chartwatchers

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About me "It is much easier to watch a few than many." J. Livermore For analysis I use candlestick patterns, chart patterns, indicators, cycles, sentiment. I’m a trader on the gold market since 2004. I’m watching 5 minutes/1 hour / 4 hour / daily / weekly chart
Joined Hungary ArpiKerenyi
"Markets are never wrong – opinions often are." Jesse Livermore / I called the bottom of oil on 25.02.2016 here at Tradingview.com
Markets Allocation
13 % stocks 8 % forex 1 % indices 78 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
XAUUSD 31% | 139 USOIL 18% | 82 DXY 6% | 30 NGAS 5% | 24
chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO USOIL, 60, Long ,
USOIL: OIL - Fourtynine
1554 14 40
USOIL, 60 Long
OIL - Fourtynine

I have the same feeling as at 49$... Every breakdown is bought at 49$ again and again on high volume. We must notice the divergencies in every indicator: RSI, MACD, TSI... General stock markets are in a rally mode : there is no reason for oil to fall... So I'm buying here. New long entry : OIL US Crude July Manage position size. I'm not going to stop this ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, 60, Short ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - Bull flag or Bull trap?
5901 51 79
XAUUSD, 60 Short
GOLD - Bull flag or Bull trap?

We are forming a bull-flag-like formation on the hourly and 4hrs chart. During the last month we had a lot of bull flags which broke to the upside. The pattern we are printing now is bigger than the previous ones. So I'm convinced this is not a bull flag , this is a topping pattern. We just need more and more bulls to chase the price in the hope of breaking above ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XLE, D, Long ,
XLE: XLE /ERX - Possible long term bottom
1810 15 34
XLE, D Long
XLE /ERX - Possible long term bottom

We possibly forming a longer term bottom in XLE (ERX is the 3x ETF for XLE). Yesterday I wasn't able to post the chart I just posted below the last oil chart: I'm going to enter into ERX at the close. XLE and ERX likes to bottom with a beartrap. When RSI leaves oversold territory it's usually a good sign we are bottoming. In this case we might be printing a ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO USOIL, D, Short ,
USOIL: OIL - Key reversal and a follow through
6183 46 95
USOIL, D Short
OIL - Key reversal and a follow through

After Wednesday's key reversal oil tried to bounce on Thursday with no success. Price closed near to the lows. Today we have a lower low again. The minimum retracement we must have now is the 10 EMA at 52.1$. That level is the FIBO 23.6% level also so today or tomorrow the 10 EMA will catch up price. As I mentioned in the previous idea without the clear panic ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, 60, Short ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - Over the top
3826 34 76
XAUUSD, 60 Short
GOLD - Over the top

I'm calling gold's intermediate top today at 1289$. We were riding gold's last 2 daily cycles almost perfectly. I missed the last 20$ but I think we made a good money on our longs. Time to join the bear side again. I'm planning to go to 30-35% margin impact on my account with this gold short. But right now I will enter only the 30% of this 30-35%. So the margin ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO USOIL, 60, Short ,
USOIL: OIL - Cheated panic selling
2458 20 65
USOIL, 60 Short
OIL - Cheated panic selling

Oil had rallied out hard from the 47$ level. The bad news : we might have printed the ICL. The good news : without the panic selling it will be hard to run to new highs in the first daily cycle. The panic selling is a necessary ingredient of an intermediate cycle. Powers can stop it but there are always consequencies. A good panic selling is always washing out ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO USOIL, D, Short ,
USOIL: OIL - Failed resuscitation
6191 40 53
USOIL, D Short
OIL - Failed resuscitation

Just as I posted in my last private idea powers are fighting tooth and nails against this decline. We have a clear level where they are trying to prevent oil from further falling: 47$. But after that 3 month of never ending consolidation it's not possible. They will need to change their advisors to manipulate this market successfully because it's going to fall ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, 60, Long ,
XAUUSD: Gold - Pennant's target price
8555 71 112
XAUUSD, 60 Long
Gold - Pennant's target price

LONG FOLLOW THROUGH IDEA I don't suggest to enter here I suggest to hold long positions a bit more. I gave my blessing to all who asked me and closed the longs today. It was a 50$ rally in a week so time to collect some money from the table. Actually I don't think the rally is over. The dollar hasn't finished its decline and stocks are breaking down just as I ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, 60, Long ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - Pennant
4342 38 84
XAUUSD, 60 Long
GOLD - Pennant

Looks like gold is forming a pennant after the FOMC's bounce. We needed to have one consolidation day before moving higher. I think today we will get the next leg up.. MACD seems to be crossing over above 0 level, TSI also crossing up at 0 level. RSI couldn't even get oversold... Gold looks strong to me this was all the correction we got. LONG follow through ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO DXY, D, Short ,
DXY: DXY - Right straight punch
1810 12 46
DXY, D Short
DXY - Right straight punch

Right shoulder, right straight punch. Notice how easily we erase 2-3 days rally in one day. And this time we successfully closed below both the 10 EMA and 20 EMA. And we couldn't run to new highs. Just as I marked in the RATEvolution post : the left shoulder's and the head's trend is much steeper than the right shoulder's trend. It means to me an "increase of ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO EURUSD, D, Long ,
EURUSD: EurUsd - Trendline back test
1088 4 34
EURUSD, D Long
EurUsd - Trendline back test

It's not exactly playing out how I anticipated in the King's order idea. At the end of the week we got the 2 green candles after a back test of the trendline. The perfect entry was at the trendline but our last Friday or Monday entry is also in green. We are on day 5. Indicators The 10 and 20 EMA is crossing over soon and we successfully closed above the 50 EMA ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO GDX, D, Long ,
GDX: GDX - Start of a new daily cycle
1158 8 28
GDX, D Long
GDX - Start of a new daily cycle

I see a decent chance that miners are also printing a cycle low here. We have a swing low. RSI is leaving overbought, TSI is crossing up, MACD is turning up. Miners are only in the first daily cycle of this intermediate cycle. This second daily cycle will tell where we are in this intermediate cycle. Will there be a higher high, or just a dead cat bounce? If the ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, 240, Long ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - Call of the cycle low
4423 38 81
XAUUSD, 240 Long
GOLD - Call of the cycle low

Though we don't have a breakout of the channel yet (red trendlines) I will call the the 2nd daily cycle low here. We had 2 entries : the first at 1218 and the second today at 1199$.( I will use the entry of the pullback not the troll indicated entry what I have on my account) The bounce seem to be holding by the close. MACD had crossed over at extreme levels, ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, 60, Long ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - Buying at previous support
5354 56 54
XAUUSD, 60 Long
GOLD - Buying at previous support

As we are entering into the support area I'm buying gold here. I'm not sure we can tag the channel's bottom. All the daily ,4hrs and hourly charts are oversold enough to have the next bounce. I will be adding if we break out of the channel.

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, 60, Long ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - Possible flag
3749 16 48
XAUUSD, 60 Long
GOLD - Possible flag

It seems to me gold is flagging. I will try to buy the breakout. One could start a smaller positionn when 7hrs RSI gets oversold and add to the position if we break out. The breakout will be confirmed when we have a significant close above the blue trendline. I highlighted by a green candle. I don't suggest a heavy position entry here as we might test 1215 at ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO GDXJ, D, Long ,
GDXJ: GDXJ - 61.8% pullback
1764 17 35
GDXJ, D Long
GDXJ - 61.8% pullback

We almost had a 61.8% pullback in GDXJ after turning down from the 200 MA. If we are are in an uptrend price should turn after a 61.8% pullback. It's still healthy. The Slow Stochastic tagged the oversold levels and ready to turn higher to the overbought territory. RSI is also leaving the oversold levels. The other sign I like very much is the 3x ETF, JNUG's ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO EURUSD, D, Long ,
EURUSD: EurUsd - The King's order
1402 4 35
EURUSD, D Long
EurUsd - The King's order

This call will be based on the previous DXY - RATEvolution call. New King. New orders. New rules. It was very weird that at the State of the Union address Trump didn't mention the strong dollar as a problem. There's no need to talk about it if you know an intervention is coming ... I think we witnessed an intervention on Friday. At the Euro Futures chart we had a ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO DXY, D, Short ,
DXY: Dollar Index - RATEvolution
1903 16 47
DXY, D Short
Dollar Index - RATEvolution

March interest rate hike is factored into the markets. Again : March interest rate hike is factored into the markets. As most of the instruments I'm watching depends a lot of the dollar : so I always keep my eye on the buck. This time I'm pretty sure the dollar is finally ready to roll over and break down it's head&shoulder pattern. Most of the investors are ...

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