About me"It is much easier to watch a few than many." J. Livermore
For analysis I use candlestick patterns, chart patterns, indicators, cycles, sentiment.
I’m a trader on the gold market since 2004. I’m watching 5 minutes/1 hour / 4 hour / daily / weekly chart
"Never catch a falling knife." - Pick it up from the ground when it's already lying.
This is what I'm going to do here.
After the two-week frustrating bottoming pattern it looks like oil is starting a rally today.
OPEC meeting finished today though there is no production cut the chart is showing bullish signs:
-The trendline is broken ...
I will enter an 50% position here in the SPX .
Only 50% because there is still a chance it's going to drop down to the 100 MA / 100 EMA at around 2590- 2600 on the weekly chart. If we tag 2600 I will enter the other 50%.
I don't think the bull is over but it's the last serious decline before we enter the parabolic ...
There's a serious problem with the dollar. It stopped acting as safe heaven.
Stocks are dropping and the the USD can't break the small reistances even.
22 days passed since the last intermediate bottom and the buck was not able to break the resistance at 96.17. Today we are rolling over again.
Now it looks like a long ...
A few important things are happening in the markets this morning.
In gold we are breaking out of the triangle. Before anyone would try to short this -of course it's always possible that we drop back into the triangle 5 minutes after this post - I would would warn that most probably we are going to get a very powerful move this week.
During the summer decline we ...
The bubble bursted but the worst thing still ahead of us.
What I see here is a series of lower lows, 50 and 200 SMA crossover, 100 and 200 SMA crossover. It's just waiting for the massacre , waiting for a recognition phase where longs have to realize that only in a fantasy land possible to create a currency without GDP behind it.
It's getting choked. First - in ...
In 2017 January I called the breakdown of the giant flag in the USDCAD.
We have a similar situation here. After the previous flag breakdown - June 2017- price was trending in a channel. We had 2 false breakdowns from the channel. Before the last one price tried to recover above the ...
Though AUDUSD is still in the down channel it's started to form divergences.
Price dropped below 0,71 but was not able to tag the channel's bottom. I'm afraid it can't drop to 0,7 so I'm starting an initial position (50%) . If it drops to 0,7 I will add the other 50% if not I just trade the bounce with a 50% margin impact.
If the SPX was going to collapse in the next few days the place where your money should be is in VIX. Yes it rallied 15% today but when volatility really comes in it's an easy double from here . And we need just one or 2 days for that....
Just like this year February.
In a previous idea I already suggested to long EurUsd .
It's still forming the basing pattern after the 2018 drop. Today we arrived to an important support zone again at 1.1514.
If you watch the chart carefully we have two H&S pattern . The first one formed after the 2017 EURUSD rally ...
UJ had arrived to the same resistance (114) what stopped its rally in the last 2 years.
It took nearly 6 months this time to rally from the prior bottom to 114.
Today we have a swing on the daily chart ( a drop below yesterday's daily low)
RSI leaving oversold , MACD is nearing to levels where it turned down : it's time to ...
Though we are still in the range it seems the ping-pong game finished.
When you choose gold market to trade you need to know it is a rigged market : everything evolved here is to fleece human retail traders.
The last few days are a perfect example how these entities are influencing the gold market.
On the 18th Aug gold topped at 14:00 and entered into a normal ...
Last week Tuesday commercial long contracts were 87538, short contracts on the same day were 86121.
At the same time large speculators short contracts jumped from 7158 to 16598.
This is a rare moment when most of the commercials think there is no need to hedge production and hedge funds became very convinced silver is going lower.
I will be trading this with the ...
The call is to drop 300 points by the 20th of September.
I was waiting for this day to drop below the previous day's low.
As of today by the close we completed a swing :
It took almost 7 months to break above the previous high(2877). The rally started on the 9thFebruay and we broke out on the 27th of August. We used up too ...
After 2 green days we got our red candle day today.
It's still nothing to worry about this drop it's normal at the beginning of a new intermediate cycle.
1. We tested back the down trendline with this drop.
2. 1212-14 was an important zone on the hourly chart. It took 25 days to break down this zone
and produce the final ...
What a bear trap. I think nobody was waiting for today's move after yesterday's selloff.
We are going to close above the 10 EMA - what we lost yesterday - and we broke the down trendline...
Before anyone would start to short it I have to say the rally is just starting.
While all the indicators were showing divergences: the hysteria broke down price from the ...
Watching the year 2018 the EurUsd is looking like a perfect short trade.
It topped in the first quarter of 2018 like a descending triangle. The triangle broke down and we reached not just the counted target price but we also break below the 200 SMA which is one important sign of a starting bear market...
This big rally from 1.0345 to 1.2558 and the last few weeks ...
For those who doesn't want to test their deathwish with JNUG here is GDXJ the unleveraged fund of the junior miners.
As we are getting close to the end of this trading day a bullish harami is forming on the daily chart.
As I'm typing this gold is just breaking a out on the hourly chart.
... and forming a swing on the daily ...
The volume in the 3x leveraged junior miner fund jumped in the last few days.
We had a capitulation type of volume price dropped hard.
After today's powerful start bears tried to take control but it was enough only to take out the stops of those who entered today. The opening gap was not filled.
It seems to me the bottom ...