chartwatchers

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About me "It is much easier to watch a few than many." J. Livermore For analysis I use candlestick patterns, chart patterns, indicators, cycles, sentiment. I’m a trader on the gold market since 2004. I’m watching 5 minutes/1 hour / 4 hour / daily / weekly chart
Joined Hungary ArpiKerenyi
"Markets are never wrong – opinions often are." Jesse Livermore / I called the bottom of oil on 25.02.2016 here at Tradingview.com
Markets Allocation
14 % stocks 8 % forex 1 % indices 77 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
FX:XAUUSD 28% | 149 USOIL 16% | 85 DXY 6% | 35 OANDA:XAUUSD 5% | 31
chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, D, Short ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - Weak bull
812 9 18
XAUUSD, D Short
GOLD - Weak bull

After the week of the bull I can see only a weak bull. It seems we topped in our 3rd daily cycle on day 6. I would've liked to see yesterday's close below Friday's low (1293,5) for a bearish engulfing close but all we got a daily swing high. Price bounced as I posted in the hourly chart update but in the night we gave back all of the gains : Asia was ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, 60, Short ,
XAUUSD: GOLD -  Chartwatching on the hourly
2632 38 43
XAUUSD, 60 Short
GOLD - Chartwatching on the hourly

Gold took a big hit today. I just want to wait for the daily close before updating on the daily chart. I didn't like how we broke out of the flag last week. It was not the typical breakout when price is running higher 20$ the next day. It was just a weak breakout: a back test of the flag, a few more hours of a range and we needed to wait for a bounce until ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, 240,
XAUUSD: GOLD - Mid Week Update
4244 33 59
XAUUSD, 240
GOLD - Mid Week Update

We are nearing to the weekend. This week really turned out to be the week of the bull. We are near to 40$ profit this morning. Resistance levels are approaching. 1. First the target price counted from the right translated double bottom pattern at 1304$. ( The right translated pattern will be important later what I'm doing and why. 2. Later the 200 SMA on the 4hrs ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, D, Long ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - The week of the bull
4193 52 69
XAUUSD, D Long
GOLD - The week of the bull

Our bottom is confirmed by today's swing. After a shallow pullback on Sunday night price bounced higher. Most of the day was spent by printing a flag/ range on the hourly chart and we closed near to the daily top. What happened exactly? After the first 2 daily cycles we printed a DCL last Friday and bounced from the 100 MA almost tagging the triangle trendline ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, D, Long ,
XAUUSD: GOLD -  The route to the DCL
1763 24 48
XAUUSD, D Long
GOLD - The route to the DCL

We printed the DCL today. Before posting a detailed gold update I just want to go through how fantastically worked the Fibonacci on this way down. 1. First we broken down the lower trendline of the uptrend channel (1321$). This level was the FIBO 23,6% retracement also. Notice how we spent 3 days to break down this FIBO level on the 13-14-15th Sept. 2. The next ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO USDJPY, D, Short ,
USDJPY: UsdJpy - Above the trendline
491 4 17
USDJPY, D Short
UsdJpy - Above the trendline

This call is mostly based on the EurUsd call. We printed a bearish pinbar today. I think the dollar will weaken in the next few days so UJ needs to drop. MACD is crossing over ahead of the TSI . We might just test back the 200 EMA or maybe testing back the 108-109 zone. 111 and 108-109 levels will be important for the gold rally also. We've broken above the ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO EURUSD, D, Long ,
EURUSD: EurUsd - A plan for October
2147 12 71
EURUSD, D Long
EurUsd - A plan for October

I will start the updates with the currencies today. In the gold idea I will refer to many things I mention here. I was watching closely the EurUsd and the USDJPY today around the NFP news. The EurUsd was not able to break the pattern's neckline at or after the news and it bounced. I still think the intermediate decline is not finished yet. The right translated ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, D, Long ,
XAUUSD: The two side of the GOLD coin
4964 76 77
XAUUSD, D Long
The two side of the GOLD coin

I'm quite sure we printed the DCL today at 1278$. If this intermediate bull is still intact then I would give a chance to trade it based on EW... It's a risky trade we might stop out immediately in the night or tomorrow, but if it works we might a have a few days to run and test back the previous high. If we stop out I will publish immediately a short trade idea ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, W, Short ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - Weekly overview
3650 26 44
XAUUSD, W Short
GOLD - Weekly overview

The weekly chart also suggesting we are heading down into the DCL. In most of the cases the DCL is printed at or below the 10 EMA (Weekly chart!)and we always have minimum 2 red candles. Especially after the Bollinger band crash on the weekly chart... I highlighted the previous DCLs by red arrows on the chart. The DCL decline lasts for minimum 2 weeks. So the ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, 240, Short ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - North Korean Games
4193 57 50
XAUUSD, 240 Short
GOLD - North Korean Games

Crazy dictator or Mastermind ? Foolish blackmailer or defender of his nation? I leave this question open : time will tell. We don't know it right now, but we have to trade it. I always wonder why people are betting on a nuclear holocaust. I do not think all those who bought gold at 1350-60 in the hope of 1.400 and 1.500 in a week have asked themselves: is there ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, D,
XAUUSD: GOLD - DCL in progress
7176 111 69
XAUUSD, D
GOLD - DCL in progress

I set this idea as neutral because I don't suggest to do anything right now. If you are short you don't have to do anything because I think it's going lower. If you are at the sidelines you don't have to do anything because it's too late to go short now, and too early to go long ... If you are long I suggest to ask one of the contrarians below my previous post is ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO DXY, W, Long ,
DXY: DXY - Long time ago in a chart not so far away...
1272 5 45
DXY, W Long
DXY - Long time ago in a chart not so far away...

I would like to start this idea with an idea I posted nearly a year ago: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DXY/BiQ2drSN-DXY-Possible-megaphone-topping-pattern/ Most of us here are short term traders. Some are thinking in hours , some in days and a few in weeks. The funds and banks are playing in months and years. "It is no trick at all to be right on the market. ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, 60, Short ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - Hourly update
2406 19 55
XAUUSD, 60 Short
GOLD - Hourly update

I will update gold on the daily basis later today. Haven't decided to post a public or private idea. On the hourly chart the pullback seems to be done. The dip buyers have arrived in the morning . Right now we are tagging the 200 SMA and the head & shoulders pattern's neckline. The RSI is near to extremely overbought , MACD seems to want to stay in the negative ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO EURUSD, D, Short ,
EURUSD: EurUsd - Intermediate decline
3276 36 69
EURUSD, D Short
EurUsd - Intermediate decline

EurUsd is due for its intermediate decline in the following days/weeks. It will become obvious for everyone once the red trendline is broken. I'm waiting for the tag of 1.1428 ( FIBO 38,2%) and maybe 1.1221 (FIBO 50%). If EurUsd is starting a new multi year bull market we will need to tag the 100 and 200 EMA on the way up again and again.

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, D, Short ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - Selling the pullback
9784 174 67
XAUUSD, D Short
GOLD - Selling the pullback

After yesterday's night drop the hourly chart's RSI became enough overbought to call for a pullback. Before breaking out of the multi month consolidation the chart printed a coil. The breakout of the coil is usually tricky: after a convincing breakout price reverses and heading much lower... After the breakout - even Kim launched a missile over Japan - we just ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, 60, Short ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - Out of time
8858 208 58
XAUUSD, 60 Short
GOLD - Out of time

We are simply running out of time for breaking above 1300$. So there are 2 possibilities: 1. We will be in a long consolidation till the middle or end of September to reset the bullish sentiment. or 2. we have a hell of a decline in the next 2 weeks. I know it would be nice to believe that Jackson Hole will bring the breakout above 1300$. But... Yellen will need ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO DXY, 480, Long ,
DXY: US Dollar Index - Back into the channel
1318 9 37
DXY, 480 Long
US Dollar Index - Back into the channel

Yesterday it looked like DXY has broken down from the channel (bear flag on the daily chart). Today until the middle of the day it seemed we are going to have the perfect back test of the channel. But in the last couple of hours price has broken back into the channel again... I'm looking at this rally and break back into the channel as a very bullish sign. Price ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, D, Short ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - Falling stars
4699 54 60
XAUUSD, D Short
GOLD - Falling stars

... and here is our bounce on the daily chart. The dip buyers have arrived and they are buying. I highlighted 5 falling stars on the daily chart at daily cycle tops where we got the next day/days a convincing bounce but on the second or third day the drop always arrived... Sometimes the drop arrives on the same day, sometimes only the next day. But it's coming. ...

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