Gold price correction is within expectations, waiting for layout
News:
When it comes to long-term gold trading, attempting to find a "perfect low" is often unrealistic. While Friday's drop of nearly $200 in gold may seem dramatic, it's only half of last week's gains, making the correction still within reasonable bounds. After hitting 4186, prices quickly stabilized and rebounded to 4247, forming a typical bottoming-out pattern. This level is the 0.5 retracement support level of this week's upward trend.
Specifically:
Opportunities often lurk amidst sharp declines. After Friday's pullback to key support, bullish sentiment has stabilized. We maintain a bullish outlook for the start of the week and recommend placing long positions in batches above Friday's low.
Based on recent trends, the market is expected to trade sideways and rise slowly at the beginning of the week, with a focus on the 4220-4210 support zone. If the Asian session can break through and hold the 4275-4285 pressure zone, then you can follow up with long orders in the European and American sessions; if it maintains volatility, then wait patiently for opportunities to accumulate at low levels and stick to the long strategy on pullbacks.
Trading strategy:
Buy: 4225-4220, SL: 4210, TP: 4275-4300
Trade ideas
Bias Compression: Breakout or Breakdown Incoming.XAU/USD Final October Outlook — Structure, Pressure Zones, and Bias Control
As October draws to a close, Gold continues to respect its technical framework, maintaining a disciplined corrective structure after the mid-month rejection from the upper resistance zone. The chart now reveals a series of pressure zones, each represented by a triangular formation — a visual depiction of directional bias and momentum buildup.
The green triangle reflects the current buy pressure zone, where price is attempting to stabilize after the recent sell leg. A sustained move within this area could trigger a short-term rebound, leading price back toward the Major Benchmark at 4,369. A confirmed breakout above this level would signal a structural shift, opening the path toward the Initial Monthly Target at 4,619.
Conversely, the red triangle represents the sell pressure zone, where bearish continuation remains dominant. As long as price action remains inside this red triangle, selling pressure is expected to persist, promoting further downside momentum through the Sell Continuation phase. However, an exit above the red triangle would invalidate the bearish structure, signaling exhaustion in the current downtrend and potential reversal strength building into early November.
The Sell Continuation Target at 3,374 stands as the completion point for this corrective wave should bearish momentum remain intact.
In summary, each triangle serves as a visual boundary of market intent — buyers defending the green zone, sellers maintaining control within the red. October’s final sessions will determine which side ultimately dictates November’s opening structure.
Final October note: Structure remains intact, pressure zones are clearly defined, and momentum balance will dictate the next major move.
XAUUSD is going downGold (XAUUSD) is showing signs of potential downside continuation after a sharp rejection from recent highs. The daily candle formed a long upper wick and closed below the midline of the green band — indicating profit-taking and emerging selling pressure.
Bearish Influences
Rejection Candle: Strong upper wick signals sellers defending resistance near the 4,180–4,200 zone.
Loss of Momentum: Price slipped below the short-term support band, suggesting weakening bullish control.
EMA / Structure Confluence: The current pullback aligns with the lower trendline slope and prior breakout structure — a likely retracement phase forming.
🎯 Fibonacci Bearish Targets
If price fails to reclaim the 4,180 level and bearish momentum persists, look for these downside targets:
Target 1 (0.382 Fib) → $4,047 – $4,050
Minor support and initial retracement level.
Target 2 (0.618 Fib) → $3,943 – $3,950
Key Fibonacci confluence and previous structure support zone.
Target 3 (1.000 Fib) → $3,814 – $3,820
Full retracement target aligning with the lower green volatility band — potential swing low zone.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (October 24, 2025)
1️⃣ Momentum
D1 Timeframe:
• D1 momentum is closing within the oversold zone → bearish strength has clearly weakened.
• The probability of a bullish reversal is now very high.
• A strong bullish D1 candle close is needed to confirm the reversal.
• Once confirmed, price may enter a 5-day bullish rally.
H4 Timeframe:
• H4 momentum is still declining.
• If the current H4 candle closes as it is now, we may see a main bearish move today (around 5 H4 candles).
• Since today is Friday, a deeper decline remains possible.
→ Therefore, careful observation and analysis are required before entering any trades.
H1 Timeframe:
• H1 momentum continues to decline.
• Price may drop toward the 4098 liquidity zone.
• If this level breaks, the next potential target is 4050.
________________________________________
2️⃣ Wave Structure
D1 Structure:
• Price has been moving sideways for several days.
• In Elliott Wave theory, when price reaches its target, it often needs time symmetry before the wave completes.
• Therefore, this prolonged sideways phase helps maintain time balance.
• It’s still too early to confirm whether this is yellow Wave 4 or just Wave 4 within yellow Wave 3.
H4 Structure:
• There are two possible scenarios:
1. The blue Y wave is still unfolding.
2. The purple Wave 5 has already started forming.
• To determine which scenario is valid, we monitor the current
H4 bearish phase:
o If price does not break the previous low, and H4 momentum enters the oversold zone, it likely indicates purple Wave 5 has begun, with an upside target near 4476.
o If price breaks the previous low, the blue Y corrective wave is still in progress, or a larger corrective structure is unfolding.
o In that case, we’ll watch the lower liquidity zones, with the ideal completion target for Wave Y around 3927.
H1 Structure:
• On the H1 chart, Wave C appears to have completed in the form of an Ending Triangle.
• According to Elliott theory, after an ending triangle, price should drop sharply and quickly.
• However, such a strong drop hasn’t appeared yet, so we continue to observe the price action carefully.
There are two main scenarios to consider:
1. If price declines slowly toward the 4050 liquidity zone, showing overlapping waves while H4 momentum moves into the oversold region, it’s likely that Wave 5 has already started.
→ In this case, we’ll look for buying opportunities.
2. If price falls rapidly and steeply, it suggests that the blue Y wave is still unfolding, or that the market is inside a larger corrective phase.
→ In this case, price may break below 4004, and we will patiently wait for buy setups around 3953 or 3927.
________________________________________
3️⃣ Trading Plan
• Sell Setup:
o Yesterday’s sell zone at 4149 has already reached about +400 pips.
o No new ideal sell zone for now → wait for liquidity breaks to look for the next sell setup.
• Buy Setup:
o Monitor potential buy reactions at:
4050
3953
3927
⚠️ Note:
Price is currently at a sensitive zone, with each candle showing a range over 200 pips.
→ Therefore, limit orders are highly risky at the moment and could easily get stopped out.
GOLD → Correction after aggressive growthFX:XAUUSD is in a correction phase after a month and a half of aggressive growth. The price is forming a trading range and continues to storm support...
The record growth was overheated, and traders are closing long positions. A gradual change in the fundamental background and market sentiment is also provoking an outflow of funds. However, US-China negotiations, the ongoing US shutdown, and the tense geopolitical situation, including the cancellation of Trump's meeting with Putin, create additional risks in the economy, which may support the metal.
The correction in gold looks like a healthy pause. The $4,000 level remains key support. A recovery above $4100 indicates continued buyer interest, but further dynamics depend on news about trade negotiations.
Resistance levels: 4082, 4107, 4163
Support levels: 4059, 4000
A breakdown of the trading range support could trigger further sell-offs. Focus on 4000K, aggressive reaction possible. At the moment, the market is falling as aggressively as it rose. We need to wait for the price to slow down in order to make reasonable technical decisions.
Best regards, R. Linda!
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for October 22Gold Technical Analysis
Daily Resistance: 4380, Support: 3900
4-Hour Resistance: 4180, Support: 4000
1-Hour Resistance: 4160, Support: 4000
Technically, gold fell by $380, temporarily halting its decline near 4000. Technical indicators are recovering, and the market is taking a brief breather. Bull markets are prone to large swings, so it's unclear whether gold has truly reversed in the short term.
Gold has tested the 4000 support level twice. Watch for the continuation of the short-term downtrend. The moving average price has broken through the upward trend line in the short term, and the indicators are in a state of recovery, but the Bollinger Bands remain upward. The 4170/4180 levels on the daily chart are key. If they are successfully recaptured, the market is poised for a strong bullish resurgence. Otherwise, the market will continue to fluctuate downwards in the short term, looking for support. Focus on the 4000 level. If it breaks below, it will continue to move towards 3900.
Looking at the 1-hour chart, the candlestick pattern has broken below the neckline of the M-shaped top. Market bearish sentiment is being released, and indicators continue to move downward rapidly. The short-term bull-bear dividing line is between 4188 and 4208. Short-term rebound momentum is limited, and the NY market remains bearish.
Trading Strategy:
BUY: 4000-4005near
SELL: 4160near
SELL: 4178near
More Shares →
GOLD → The correction forms a trading range. Growth?FX:XAUUSD is adjusting to $4250 after retesting the all-time high of 4380. Short-term pressure is linked to hopes for an easing of the trade war between the US and China, but the bullish trend remains intact.
Key factors: Bentsen's meeting with the Chinese Vice Premier this week has revived optimism for a deal. The reduction in trade risks is temporarily supporting the USD. Hassett's statements about the imminent resumption of government work have reinforced risk-on sentiment.
Support for gold: The threat of tariffs rising to 155% from November 1 reminds us of the risks. Two rate cuts before the end of the year remain in focus. Friday's inflation data release and US corporate earnings reports are keeping demand for hedging alive.
Accordingly, the correction in gold is a temporary pause. The uptrend will remain unchanged as long as macro uncertainty persists.
Support levels: 4250, 4218
Resistance levels: 4278, 4316
Within the bullish trend, the price is forming a trading range. A retest of support could end in a recovery, with the fundamental background favoring the bulls. A retest of 4245 could trigger growth, as could a breakout of 4278 (closing above resistance).
Best regards, R. Linda!
Gold next week: Key S/R Levels and Outlook for Traders🔥 GOLD WEEKLY SNAPSHOT — BY PROJECTSYNDICATE
🏆 High/Close: $4,379 → ~$4,252 — higher close vs. last week’s pullback finish.
📈 Trend: Uptrend intact > $4,000; dip buyers continue to control rhythm.
🛡 Supports: $4,180–$4,140 → $4,100–$4,050 → $4,000 must hold.
🚧 Resistances: $4,260 / $4,300 / $4,350 → stretch $4,380–$4,420.
🧭 Bias next week: Buy-the-dip > $4,140–$4,200; momentum regain targets $4,300–$4,380+. Invalidation < $4,050 → risk $4,000/3,980.
🌍 Macro tailwinds:
• Fed: Markets lean to another cut into Oct 28–29; softer real yields buoy gold.
• FX: DXY under pressure = constructive backdrop.
• Flows: ETF interest & CB buying remain supportive on dips.
• Geopolitics: Tariff/trade and regional risks keep safe-haven bids live.
🎯 Street view: Several houses float $5,000/oz by 2026 scenarios on easing policy & reserve diversification narratives
________________________________________
🔝 Key Resistance Zones
• $4,260–$4,280 near-ATH supply / immediate ceiling from close
• $4,300–$4,350 extension target band
• $4,380–$4,420 stretch zone toward prior spike high and measured extensions
🛡 Support Zones
• $4,220–$4,200 first retest band just below close
• $4,180–$4,140
• $4,100–$4,050 deeper pullback shelf; $4,000 remains the big psych
________________________________________
⚖️ Base Case Scenario
Expect shallow pullbacks into $4,220–$4,140 to be bought, followed by rotation back into the $4,260–$4,300 resistance stack for an ATH retest.
🚀 Breakout Trigger
A sustained push/acceptance > ~$4,280 unlocks $4,300 → $4,350, with room toward $4,380–$4,420 if momentum persists.
💡 Market Drivers
• Fed cut expectations into late Oct(lower real yields = gold tailwind
• USD softness / DXY sub-100 tone supports metals
• Ongoing central-bank bullion demand; ETF inflows stabilizing
• Geopolitics & trade/tariff headlines keeping safety bids active
🔓 Bull / Bear Trigger Lines
• Bullish above: $4,140–$4,200
• Bearish below: $4,100–$4,050 risk expands under $4,000
🧭 Strategy
Accumulate dips above $4,140–$4,200.
On breakout > $4,280, target $4,300–$4,350+. Maintain tight risk under stepped supports; invalidate momentum below $4,050–$4,000.
________________________________________
Gold is still in a downward channel
News:
On Wednesday (October 22nd), spot gold trading saw increased volatility, trading above $4,000 before the US market opened. Previously, the price of gold retreated rapidly from its stage high: it once reached $4,161 in the European session and then came under pressure again; in sharp contrast to the previous stage peak of $4,380, the retreat was significant, and the market became increasingly sensitive to the offensive and defensive switches of the "four thousand mark".
Overall, the market is in a data vacuum. Affected by the government shutdown, the economic schedule on Wednesday was empty, with only a small number of Treasury auctions and repurchase operations supporting liquidity. However, global macro events have quietly amplified the cross-market linkage effect.
Specifically:
Judging from the 4-hour market trend, the current focus is on the short-term suppression of 4090-4080 on the top, and the short-term support of 4000 on the bottom. If the bulls cannot break through, gold will continue to maintain a downward trend. The operation should be mainly high-altitude, and wait patiently for key points to enter the market. I will remind you of the specific operation strategy in the channel, so please pay attention to it in time.
Trading strategy:
Buy: 4090-4080, SL: 4105, TP: 3990-3965
Gold Pulls Back on Profit-Taking, Bulls Defend the $4000 LevelGold Pulls Back on Profit-Taking, Bulls Defend the $4000 Level
Yesterday, gold faced a quick sell-off, likely triggered by the profit-taking of large institutions (manipulators), and corrected by almost 8.6%.
Considering that this move was created without news, it is a clear sign of manipulation. We cannot consider overbought conditions, as they have been in this state for 2 years.
The lower low was created near 4000, where the price found the bulls well-positioned near that psychological price zone.
Gold remains bullish and could rise again as shown in the chart.
It will break the 4000 level only if a larger manipulation unfolds again today or during the next week.
The price should rise again with targets at 4190; 4250; 4300 and 4350.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Gold Price Outlook | Buyers Stay in Full ControlGold remains firmly positioned within its broader bullish trajectory, supported by consistent demand from both institutional and retail investors. The market has shown strong resilience, forming a well-defined higher-low structure, which reflects continued accumulation. Price action indicates that buyers are confidently stepping in after each controlled pullback, maintaining upward momentum.
The current market tone favors continuation toward the 4,180–4,250 range if momentum persists. Short-term retracements into the 4,070–4,090 area may offer new buying opportunities for position traders aligning with the prevailing trend. Macroeconomic factors such as ongoing inflation concerns, geopolitical instability, and cautious monetary policy stance continue to underpin gold’s strength.
Gold Price in Free Fall👋Hello everyone, let’s take a look at OANDA:XAUUSD and see what’s happening!
At the time of writing, the precious metal continues to move within a downward wave. At one point, gold dropped close to the $4,000 mark, down more than $350 compared to the same time in the previous session — a decline of nearly 5%.
This marks the sharpest drop after nine consecutive weeks of gains. The main reasons behind this move are the strengthening U.S. dollar, profit-taking pressure, and diminishing caution as U.S.–China trade tensions show signs of easing.
In addition, optimism over the potential reopening of the U.S. government, reduced political uncertainty, and improving trade sentiment have lessened investors’ urgent demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
From a technical perspective: Gold had previously fallen after forming a double-top pattern, breaking through several key support levels. It is now reacting around $4,100, gaining temporary momentum from the $4,000 support zone.
In the short term, I expect a minor rebound before the downtrend may resume, but from a medium to long-term view, I remain optimistic, supported by expectations that the Fed will soon ease monetary policy, Trump’s tariff measures, and continued gold buying by central banks.
What about you — how do you see gold’s next move today? 💬Share your thoughts in the comments below.
Good luck and happy trading!
GOLD Daily Plan (Oct 20, 2025) | Buy Setup from 4235–4225 Target🧭 DAILY TRADING PLAN – GOLD (XAU/USD)
Date: Oct 20, 2025
Main timeframe: M30 – H1
Strategy: SMC + Volume Profile + Fibo retracement
1. MARKET CONTEXT
After a sharp drop from 4370 → 4200, price formed a temporary bottom around 4179 and started building a corrective structure.
Currently, price is consolidating between 4240–4260, located near the Value Area Low of the previous session.
On the Volume Profile, the POC (Point of Control) from the prior session is around 4296, aligning with the Fibonacci 0.618 level — this is a major resistance zone and a good target area or reversal point.
2. MAIN SCENARIO (BUY SETUP)
Reason for entry:
Price is reacting from a small demand zone (4235–4225) with increasing volume, showing signs of absorption from buyers.
Trade plan:
Entry: 4235 – 4225
Stop Loss: 4218 (≈6–7 points)
Take Profit 1: 4288
Take Profit 2: 4296 (POC + Fibo 0.618 confluence)
Take Profit 3: 4316 (first supply zone on Chart 1)
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: around 1:2.5 to 1:3
3. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO (SELL SETUP)
If price fails to hold above 4220 and breaks structure to the downside:
Entry: below 4215 after confirmation (CHoCH / BOS on M15)
Stop Loss: 4222
Take Profit: 4199 → 4179 (previous low & liquidity pool)
4. SUMMARY
→ Focus on the buy setup from 4235–4225 as long as price holds above 4218.
→ Be cautious taking longs near 4296–4316 (supply zone).
→ If bearish momentum returns, switch to the short scenario targeting 4199.
XAUUSD: Bullish Momentum Still Intact After a Healthy PullbackHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Gold setup.
Market Analysis
The broader trend for Gold remains strongly bullish, as we can clearly see from the consistent upward channel that has been forming since mid-September. Each corrective phase has been followed by a decisive breakout, confirming buyers’ control and sustaining the uptrend.
Recently, the market broke out from the upper boundary of the range near 4020, establishing a new structural high close to the 4250 resistance zone. However, after reaching this zone, the price entered a correction phase, pulling back to retest the major support zone around 4050–4020 — a level that also aligns with the lower boundary of the ascending channel.
My Scenario & Strategy
At the moment, the price is stabilizing around the support zone, showing early signs of a potential bullish rebound. This zone has acted as a strong demand area throughout the uptrend, and I expect buyers to defend it once again. If the price confirms a bounce from this level, the next logical move would be a continuation towards the 4215 resistance zone, which also aligns with the mid-level of the previous range.
I remain bullish on Gold while the price holds above the 4020 support zone. A successful retest here would provide a good opportunity for long positions targeting 4215 initially. If the price fails to hold above this level, we could see a deeper pullback — but as long as the channel structure remains intact, the broader bias stays positive.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
Analysis and possible path of goldHi traders
One-hour structure of gold:
The structure of the one-hour time frame and above is still the bullish structure and the movement that can be imagined this week. The liquidity points and three resistance / support are marked on the chart. They are the market reaction points that can be triggered to enter at these levels in the lower time.
The area of 4202 is the choch-hunt line that can act as a support pullback and even the main positive reaction can be formed from this area, but ideally the current bottom is collected once again and rises from one of the three supports below the bottom.
Have a good week
What is Equilibrium in SMC. Balance and Imbalance in Forex Gold
Equilibrium is one of the core elements for understanding market liquidity.
In this article, we will go through the essential basics of liquidity in Forex trading with Smart Money Concepts SMC.
You will learn the interconnections between supply and demand and I will explain how to easily identify balance and imbalance on any market.
Let's start our discussion with understanding how forex pairs move.
The price of an asset goes up if the market demand is stronger than the market supply. The excess of buying activity make the markets update the highs. In smart money concepts, such an event will also be called a buying imbalance.
Look at a strong bullish rally on Gold.
The price is going up because of a buying imbalance.
A strong buying activity creates a massive amount of buyers with unfilled orders.
To entice sellers to start selling, they must offer a higher-better price.
At the same time, if the price of an asset goes down , it means that the market supply is stronger than a demand. The excess of supply will make the markets update the lows. In smc, it will be called a selling imbalance.
That is exactly what is happening with GBPUSD forex pair.
A strong selling activity and the shortage of demand makes the price go down.
The excess of supply or demand on the market can not be eternal.
The lower the price becomes, the more buyers will start buying, and the more sellers will start closing their positions.
At some moment, the surplus of supply will be absorbed by the buyers.
That will be a moment when the market will find equilibrium , the balance between supply and demand.
A strong bearish imbalance on USDJPY made the price drop significantly.
The falling price made 3 things:
It attracted more buyers, because the lower the price the more profitable is buying USDJPY.
It discouraged some buyers from buying, considering that the price is already "too low".
It encouraged some buyers to close their positions in profit.
Because of that, USDJPY stopped falling and found a balance in supply and demand. That is what we call Equilibrium .
In a bull run, the higher the price will go, the more sellers will start selling.
At some moment, buying imbalance will be absorbed by the bears and supply & demand will eventually balance.
Such an event will be called the equilibrium .
EURGBP was rallying strongly.
The higher the price went, the more sellers started to sell, considering selling the pair more and more profitable.
And the same time, fewer buyers were buying and the more started to close their buy positions in profits.
At some moment, the entire excess of the market demand was absorbed by a supply. The market stopped growing and equilibrium was found.
One of the main characteristics of a market equilibrium is sideways price movement and a termination of a formation of new highs or new lows.
Usually, such a sideways price action will form a horizontal range.
That's a real example how a CAD JPY pair found an equilibrium after an extended bearish movement. A formation of a horizontal range confirmed a balance between a supply and a demand.
Please, note that these ranges will form on any time frame that you analyse.
The rule is that the higher is the time frame of the range, the stronger is the market equilibrium.
Above, I have 3 different charts:
USDJPY on a daily time frame, EURJPY on a 4H and GBPUSD on 15 minutes.
All the pairs found an equilibrium in horizontal ranges.
An equilibrium on USDJPY will signify intra week or even intra month balance,
while on EURJPY it will mean intraday/intra week balance.
On GBPUSD, it will signify intraday equilibrium.
Market equilibrium can not last forever.
Fundamentals news and changing market conditions, make the market participants constantly reassess a fair value of an asset.
A violation of the range and a breakout of one of its boundaries will be a trigger of an occurrence of an imbalance .
A bullish violation of the upper boundary of the range will signify a buying imbalance and a highly probable rise to the new highs.
While a bearish violation of the lower boundary of the range will mean a selling imbalance and a highly probable fall to the new lows.
Please, study how GBPCHF was moving for a week on an hourly time frame.
The periods of balance were changed by the periods of bullish or bearish imbalances, that found a new equilibrium on higher/lower price levels.
Understanding of basic principles of supply and demand in trading is essential for profitable trading smart money concepts.
Learn to recognize the periods of imbalance and equilibrium.
It will provide you the edge in understanding and trading any forex pair.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
( HANZO Gold Protocol ) Bearish Reversal DetectedTime Frame: 30-Minute Warfare
Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout
🩸Bearish Reversal - 4240
🆚 Reasons To Enter The path
————
➕ Volume Engaged & Confirmed
➕ Time Zone Aligned (London / NY)
➕ Liquidity Cleared Below
➕ Cluster Shield Active
➕ Delta Shift Showing Buyer Control
➕ Reversal Formation Detected
➕ Price Below POC – Ready for Retrace
➕ Entry Prepared with Zero Emotion
Gold: First signs of a correction after a strong rallyHi traders and investors!
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis (IA) concept.
For the past nine weeks, gold has been flying upward — and now we’re starting to see signs of a pause in growth or even the beginning of a correction.
Friday’s candle showed very high volume, and this volume came from the seller side.
A similar, though smaller, volume was seen on August 8.
This could indicate that we may enter a correction or sideways phase.
The range of the most recent buyer initiative on the daily timeframe is quite wide.
Yesterday, the price came close to the 50% level of that initiative, but didn’t quite reach it.
The key levels to watch for potential buys are:
50% level of the buyer initiative — 4162,
upper boundary of the previous buyer initiative — 4059.
By the way, on the weekly timeframe, last week’s trading volume was the highest since March 2022.
All these signs point to a possible pause in growth.
Wishing you profitable trades!
COULD GOLD (XAU/USD) BOUNCE TO THE UPSIDE OR DROP?GOLD (XAUUSD) is currently being held by a strong support trend line which is is struggling to breakthrough.. however, it is currently in a new downtrend and could continue to fall to the downside.
If The support trendline has been broken, this will be a great sell opportunity.. if it struggles to break, then it will be a great buy opportunity. Keep an eye!






















