Xauusd update short Entry near 3,739 – 3,740 (resistance).
Stop loss around 3,751 – 3,752 (above resistance).
Take profit near 3,700 – 3,710.
→ That gives around 1:3 R:R ratio, which is favorable if bearish momentum kicks in.
GOLDCFD trade ideas
Gold: Buying the Dip? A Plan for the Pullback to the Daily OBAfter breaking out of its local range and establishing a new ATH, Gold has begun a correction and is approaching support in the form of a daily order block .
I will be looking for a long position, with the target of creating another ATH, upon the mitigation of this order block in conjunction with a reversal reaction from one of three Fibonacci retracement levels: the 50%, 61.8%, or 78.6% level .
A break of the 78.6% level by the price will invalidate the long scenarios and, with a high probability, will mean the correction is transitioning to the higher, weekly structure.
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The principles and conditions for forming the manipulation zones I show in this trade idea are detailed in my educational publication, which was chosen by TradingView for the "Editor's Picks" category and received a huge amount of positive feedback from this insightful trading community. To better understand the logic I've used here and the general principles of price movement in most markets from the perspective of institutional capital, I highly recommend checking out this guide if you haven't already. 👇
P.S. This is not a prediction of the exact price direction. It is a description of high-probability setups that become valid only if specific conditions are met when the price reaches the marked POI. If the conditions are not met, the setups are invalid. No setup has a 100% success rate, so if you decide to use this trade idea, always apply a stop-loss and proper risk management. Trade smart.
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GOLD – Record High as Rate-Cut Bets StrengthenGOLD – Overview
Gold surged to a new all-time high at 3,770 on Tuesday, fueled by expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran argued that current rates are too high and called for steeper cuts to protect the labor market from unnecessary damage.
Traders now turn their attention to Friday’s U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which could strengthen the case for additional monetary easing and keep gold well supported.
Technical Analysis
Gold maintains strong bullish momentum while trading above the 3,766 pivot zone.
Bullish Scenario:
As long as price holds above 3,766 – 3,749, upside targets remain 3,782 → 3,800 → 3,812.
A sustained 1H close above 3,782 would reinforce momentum toward the psychological 3,800 level and potentially higher.
Bearish/Correction Scenario:
A dip toward 3,749 is possible if price stabilizes below 3,766.
A confirmed 1H close below 3,739 would signal deeper correction potential toward 3,712.
Key Levels
Pivot: 3,766
Resistance: 3,782 – 3,800 – 3,812
Support: 3,749 – 3,739 – 3,712
Gold Ascending Triangle Breakout - Targets $3,800+This chart is not only for trading, it’s also for educational purposes and shows a long-term trade setup. You can see how the triangle pattern works here.
On the monthly time frame chart shows a clear bullish structure: a rising lower-trendline (series of higher lows), a flat horizontal resistance across the highs (an ascending-triangle shape) and a breakout candle that closes above that horizontal resistance. That is a bullish monthly breakout => the path of least resistance is upward while the breakout holds. (Market context: gold was hitting fresh lifetime highs around 22 Sep 2025 as Fed easing hopes and safe-haven flows supported the move.
Price structure & pattern (what the chart is telling you)
Pattern: the formation is an ascending triangle — horizontal (flat) highs vs. rising lows. This pattern is bullish because buyers progressively step in at higher prices against a persistent overhead supply line. The measured-move technique for triangles (height of the pattern added to the breakout) is a standard way to estimate a conservative target.
Trend: monthly trend is bullish — higher highs and higher lows inside a rising channel drawn above and below price. The breakout out of the triangle also cleared the upper channel midline, increasing odds of a run to the upper channel boundary.
Confirmation to watch: a monthly close back below the breakout level and the rising trendline would weaken the bullish case.
Practical Measured Target
Using the measured-move method gives a conservative first target:
Example estimate from the chart: take the triangle height ≈ (resistance ~3,450) − (swing low ~3,100) = 350. (3,450 − 3,100 = 350).
Add the height (350) to the breakout level (~3,450) → 3,450 + 350 = 3,800 as the first measured target; extension toward the top of the longer-term channel puts price into the ~3,900–4,000 neighborhood if momentum continues. (This is the standard target method — actual numbers depend on the exact points you measure on the chart).
Key levels
Immediate resistance / near-term targets: 3,700–3,900 (measured target and channel top).
Immediate support (first line): the breakout zone / prior flat resistance (now support) — roughly 3,350–3,450 on the chart.
Secondary support: rising lower-trendline / channel mid — roughly 3,100–3,250.
Strong structural support well below: 2,700–2,800 (major prior lows and horizontal red lines on the chart).
Use these as rules-of-thumb zones: if price reclaims and holds the breakout zone, bulls remain in control; if price closes monthly back below the rising trendline, the bullish pattern has failed.
Macro drivers & why the breakout matters now
Interest-rate expectations and real yields are the dominant macro drivers for gold: falling real yields (and expectations of Fed rate cuts) make gold more attractive, and the 2025 rally has been powered by that dynamic. Central-bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty and demand flows are additional tailwinds.
U.S. dollar: gold usually trades inverse to the DXY. Around the breakout date the dollar was not significantly stronger (DXY in the high-90s), which removes a major headwind for gold’s advance. If the dollar weakens further, that amplifies an upside path for gold; if the dollar rallies strongly, it increases the chance of a corrective pullback.
Scenarios (how to think about probabilities)
Bull case (highest probability while breakout holds): price follows measured-move to the ~3,800 region and then challenges the upper channel toward ~3,900–4,000 as momentum and lower real yields continue.
Base case (consolidation): a breakout retest — price dips back to the breakout zone (~3,350–3,450), finds buyers, then resumes uptrend (this is healthy and common).
Bear case (pattern failure): monthly close back under the rising trendline (and below ~3,100) — that would open a deeper correction toward 2,900–2,700 and reduce the bullish edge.
Trade plan and risk management (long-term investors vs traders)
Long-term investor (multi-year): if you believe in the macro thesis (lower real yields, central bank demand), holding through volatility is reasonable; consider layering in on pullbacks to the breakout zone (~3,350–3,450) with wider stops and position sizing for multi-year exposure.
Tactical trader (swing/position): the conservative trade is to wait for a breakout retest to the former resistance (buy on confirmed support hold). Entry zone: ~3,350–3,450 with a stop below the rising trendline (e.g., below ~3,100 in the chart) and targets at measured-move (~3,800) and then the channel top (~3,900–4,000). If you prefer momentum entries, a clean monthly close above the breakout with continued follow-through on the next monthly candle is a valid trigger, but tighten stops.
Always size positions so a failure (close below the rising trendline) does not blow you out — place stop levels outside normal monthly noise.
Extra checks (what to watch next)
Watch U.S. inflation prints, Fed commentary and the 10-year real yields — those will be the largest macro switches that could change the story.
Watch DXY moves: a durable dollar rally would increase the odds of a deeper retracement.
On the chart: volume/flow confirmation on the breakout (higher volume on breakout is healthier); monthly-MA alignment (longer MAs acting as support) — these help confirm sustainability.
One-line conclusion
Monthly chart shows a classically bullish ascending-triangle breakout with a conservative measured target near ~3,800 and upside extension possible toward ~3,900–4,000 if macro drivers (falling real yields, Fed easing expectations, weak dollar) remain supportive; a monthly close back below the rising trendline (~3,100 area on the chart) would invalidate the bullish scenario.
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
Gold breaks records and tops out: Where next?Gold achieved a historic breakthrough to $3,759 per ounce, potentially driven by an unusual "barbell strategy" where investors simultaneously bought risk assets while hedging against systemic risks.
On the one hand, continued expectations for two additional rate cuts by year-end supported non-yielding assets. On the other hand, political uncertainty increases as Trump prepares to meet with lawmakers on funding proposals. The probability of a Gov shutdown approaches 70% by October 1st, which would force the FOMC into a 'blind' meeting in October.
Technicals
The short-term setup shows a double top formation at $3,759, suggesting potential consolidation rather than immediate continuation.
Resistance Levels : $3,800 is a critical resistance, both a Fibonacci extension cluster and a psychological level
Support Levels :
Immediate support at $3,740 (breakout confirmation level)
Secondary support at $3,700-$3,730 (previous consolidation zone)
Deeper pullback potential to $3,673 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement)
Wave Structure : Elliott waves suggest completion of a potential Wave 3, with consolidation expected before a possible fifth wave extension toward $3,785-$3,800
Forward Outlook
The setup favours consolidation over the remainder of the week, with key events including Fed Chair Powell's speech and Friday's PCE inflation data serving as potential catalysts for the next directional move.
The momentum divergences suggest limited downside risk from current levels, making any pullback toward $3,700-$3,740 a potential buying opportunity for the anticipated final leg higher toward the $3,800 resistance zone.
Risk management remains crucial given the proximity to potential reversal levels and the unusual nature of gold's correlation with equity strength.
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XAUUSD KEY STRUCTURAL LEVELS AND POSSIBLE MOVES!Here’s the H1 market structure on XAUUSD. I anticipate a short-term sell to occur on Gold to be able to trigger all the pending orders in this market. We opened a sell position on Gold around 3764.28 and our first target profit level is at 3734.11 and second take profit at 3698.27
Go long on pullbacks; avoid chasing highsToday, as long as it breaks through 3780, I will stop going long and continue to monitor the market 📊. If it climbs to around 3800, we can attempt short positions and set the SL properly ⚠️
I reminded everyone multiple times yesterday to exit long positions at 3790 to avoid pullbacks 📉, and our stance remains unchanged today: we still favor looking for long opportunities during pullbacks 🐂—under no circumstances should we chase long positions at high levels ⚠️
Buy 3750 - 3755
TP 3760 - 3770 -3780
Sell 3798 - 3800
TP 3780 - 3770 - 3760
SL 3802
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
Exit Psychology 2/5 : The Break-Even Stop - Comfort or Illusion?NOTE – This is a post on Mindset and emotion. It is NOT a Trade idea or strategy designed to make you money. If anything, I’m taking the time here to post as an effort to help you preserve your capital, energy and will so that you are able to execute your own trading system as best you can from a place of calm, patience and confidence.
This 5-part series on the Psychology of Exits is inspired by TradingView’s recent post “The Stop-Loss Dilemma.” Link to the original post at the end of this article.
Here’s another scenario:
Your trade starts working in your favour. You feel relief. Within minutes, you move the stop to break-even. “Now I can’t lose.”
But the market breathes back, tags your new level by a whisker and then runs in your original direction. You’re flat, frustrated and watching from the sidelines.
How behaviour shows up with break-even stops:
For many traders, the urge to move to break-even comes quickly. It’s a way of taking risk off the table but often at the cost of cutting trades short. Typical behaviours include:
Locking in break-even as soon as price moves a little in your favour.
Using break-even as a substitute for taking partial profits.
Feeling “safe” after the adjustment and disengaging from trade management.
Why traders choose this approach:
There are rational reasons for going break-even:
Protecting capital in volatile conditions.
Reducing stress when multiple trades are open.
Creating a sense of progress after a string of losses.
These can all make sense in context. But the challenge is that moving too soon to break-even can turn a promising trade into repeated small scratches leaving you exhausted, under-confident and questioning your method. And … you’re still taking full losses for those trades that go immediately against you.
The psychology underneath:
At break-even, traders aren’t usually optimising expectancy; they're seeking emotional relief. The pull comes from:
Fear of loss: Wanting to avoid the pain of turning a winner back into a loser.
Need for certainty : A break-even stop feels like control in an uncertain environment.
Regret avoidance : Scratches hurt less than watching profit evaporate into loss.
Anchoring bias : Once price moves your way, the mind treats that unrealised gain as already yours. Giving it back feels like losing more than it is.
Identity narrative : Moving to break-even can reinforce the self-image of being disciplined or “safe” even if it’s cutting potential edge.
Control vs. trust : The break-even adjustment is often less about the market and more about soothing the discomfort of waiting. It’s easier to do something than to trust the original plan.
Short-term comfort over long-term edge : The relief of “no risk” overrides the patience needed to let the trade develop.
Physiology : Heart rate settles, shoulders relax, the nervous system rewards the move with immediate calm, even if expectancy drops.
Practical tips … the How:
If you use break-even stops, the work is about applying them intentionally rather than reflexively. A few ways to manage the psychological side:
Define in advance: When will you move to break-even? After it moves a pre-defined amount in your favour ( X ATRs)? After a structure shift? Make it rule-based.
Consider scaling out partial size instead of rushing to break-even. Bank some, let the rest breathe.
Journal whether break-even stops are improving or reducing expectancy across 50–100 trades.
Train your nervous system: stay with mild discomfort instead of rushing to neutralise it. For instance: notice the physical tension that arises (tight chest, shallow breath, clenched jaw) when your trade pulls back. Instead of reacting on the chart, take one slow, deliberate breath and simply observe that feeling before deciding.
Reframe:
A break-even stop isn’t wrong. It can be useful in the right context. But when used as a reflex, it’s more about managing feelings than managing risk.
Closing thought:
Break-even can feel like safety. But safety and growth don’t always align. The real edge comes from knowing when you’re protecting wisely and when you’re just buying short-term comfort at the expense of long-term results.
A link to Exit Psychology 1/5 : The Initial Stop
A link to the original article as promised:
This is Part 2 of the Psychology of Exits series .
👉 Follow and stay tuned for Part 3: The Trailing Stop - Patience vs. Protection out next week .
XAUUSD GOLD RESISTANCE 3775-3788 READ CAPTIONHi traders'. what do you think about gold
Gold is currently trading near a strong resistance zone (3775 – 3788).
Price has shown bearish rejection from this area, indicating selling pressure.
If buyers fail to push above 3795 (risk level), sellers are likely to dominate.
Downside targets align with support at 3751 and the demand zone at 3736.
Stop loss above 3795 keeps the setup safe and controlled
🔹 Resistance Zone: 3775 – 3788
🔹 Risk Level (Stop Loss): Above 3795
TP1 3751 (support zone)
3736 (demand zone)
⚡ For educational purpose only, not financial advice
👉 Follow for more safe setups & daily analysis! ✅
GOLD 4H CHART ROUE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
4H Chart Update
Yesterday we completed 3655 and 3696, noting that price would likely range between these two levels until we saw an EMA5 cross and lock to confirm the next move.
As expected, we continued to see bounces within this range allowing us to catch clean bounces. Now, we are seeing 3655 being tested with a candle. For confirmation of downside toward 3615, we still need EMA5 to cross and lock below 3655.
⚠️ If the EMA5 fails to lock, we can expect another retest back up toward the higher range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3655 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3655 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3696 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3696 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3738
BEARISH TARGETS
3615
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3615 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3583
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3583 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3545
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3545 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3509
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3509 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3458
3409
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3409 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3360
3320
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Buy zone and hold for next rallyBuy if see absorption on 3,718 or after sweep 3,712 we can long and hold for next rally pls long with confirmation like absorption selling trap etc. it's not a correction,just normal pullback
XAUUSDGold is still in a strong uptrend, the price has a chance to test the $3770-$3782 level zone, if the price cannot break through the 3782 level, there is a chance that the price will go down, consider selling the red zone.
🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
>>GooD Luck 😊
❤️ Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!
GOLD: Local Bearish Bias! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 3,379.45 Therefore, a strong bearish reaction here could determine the next move down.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 3,720.99 .Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
XAUUSD - Gold Buyshort term buy trade
Breakout and reentry out of zone
5 min closure back in zone and imediate buy look for 1:1.5 RR
19/9/68 : XAUUSD ( Europe / London Session )Using it from Europe Session until 7.00PM , I'll new analysis and update at 8.00PM
Resistance
3680-3685
3670-3675
3665
Support
3654
3644-3649
3634-3639
XAUUSD bullish rally XAUUSD is still intact bullish Rising channel and we have new BOS at 3750-3745 zone
What possible scenario we have?
My Stance on today's move
• XAUUSD on undisputed bullish trend & I took buy from 3780-3770 area as my 1st attempt with only 40 pips SL.
Secondly i will buy XAUUSD in Dips from 3750 range if 3780 support filps below
My optimal target will be 3820-3830
• if H4 candle closes below
3745 zone then our setup will be invalid
All the entires should be taken once all the rules are applied
XAU / USD 1 Hour ChartHello traders. Gold is on it's own trajectory. I am watching the current 1 hour candle to see if it respects the bottom of the previous hour's candle. Personally, I need a good pullback for a good entry. Let's see if the Pre NY volume, which starts in about half an hour from this writing, moves gold down to take out the existing longs in profit from the overnight sessions. Patience is key. Big G gets my thanks. Let's see how things play out over the next hour or so. Be well and trade the trend.
adjustment reduction, liquidity 3730⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold (XAU/USD) steadies near $3,760 in Wednesday’s Asian session after pulling back from a record $3,791. Expectations of further Fed rate cuts and safe-haven demand continue to underpin the metal. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted the “challenging” balance between inflation risks and a weakening labor market, signaling readiness to ease policy further if needed. Markets now price in two additional 25 bps cuts this year, in October and December, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding Gold.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
correction down, accumulation and continue to increase price towards 3800
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: 3800- 3802 SL 3807
TP1: $3790
TP2: $3780
TP3: $3770
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3730-$3728 SL $3723
TP1: $3740
TP2: $3750
TP3: $3760
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
Gold is going crazy. Will it continue to break through?Gold hit a new all-time high near 3758 on Monday; on Tuesday, prices continued their relentless rise, currently reaching a high near 3791.
From a technical perspective, the Bollinger Bands have opened upward again, and the price is continuing to move within the upper Bollinger Bands, suggesting continued short-term gold gains. Gold is trading upwards, supported by the MA5 moving average. The trend is clear, with minimal room for correction. There's no strong resistance above. The 3780 resistance level I mentioned in the Asian session was strongly broken through in just five hours.
Short-term trading remains bullish, with support below the 1-hour line around 3735, and further retracement focusing on the 3725-3715 area. On the whole, the short-term operation strategy for gold is to mainly go long on pullbacks and short on rebounds. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 3790-3800 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 3750-3740 support.
Fed Dovish Tone & Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Gold’s Rally🚀 XAUUSD – Daily Trading Plan: | MMFLOW TRADING
📊 Market Context
Gold continues to gain strong support from the Fed’s dovish signals and escalating geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, the USD is extending its recovery from multi-year lows, which could temporarily limit commodity gains. Positive risk sentiment across financial markets might act as a short-term headwind for XAU/USD ahead of upcoming Fed speeches. However, the long-term bullish trend has returned, and gold looks poised to challenge new all-time highs in the near term.
🔎 Technical Analysis (H1/H4)
Price has broken the descending trendline, confirming that the uptrend is back in play.
Short-term support: 3686–3684, holding above this level keeps the bullish structure intact.
Next support: 3670–3668, aligned with CP and liquidity zones on the chart.
Key resistance: 3720–3722, a critical reaction area for potential profit-taking or liquidity sweeps.
🔑 Key Levels
Resistance: 3707 ➡️ 3720
Support: 3685 ➡️ 3669 ➡️ 3658
📈 Scenarios & Trading Plan
BUY ZONE 1: 3686–3684
SL: 3680
TP: 3690 ➡️ 3695 ➡️ 3700 ➡️ 3705 ➡️ 3710 ➡️ 3720 ➡️ ???
BUY ZONE 2: 3670–3668
SL: 3664
TP: 3675 ➡️ 3680 ➡️ 3690 ➡️ 3700 ➡️ ???
SELL ZONE (Watch for Liquidity Trap): 3720–3722
SL: 3726
TP: 3715 ➡️ 3710 ➡️ 3705 ➡️ 3700 ➡️ ???
⚠️ Risk Management Notes
Be cautious of liquidity sweeps around 3720–3722 — price could fake a breakout before reversing lower.
Enter longs only after price action confirmation at support zones; avoid chasing price mid-range.
Adjust position sizing carefully, considering potential volatility from Fed speeches and geopolitical headlines.
Summary
Gold’s long-term uptrend is back, supported by dovish Fed signals and rising global tensions. The strategy prioritizes buying dips at 3686–3684 and 3670–3668 aiming for 3705–3720, while short-term selling at 3720–3722 remains valid if rejection signals appear.
For more timely updates and refined setups, consider following the MMFLOW Trading profile on TradingView to stay aligned with evolving market conditions.
Gold–Consolidation Before Next Move | Breakout or Retest?Gold is trading around 3,773 after a strong rally, now moving in a consolidation range.
Immediate resistance sits in the 3,790–3,800 zone, where bulls need a breakout for further upside momentum.
On the downside, key supports are marked at 3,763 and 3,747.
If price holds above these supports, we could see another bullish leg higher.
A clean break below 3,747 may open the way toward deeper support at 3,720.
Currently, the market is in a decision zone — the next breakout will confirm the short-term direction.
👉 Do you expect Gold to break higher, or retest deeper supports first? Share your view in the comments.
Gold Intraday Trading Plan 9/25/2025Gold indeed dropped from my selling zone and went as low as 3720 yesterday. I am still looking to sell from 3752 today. My 1st target is 3710. Ultimate target is 3690.
