Will gold prices continue to fall on September 10th?
Core view: Gold hit a record high driven by strong expectations of interest rate cuts, and the overall technical outlook showed a strong bullish pattern. The future market trend will be highly dependent on the key data to be released soon (non-farm payroll revisions, CPI, PPI), and "buy on dips" is the core strategy.
I. Trend Analysis
1. News Analysis: Rate Cut Expectations Dominate the Market
Policy Expectations: Gold's record high reflects a shift in market expectations from a "25 basis point" rate cut to a "50 basis point" rate cut. This week's CPI and PPI inflation data will be the next key test:
Meltable inflation will reinforce expectations of a significant rate cut, boosting gold prices.
Inflation exceeding expectations will only create short-term pressure and will hardly alter the overall bullish outlook.
Market sentiment: Before the data was released, market sentiment was "cautiously optimistic" and bulls did not withdraw on a large scale. Gold's safe-haven properties provided it with high support.
2. Technical Analysis: Bullish Trend Solid
Weekly: A large bullish candlestick broke through the key psychological level of $3,600, confirming medium-term strength. There are two possible scenarios for the market going forward:
Directly accelerating upward (closing with another large bullish candle this week).
It rose and then fell back to consolidate (closed with a doji), and then attacked again after accumulating strength.
Conclusion: Any pullback presents a potential buying opportunity on the dip.
Daily: Monday's positive close confirms the continuation of the uptrend. The 5-day moving average (~3,600) provides core dynamic support. Market momentum is strong, and a deeper decline is unlikely.
4-Hourly: Consolidation at high levels followed by a strong upward move. Key short-term support lies at $3,620. The candlestick chart is steadily rising along the moving average system, with no signs of a peak. The upward trend is expected to continue after a technical correction.
Upper Target: $3,650 → $3,680 → $3,700.
II. Trading Strategy
Key Strategy: Invest primarily on dips to lower levels, supplemented by short positions on rebounds to higher levels. Key Levels:
Resistance: $3665-3675
Support: $3625-3615
Trading Recommendations:
Long Strategy (Primary): Wait for gold prices to stabilize at the 3625-3615 support level, then place long orders in batches with stop-loss orders below 3600. Targets are 3650, 3670, and above.
Short Strategy (Secondary): If gold prices rapidly rise to the strong resistance level of 3665-3675 and show clear signs of resistance (such as upper shadows or bearish candlestick patterns), try shorting with a small position, entering and exiting quickly. Set a stop-loss order above 3680, with a target of 3640-3630.
Risk Warning:
This week's key data (non-farm payroll revisions, CPI, and PPI) will trigger significant market volatility. Please ensure you manage your positions and set strict stop-loss orders.
Pay close attention to the real-time changes in market expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts, which is the most core factor driving gold prices at present.
