GOLD:Ranging between 4200-4280,awaiting guidance from news flows📈Gold exhibited a trend of surging higher and then pulling back today. In the early session, stimulated by news of localized conflicts in the Middle East, risk-aversion sentiment picked up, driving gold prices higher. After the opening, prices surged rapidly to 4,273.99. However, signs of de-escalation emerged afterward, cooling risk-aversion sentiment.
Meanwhile, factors such as early signs of a decline in U.S. auto loan rates and fading expectations of a Fed rate cut led some funds to shift from gold to U.S. dollar assets, resulting in a drop in gold prices.
📝From a technical perspective, the key resistance level above is around 4280. If gold can hold firmly above this level, it may form a short-term bottom structure and further test the 4362 level. A break above the previous high of 4379 would open the door to further upside. The support level below is near 4200; if this support fails to hold, gold prices may fall further to 4150 or even lower.
📝From a fundamental perspective, there are many uncertain factors in the market. While there are hints of news such as a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and China-U.S. trade negotiations, the outcomes remain uncertain. If the negotiations do not go smoothly, it may once again benefit gold. Additionally, the probability of a U.S. government shutdown has increased, which provides some support for gold prices.
♦Overall, the Gold is likely to fluctuate within the 4200–4280 range in the short term, waiting for further guidance from fundamental news.
Buy 4220 - 4225 TP 4235 - 4245 - 4255 SL 4210
Sell 4270 - 4275 TP 4265 - 4255 - 4245 SL 4280
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
Trade ideas
GOLD STRONG REJECTION|LONG|
✅XAUUSD after rejecting the demand level, is showing early signs of bullish intent. The rejection wick signals absorption of sell-side liquidity and potential expansion toward the imbalance near the 4,310$ target zone. As long as price stays above 4,220$, buyers remain in control. Time Frame 2H.
LONG🚀
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EXPECTATION FOR THE WEEK AHEAD Gold retraced down on Friday to create a higher low and tested a major zone around 4190 area, if it closed below 4190 it would have triggered more sells but it didn't and got rejected thereby closing above 4200 and this is a sign of bullish resumption and as a trader with fair understanding of the market the next thing to look for is a buy and the first best place to buy is at 4235-30 and hold it but if you don't want to really manage your trade, i suggest you close at 4335-40 and if it closes above 4365 then you target a buy again at 4365-60 area and hold for ever,
price could be rejected at 4340 or anywhere within the upper rectangular block and sell to close below 4190 for it to sell more for some days, so to prevent losing gained profits you can close at 4340 in order to be at the safer side incase the market decides to change to long term sells, if you have the courage to hold for then you can hold because the trend is bullish overall and i will update too to signal if it decides to change direction.
Clue: if Monday closes with a bullish candle especially above 4365 then we are buying from Tuesday going, but if it closes bearish on Monday (D1) then we will definitely sell from Tuesday going especially if it closes below 4190.
XAU/USD 16 October 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis, however CHoCH positioning has moved closer to more recent price action.
Price has printed a further bullish iBOS, however, I will apply discretion and not classify it as such due to the insignificant depth of pullback relative to recent price action.
At the time of this analysis price is continuing to print bullish without pause, which, as a result, I am unable to confirm a fractal high.
Current bearish CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue horizontal dotted line.
Intraday expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has continued bullish printing further ATH's.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS and has reacted from discount of 50% EQ.
Intraday expectation:
Price to target weak internal high, priced at 4,242.380.
Alternative scenario: As all higher timeframes are requiring a pullback, and we are seeing a narrowing of internal structure, price could target strong internal low.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s tariff announcements, particularly against China, are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Gold (XAUUSD) Market Outlook – Smart Money PerspectiveGold continues to break its all-time highs (ATH), with the previous peak at 4218. Shortly after, a liquidity grab occurred at 4163, roughly an hour later. This happened during the London session, a period often marked by institutional manipulation. These moves are typically executed by big players, institutions, and whales to liquidate weak hands or retail traders who entered buys near the ATH, resulting in nearly 500 pips of drawdown.
To FOMO traders, this move appeared as a selling opportunity, but the whales regained control, causing the market to consolidate, leaving many confused. This is a classic trap strategy used by smart money to shake out emotional traders.
BUYING SCENARIO (Bullish Bias):
Watch the M30 Fair Value Gap (FVG) closely.
If a 30-minute candle closes inside or above the FVG, it confirms that price is respecting the imbalance zone.
This gives a high probability for price to continue upward and potentially break above the 4218 ATH, forming a new high.
Confluences to consider:
- M30 FVG respected and filled
- Strong bullish candle close
- Presence of bullish order block below
---------------------------------------
SELLING SCENARIO (Cautious Bearish Bias):
Although the overall market structure remains bullish, a short-term sell opportunity may occur if:
- Price rejects both M15 FVGs (indicating sell-side reaction).
- A 15-minute candle closes below 4169, confirming bearish intent.
- There is a clear market structure shift (MSS) or a lower high formation on M5–M15.
Key Reminders:
Don’t sell blindly into a bullish trend, wait for strong confirmations.
Look for liquidity resting below current lows as a potential target.
💡 Quote / Trivia for Traders:
Did you know? In trading, waiting is a position. Patience is a form of execution.
It's not just about entries and exits, the ability to wait for the right setup is what separates disciplined traders from impulsive ones.
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for October 14thGold Technical Analysis
Daily Resistance: 4200, Support: 3945
4-Hour Resistance: 4180, Support: 4060
1-Hour Resistance: 4145, Support: 4090
From a technical perspective, after yesterday's surge to 4100, gold continued its upward trend today, challenging 4200, reaching a high near 4180. This also indicates that the market is entering a period of acceleration, and a significant downward correction is imminent.
As a result, gold and silver prices began to fall sharply in the Asian market today, with gold prices quickly falling from 4180 to 4090, a $90 drop in just one hour. While a $90 correction may seem significant, it's not an exaggeration compared to the period of the upward trend.
Of course, it's too early to say whether gold will continue to fall sharply. After all, several key levels (last week's high of 4060 and low of 3945) have not yet been broken. For now, the upward trend can only be considered a pause. As long as key support remains, the trend will not easily change.
Trading Strategy:
BUY: 4090near
BUY: 4060near
Suggesting a focus on medium to long term trends.The chart shows a daily (1D) timeframe, suggesting a focus on medium-to-long-term trends. The current price is around $4,350.855.
Resistance and Support
The immediate and significant resistance is identified at the $4,451.10 level, corresponding to a labeled point 1.618 (likely a Fibonacci extension level).
Other labeled resistance levels above the current price include:
4,582.817 (labeled 2.414)
4,667.265 (labeled 3)
4,720.242 (labeled 3.414)
The highest labeled resistance is 4,850.570 (labeled 4.272).
Support levels from the Fibonacci tool are near the current price:
4,343.435 (labeled 0.786)
4,328.885 (labeled 0.618)
4,285.885 (labeled 0.382)
The price is currently well above the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo), which is green and trending upward, indicating a strong bullish trend.
Tenkan-Sen (Conversion Line): 3,998.015 (Blue line)
Kijun-Sen (Base Line): 3,824.884 (Red line)
The price is significantly above both the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen, reinforcing the strong momentum and bullish signal. A Tenkan-Sen/Kijun-Sen Price Cross is flagged as 'Strong' in the status table, confirming this.
The price is trading near the upper band of the Bollinger Bands (BB (20, SMA, close, 2)), which typically suggests the price is becoming overbought or is at the peak of a strong directional move.
The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) is currently at 4,013.739. Since the price is far above the SMA, it further supports the strong upward trend.
Market Ignites!Gold Set to Open the 4400 Chapter!Supported by multiple structures including the W-shaped double bottom structure and the ascending triangle, gold continues to rise. The current highest has reached the area near 4364. The bullish trend is running well. It can be seen that even if the retracement space increases, the short position still does not have continuity. After gold retreated and stimulated liquidity, a large amount of off-market wait-and-see funds entered the market to bet on bulls, and gold strongly regained most of its lost ground.
It is actually very difficult to predict the upper high point of the current market trend. The resistance area that can be seen in the short term is around 4365, followed by the area around 4380. If gold touches the above resistance area, there may still be signs of a slight pullback. Therefore, the support areas we need to pay attention to are first the area around 4330, and secondly the area around 4310. If gold can still hold above the above support areas during the retracement, it is likely that gold will hit the previous high again, or even break through the previous high and enter the 4400 era!
Therefore, the short-term trading strategy is clear:
1. If gold continues to rebound to the 4365-4375 area, we can consider shorting gold and capitalizing on a pullback.
2. If gold retreats first, we can consider going long in the 4330-4320 area.
ANALYSIS FOR THE WEEK Gold retraced down on Friday to create a higher low and tested a major zone around 4190 area, if it closed below 4190 it would have triggered more sells but it didn't and got rejected thereby closing above 4200 and this is a sign of bullish resumption and as a trader with fair understanding of the market the next thing to look for is a buy and the first best place to buy is at 4235-30 and hold it but if you want to really manage your trade, i suggest you close at 4335-40 and if it closes above 4365 then you target a buy again at 4365-60 area and hold for ever,
price could be rejected at 4340 or anywhere within the upper rectangular block and sell to close below 4190 for it to sell more for some days, so to prevent losing gained profits you can close at 4340 in order to be at the safer side incase the market decides to change to long term sells, if you have the courage to hold, then you can hold because the trend is bullish overall and i will update it too, if it decides to change direction i will signal it early before it becomes late.
Clue: if Monday closes with a bullish candle especially above 4365 then we are buying from Tuesday going, but if it closes bearish on Monday (D1) then we will definitely sell from Tuesday going especially if it closes below 4190.
2
GOLD 30M - time to cool off after the rally?After a sharp rally, gold seems ready for a breather. The chart shows a break of the short-term trendline followed by a retest from below. The price is now hovering near $4250, testing the 0.618 Fibonacci level - a classic resistance area where sellers often step in.
If the pullback continues, the next downside targets lie near $4185 and $4064. However, as long as the $4200 support holds, bulls still have a chance to regain control.
Fundamentally , gold remains supported by global uncertainty and dovish central banks, but technically, a healthy correction was long overdue.
Tactical plan: watch $4260 closely. If sellers hold, the drop could extend. If buyers reclaim the level - bears will have to retreat.
Remember: don’t try to catch falling gold - it cuts both ways.
XAU updated😋
What I say!!!!!
$4245 en route, $4318 settled!!!!!!
Asia lows in sight!!!!
I’m gonna position myself here on 40s….
Light, very light drops. We’ll get our long targets at $4484.73. Easy.
It’s a next week job for uncle ling maybe or uncle trump.
$4318 remains the super handle and scale ins or profiles can made from this handle.
Luv to all!!!! ❤️
Bleed for me 🩸
Interest rate cuts and safe-haven support gold. 4,400 is unstoppInformation Summary:
Spot gold surged strongly in early Asian trading on Friday, surging over 1.2% to a record high of $4,379.38 per ounce. Gold prices have risen nearly 9% this week and are expected to continue rising for nine consecutive weeks. This surge is primarily driven by strong market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in October and December, coupled with a surge in SPDR gold holdings, which has boosted bullish sentiment.
In addition to monetary policy expectations, multiple positive factors are fueling gold's upward momentum. The risk of a US government shutdown and the tense international trade situation continue to attract safe-haven funds to gold. At the same time, the continued gold purchases by central banks of many countries around the world and the long-term trend of "de-dollarization" have fundamentally consolidated the support for gold. Amidst increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainty, gold's safe-haven properties are becoming more prominent, and analysts believe that a challenge to the $4,400 mark may be just around the corner.
Market Analysis:
Technically, after a strong breakout above key resistance at $4,200, gold is now approaching the psychologically important $4,400 level, maintaining its short-term bullish trend.
The trading strategy recommends focusing on whether the market can continue to be strong, but be wary of the risk of profit-taking at high levels. A conservative strategy should prioritize buying on dips, with the key support range moving up to $4,310-4,300. If prices fall back to this area and find effective support, it would be a good opportunity to go long with the trend, targeting a new high of $4,400. However, it is crucial to note that an unexpected break below $4,300 could trigger a significant technical correction, potentially leading to a deeper correction towards $4,250.
Therefore, caution is advised when pursuing long positions at current highs, with strict stop-loss orders in place.
Trading strategy:
Buy stocks in batches when the price dips back to the 4320-4315 range. Set a stop-loss at 4310. Profit range: 4360-4370-4390.
XAUUSD 17-19 Oct 2025Gold Spot Price remaining strong with true zeros well below however price targets shifting slightly up into end of Week.
Monitoring 4238-4260 for Profit Taking & focusing on potential Long entries from with 4199, 4164 4130 4108 or 4075 & Below.
I do not foresee price achieving any move substantial below 4064-4021
*Not advice, personal thoughts ONLY.
Gold to 4300 peak. Massive liquidation around 4300Gold is over extended to the upside. Bullish dollar seems on the horizon, as it confirmed CHOC to the upside. By analyzing the massive wave, I can infer from past experience with gold, that the leg to the upside is getting exhausted at 4300, warranting a very strong bearish momentum to the downside. Massive correction possible around 4300 as shown in my chart analysis.
I have been analyzing gold for very long time. My first nominations for the gold's peak was 3500 in 2023. However, after looking at the price behavior, it seems this is similar to the post covid leg. It is only a matter of catching the breakout zones, and drawing a resistance line on those peaks. You have Feb 2024 and May 2019 inducement, where the breakout begins. You can easily plot your way up from there.
Explosive Battle Ahead — Can Gold Smash Through 4180 Again?Gold retreated $90 from 4180 to around 4090, then hit the 4100-4090 area twice before rebounding, and is currently consolidating around 4150. Although the short-term retracement of gold is not small, it is obvious that it has not destroyed the upward trend and pattern structure. However, it has exacerbated market differences to a certain extent and also increased short-term volatility. First, 4160 represents the 23.6% retracement level. Next, we must closely monitor two areas. First, 4160 represents the 23.6% retracement level of the recent short-term rally. If gold fails to break through this area during its subsequent rebound, it could form a technical M-shaped double top with the 4180 high in the short term, favoring a downward trend for gold and potentially leading to a further correction.
Second, we must pay close attention to the area around 4125, which represents the 61.8% retracement level of the recent short-term rally. If gold remains above 4125 during its subsequent pullback, it indicates that the bullish trend in gold has not ended and that it may continue to reach new highs.
Based on the above considerations, regarding short-term trading:
1. First, we can consider shorting gold in small quantities in the 4150-4160 area, and then patiently wait for gold to retrace.
2. Once gold retreats to the 4125-4115 area, we can try to go long again, and then patiently wait for gold to rebound further, or even retest the recent high near 4180.
Gold → Ready for the Next Bullish WaveGold (XAUUSD) continues to gain momentum as shifting global conditions drive investors toward safer assets. The ongoing uncertainty in financial markets, coupled with renewed concerns over U.S. fiscal policy and interest rate adjustments, has strengthened gold’s long-term appeal.
Recent market behavior reflects consistent institutional demand, with traders positioning ahead of potential monetary easing cycles. As confidence in traditional currencies weakens, gold remains a preferred store of value for both investors and central banks.
Structurally, the market is maintaining a healthy uptrend, showing controlled corrections within a broader bullish framework. The latest price movements suggest that momentum is building for another upward phase, possibly targeting new historical zones if global instability persists.
In summary, gold’s outlook stays constructive — supported by both macroeconomic sentiment and steady technical momentum.
How do you see the XAUUSD trajectory evolving — continuation of growth or a major pause ahead?
Gold Holding Gains Ahead of Key US CPI DataGold extends its bullish momentum in early Asian trading, hovering near $4,370, supported by rate-cut expectations from the Fed and ongoing US government shutdown concerns, which continue to pressure the USD.
According to CME FedWatch, markets are now pricing in a 99% probability of another rate cut next week — a strong catalyst for gold bulls.
Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, reinforcing the medium-term uptrend.
However, all eyes are on the US September CPI report due later this week.
A hotter-than-expected reading could temporarily lift the USD and trigger short-term volatility in gold prices.
🔍 MMFlow Technical Outlook
Gold is currently consolidating around the $4,320–$4,370 range after reaching the ATH zone.
Price action shows a clear liquidity sweep at the highs, followed by a minor retracement — still within the bullish structure.
The main trendline remains intact, suggesting that any dip toward $4,305–$4,260 may attract new buyers.
⚙️ Trading Plan (MMFlow View)
BUY SCALP Setup
Entry: 4,302 – 4,300 (½ volume)
Stop Loss: 4,292
Take Profit: 4,310 → 4,315 → 4,320 → 4,330 → 4,340 → 4,350+
BUY ZONE (Swing)
Entry: 4,260 – 4,258
Stop Loss: 4,252
Take Profit: 4,265 → 4,270 → 4,280 → 4,290 → 4,300+
📈 Buy setups remain favored as long as price holds above 4,260.
Intraday sell reactions near 4,360–4,378 are short-term only — watch for liquidity grabs and bullish re-entry opportunities.
⚡️ Key MMFlow Zones
CP Down Zone / OBS Sell Zone: 4,360
ATH Liquidity Sell Zone: 4,448
Retest Trendline / OBS Buy Zone: 4,305
End FVG Uptrend / OBS Buy Zone: 4,260
Sentiment: 🟢 Bullish Bias
Bias Confirmation: CPI Data & Fed Rate Expectations
Strategy: Buy-the-Dip → Target Liquidity Above 4,370–4,380
🔥 Stay patient — let liquidity drive the next leg. MMFlow tracks smart money zones, not emotions.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Gold Near Potential Wave 5 Reversal PointGold Price Action Analysis - Potential Wave 5 Setup (sub waves within Wave A going down)
Wave Structure Overview
The current structure on the 15-minute chart appears to be unfolding in a classic 5-wave impulsive sequence:
Wave (1) — Initial sell-off following local top formation.
Wave (2) — Sharp retracement, testing previous supply, rejected at previous premarket range high (Friday US Stocks premarket high)
Wave (3) — Strong impulsive move down with expanding volume, typical of a wave 3 extension.
It respected one of our previous opening range high (lower yellow level).
Wave (4) — Counter-trend rally into a prior supply block / zone, showing hesitation and rejection. (we are likely done, since it had retraced to 0.5 Fib of Wave 3), i am not ruling out where we may have one more small wave up before we get into the real wave (5).
Wave (5) — Still developing, assuming wave (4) is done, we are likely to push into the lower yellow demand zone, where either continuation or a significant rebound may occur.
One scenario that can happen is that we double bottom where wave 5 meet end of wave 3, and we start a corrective wave up which is a potential Wave B going up.
🟧 Key Levels to Watch
Upper Zone (around 4271–4290)
This zone aligns with the ORH level and prior Wave (4) rejection area.
➝ If broken with strong momentum, it can invalidate the immediate bearish Wave 5 scenario and hint at a deeper retracement or new bullish structure.
Lower Zone (around 4198–4181)
This is a strong demand zone, confluence with Wave (3) extension targets and potential end of Wave (5).
➝ Price reaction here is crucial: either we see a clean 5-wave completion and rebound, or further downside acceleration.
📊 Momentum Confirmation (MACD)
The MACD shows a decelerating bearish momentum going into Wave (5), which fits the classic pattern where Wave 3 has the strongest momentum and Wave 5 often shows divergence or a weaker push.
If MACD prints a higher low while price makes a lower low, that would confirm bullish divergence, a common reversal signal after an impulse.
📝 Trading Implications
Scenario A — Bounce at Demand Zone:
Look for reversal signals or bullish divergence near 4180–4198 to confirm the end of Wave (5). Potential short-covering rally could take us close to 4300
Scenario B — Breakdown Below Demand Zone:
A clean break and close below 4180 may open the door to extended bearish continuation — likely a larger degree correction or Wave C structure.
Invalidation:
A move and acceptance above the upper ORH zone would invalidate this short-term bearish count.
Final Thoughts
This setup is technically clean:
Clear Elliott structure
Key liquidity zones mapped
Momentum oscillator in sync with price action
⚠️ But remember, Wave 5s can truncate or extend, so flexibility is key. Watch how price behaves at the lower yellow zone — that’s where the next big move could be born.