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XAUUSD support and resistance AOI (SHORT AND WHY)Strong support and resistance AOI (Area of interest) on 4H. Wait for price to break under the AOI and retest it before entering. Big potential 1:3 to 1:4 RR if tight stop loss. Weekly is bearish, Daily is bearish and and 4H is bearish for the moment. In 30 min chart 50 EMA has also ben tested twice so big confluence. Beautiful head and shoulder on the 15M chart that the neckline has been broken. Wait for the restest again before entering short. So I believe the break and retest of the zone is going to happen anytime market opens.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ForexYN
1
Strategic positioning ahead of the Fed decision News： The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is poised to trigger significant market volatility today. Gold prices remain bearish after three consecutive days of declines. The Fed will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday. This week's expectations for the Fed meeting focus on two points: a 25 basis point rate cut, and, given the growing disagreement among policymakers regarding the future path of interest rates, Powell is unlikely to provide any clear guidance. Powell hinted earlier this month that the FOMC will continue to focus on threats to the labor market. Last week's weaker-than-expected inflation report may temporarily dampen hawkish rhetoric within the Fed regarding inflation. Due to the US government shutdown, Fed officials have been unable to obtain complete data on the labor market since early September. Specifically: Gold prices have fallen below $4,000/oz. In the coming weeks, gold prices may fall further towards the $3,850-$3,800/oz range. Unless a strong rebound occurs, the short-term outlook remains bearish. Looking at the 4-hour chart, gold prices previously fell along a descending slope from a high of $4,155, reaching a low of $3,886 before forming a V-shaped rebound. During this rebound, Fibonacci retracement levels formed a clear "stepped resistance-support" pattern. If inflation subsequently rises, or the labor market tightens again, causing the market to downgrade the consensus from "two rate cuts this year" to "one," the dollar and long-term interest rates will rise, and gold will return to below the upper edge of the descending channel. The consolidation phase, where time is used to create space, will be prolonged, and the $4,050-$4,090 range will evolve into a "strong resistance box," with multiple attempts to break through it failing to hold. Trading strategy: Buy: 4025-4035, SL: 4050, TP: 3920-3880-3820 If the price of gold does not retrace to the target level before the speech, then a short position can be established at the current price.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TheodoreSilas
1
XAUUSD ForecastGold has broken out of the descending wedge pattern, signalling a potential bullish reversal. Price is currently retesting the breakout zone near the 3,980–4,000 support area. A successful bounce from this level could trigger an upward move toward the first target at 4,045 and the second target around 4,100. Holding above the retest zone will confirm bullish momentum continuation. "Thank you for your support! If you found this idea valuable or learned something new, please consider liking and leaving a comment. I’d really appreciate hearing your feedback and thoughts
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Pintu_sahu01
#XAUUSD: +6000 Pips Swing Move In Making, Patience Pays! Gold prices have fallen sharply as the DXY has regained strength. Following the recent significant sell-off, we can anticipate the potential direction of the price. Three key targets can be considered if the price moves in our favour. The first is a nearby target at $4000 which would represent a gain of 1100 pips. Subsequent targets should be determined according to your trading plan. There are two potential entry points; if the first is invalidated the second should be considered. We wish you the best of luck and trade safely. Team Setupsfx 🚀❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Setupsfx_
10
Xauusd✅ Current XAU/USD Setup Setup Type: Bearish continuation (short after pullback) Entry (Sell Limit): 3958.00 Stop Loss: 3980.00 Take Profit 1: 3910.00 Take Profit 2: 3875.00 Price is currently reacting to a previous supply zone after a clean pullback, showing clear rejection wicks on M15 and M30 timeframes. Market structure remains bearish — we’ve had consecutive BOS (Break of Structure) to the downside and no CHoCH indicating reversal yet. Ideal entry is if price retests the 3955–3960 region and shows bearish confirmation (rejection candle or engulfing). Market context: Gold continues to trade under pressure below the 4,000 psychological level; sellers remain in control as long as 3980–4000 holds as resistance.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Amigocsek
Gold/Oil Signaling Market Is In A Super Bubble Gold = Fear Oil = how strong the economy is. Except for COVID we have never seen such an extreme reading. Yet people are buying up stocks like we will never again be able to produce another stock again as long as we live! Tulips! Here are just a few of the factors to consider that make this indicator important. Why This Indicator Matters: Key Factors at a Glance Gold’s Surge Signals a Shift Gold has soared nearly 60% year-to-date, adding a staggering $10 trillion in market capitalization. This rally effectively erases all the stock market gains made since May 2021, including those driven by AI enthusiasm and speculative tech runs. USD Can Only Be Measured Against Gold As the world’s reserve currency, the U.S. dollar’s real value is best gauged in terms of gold. This is a critical point—because when gold rises this dramatically, it reflects monetary inflation. A large part of the stock market rally has been driven by an expanding money supply, not true value creation. Curiously, this inflation hasn’t shown up in oil prices, which have collapsed, despite geopolitical risks. More on that below. The Dollar’s Worst Year in Decades 2025 marks one of the most significant declines for the U.S. dollar in recent history. Its role as the world reserve currency (WRC) has diminished—from 85% in the 1970s to just 50% today. Trade wars and tariffs are only accelerating this trend. Monetary Inflation Drives Stock Prices Stock markets are being lifted by monetary inflation, not organic growth. Stocks can be created endlessly—unlike gold. That makes gold a true inflation benchmark. The stock market’s rise is, in large part, a mirage, reflecting debased currency, not real productivity. Oil Isn’t Behaving as Expected—Why? Typically, when the dollar weakens, oil prices rise—because more dollars are needed to buy the same barrel of oil. But right now, oil prices are soft. Why? Global demand is weak, outpaced by supply. Even the Russia-Ukraine war hasn’t changed that dynamic. In fact, Russia is now importing gasoline, as Ukrainian forces continue to target and disable refining capacity. Here’s why this matters: when oil wells are opened, they can't just be turned off. If the refiners are destroyed and the oil has nowhere to go—it’s wasted. That’s a strategic win for Ukraine. The Disconnect Between Stock Prices and Profits While inflation has pushed stock prices higher, it hasn’t translated into equivalent profit growth. Example: If a stock goes from $10 to $20 due to inflation, you'd expect earnings to go from $1 to $2 to maintain the same P/E ratio. Instead, the earnings yield is just 3.2%—a historical low. That’s a major red flag. As pilots would say: WTF, over? Here’s the likely explanation: The money hasn’t reached consumers—it's concentrated in the hands of wealthy savers and leveraged investors, who are buying more stocks to sell to the next buyer willing to lever up even more. It’s a classic feedback loop—and a superbubble reminiscent of the tulip mania era. The Smart Money Knows What's Coming As this imbalance grows more obvious, central banks and institutional investors are quietly increasing their gold holdings—well above the pace of supply growth. So when Gold/Oil (two important commodities) completely disconnect like this, and Gold explodes up like this, you'd better take notice! Lastly, it takes 100 ounces to buy a new home. Last time this occurred was in 1978 ish, 2011, and now! Debt to GDP in 76 was 33%, 2011 was 99% and today 126% It is not the same animal as the past. GTFO & STFO! No matter where the prices for stocks go! CAUTION!!!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by RealMacro
77
Gold vs USD – Bearish Breakout Playbook for Smart Day Traders🏆 GOLD SCALPERS UNITE! XAU/USD Bearish Heist Plan 💰⚡ 📊 ASSET OVERVIEW XAU/USD | Gold vs. U.S. Dollar | Metals Market Trade Type: Day Trade Setup 🎯 Bias: Bearish 🐻📉 🎭 THE HEIST PLAN Alright, gold diggers and chart bandits! 👀💎 Time to put on our bearish masks because this precious metal is looking HEAVY! We're eyeing a potential drop from the clouds back down to reality. Let's break down this professional robbery... I mean, trading strategy 😏 🔥 TRADE SETUP BREAKDOWN 🎯 ENTRY ZONE Entry Price: Market execution available after Moving Average breakout @ $2,740.00 (Wait for confirmation before entering the vault!) 🛑 STOP LOSS SL Level: $2,860.00 Place your stop loss ONLY after the breakout confirmation at the mentioned price level ⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: This is an aggressive stop placement. Manage your position size accordingly! Not financial advice—trade at your own risk, legends! 🎁 TAKE PROFIT TARGET TP Level: $2,660.00 LSMA acting as strong resistance zone 💪 Overbought conditions detected on multiple timeframes ⚡ Bull trap potential in play—don't get caught! 🪤 📌 NOTE: These are reference levels based on technical analysis. You're the captain of your own ship! 🚢 Adjust targets and stops according to YOUR risk tolerance and trading plan. 🔍 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS ✅ Moving Average breakout confirmation required ✅ LSMA resistance convergence zone ahead ✅ Overbought momentum signals flashing ✅ Classic bull trap formation developing ✅ Risk-to-reward ratio favors bears on this setup 💱 CORRELATED PAIRS TO WATCH Keep your eyes on these bad boys for confluence: TVC:DXY (U.S. Dollar Index): Inverse correlation—if DXY pumps, gold typically dumps 📉 OANDA:XAGUSD (Silver): Precious metals cousin—usually moves in sync with gold FX:EURUSD : Risk-on/risk-off sentiment indicator—watch for dollar strength 💵 COMEX:GC1! Futures: Direct gold futures contract for institutional flow confirmation 📊 Key Correlation Point: Strong dollar = Weak gold. Watch DXY breakouts and EUR/USD weakness for additional bearish confirmation on XAU/USD! 🎯 ⚡ RISK MANAGEMENT REMINDER Listen up, trading thieves! 🎩 This setup has a wider stop loss, which means: Position sizing is CRITICAL 🔐 Never risk more than 1-2% of your account per trade The market doesn't care about your feelings—protect that capital! 💪 Partial profit-taking is your friend on the way down 📊 📢 FINAL WORDS Gold bugs, this bearish setup is cooking! 🔥 But remember—the market is the ultimate boss, and it doesn't follow our scripts. Stay nimble, stay disciplined, and most importantly, stay profitable! 💎🙌 Watch those key levels, manage your risk like a pro, and let's see if this precious metal comes back down to earth! 🌍📉 ✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community! #XAUUSD #Gold #GoldTrading #ForexSignals #TechnicalAnalysis #DayTrading #BearishSetup #MetalsTrading #TradingView #ForexStrategy #GoldAnalysis #PriceAction #SwingTrading #RiskManagement #ForexCommunity #ChartAnalysis #TradingIdeas #MarketAnalysis #GoldForecast #USDOLLAR ⚡ Trade safe, trade smart, and may the pips be ever in your favor! ⚡
SAXO:XAUUSDShort
by The-Thief
If $GOLD is at its peak, is $BTC next?Gold has been rejected at the 0.618 level of the Fibonacci channel on the 3M chart. The Stoch RSI demonstrates a striking similarity to past cycles: The bullish structure, which continued in the overbought region in October 2010, peaked 273 days later in July 2011. Momentum, which continued in the overbought region again in October 2019, reached its peak 365 days later in October 2020. Today, history paints a similar picture once again. The bullish structure, which began in the overbought region in October 2024, may have reached its peak approximately one year later, in October 2025, just as in previous cycles. Gold appears to be completing its historical rhythm once again. Note: The Bitcoin / Gold pair is developing in the opposite direction.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EtherNasyonaL
Policy essence: "Eagle-wing rhetoric" concealing a loose coreThe trend significance of the interest rate cut decision: This interest rate cut is the second one in 2025, with a cumulative easing of 50 basis points, and the dovish forces in the voting results were significantly dominant - Milan's radical proposal to cut interest rates by 50 basis points was not passed, but the only opponent against the rate cut was Schmidt, with 10 votes in favor, highlighting the "loose consensus". This is a fundamental difference from the "consecutive rate hikes" tone in 2023. Historical data shows that the probability of initiating continuous easing within 3 months after the first rate cut is 83%, with the average gold price rising by more than 7%, and the current price has not reflected this trend. The liquidity booster from the termination of the balance sheet: The Fed clearly stated that it would completely end the balance sheet reduction on December 1st. The easing strength of this action has been severely underestimated by the market. From historical experience, within 1 month after the termination of the balance sheet reduction in 2019, the gold price rose by 4.2%, while the bank reserves have dropped to the critical level of 2.93 trillion US dollars, and the termination of the balance sheet reduction will directly release over 300 billion US dollars of liquidity. This "interest rate cut + balance sheet expansion" combination is precisely the core driving force for the rise of gold, and the price of 3924 US dollars underestimates this pricing. The misleading sentiment of Powell's statement: Powell emphasized that the interest rate cut in December is "not a certainty", which is actually a cautious statement in the absence of data - the US government shutdown led to the delayed release of data such as the September CPI, and the Fed needs to reserve flexibility for its policies. However, the non-farm payrolls added only 12,000 in October (far below the expected 113,000), and the core data of weak private sector employment has already laid the groundwork for the interest rate cut in December. Interest rate futures show that the probability of an interest rate cut in December is still 67%, and the speech did not completely reverse this. Today's gold trading strategy buy：3915-3925 tp:3940-3950 sl:3895
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_Lewis1
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (October 29, 2025) Momentum • D1: Momentum remains compressed, but yesterday’s candle closed with a long lower wick — a clear sign of weakening downside pressure. A bullish daily close today would confirm a potential D1 reversal. • H4: Momentum is preparing to turn down from the overbought zone, yet the current upward move is still weak. We need to monitor whether price can hold above the previous low once H4 momentum drops toward oversold. • H1: Momentum is falling, but price is supported around 3953 and capped near 3994. As long as price holds above 3927 and avoids breaking 3892, the next H4 oversold phase could confirm a stronger upside structure. ________________________________________ Wave Structure • D1: The current decline equals 0.382 retracement of wave (3) yellow, a key Fibonacci level. • H4: Wave (4) purple has already retraced 0.782 of wave (3) — unusually deep for a normal 4th wave (which typically stops around 0.382–0.5). This suggests the ongoing correction may represent wave (4) yellow on the D1 timeframe. If true, the market could now be forming wave W of a larger W–X–Y structure, meaning the upcoming recovery might only be a slow, overlapping X wave before another decline. • H1: The 5-wave black structure seems completed. A break above 3995, followed by a test of 4050, would confirm the end of wave (5) black and the start of a corrective move upward. ________________________________________ Summary Price volatility is still high — avoid limit orders for now and watch how price reacts at key zones. • 🔹 Support: 3953 – 3927 – 3892 • 🔹 Resistance: 3994 – 4050
OANDA:XAUUSD
by WavePoint_FX
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for October 30Gold Technical Analysis: Daily chart resistance: 4090, support: 3840. 4-hour chart resistance: 4050, support: 3890. 1-hour chart resistance: 4030, support: 3916. Technical Analysis: Gold prices rebounded technically after falling nearly 5% over four consecutive trading days. The market faced short-term headwinds due to Powell downplaying the possibility of a December rate cut; however, widening divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions have introduced new uncertainty to the market. Meanwhile, the trade easing agreement reached between the US and China has weakened safe-haven demand. The daily chart shows a stepped decline, with four consecutive days of losses up to the previous trading day, and the moving average system has formed a death cross. After the European market opened today, prices rebounded rapidly. Short-term resistance levels to watch are 4010 and 4030. If gold can hold above 4010 and remain firmly above 4000, it will likely attract previous buying interest and resume its long-term upward trend. Conversely, if gold fails to recover and hold above 4000, selling on rallies is advisable. Looking at the 1-hour chart, the moving averages have formed a golden cross, and the MACD/KDJ indicators are providing upward momentum. In the short term, focus on the continuation of the upward trend, paying particular attention to yesterday's rebound high of 4006 and the previous trading day's rebound high around 4030. Trading Strategy: SELL: 4050~4056 near BUY: 3966~3960 near More Analysis →
TVC:GOLDLong
by ActuaryJ
XAU/USD Technical AnalysisXAU/USD Technical Analysis – Gold Awaits Reaction Near 4,000 Zone Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade within a corrective structure after a sharp sell-off from the 4,180 area. On the H1 timeframe, price is currently consolidating just below the psychological level of 4,000 USD/oz, showing a battle between short-term buyers and dominant sellers. The market is now testing a key decision point: A bullish breakout above 4,020 – 4,040 could trigger a short-term rally toward 4,100 – 4,130, and potentially the major resistance near 4,180. Conversely, failure to sustain above the 4,000 zone would likely invite renewed selling pressure, driving price back toward 3,950 and possibly 3,880. This makes the current area a crucial inflection point where price action confirmation will determine the next directional move. Key Technical Levels Resistance Zones: 4,040 / 4,130 / 4,180 Support Levels: 3,950 / 3,880 Psychological Level: 4,000 Trading Plan Scenario 1 (Bullish Breakout): Entry: Above 4,040 (confirmed breakout) Targets: 4,100 – 4,130 Stop-Loss: Below 3,990 Scenario 2 (Bearish Rejection): Entry: Near 4,020 – 4,040 (sell rejection signals) Targets: 3,950 – 3,880 Stop-Loss: Above 4,060 Technical Outlook Momentum remains fragile after the recent correction, with traders waiting for confirmation before committing to a directional bias. A clean break above 4,040 would shift short-term sentiment bullish, while a strong rejection from this zone would reaffirm the prevailing downtrend. Keep an eye on upcoming U.S. economic data and Fed commentary, as volatility around the 4,000 level could set the tone for November’s trading range. Follow for more daily gold market updates, trade ideas, and macro-driven setups designed for professional traders.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
Gold surges strongly after Fed decision – eyes on 4000+ breakout1. Market Movements After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% and signaled a potential end to quantitative tightening (QT), gold extended its strong upward momentum. Institutional and ETF buying continues to drive prices higher, with gold now testing the key psychological level at $4000/oz. 2. Technical Analysis • Near-term Support: $3960 – $3970 • Deeper Support: $3935 – $3940 (pre-Fed accumulation zone & H4 EMA50) • Immediate Resistance: $3988 – $4000 • Extended Resistance: $4025 – $4040 (mid-October technical high) • Momentum: Both EMA20 and EMA50 on H1 and H4 are sloping upward, confirming strong bullish momentum. RSI remains elevated (70–75), signaling overbought but still strong trend conditions. • Volume: Continues to rise steadily, showing sustained institutional inflows. However, short-term correction risks remain near $4000 due to overextension. 3. Outlook The overall trend remains bullish, but caution is advised as gold approaches the $4000–$4040 resistance zone — a potential area of strong profit-taking. If gold fails to break above $4040 decisively, a short-term pullback toward $3970 or $3940 is likely. 4. Suggested Trading Plan 🔺 BUY XAU/USD Entry: $3925 – $3928 🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips 🛑 SL: $3922 🔻 SELL XAU/USD Entry: $4037 – $4040 🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips 🛑 SL: $4043
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mian-FXSignals
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure TVC:GOLD Gold rebounded from the $3,931–3,937 support zone, regaining traction above $3,950. The chart shows potential upside toward the $3,981–3,988 resistance zone, though price is still within a short-term range. If buyers maintain momentum, a break above $3,988 could open the way to $4,000. Conversely, failure to hold above $3,931 may trigger renewed downside pressure. 🎯 Trade Setup Entry: $3,937 – $3,931 (support retest) Stop Loss: $3,929 Take Profit: $3,981 – $3,987 Risk-Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 5.67 🌐 Macro Background Gold attracted safe-haven bids after snapping a four-day losing streak. As FXStreet’s Haresh Menghani notes: “The US Dollar drifts lower amid shutdown concerns, lending some support to Gold.” 【FXStreet】 The USD weakened despite the Fed’s hawkish stance, pressured by economic uncertainty from the prolonged U.S. government shutdown. The Trump–Xi meeting offered a softer equity market tone, reflecting lingering geopolitical caution. The Fed cut rates by 25 bps as expected, but Chair Powell rejected expectations of another December cut, limiting Gold’s upside. Traders now await FOMC member speeches for clues on the future rate-cut path. This combination leaves Gold supported by safe-haven demand but capped by Fed’s hawkish tilt. 🔑 Key Technical Levels Resistance: $3,981 – $3,988 Support: $3,931 – $3,937 Psychological Level: $4,000 📌 Trade Summary Gold holds firm above $3,950 with renewed safe-haven flows, but faces resistance near $3,985. A bullish setup favours buying dips into support ($3,931–3,937) with targets at $3,987. Caution is warranted as Fed commentary could inject volatility. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ATFX_Global
1
Gold Extends Decline Below $4,000 as Risk Appetite Returns🔍 Market Context Gold continues to weaken as renewed optimism over US–China trade relations reduces safe-haven demand. Despite the Fed’s dovish tone after the latest FOMC meeting, the Dollar remains relatively capped, offering limited support to bullion. However, the technical landscape remains bearish — the decisive break below the $4,000 handle signals a continuation of the downside structure that’s been unfolding since early in the week. 📊 Technical Analysis • Structure: Clear downtrend across H1–H4, with consistent lower highs and controlled liquidity sweeps. • Key Resistance: 3,985 – 4,000 (former support now turned supply). • Short-Term Targets:  – 3,925 – 3,930 → initial liquidity pocket.  – 3,880 – 3,860 → extended bearish target aligned with Fibo 1.618 extension. • Invalidation: Only a confirmed break & hold above 4,020 – 4,030 would shift bias neutral-to-bullish. 🎯 Trading Outlook If gold retests the 3,985–4,000 zone and fails to reclaim it, sellers are likely to extend control toward 3,920 or lower ahead of the FOMC-driven volatility. Momentum remains bearish as long as the market trades below the 4,000 pivot — liquidity below 3,900 may attract smart money before any meaningful rebound. ⚜️ Summary This decline isn’t random — it’s a structural reset. The market is rebalancing after months of overextended bullish sentiment. Watch how price reacts between 3,920–3,880 — this zone could define the next shift in gold’s short-term direction. 📊 MMFLOW TRADING Insight: “Smart money doesn’t chase candles — it waits for liquidity to shift.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading