chartwatchers

The 200 SMA played an important role in oil's past history during tha last few years. This call is going to be based on the scenario when oil tags /marginally breaks the 200 SMA and drops into its daily cycle low. The daily cycle is very mature, I already closed my longs last week. From this point it's definetely risky to hold any long positions before we have a...

It's always tough to make a correct call ahead of FOMC meeting. Sometimes the FED is setting the direction, sometimes the next day all the currencies and metals are reversing. This was the case yesterday too. All the gains of Wednesday were dusted yesterday. Now gold's daily chart looks like a flag to me : it's just waiting for to break down. It's still not...

If SPX is going down there is a good chance that VIX is going to print a big rally in the following 2-3 days. It's never a good idea to sit in TVIX and wait for a bounce. You need to time almost perfectly when it is starting to run. VIX can easily print x2, x3 prices. I suggest an entry here at the inverted hammer. Stop can go below today's low...

Taking some awful chances in this idea. The daily cycle is very mature, we are on day 47. We bumped into the resistance of 2820 again which is a multi month resistance. It's the 2nd time that we were unable to break above it. MACD crossed over, RSI 6 had left oversold condition and just needs to break below the red line ; and SlowStochastic has a good cahnce to...

After Friday's drop most probably we are going to consolidate for 1-2 or 3 days. The reason: 1. We had a Bollinger band crash signal. During a correction followed after a bull market a Bollinger band crash signal often signs a temporary bottom. 2. We are having the signs of the daily cycle low : RSI in oversold territory,...

First of all this is not a short idea. I'm already short in a previous idea and waiting for gold to bottom before closing. This idea is summarizing what happened during the last half year, and I'm trying to predict a price where gold bottoms in the next 4-5 weeks before breaks out of this multi year consolidation. Remember that we are starting the times of...

If we can close here it means we broke out significantly of the range . As I was waiting for in my previous idea we needed to consolidate a little bit in this range - testing the upper and down trendlines before breaking higher : RSI just tested back the 50 line and MACD looks like a "Kiss and...

We have an important ECB meeting today. Probably this is one of the last chance for Draghi to weaken the Euro before the ECB starts its rate hiking process. The strengthening dollar will push gold down into its final correction before gold's multi year basing pattern breaks to the upside this summer. The triangle broke down and we are testing the the lower line...

Technicals: Most of us in Europe and America were sitting/preparing for the Christmas dinner when oil dropped 4$ on the 24th of December. Most probably it was a natural drop... I let you guess who run the stops on a day when the next day was Holiday, and also the 26th of December was a Holiday in many European country... After the the nasty Christams Eve attack...

25th December 2018. In country not so far away. J: " Merry Christmas Mr. President!" T: " Merry Christmas Jerry !" J: " You look thoughtful Mr President. Is everything ok with your family ?" T: " Everything is okay at home. The problem is that you crashed the markets with the rate hike and the light dovish talk at the last FED meeting. You know how important is...

We are getting close to the top of this daily cycle: we might have printed the high yesterday. I will initiate a short position here at 1275$. On the 19th December we had a nice key reversal but the next day price rallied to new highs. Yesterday the day ended up with a bearish pin bar. Till we don't take out the previous high at 1280 I will hold the short...

"Never catch a falling knife." - Pick it up from the ground when it's already lying. This is what I'm going to do here. After the two-week frustrating bottoming pattern it looks like oil is starting a rally today. OPEC meeting finished today though there is no production cut the chart is showing bullish signs: -The trendline is broken...

I will enter an 50% position here in the SPX . Only 50% because there is still a chance it's going to drop down to the 100 MA / 100 EMA at around 2590- 2600 on the weekly chart. If we tag 2600 I will enter the other 50%. I don't think the bull is over but it's the last serious decline before we enter the parabolic...

There's a serious problem with the dollar. It stopped acting as safe heaven. Stocks are dropping and the the USD can't break the small reistances even. 22 days passed since the last intermediate bottom and the buck was not able to break the resistance at 96.17. Today we are rolling over again. Now it looks like a long...

A few important things are happening in the markets this morning. In gold we are breaking out of the triangle. Before anyone would try to short this -of course it's always possible that we drop back into the triangle 5 minutes after this post - I would would warn that most probably we are going to get a very powerful move this week. During the summer decline we...

The bubble bursted but the worst thing still ahead of us. What I see here is a series of lower lows, 50 and 200 SMA crossover, 100 and 200 SMA crossover. It's just waiting for the massacre , waiting for a recognition phase where longs have to realize that only in a fantasy land possible to create a currency without GDP behind it. It's getting choked. First - in...

In 2017 January I called the breakdown of the giant flag in the USDCAD. We have a similar situation here. After the previous flag breakdown - June 2017- price was trending in a channel. We had 2 false breakdowns from the channel. Before the last one price tried to recover above the...

Though AUDUSD is still in the down channel it's started to form divergences. Price dropped below 0,71 but was not able to tag the channel's bottom. I'm afraid it can't drop to 0,7 so I'm starting an initial position (50%) . If it drops to 0,7 I will add the other 50% if not I just trade the bounce with a 50% margin impact.