance of 50 bps. Markets are expecting more than two cuts in 2024. Risks for gold: “Sell the fact”: If the NFP revision turns out to be weak (as expected), investors may start to take profits. Technically, gold remains bullish, but a near-term correction is likely due to technical factors and a possible reaction to the data. The long-term trend remains bullish thanks to a weak USD and the Fed's dovish policy. Resistance levels: 3657, 3675, 3700 Support levels: 3636, 3628, 3620 Gold is consolidating. At the moment, the fundamental background is stable, and no news is expected today except for those that are impossible to predict (comments, rumors, etc.). Before further growth, gold may test the support area and the liquidity hidden behind it. Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
21
Gold Holds Steady, $3,700 in FocusOANDA:XAUUSD The price is still holding firm around $3,637/oz after the U.S. inflation report came in softer than expected. Despite a slight pullback, bullish momentum remains strong, and the falling wedge pattern is signaling a potential breakout. From my personal perspective, the $3,700 level will be the key decision point. If it is broken with strong momentum, gold could extend its rally toward $3,725/oz or even higher. However, upcoming U.S. economic data such as PPI and jobless claims should be closely monitored as they may directly influence short-term volatility. This is my outlook shared with the trading community. What do you think? Let’s discuss in the comments!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Kenn_Nguyen
5