About me"It is much easier to watch a few than many." J. Livermore
For analysis I use candlestick patterns, chart patterns, indicators, cycles, sentiment.
I’m a trader on the gold market since 2004. I’m watching 5 minutes/1 hour / 4 hour / daily / weekly chart
If we can close here it means we broke out significantly of the range .
As I was waiting for in my previous idea we needed to consolidate a little bit in this range - testing the upper and down trendlines before breaking higher :
RSI just tested back the 50 line and MACD looks like a "Kiss and...
We have an important ECB meeting today. Probably this is one of the last chance for Draghi to weaken the Euro before the ECB starts its rate hiking process.
The strengthening dollar will push gold down into its final correction before gold's multi year basing pattern breaks to the upside this summer.
The triangle broke down and we are testing the the lower line...
Most of us in Europe and America were sitting/preparing for the Christmas dinner when oil dropped 4$ on the 24th of December. Most probably it was a natural drop... I let you guess who run the stops on a day when the next day was Holiday, and also the 26th of December was a Holiday in many European country...
After the the nasty Christams Eve attack...
25th December 2018. In country not so far away.
J: " Merry Christmas Mr. President!"
T: " Merry Christmas Jerry !"
J: " You look thoughtful Mr President. Is everything ok with your family ?"
T: " Everything is okay at home. The problem is that you crashed the markets with the rate hike and the light dovish talk at the last FED meeting. You know how important is...
We are getting close to the top of this daily cycle: we might have printed the high yesterday.
I will initiate a short position here at 1275$.
On the 19th December we had a nice key reversal but the next day price rallied to new highs.
Yesterday the day ended up with a bearish pin bar. Till we don't take out the previous high at 1280 I will hold the short...
"Never catch a falling knife." - Pick it up from the ground when it's already lying.
This is what I'm going to do here.
After the two-week frustrating bottoming pattern it looks like oil is starting a rally today.
OPEC meeting finished today though there is no production cut the chart is showing bullish signs:
-The trendline is broken...
I will enter an 50% position here in the SPX .
Only 50% because there is still a chance it's going to drop down to the 100 MA / 100 EMA at around 2590- 2600 on the weekly chart. If we tag 2600 I will enter the other 50%.
I don't think the bull is over but it's the last serious decline before we enter the parabolic...
There's a serious problem with the dollar. It stopped acting as safe heaven.
Stocks are dropping and the the USD can't break the small reistances even.
22 days passed since the last intermediate bottom and the buck was not able to break the resistance at 96.17. Today we are rolling over again.
Now it looks like a long...
A few important things are happening in the markets this morning.
In gold we are breaking out of the triangle. Before anyone would try to short this -of course it's always possible that we drop back into the triangle 5 minutes after this post - I would would warn that most probably we are going to get a very powerful move this week.
During the summer decline we...
The bubble bursted but the worst thing still ahead of us.
What I see here is a series of lower lows, 50 and 200 SMA crossover, 100 and 200 SMA crossover. It's just waiting for the massacre , waiting for a recognition phase where longs have to realize that only in a fantasy land possible to create a currency without GDP behind it.
It's getting choked. First - in...
In 2017 January I called the breakdown of the giant flag in the USDCAD.
We have a similar situation here. After the previous flag breakdown - June 2017- price was trending in a channel. We had 2 false breakdowns from the channel. Before the last one price tried to recover above the...
Though AUDUSD is still in the down channel it's started to form divergences.
Price dropped below 0,71 but was not able to tag the channel's bottom. I'm afraid it can't drop to 0,7 so I'm starting an initial position (50%) . If it drops to 0,7 I will add the other 50% if not I just trade the bounce with a 50% margin impact.
If the SPX was going to collapse in the next few days the place where your money should be is in VIX. Yes it rallied 15% today but when volatility really comes in it's an easy double from here . And we need just one or 2 days for that....
Just like this year February.
In a previous idea I already suggested to long EurUsd .
It's still forming the basing pattern after the 2018 drop. Today we arrived to an important support zone again at 1.1514.
If you watch the chart carefully we have two H&S pattern . The first one formed after the 2017 EURUSD rally...
UJ had arrived to the same resistance (114) what stopped its rally in the last 2 years.
It took nearly 6 months this time to rally from the prior bottom to 114.
Today we have a swing on the daily chart ( a drop below yesterday's daily low)
RSI leaving oversold , MACD is nearing to levels where it turned down : it's time to...
Though we are still in the range it seems the ping-pong game finished.
When you choose gold market to trade you need to know it is a rigged market : everything evolved here is to fleece human retail traders.
The last few days are a perfect example how these entities are influencing the gold market.
On the 18th Aug gold topped at 14:00 and entered into a normal...
Last week Tuesday commercial long contracts were 87538, short contracts on the same day were 86121.
At the same time large speculators short contracts jumped from 7158 to 16598.
This is a rare moment when most of the commercials think there is no need to hedge production and hedge funds became very convinced silver is going lower.
I will be trading this with the...
The call is to drop 300 points by the 20th of September.
I was waiting for this day to drop below the previous day's low.
As of today by the close we completed a swing :
It took almost 7 months to break above the previous high(2877). The rally started on the 9thFebruay and we broke out on the 27th of August. We used up too...