chartwatchers

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About me "It is much easier to watch a few than many." J. Livermore For analysis I use candlestick patterns, chart patterns, indicators, cycles, sentiment. I’m a trader on the gold market since 2004. I’m watching 5 minutes/1 hour / 4 hour / daily / weekly chart
Joined Hungary ArpiKerenyi
"Markets are never wrong – opinions often are." Jesse Livermore / I called the bottom of oil on 25.02.2016 here at Tradingview.com
Markets Allocation
15 % stocks 8 % forex 1 % indices 77 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
XAUUSD 29% | 146 USOIL 17% | 85 DXY 6% | 31 NGAS 4% | 24
chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, 60, Short ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - Getting close to the final washout
14766 140 123
XAUUSD, 60 Short
GOLD - Getting close to the final washout

The flag seems to be ready by today morning ... I'm waiting for a breakdown again as it seems we will not be able to hold above the 100 EMA for too long. The breakdown should be violent with a low on Friday afternoon this week or Monday next week. I think we will be testing 1195 and maybe 1180-82$ ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO USDJPY, D, Long ,
USDJPY: USDJPY - Resistance zone
1742 11 48
USDJPY, D Long
USDJPY - Resistance zone

USDJPY has turned down from the 114,5 resistance again. While most of the traders are waiting for a severe correction I think this pair will print a tricky breakout very soon above the red highlighted resistance zone. The question are we starting the rally here from the 10 EMA or we need to test back the 20 EMA? I will enter a 30% position today at the tag of the ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO NATGASUSD, D,
NATGASUSD: NatGas - Waiting for long entry
1970 10 47
NATGASUSD, D
NatGas - Waiting for long entry

This intermediate cycle is forming a triangle consolidation. This is a tricky pattern: I don't like triangles too much. The cycle count is getting screwed in the triangle, there are always false breakouts from the triangle... Usually it's a continuation pattern but when you bet heavily for the continuation it breaks to the other direction and when you stop out ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, D, Short ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - Heikin Ashi suggests patience
6551 85 88
XAUUSD, D Short
GOLD - Heikin Ashi suggests patience

I still can see the bottom pickers everywhere: "Gold bottomed yesterday." But on the Heikin Ashi chart all I can see is : sea of red. It's not ready yet. Yesterday we printed a red candlestick again. I highlighted the previous ICLs by red. I don't feel it's ready yet. The breakout above the trend line a month ago is no question by today: it was a bull trap. It's ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, D, Short ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - Do you hafe a FEW Minutes?
7646 82 122
XAUUSD, D Short
GOLD - Do you hafe a FEW Minutes?

After the FED Minutes I always take a look at this chart. (FED = FOMC meeting/ FEDM = FED Minutes. The numbers below the arrows are the dates of FED and FEDM) In the past the previous trend always had a follow through after the FED minutes. It seems the same is happening now. Gold's trend is usually turning at or ahead of the FOMC meeting. The next FOMC meeting ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, 60, Short ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - Sir, can we sell?
9011 84 114
XAUUSD, 60 Short
GOLD - Sir, can we sell?

Yes. I think this is the time to sell again. While we might have one more pop up to the daily 200 SMA at 1232-33$ gold should be ready to break the support of 1214$. Have some dry powder for that final bounce to 1233$ in the next 24 hrs but I don't want to risk getting left behind so I re-entered into the short position here at 1228,5$. After we tagged the 50 ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, 60, Long ,
XAUUSD: Gold - Scalp
6517 48 78
XAUUSD, 60 Long
Gold - Scalp

It's not going to be a complicated trade. I'M watching gold's RSI 6 for around 12 years. This oversold level is quite rare. Actually we dropped to 0,1 (!!!) So I'm trying a small countertrend trade. This is going to have a small margin impact (3-5%). The decline is not over yet but we will have a bounce here. Maybe 5$, maybe 8$. You don't have to take this ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, D, Short ,
XAUUSD: Golden ranger
5536 41 110
XAUUSD, D Short
Golden ranger

We've broken down the hourly range this night.This is a chess to the american longs. Who will hold a long position into the holiday? I think most of the funds and the big players will not. So when volume comes in price will break below the 200 SMA. If many of the banks are thinking the same we shouldn't be surprised if the "Contract Dumper" who sold gold 2 weeks ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, 60, Short ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - The Box
3623 39 81
XAUUSD, 60 Short
GOLD - The Box

We were consolidating in a box during the last few days. The key level is : 1241.26$. A significant move below this level will trigger a big breakdown as the range traders will realize that the party is over. This is still not the panic selling but we are getting close. We might break down 1241 today at the GDP data or early next week when USA is closed for the ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, 60, Short ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - Lower highs and lower lows
2396 20 65
XAUUSD, 60 Short
GOLD - Lower highs and lower lows

... and the downtrend continues. The question is : can we make a lower low again? Don't get tricked out by the banks' false countertrend rallies. If gold cannot rally with the weak dollar what will happen when the dollar bounces? We have a long way to go down with a panic selling at the end of it.

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO NATGASUSD, D, Long ,
NATGASUSD: NatGas - We don't short anymore
2511 18 43
NATGASUSD, D Long
NatGas - We don't short anymore

Natty finally has broken out of the consolidation. It was a tricky DCL but our position is in profit. ( We are long from 2,963$) We have 4-5 weeks to run from here. My concern with Natty that the previous DC was weak. We weren't able to run to new highs. Now that the DCL is in place we have a higher low DCL so the fact we didn't have a higher high is not such a ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO USOIL, D, Long ,
USOIL: OIL - Almost
3801 20 50
USOIL, D Long
OIL - Almost

Yesterday we broke above the down trendline. Today price was above both the 10 EMA and 10 SMA almost whole day. By the close we closed below both moving average. A close above the 10 EMA and 10 SMA will pull the big players into this market . Indicators are showing signs of reversal : RSI has left oversold levels. MACD crossed over at extreme levels. Notice how ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, 60, Short ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - Attack
7151 67 83
XAUUSD, 60 Short
GOLD - Attack

World of volatility. 3 green days cleared in a blink of a moment. I strongly suggest to get out of your longs if you didn't stopped out. This is the beginning of a serious decline and someone gave the final push to gold in the last hour in this attack. Pattern I posted on Friday a perfect entry below my last post. We had a head and shoulders pattern on the chart ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO GDXJ, D, Short ,
GDXJ: GDXJ - Flag of surrender
2008 29 45
GDXJ, D Short
GDXJ - Flag of surrender

We are printing a flag here with an especially low volume on the last 2 days... Sometimes next week it's going to break down. I was watching the chart today and noticed that on the 27th of February GDXJ lost all of its chance of going higher and printing a powerful intermediate cycle. It broke below the 100 EMA on high volume on that day. On the 15th of March it ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO XAUUSD, D, Short ,
XAUUSD: GOLD - feed fed FED
14364 164 180
XAUUSD, D Short
GOLD - feed fed FED

Bulls took the bait nicely. The story is always the same : small traders are fed as they are chasing the price before the big correction. Big players and banks are positioning in miners shorts and gold shorts. The small traders are concentrating on a trendline breakout which died out. It's true we broke the trendline and that could be the beginning of a run higher ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO JDST, D, Long ,
JDST: JDST - The big long
2233 23 39
JDST, D Long
JDST - The big long

I think this one is going to produce the biggest gains in the next month. The 200% is almost guaranteed, but even the 300% is not impossible. We are going to have the 2nd biggest volume in JDST history today. Big players were buying. I love to buy with them.

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO GDXJ, D, Short ,
GDXJ: GDXJ - Freefall v2.0
754 7 30
GDXJ, D Short
GDXJ - Freefall v2.0

If gold is going down after a half year rally. What do you think the junior miners will do? Yes they are going to fall too. After an unsuccessful break above the 200 SMA it tried to tag it but couldn't even rise to the 200 SMA. And today we are turning down sharply . I have to note that this cycle in the junior miners was extremely weak. Even weaker than the ...

chartwatchers chartwatchers PRO DUST, D, Long ,
DUST: DUST - Freefall v3.0
1480 12 36
DUST, D Long
DUST - Freefall v3.0

GDX short for the brave ones. A good chance for 100% in 3 weeks.

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