chartwatchers

PRO
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About me "It is much easier to watch a few than many." J. Livermore For analysis I use candlestick patterns, chart patterns, indicators, cycles, sentiment. I’m a trader on the gold market since 2004. I’m watching 5 minutes/1 hour / 4 hour / daily / weekly chart
Joined Hungary ArpiKerenyi
"Markets are never wrong – opinions often are." Jesse Livermore / I called the bottom of oil on 25.02.2016 here at Tradingview.com
Markets Allocation
14 % stocks 9 % forex 1 % indices 77 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
FX:XAUUSD 27% | 149 USOIL 15% | 85 DXY 6% | 35 OANDA:XAUUSD 6% | 35
chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, D, Short ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - Below the 200 SMA
279 2 17
XAUUSD, D Short
GOLD - Below the 200 SMA

This is not a new short call. It's just the follow through for those who are still holding the short positions. Gold's year end move will depend on the dollar. If the dollar can print its final rally then we drop to 1200. If not we just rally above the 200 SMA and the new intermediate cycle can start. I saw many fancy newsletter writers this week calling for a ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO EURUSD, D, Short ,
EURUSD: EurUsd - Shoulder Head Shoulder Repeat
371 1 20
EURUSD, D Short
EurUsd - Shoulder Head Shoulder Repeat

This idea is a follow through on the previous 2 idea: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/LLCSiYYx-EurUsd-A-plan-for-October/ and https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/RoVo14P2-EurUsd-Sell-the-breakout/ So this is not a new call for short it's just an update for those who are still holding the shorts from 1.1980. The first H&S pattern had broken down on ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, D, Short ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - Now or never
6271 104 75
XAUUSD, D Short
GOLD - Now or never

It was a busy Friday and Saturday on the markets. My bets are still on the gold shorts - at least for one more week... While everyone was waiting for the results of the tax bill gold bounced USD dropped hard on Friday. https://www.tradingview.com/x/MSN36ekX/ Dec.1. Michael Flynn pleads guilty to making false statements to FBI about conversations with Russian ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO EURUSD, D, Short ,
EURUSD: EurUsd - Sell the breakout
3623 19 48
EURUSD, D Short
EurUsd - Sell the breakout

Central Bank tricks in the currency war.. Though they've ruined the H&S pattern - most probably too many traders were trading it - I still think this is one of those trend line breaks and breakouts which is not going to work. Why ? The water is wet, the grass is green. The intermediate cycle is not finished yet. The H&S pattern is invalidated : so I'm going to ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, D, Short ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - Getting close
9281 124 69
XAUUSD, D Short
GOLD - Getting close

All I can say : we are almost there. Gold bounced off the 200 EMA today again. While the dollar was dropping hard today https://www.tradingview.com/x/oMjICH9P/ gold just printed a weak bounce . It's the 4th bounce from the 200 EMA in 5 weeks. So while many people think it's bottoming in a double , triple , quadruple bottom, I don't think it's bottoming. It ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, D, Short ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - Weekly TOP HIT 40 (K)
2091 4 34
XAUUSD, D Short
GOLD - Weekly TOP HIT 40 (K)

We were witnesses of a fat finger event on Friday. Someone sold 40.000 gold contract - around 4.000.000 ounces of gold - in one amount. Though I'm in the short side I have to say it was a nasty move again. These banksters are doing whatever they want. On Thursday the chart started to look like range which is breaking out. By the close of Friday all hopes of bulls ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO NATGASUSD, D, Long ,
NATGASUSD: NatGas - NutGas
7572 346 60
NATGASUSD, D Long
NatGas - NutGas

In my last idea I sugggested try to get in the trade somehow because the consolidation is over sooner or later and we are breaking out. Though we couldn't catch the exact bottom and the position got risky as we broke down of the range all who were able to hold through the panic are in profit today. There was an undercut low with a false breakdown of the range but ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO BTCUSD, D, Short ,
BTCUSD: BTCUSD - Short for a bit of a coin
6558 21 67
BTCUSD, D Short
BTCUSD - Short for a bit of a coin

I've been watching Bitcoin for a while . The cycle analysis was working Bitcoin's last 2 drop into the daily cycle low. This time I'm going to publish it. After yesterday's bearish pinbar we have the follow through and the daily swing as we broke below yesterday's low. The RSI is printing bearish divergence, and the MACD is crossing over at extreme levels. I'm ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO USOIL, D, Short ,
USOIL: OIL - Short 4 4 Bucks
4342 37 52
USOIL, D Short
OIL - Short 4 4 Bucks

Though oil is quite bullish here I'm playing for a 4$ (maybe 5$) drop ( not 44!!!) on my private account for a testback of the blue trendline or the 50 SMA. The RSI is printing a divergence and I think when the dollar is printing it's last bounce in the following weeks that will affect oil also, so it can drop into its daily cycle low. It's not a "Let's bet the ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, D, Short ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - No title
6314 82 66
XAUUSD, D Short
GOLD - No title

I noticed that the ideas with best titles are simply not working or start to work only weeks later. So this time there will be no title and hopefully I can break this rule... Just as I expected in the previous ideas gold is trying to test back the last DCL's level at 1260,5$. In the meanwhile the 200 SMA is almost at the same level (1261,4$) I think today ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, 60, Short ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - Failed attempts
4173 49 56
XAUUSD, 60 Short
GOLD - Failed attempts

The 100 MA was important in gold's previous and prior daily decline. Every failed attempt to break and hold above this moving average resulted a break below the previous low. It seems price is not able to stay above the 100 MA so the chance is high again to break below the previous low at 1264. Why is this important? If we break below 1264 the chance is high we ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO USDJPY, 480, Long ,
USDJPY: USDJPY - The resistance of 2017
1425 5 31
USDJPY, 480 Long
USDJPY - The resistance of 2017

Last week we've arrived to an important resistance level at 114,5. This level is the 2017 multi month resistance. It took the first quarter to break below it and was tested back again and again in this year. We broke the 8 hrs chart up trend line yesterday. If the break above 114,5 was allowed to happen price needs to recover above the blue trendline in the ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO EURUSD, 240, Short ,
EURUSD: EurUsd - Bear flag
1480 8 35
EURUSD, 240 Short
EurUsd - Bear flag

We are printing a bear flag on the hourly and 4hrs chart. The story hasn't changed too much. The giant head and shoulders broke down. We tested back the neckline and heading to the target prices. I'm waiting for an acceleration in the next 2 weeks. We need to wake up the bears from the hibernation . I would like to see ideas here in TV talking about parity and ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO USDJPY, D, Long ,
USDJPY: USDJPY - Trendline break
2445 31 45
USDJPY, D Long
USDJPY - Trendline break

I know many of you are watching UJ when trading gold... There's a very important pattern developing on the UJ UJ chart. After a 7 months consolidation ( downtrend in a down channel) we had a character change. Price didn't turn down immediately in a V shaped form as did before. It sticked to the trendline an started to crawl along it. I think the Bank Of Japan ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO UGAZ, D, Long ,
UGAZ: UGAZ - Who wants to be a millionaire?
7069 152 78
UGAZ, D Long
UGAZ - Who wants to be a millionaire?

I want to post it before market close so this is going to be short. If today the bottom is in by the end of next week today's UGAZ position can be in 50% profit. We are printing all time record volume. In the past all time record volumes often were the sign of the bottom and a big rally. The facts: 2016.05.31 - Price rallied from 20 to 51$. 2016.11.08 - Price ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO NATGASUSD, D, Long ,
NATGASUSD: NatGas - Sun of the Beach
1776 11 38
NATGASUSD, D Long
NatGas - Sun of the Beach

I think most of you who were trading Natty in the last few months had mentioned the title at least once or twice. It's toying with us. So there are 2 options : 1. Get out and find some other vehicle. 2. Try to trade it somehow because the consolidation will be over sooner or later. Those who follow me for a while know which pill I have chosen. At the last NatGas ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO EURUSD, 15,
EURUSD: EurUsd - The Big Picture
1927 23 51
EURUSD, 15
EurUsd - The Big Picture

Most of the retail traders are just short term traders: watching only the 5 minutes and 30 minutes chart. What is happening in EurUsd is a typical example why traders should never forget about the Big Picture. Trading based only on the 5 minutes and 1 Hour chart without watching the daily and the weekly chart is a guarantee of a blown up account. The 30 min chart ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, D, Short ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - Weak bull
3725 23 36
XAUUSD, D Short
GOLD - Weak bull

After the week of the bull I can see only a weak bull. It seems we topped in our 3rd daily cycle on day 6. I would've liked to see yesterday's close below Friday's low (1293,5) for a bearish engulfing close but all we got a daily swing high. Price bounced as I posted in the hourly chart update but in the night we gave back all of the gains : Asia was ...

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Gold/U.S. Dollar
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