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Interest rate cuts and safe-haven support gold. 4,400 is unstoppInformation Summary: Spot gold surged strongly in early Asian trading on Friday, surging over 1.2% to a record high of $4,379.38 per ounce. Gold prices have risen nearly 9% this week and are expected to continue rising for nine consecutive weeks. This surge is primarily driven by strong market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in October and December, coupled with a surge in SPDR gold holdings, which has boosted bullish sentiment. In addition to monetary policy expectations, multiple positive factors are fueling gold's upward momentum. The risk of a US government shutdown and the tense international trade situation continue to attract safe-haven funds to gold. At the same time, the continued gold purchases by central banks of many countries around the world and the long-term trend of "de-dollarization" have fundamentally consolidated the support for gold. Amidst increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainty, gold's safe-haven properties are becoming more prominent, and analysts believe that a challenge to the $4,400 mark may be just around the corner. Market Analysis: Technically, after a strong breakout above key resistance at $4,200, gold is now approaching the psychologically important $4,400 level, maintaining its short-term bullish trend. The trading strategy recommends focusing on whether the market can continue to be strong, but be wary of the risk of profit-taking at high levels. A conservative strategy should prioritize buying on dips, with the key support range moving up to $4,310-4,300. If prices fall back to this area and find effective support, it would be a good opportunity to go long with the trend, targeting a new high of $4,400. However, it is crucial to note that an unexpected break below $4,300 could trigger a significant technical correction, potentially leading to a deeper correction towards $4,250. Therefore, caution is advised when pursuing long positions at current highs, with strict stop-loss orders in place. Trading strategy: Buy stocks in batches when the price dips back to the 4320-4315 range. Set a stop-loss at 4310. Profit range: 4360-4370-4390.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Market_Trader1
Gold to 4300 peak. Massive liquidation around 4300Gold is over extended to the upside. Bullish dollar seems on the horizon, as it confirmed CHOC to the upside. By analyzing the massive wave, I can infer from past experience with gold, that the leg to the upside is getting exhausted at 4300, warranting a very strong bearish momentum to the downside. Massive correction possible around 4300 as shown in my chart analysis. I have been analyzing gold for very long time. My first nominations for the gold's peak was 3500 in 2023. However, after looking at the price behavior, it seems this is similar to the post covid leg. It is only a matter of catching the breakout zones, and drawing a resistance line on those peaks. You have Feb 2024 and May 2019 inducement, where the breakout begins. You can easily plot your way up from there.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by bahiyab
Explosive Battle Ahead — Can Gold Smash Through 4180 Again?Gold retreated $90 from 4180 to around 4090, then hit the 4100-4090 area twice before rebounding, and is currently consolidating around 4150. Although the short-term retracement of gold is not small, it is obvious that it has not destroyed the upward trend and pattern structure. However, it has exacerbated market differences to a certain extent and also increased short-term volatility. First, 4160 represents the 23.6% retracement level. Next, we must closely monitor two areas. First, 4160 represents the 23.6% retracement level of the recent short-term rally. If gold fails to break through this area during its subsequent rebound, it could form a technical M-shaped double top with the 4180 high in the short term, favoring a downward trend for gold and potentially leading to a further correction. Second, we must pay close attention to the area around 4125, which represents the 61.8% retracement level of the recent short-term rally. If gold remains above 4125 during its subsequent pullback, it indicates that the bullish trend in gold has not ended and that it may continue to reach new highs. Based on the above considerations, regarding short-term trading: 1. First, we can consider shorting gold in small quantities in the 4150-4160 area, and then patiently wait for gold to retrace. 2. Once gold retreats to the 4125-4115 area, we can try to go long again, and then patiently wait for gold to rebound further, or even retest the recent high near 4180.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WaveRider_Steffen
Gold → Ready for the Next Bullish WaveGold (XAUUSD) continues to gain momentum as shifting global conditions drive investors toward safer assets. The ongoing uncertainty in financial markets, coupled with renewed concerns over U.S. fiscal policy and interest rate adjustments, has strengthened gold’s long-term appeal. Recent market behavior reflects consistent institutional demand, with traders positioning ahead of potential monetary easing cycles. As confidence in traditional currencies weakens, gold remains a preferred store of value for both investors and central banks. Structurally, the market is maintaining a healthy uptrend, showing controlled corrections within a broader bullish framework. The latest price movements suggest that momentum is building for another upward phase, possibly targeting new historical zones if global instability persists. In summary, gold’s outlook stays constructive — supported by both macroeconomic sentiment and steady technical momentum. How do you see the XAUUSD trajectory evolving — continuation of growth or a major pause ahead?
TVC:GOLDLong
by XAU_EMPIRE
Gold Holding Gains Ahead of Key US CPI DataGold extends its bullish momentum in early Asian trading, hovering near $4,370, supported by rate-cut expectations from the Fed and ongoing US government shutdown concerns, which continue to pressure the USD. According to CME FedWatch, markets are now pricing in a 99% probability of another rate cut next week — a strong catalyst for gold bulls. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, reinforcing the medium-term uptrend. However, all eyes are on the US September CPI report due later this week. A hotter-than-expected reading could temporarily lift the USD and trigger short-term volatility in gold prices. 🔍 MMFlow Technical Outlook Gold is currently consolidating around the $4,320–$4,370 range after reaching the ATH zone. Price action shows a clear liquidity sweep at the highs, followed by a minor retracement — still within the bullish structure. The main trendline remains intact, suggesting that any dip toward $4,305–$4,260 may attract new buyers. ⚙️ Trading Plan (MMFlow View) BUY SCALP Setup Entry: 4,302 – 4,300 (½ volume) Stop Loss: 4,292 Take Profit: 4,310 → 4,315 → 4,320 → 4,330 → 4,340 → 4,350+ BUY ZONE (Swing) Entry: 4,260 – 4,258 Stop Loss: 4,252 Take Profit: 4,265 → 4,270 → 4,280 → 4,290 → 4,300+ 📈 Buy setups remain favored as long as price holds above 4,260. Intraday sell reactions near 4,360–4,378 are short-term only — watch for liquidity grabs and bullish re-entry opportunities. ⚡️ Key MMFlow Zones CP Down Zone / OBS Sell Zone: 4,360 ATH Liquidity Sell Zone: 4,448 Retest Trendline / OBS Buy Zone: 4,305 End FVG Uptrend / OBS Buy Zone: 4,260 Sentiment: 🟢 Bullish Bias Bias Confirmation: CPI Data & Fed Rate Expectations Strategy: Buy-the-Dip → Target Liquidity Above 4,370–4,380 🔥 Stay patient — let liquidity drive the next leg. MMFlow tracks smart money zones, not emotions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
Elliott Wave Analysis: Gold Near Potential Wave 5 Reversal PointGold Price Action Analysis - Potential Wave 5 Setup (sub waves within Wave A going down) Wave Structure Overview The current structure on the 15-minute chart appears to be unfolding in a classic 5-wave impulsive sequence: Wave (1) — Initial sell-off following local top formation. Wave (2) — Sharp retracement, testing previous supply, rejected at previous premarket range high (Friday US Stocks premarket high) Wave (3) — Strong impulsive move down with expanding volume, typical of a wave 3 extension. It respected one of our previous opening range high (lower yellow level). Wave (4) — Counter-trend rally into a prior supply block / zone, showing hesitation and rejection. (we are likely done, since it had retraced to 0.5 Fib of Wave 3), i am not ruling out where we may have one more small wave up before we get into the real wave (5). Wave (5) — Still developing, assuming wave (4) is done, we are likely to push into the lower yellow demand zone, where either continuation or a significant rebound may occur. One scenario that can happen is that we double bottom where wave 5 meet end of wave 3, and we start a corrective wave up which is a potential Wave B going up. 🟧 Key Levels to Watch Upper Zone (around 4271–4290) This zone aligns with the ORH level and prior Wave (4) rejection area. ➝ If broken with strong momentum, it can invalidate the immediate bearish Wave 5 scenario and hint at a deeper retracement or new bullish structure. Lower Zone (around 4198–4181) This is a strong demand zone, confluence with Wave (3) extension targets and potential end of Wave (5). ➝ Price reaction here is crucial: either we see a clean 5-wave completion and rebound, or further downside acceleration. 📊 Momentum Confirmation (MACD) The MACD shows a decelerating bearish momentum going into Wave (5), which fits the classic pattern where Wave 3 has the strongest momentum and Wave 5 often shows divergence or a weaker push. If MACD prints a higher low while price makes a lower low, that would confirm bullish divergence, a common reversal signal after an impulse. 📝 Trading Implications Scenario A — Bounce at Demand Zone: Look for reversal signals or bullish divergence near 4180–4198 to confirm the end of Wave (5). Potential short-covering rally could take us close to 4300 Scenario B — Breakdown Below Demand Zone: A clean break and close below 4180 may open the door to extended bearish continuation — likely a larger degree correction or Wave C structure. Invalidation: A move and acceptance above the upper ORH zone would invalidate this short-term bearish count. Final Thoughts This setup is technically clean: Clear Elliott structure Key liquidity zones mapped Momentum oscillator in sync with price action ⚠️ But remember, Wave 5s can truncate or extend, so flexibility is key. Watch how price behaves at the lower yellow zone — that’s where the next big move could be born.
TVC:GOLD
by polarity
GOLD REMAIND BULLISH WITH IN 4H ANALYSIS BASED ON CHARTTrend: Strong uptrend within a rising channel Key Zones: Resistance: $4,350 – $4,400 Support: $4,050 – $4,100 Major Demand Zone: $3,950 – $4,000 Analysis: 1. Uptrend Confirmation: Gold is trading inside a clear ascending channel, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows. Momentum remains bullish, supported by strong impulsive candles. 2. Resistance Reaction: Price recently touched the upper boundary (resistance zone) near $4,350 – $4,400 and faced rejection. This is a natural pullback zone as buyers take profits. 3. Possible Pullback Setup: The current short-term correction appears healthy within the trend. Price may retest mid-channel support or the $4,200 area before continuing upward. 4. Bullish Continuation Expected: As long as price stays above $4,100, the uptrend structure remains intact. A bounce from the current or lower support levels could push gold toward $4,400 – $4,450 again.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Zickey_11
Gold: Outlook for Next Week📈The recent strong bullish momentum in gold finally saw a technical correction on Friday. After Friday’s pullback, the previous robust upward trend has softened slightly. Gold came under pressure at the intraday high around 4379 and pulled back to a low near 4186, representing a nearly 200 downward move. This perfectly illustrates that the stronger the bullish momentum, the larger the pullback range,bulls and bears complement each other. I have also repeatedly warned everyone against chasing long positions at high levels, as such trades carry significant risks. In practice, I also timely reminded everyone to take profits and exit positions, emphasizing that risk awareness must be a top priority. 💎Outlook for Next Week When the market opens next week, we will first focus on the resistance around the 4280-4295 range. If this level fails to be broken, gold will likely enter a short-term technical correction phase, and the current bullish cycle will be put on hold temporarily. we should currently focus on the short-term resistance around the 4280-4295 range, with key attention on the resistance near the 4315-4325 level. On the downside, monitor the support around the 4185-4195 range. If the bulls fail to achieve a sustained breakthrough above these resistance levels, gold will likely enter a period of oscillating correction in the subsequent sessions. For trading operations, prioritize seizing opportunities within the aforementioned range. Adopt a "watch more, trade less" approach for prices in the middle of the range,avoid chasing trades recklessly and wait patiently for entry points at key levels.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Clarke_analysis
Fri 17 Oct - Market Update (Potentially Next Week Moves)The market shifted bearish on the lower time frames. Daily is still bullish. But on lower, indicating a retracement/down move. Let's see how deep it will go. #1 Push further down to the 4281 area, and then either drop or buyers get in and bring the price up again. #2 Price starts the uptrend by completing a 3h/4h candle close. Which will then indicate the uptrend starting again toward the break at level 4342. IF broken and tested with a candle close on 15m/30m, we then confirm the uptrend to the ATH or further to the next psychological level 4425. That's it for now. Let's see how today plays out. Let me know if you prefer the details of price action I see in the analysis or just the chart with drawings? Hope it's helpful for you guys! Just sharing what I've learn so far in my journey. If you are just getting started, hold on tied and NEVER give up. You'll make it. It's just a matter of time for you to start seeing the results. Just keep learning and practising, you'll be there soon! The losses are just part of the journey, and our initiation fees in the markets. Soon it will all be paid back 100x 😉 Just never STOP improving. Thanks for being here! @TeamWePrint
OANDA:XAUUSD
by WePrint
Bulls are taking off. Please maintain your bullish strategy.Gold rose steadily after the Asian market opened on Thursday, reaching a high near 4242 before retreating. It reached a low near 4203 before continuing its advance, a so-called symbolic pullback. The magnitude of this move does appear to be favorable, offering traders an opportunity to enter the long position. However, this strong market also creates confusion for traders. Going long during the rally fears a price correction, while going short fears continued bullish momentum. Current trading is heavily influenced by luck. The US market continued its upward trend on Thursday, reaching a high near 4330. The strength continued in early Asian trading on Friday, reaching a high near 4380. Amidst this frenzied market, all we can do is patiently wait for a pullback before entering the long position. After all, conservative trading is more rational at this point. Support below is near 4315, a peak-to-trough reversal point. This level can also be considered as a short-term entry point. Faced with the absolute dominance of bulls, the market has become somewhat helpless, and continuing to chase long positions carries the risk of a pullback. Quaid recommends strictly controlling stop-loss orders to avoid significant losses from a deep price correction. Trading Strategy: Go long on a pullback near 4315-4310, with a stop loss at 4305 and a profit range of 4380-4390. Aggressive traders can enter the long position after a 20-point pullback, but please consider your trading capital carefully before entering.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Market_Trader1
1
Gold Bullish Continuation Toward 4,300 TargetTrend Direction: The overall structure is clearly bullish, with price continuing to rise after breaking previous resistance levels. Price Action: After a strong impulsive move upward, a small corrective phase (pullback) is visible — represented by the zigzag arrow — suggesting a healthy retracement before continuation. Key Zone: The highlighted blue-green box marks a demand or fair value gap (FVG) region where buyers previously entered strongly, likely acting as a support area for future pullbacks. Current Price: Around $4,195.84, maintaining bullish momentum. Target: The projection line points toward a target zone near $4,300, indicating the next resistance or profit-taking level. Overall Sentiment: Bullish continuation toward the upper target, provided the price sustains above the previous support zone around $4,100–$4,000.
GBEBROKERS:XAUUSDLong
by fx_martin9
2
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (16/10/2025) 🔹 MOMENTUM D1: Currently, the daily momentum has formed five consecutive bullish candles and is now approaching the overbought zone. 👉 This indicates a high probability of a correction within the next 1–2 days. H4: Momentum on H4 is still rising. Today, the price may continue to climb slightly or move sideways to push H4 momentum into the overbought zone before a potential reversal. H1: Momentum on H1 is also nearing the overbought zone, suggesting that a short-term pullback could occur during the Asian session. ________________________________________ 🔹 WAVE STRUCTURE D1 Chart: The structure remains within an extended Wave (5). With D1 momentum about to enter the overbought area and this bullish phase already lasting for five candles, there is a strong chance of a correction today or tomorrow. H4 Chart: The price is currently in orange Wave (5), while purple Wave (3) is still unfolding. Since H4 momentum is rising, price may extend slightly higher or consolidate sideways before a possible reversal. H1 Chart: Price is now in yellow Wave (5), where five minor blue waves have been completed. The price zone around 4242.89 corresponds to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of blue Waves 1–3. Within blue Wave (5), we can also count five smaller black sub-waves, and interestingly, 4242.89 again aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci level of black Waves 1–3. ➡️ This creates a strong resistance area, from which a deep correction forming purple Wave (4) is highly possible. ________________________________________ 🔹 TRADING PLAN • Avoid holding long positions for too long — this stage is best suited for short-term scalp trades. • Focus on observing price action and waiting for a confirmed top formation before planning any Swing setups. • Sometimes, staying on the sidelines is the best strategy. 👉 I will update the Swing signal once a clearer confirmation appears.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by WavePoint_FX
Correction down for goldHi traders, Last week gold went up some more and started a correction down. This could become a bigger correction but at the moment we could see one more move down for next week. Let's see what price does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small correction up on a lower timeframe and a change in orderflow to bearish to trade (short term) shorts. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with wave analysis, please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EduwaveTrading
XAU/USD 21 October 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis and bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 20 October 2025. Price has printed as per previous intraday expectation by printing a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms, bullish pullback phase initiation. Price is currently trading within an established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with regards to depth of pullback. Intraday expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 4,380. 990. Note: The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively. Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Analysis and bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 20 October 2025. I have been mentioning in my alternative scenario for almost 1-month that all higher timeframes are requiring a pullback, and we are seeing a narrowing of internal structure, price could target strong internal low. This is how price printed. Price has printed a bearish iBOS after a very long duration and subsequently a bullish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm bullish pullback phase initiation. The bearish iBOS has also confirmed the swing-high. Intraday expectation: Price to continue bullish, react at either premium of 50%, or M15 demand zone, before targeting weak internal low priced at 4,185.910. Note: Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment. Additionally, President Trump’s tariff announcements, particularly against China, are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for October 20Gold Technical Analysis Daily Resistance: 4380, Support: 4100 4-Hour Resistance: 4314, Support: 4180 1-Hour Resistance: 4275, Support: 4220 Last Friday, gold prices retreated after hitting $4380, dropping nearly $200 intraday to a low of around $4186. The decline stems from both the previous excessive price increase and the strengthening US dollar and tariff policy changes. Regardless, this significant decline in gold prices is bound to raise market concerns about future trends. From the weekly chart, despite a sharp rise, the market retreated after a surge. Friday's daily chart nearly reversed Thursday's gains. The 4-hour MACD indicator formed a downward death cross, suggesting that short-term market volatility is at least inevitable. What is certain is that the bull market in gold's major cycle has not ended. This so-called major cycle is measured on an annual basis, meaning next year's average price will undoubtedly be higher than this year's. As for whether the market will continue to fall this week, this possibility cannot be ruled out. After this week's rebound, if it fails to hold above 4300, there is still a chance that it will test the 4200 or even 4100 levels below. For intraday trading, sell high and buy low. The market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Selling range: SELL: near 4275 SELL: near 4315 BUY: near 4220 BUY: near 4180 More analysis👉
TVC:GOLDShort
by ActuaryJ