SMART MONEY CONCEPT (SMC)📊 Bullish Analysis XAU/USD (15M)
The market showed a clear Change of Character (CHoCH) to the downside, triggering a sell-off that swept Sell-Side Liquidity and tapped into the 1H Order Block (OB). From this level, price reacted with strength.
After the sweep, we observed a Break of Structure (BOS) to the upside, signaling possible institutional absorption. The Fake Out highlights how retail traders get trapped while institutions prepare to reposition.
🔑 Projected Scenario
• Entry zone at 4,211 (support/rejection area).
• Stop Loss at 4,156 → R/R 1:2.
• Target (TP) at 4,322.
• Expect a Rejection → Distribution → Continuation before price reaches the target.
📌 Key Takeaways
• Institutions often manipulate liquidity before continuation.
• The setup is aligned with Smart Money Concepts: liquidity sweep → rejection → bullish continuation.
• Patience is key to wait for confirmation candles at the entry zone.
✨ Motivational Note
Trading is not about chasing moves, but about preparing for the right moment. Patience and discipline separate professionals from amateurs. 🚀 GOOD LUCK TRADERS ;)
Trade ideas
Gold Analysis for Week 20/10/2025Gold Analysis
Supply areas
4336 - 4343
4305 - 4315
4236 - 4247
Demand area
4285 - 4290
4215 - 4230
Low Volume nodes (LVN)
4275 - 4278 Bearish Biased
Scenario 1.
30 min Analysis
We Buy to 4275 sweeping and filling the LVN creating a minor CHOCH at 4266. On the 5 min we wait for a bearish CHOCH to then sell further with targets being 4232 , 4211 and 4187
Scenario 2
30 min Analysis
We Buy to 4275 sweeping and filling the LVN creating a minor CHOCH at 4266. We continue buying to the supply area at 4305. Wait for a 5 min bearish CHOC to sell to targets 4278, 4247 , 4211 and 4187
Scenario 3.
We break through 4355 and retest 4340 to the go bullish again.
I am bearish till price trades above 4336. If price trades above this level. I will look at bullish intent.
WHAT IS THE EXPECTED RETURN and DURATION of this GOLD Bull Run?Well, when measured against the DXY index, a clear trend becomes apparent.
A Golden Bull typically lasts about 40 quarters, which is essentially 1 decade (give or take a quarter).
Similar to #Bitcoin and its cyclical bull markets within a larger secular bull, the returns tend to decrease over time.
However, it seems that a triple-digit Gold price relative to the DXY is on the horizon at the very least.
What would that look like if the DXY were to hit a new low around 69? This would suggest a Gold price of $6900 at a ratio of 100:1.
A Gold price of $12K with a DXY of 80 only requires a ratio of 150...
Thus, a five-digit Gold price is certainly within the realm of possibility.
I have forecasts that extend as high as $12K.
GOLD Technical & Order Flow AnalysisOur analysis is based on a multi-timeframe top-down approach and fundamental analysis.
Based on our assessment, the price is expected to return to the monthly level.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis may change at any time without notice and is solely intended to assist traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no obligation to act on it, nor should you.
Please support our analysis with a boost or comment!
Gold consolidating ahead of newsGold is consolidating. The price is breaking through the local support of the “ascending wedge” pattern. This could cause the price to fall to the support level.
Focus on the trading range boundaries of 3060 - 4020 - 4001. MM may provoke liquidation and a retest of support against the backdrop of a bullish trend, which will open up new potential for growth
provided that Powell maintains his relatively dovish stance on interest rate policy.
The Golden Triangle is coming to an end, beware of profit takingGold Hourly Chart: The overnight close was relatively high, and today's Asian session continued its upward trend. The European session saw a sharp drop below the upper channel line at 4242. This trend resistance line is the same one that held pressure at 4218 in yesterday's European session. The market then closed with a large, plump, bearish candlestick pattern at 2:00 PM, reaching the target of 4210. Since it was a large bearish candlestick pattern, not a long lower shadow candlestick pattern, a rebound confirming the 5-day moving average at 4230-34 is sufficient, so a further downward push is warranted.
The European session saw consecutive positive days, testing the bottom and rallying to a new all-time high. However, caution is advised in the US session. On the one hand, the 4250 level is a resistance point in the channel, and on the other hand, it is nearing the end of an ascending converging triangle, leaving little room for further movement and a potential reversal. Therefore, support remains at the middle line at 4230. Only a significant break below this level would trigger a potential for a significant short-term correction. Resistance is at 4265. Be cautious about blindly chasing rallies below this level. Consider the gains and losses at both levels and wait for signals.
XAUUSD NEXT POSSIBLE MOVE Gold is currently holding near a strong support zone, where buyers have consistently stepped in to push prices higher. After a brief correction, the market is showing early signs of bullish strength and accumulation.
If the price continues to respect this area and forms a bullish candle pattern (such as a rejection wick or bullish engulfing), it could signal the start of a reversal to the upside.
Momentum indicators are turning positive, suggesting that buying pressure is increasing while sellers are losing control.
As long as price remains above this key support, the bias stays bullish, and potential upside continuation can be expected in the next sessions.
GOLD: Will Go Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 4,197.43 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
A POSSIBLE RETRACEMENT It looks like gold is likely to sell a bit further but lower rectangular block could cause price to resume the bullish trend so it's a tricky area to trade but it's favorable to buy at lower block than selling but if it's able to move below the lower block then you can confidently sell.
October 17 Gold AnalysisOctober 17 Gold Analysis
Viewpoint: Spot gold has surged strongly, hitting new all-time highs on the back of multiple positive factors, fueling an extremely bullish market sentiment. Technical indicators suggest the market has entered a severely overbought zone, sharply increasing the risk of a short-term correction. This has resulted in significant fluctuations in the current market's upward and downward trajectory. Strategically, we should adhere to the principle of buying on dips and avoid blindly chasing highs. We must set stop-loss orders, manage our positions, and protect our principal.
Gold's strength is primarily driven by the following core factors:
1. Rising expectations of a Fed rate cut: The market currently anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut in October and hopes for another 50 basis point cut in December. These early and aggressive rate cut expectations are putting pressure on the US dollar and reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold, becoming the primary driver of gold's price increases.
2. Continued safe-haven demand: The ongoing US government shutdown and international trade tensions continue to attract global safe-haven funds into the gold market, seeking safe haven assets. 3. Structural Buying Support: Continued gold purchases by major global central banks and the long-term trend of de-dollarization provide a solid underlying demand for gold. Furthermore, a significant increase in holdings by the world's largest gold-holding ETF (ETF) further boosted market confidence.
Technical Analysis: Overbought Warning Amidst Extreme Strength
From a technical perspective, the gold market is in a peak bullish phase, but this also sows the seeds for a correction.
Long-Term and Daily Charts:
Unbeatable Trend: The daily chart has closed positive for five consecutive trading days, the TRIX indicator has formed a golden cross, and the MACD indicator's red bullish momentum bar continues to increase, clearly demonstrating that bulls remain firmly in control of the long-term and medium-term trends.
Significant Gains: Since this bullish rally began at $3,311, the price has risen by over $1,000, a significant increase.
Severely Overbought: The daily KDJ indicator is trading in the severely overbought zone, a strong technical warning signal. Historical experience shows that under such extreme overbought conditions, the market is highly likely to experience a significant technical correction within the next 1-3 trading days.
Short-Term (Hourly Chart):
High-Level Fluctuation: After reaching $4,379, gold prices quickly retreated to $4,279 before rebounding to around $4,350, demonstrating significant volatility and divergence between bulls and bears at high levels.
Short-Term Weakness Signal: The hourly KDJ indicator has formed a high-level death crossover after reaching overbought levels, and the MACD red momentum bar has shrunk, indicating a weakening of short-term upward momentum. The trend is relatively bearish and requires consolidation or a pullback to absorb profit-taking.
Trading Strategy
1. Main Strategy:
In the current environment, "buying on dips" is the only reasonable core strategy. Going short against the trend and anticipating a top is extremely risky. The key to trading is patience, waiting for the price to pull back to key support levels before intervening, rather than chasing the price at intermediate levels or after reaching new highs.
2. Key Levels:
Important Support Zone: Focus on $4,280-4,300, particularly around the morning low of $4,279. This area represents a crucial defensive line for bulls in the near term and serves as an ideal area for buying on dips.
Upward Resistance: $4,380 is currently the primary psychological and technical resistance level.
3. Major Risk Warning:
Extreme Volatility Risk: The market has entered a period of historically high volatility, with intraday swings exceeding hundreds of dollars becoming the norm. Traders must manage their positions carefully to avoid being wiped out by excessive volatility.
Technical Pullback Risk: Severe overbought conditions on the daily chart are currently the greatest risk. Any disturbance could trigger large-scale profit-taking, leading to a rapid and significant decline in gold prices. Investors must be fully prepared mentally and strategically for this.
Summary: Gold still has medium-term upside potential, but the short-term path is likely to precede a period of significant volatility or technical correction. Traders should maintain confidence in the long-term trend while remaining cautious of potential short-term fluctuations. It is recommended to participate in the market with a small position, enter the market in batches, and at key support levels. Always set a stop-loss to mitigate the risk of a sudden reversal.
Please be cautious when trading and control the risks! I wish you a smooth transaction!
XAU/USD Record Breaking Rally Runs Hot- Exhaustion RiskThis week’s rally marks the largest single-week range on record and the ninth consecutive weekly advance— the first such streak since August 2020, when the yearly high was registered. Weekly momentum has also surged to its highest level since April 2006, which likewise coincided with that year’s peak in gold. These technical observations suggest that while the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable at these levels.
Initial weekly support rests along the median-line, currently near the 4000 mark and a break / weekly close below this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger correction is underway. Monthly-open support rests at 3859 with broader bullish invalidation now raise to the 61.8% extension of the May advance at 3782.
Weekly resistance is eyed with the upper parallel / 2.618% extension of the 2015 advance at 4308- a topside breach / weekly close above this threshold would threaten another bout of accelerated gains with the next major technical considerations eyed at the 3.618% extension of the April decline at 4492 and the 1.618% extension of yearly advance at 4553.
Bottom line: The gold breakout extended into record highs this week with multi-year extremes registered in momentum, range, and duration- the exhaustion risk is mounting. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 4000 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a weekly close above 4308 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.
-MB
GOLD-SELL strategy Monthly chart Reg. Channelyes, we are still higher as if it will never stop. However, such lofty levels and RSI heights, are not normal, and adding to it the Reg. Channel severe breakout suggest caution. Short is still the way to be for medium-term to long-=term, is my personal view I am happy adding to shorts I already have.
Strategy sell OR add to SELL @ $ 3,950 - 4,100 and take profit on the way down between $ 2,950 - 3,150 for now.
Gold can Start a Correction Towards 3855 SupportHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. The broader market context for Gold has been decidedly bullish since the price reversed and broke out from a prior descending channel. This structural shift established a new uptrend, which has since been neatly contained within a well-defined ascending channel. The price action for XAU has been creating a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Currently, the asset is trading very close to the resistance line of this ascending channel, an area where sellers may re-emerge. My strategy is based on the expectation that the price will reach this line, be rejected, and then begin a corrective decline. I think after such a strong run, a pullback is a probable scenario. A confirmed reversal from this upper boundary would validate the short idea. Therefore, I have placed my TP at the 3855 current support level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Fear Feeds Gold to the Next Target at 4200Last Friday October 10,2025 massive waterfall came in when President Donald Trump announced he will impose an additional 100% tariff on goods from China, on top of the 30% tariffs already in effect, starting November 1 or sooner. The threat is a massive escalation after months of a trade truce between the two nations.(-CNN)
With this sentiment in the air, the positivity of cut rates have been wiped out and the sentiment is inclined to fear making gold the safe haven asset for investors.
Gold has picked up its momentum at the 0.5 level of the Fibbonaci ratio around 3940 $/oz and is accumulating to beat again the recent all time high 4059 $/oz
Safe haven status will lead gold to another highs this week. Potentially targeting the next 2 Standard deviation around 4200 $/oz .
It is possible Monday will open a gap up and will continue its way up all Monday long. Retracements will sure happen if Dollar index picks up.
The said fear can be alleviated by Powell's speech coming on October 15,2025 at 12:20 noon US time.
Gold Trading Strategy Based on News (News Trading)Hello everyone,
When it comes to gold, few things move the market faster and stronger than economic news. Data releases such as CPI, NFP, or Fed interest rate decisions can cause gold prices to swing sharply within minutes — creating perfect opportunities for traders who react in time. For example, a higher-than-expected CPI report often pushes gold prices up, while a strong NFP can send them plunging instantly.
To take advantage of these moves, you must first understand how each type of news impacts gold. A high CPI signals rising inflation — gold tends to climb as investors seek protection against inflation. A low CPI usually strengthens the USD, pushing gold lower. A strong NFP indicates economic growth, leading to USD gains and gold weakness, while a weak NFP weakens the USD and boosts gold. As for the Fed’s interest rate decisions : rate hikes strengthen the USD and pressure gold, while rate cuts do the opposite.
The core strategy here is to trade immediately after the news release . If the outcome exceeds expectations, gold typically reacts sharply: high CPI or weak NFP → buy, strong NFP or low CPI → sell . The key is quick execution and strict risk management .
The Economic Calendar on TradingView is your best ally — it helps you track upcoming data releases in real time. Before the news, identify the market expectation and prepare your buy or sell setups. Once the data drops, react based on price action and always set a proper Stop Loss : below support for buys, above resistance for sells, and never risk more than 1–2% of your account per trade .
This strategy’s appeal lies in the high volatility, rapid opportunities , and strong liquidity , which allow for efficient entries and exits. Traders who can stay calm and react correctly can capture sharp profits from news shocks — while those unprepared often get caught in the chaos.
In short, trading gold based on news is a powerful strategy — but it only works if you master timing, manage your risk carefully, and stay updated with tools like the Economic Calendar.
Are you ready to catch gold’s next big move when the news hits?
Gold Hits New Record as U.S.–China Tensions and Rate-Cut Bets FuGOLD – PREMIUM UPDATE | Gold Hits New Record as U.S.–China Tensions and Rate-Cut Bets Fuel Rally
Gold hit a fresh record high at $4,218, driven by escalating U.S.–China trade tensions, renewed rate-cut expectations, and rising geopolitical uncertainty.
Investors continue to increase exposure to bullion as a hedge against risk, while Fed Chair Powell’s dovish comments in Philadelphia strengthened rate-cut bets, putting additional pressure on the U.S. dollar and reinforcing gold’s bullish tone.
Key Levels
Pivot: 4,202
Resistance: 4,224 · 4,250 · 4,267
Support: 4,174 · 4,162 · 4,140
Trading Plan
Buy Setup: Long positions remain valid above 4,162, targeting 4,224 / 4,250 / 4,267.
Sell Setup: Shorts correction valid below 4211, targeting 4,175 / 4,162.
Premium Takeaway
Gold maintains strong bullish control above $4,162, with momentum favoring another leg higher toward 4,250–4,267.
Only a decisive break below 4,162 would trigger a short-term correction, while sustained strength above 4,211 keeps the uptrend intact and opens the path toward a new ATH above $4,300.
GOLD WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPWeekly Chart Update – Follow Up
3732 & 3806 Objectives Achieved, 3910 Gap Opens
Hey Everyone,
Last week’s structure played out precisely as projected, we achieved our 3806 target following a confirmed body close above 3732, validating the continuation leg within our Goldturn structures.
This week, we’ve seen a weekly candle body close above 3806, officially opening the 3910 gap zone. The bullish structure remains well defined, supported by four consecutive weeks of EMA5 detachment, which confirms sustained upside momentum. However, this extended separation also signals potential for sharp corrective phases, requiring careful risk management and dynamic positioning.
Current Outlook
🔹 3732 Breakout & 3806 Objective Completed
Last week’s projected upside target was met precisely following a strong candle close confirmation.
🔹 3910 Gap Now Active
With the weekly close above 3806, the next structural resistance opens toward the 3910 zone.
🔹 EMA5 Detachment (4 Weeks Running)
Persistent detachment supports ongoing bullish momentum, but traders should remain alert for any mean reversion pullbacks or exhaustion on lower timeframes.
🔹 Support Structure
Immediate support now rests at 3806, followed by 3732 as a pivotal retest zone. Deeper support sits at 3659, which aligns with the ascending channel top confluence a critical structural level if broader correction unfolds.
Updated Key Levels
📉 Supports: 3806 (immediate), 3732 (secondary), 3659 (pivotal channel confluence)
📈 Resistance / Next Upside Objective: 3910–4015 zone
Plan & Risk Outlook
The bullish framework remains intact, but with EMA5 detachment now stretched, traders should anticipate volatility spikes or short term corrective dips. A controlled pullback into the lower Goldturns would be considered technically healthy and may offer fresh accumulation opportunities in line with the broader structure.
We’ll continue to monitor for confirmation closes and EMA5 realignments during the week to gauge whether momentum extends or correction begins.
Trade safe, stay disciplined, and manage exposure around volatility.
Mr. Gold
GoldViewFX
#4,200.80 mark almost tested / #4,100.80 achieved alreadyAs discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: 'My position: I have been Buying Gold throughout Friday's session all along and Buying Gold firstly in #3,972.80 - #3,992.80 Neutral Rectangle waiting for the break-out to the upside. I had reached my Buying Profit Intra-day quota within the belt and started my usual Medium-term Buy orders positioning. I have Bought Gold (Medium-term) on #3,992.80 Support for the fractal as Gold was unable to break above #4,022.80 Resistance however my Stop was triggered on #3,985.80. I Bought Gold again on #3,978.80 again with #3,962.80 Stop and over the weekend / this morning my #4,042.80 Take Profit is hit, confirming my thesis that Traders shouldn't Sell Gold at all cost and turn to Buying this market. Each Selling momentum is just another sweep before Buyers arise and take Gold on upper levels. I do expect #4,100.80 benchmark to be met within #1 - #2 week horizon before #4,200.80 which is posing as my Medium-term Target. I achieved my weekly Profit and will take it easy from now.'
My position: So far so good as my both Targets on current Bull run are met earlier than I expected and as soon as I spotted that Gold tested #4,100.80 benchmark, I established my Support zone on #4,088.80 - #4,092.80 and started Buying Gold (aggressive Scalps) and when #4,103.80 was tested I stopped, waiting for pullback. On #4,092.80 test, I have Bought Gold aggressively (two times #25 Lots) with #4,127.80 Target which was hit, delivering excellent Profits over-night however now it seems that I have set my Target much Lower as Gold tested #4,180's. However, I am very satisfied with my Profits on current multi-Month Bull run and will continue Buying Gold until #4,200.80 mark is realized from my key re-Buy points. I repeat, I receive many messages of Traders getting trapped or liquidated in attempt to Sell Gold, do not Sell at all cost regardless the Technical opportunity to do so.