chartwatchers

chartwatchers Updated 

After a 81 bar long daily cycle we printed the DCL on the 02.28. The candle of the DCL was a key reversal also: We saw how well worked the key reversal during the daily cycle decline a few days ago. I expect the same now, just the other direction: a rally is coming for 20-25 days before we start the move down into the next daily cycle low. Price is above...

chartwatchers Updated 

I will try a long trade with a stop below today's low. We are on day 9 in this daily cycle decline. The hourly is showing signs of a bottoming process. Every breakdown of the previous low is bought back without producing a waterfall decline. Lot of gold guru is talking about a longer decline from here, but I don't see that happening. I will post a daily idea...

chartwatchers Updated 

I don't have a working cycle count in NatGas right now as I haven't traded it since it topped earlier last year. This is a falling knife. 2 days ago we lost 3.300. That was the 2021.02.18 top and the Fibonacci 78,6% retracement level. As we broke below that level I see nothing until 2.442 and 2.267. If anyone wants to long this needs to wait at least a...

chartwatchers Updated 

After we tried to play the bounce , now I'm back to the original idea. The daily cycle decline can but almost never lasts for only 2 days. After the 2 red candles what was printed last Thursday and Friday the decline slowed down but not finished yet. The next target where the daily cycle low can be printed is at the 38,2% FIB retracement (1829$) or at 1850$...

chartwatchers Updated 

I don't think the DCL is printed yet, but we are finding support at 1860-61. I see a good opportunity here for a fake rally before the final daily bottom is printed at 1829$. We will see what the daily close will look like, but right now the hourly is showing a double bottom what is a beloved pattern of many traders who are waiting for new highs in gold. I will...

chartwatchers Updated 

In the middle of October I suggested to short the dollar in this post: Unfortunatley didn't have time for an idea to post. A few days ago I closed the short positions , and now I think it's very possible the dollar will print a rally in the following days. The FED's rate hiking cycle pushed the dollar above 114 in the summer, but in October the market started...

chartwatchers Updated 

One vehicle how you can short or long the dollar is the USDHUF. The USDHUF mirrors the DXY moves pretty well. Though watching the FIB retracement we are at no man's land : the Fibonacci 61,8% is still 10 HUF away: we have important levels at 354.738, 352.993, and 351.248. I don't think price will break these levels at the first try. If we can bounce from...

chartwatchers Updated 

Yesterday we printed a key reversal with a daily minimum close. You might don't want to short this, but one thing is sure : on day 64 with a key reversal you don't want to be long.... The trendline is broken , and we just closed below the 10 EMA: What's next? The 5 and 6 day RSi will get oversold. It's not a big news because we are almost...

chartwatchers Updated 

After testing the 2021.06.01 pivot at 1916 gold printed daily swing high today. The daily cycle peaked on day 50. More than enough , it was an extremely long daily cycle. No question we are moving into the daily cycle low where I want to be long again to test the all time highs. What to expect during this decline? First of all I want to see the 4...

chartwatchers Updated 

Eurusd is froming a key reversal today. We have to wait for the daily close, and even after the daily close this can be easily reversed by tomorrow, it's possible we will be having the pullback to the 200 SMA in the following days. If this plays out the minimum where price drops is the 50 EMA at 1.060 . This price level is also the 23,6% FIB retracement. If...

chartwatchers Updated 

I would like to share what I see regarding Bitcoin. I'm not trading it right now but my system is is still showing a sharp decline below 10.000 and below 5.000 in the following weeks. Last week we finished printing a symmetric triangle what broke down yesterday. The symmetric triangle is a continuation pattern , I highlighted the target price what is not funny at...

chartwatchers Updated 

A crash is coming in the stock market in the following days: probably this week or maybe next week. The last intermediate cycle lasted for 80 bars and ended on the 16.06.2022. The new intermediate cycle rallied to the 200 SMA then dropped into the DCL on the 9th Sept. The new daily cycle is only on day 14 - we are in this daily cycle - and it is close to the...

chartwatchers Updated 

The Virus had set the stock cycle quite accurate in the last 2 years. It seems we have 2 intermediate cycle low in a year: 1. one of them is very severe and it comes at the beginning of the year ( highlighted by red arrow) This is also a yearly low and drops close to the previous year's normal ICL 2020.03.23. 2021.03.05. 2022.01.24. 2. the other one is "just"...

chartwatchers Updated 

The Virus had set the stock cycle quite accurate in the last 2 years. It seems we have 2 intermediate cycle low in a year: 1. one of them is very severe and it comes at the beginning of the year ( highlighted by red arrow) This is also a yearly low and drops close to the previous year's normal ICL 2020.03.23. 2021.03. 05 . 2022. 01 .24. 2. the other one is...

chartwatchers Updated 

A short summary what's happening in the stock market - as I haven't posted for a while. 2021.10.04. - an intermediate low was printed 2021.10.04-2021.11.22 we had our first daily cycle : it topped at 16.775 2021.12.03 first daily cycle low in this intermediate cycle at 15.550 So right now we are in the second daily cycle in this IC . The challenge is to break...

chartwatchers Updated 

1. Timing. If this is the 2nd daily cycle of this intermediate cycle then we are on day 54. If we are still in the first it's day 71... The cycle will not let the price to drop too much from here maximum 1-2 day. 2. Bollinger bands. Price dropped so much that it closed out of the Bollinger bands: We can't stay out of the BB... So price will need to bounce...

chartwatchers

The daily chart of the EurUsd is clearly in a symmetric triangle. As the stock market is trying to correct in the insane money printing the FED will not have too much chance after the last FOMC meeting's comments - They will reduce their asset purchases quicker than anticipated- than weaken the dollar. Today at the trendline they have a very good chance to bounce...

chartwatchers Updated 

On the daily chart's bull flag silver dropped enough to tag the lower trendline. In yesterday's trading price tagged it and today it's bouncing hard. When we break 28$ silver will rally to attack the 30 $ level again. I think this summer we finally break out of the ascending triangle: