GOLD: Bearish Continuation & Short Signal
GOLD
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short GOLD
Entry Point - 3650.7
Stop Loss - 3658.4
Take Profit - 3635.5
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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GOLDMINICFD trade ideas
Excellent Profits of current Bull runAs discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: My position: I am constantly using my dip Buying strategy and will continue Buying Gold from my key entry points (excellent Profits by now) Buying Gold from #3,630.80 many times throughout yesterday's session. #3,645.80 is keeping Gold away from touching #3,652.80 benchmark.
I have firstly waited for #3,645.80 and Bought Gold aggressively (#7 orders with #50 Volume) closed all on #3,651.80 and waited for second chance to re-Buy Gold on #3,627.80 reversal which delivered excellent Profits.
My position: As advised many times, do not Sell Gold at all costs as wherever you Buy Gold on this market, you won't be wrong. I have Bought Gold on #3,652.80 and #3,654.80 minutes ago and closed all on #3,657.80 extension. Keep Buying Gold on each dip is my practical suggestion.
THIS COULD BE THE RIGHT MOMENT TO SELL GOLD- CHART TALKPrice has been moving bullish and breaking structures. Which has been showing how buyers are willing to take price higher. This afternoon, price made a new all time high of 3674.63 and strongly rejected off that price zone. I believe the momentum of buyers are beginning to slow down and also, we can see a consolidation that’s currently occurring between the price of 3655 and 3627 this could be a distribution stage that could lead to price making a significant correction( a short-term bearish trend) As we all know that after impulse follows correction. therefore, I expect price to drop to a level of 3581 and 3511 respectively. Take advantage of this beautiful opportunity and capitalize on it.
Gold Technical Analysis (XAU/USD# Gold Technical Analysis (XAU/USD)
On the 30M chart, several important factors suggest a potential correction:
1️⃣ The **Green Trendline** has been broken, with the key level at **3471**.
2️⃣ A possible **Retracement of the bullish leg** is aligned around the **3480 zone**.
3️⃣ The **Inducement structure** also confirms this corrective scenario.
🔻 With these confluences, the probability of a pullback towards the **3480 region** increases, marking it as a critical demand/retracement area.
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📉 **Trade Idea (Educational):**
- **Entry:** 3585
- **Take Profit 1:** 3575
- **Take Profit 2:** 3555
- **Take Profit 3:** 3525
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📊 **Key Levels to Watch:**
- 3471 (broken trendline)
- 3480 (retracement target)
- 3323 (deeper correction zone)
⚠️ This outlook and trade idea are for educational purposes only, not financial advice.
GOLD Will Grow! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for GOLD.
Time Frame: 45m
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 3,644.30.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 3,666.76 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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Gold Breakout: Exhaustion Risk into Fresh Record HighGold is breaking uptrend resistance today with price stretching to fresh record highs. An embedded channel highlights the next technical hurdle at the 300% extension of the 2011 decline at 3666- risk for topside exhaustion / price inflection into this threshold IF reached.
Initial support now rests back at 3600 with near-term bullish invalidation raised to 3578- losses should be limited to this threshold IF price is heading higher on this stretch. A topside breach / daily close above channel resistance exposes the 1.618% extension of the May advance at 3782.
-MB
(Alchemy) Gold Punches More All-Time HighsGold continues its march higher.
There appears to be a triangle formation from April 2025 to July 2025 labeled A-B-C-D-E.
We know from our Elliott wave studies that triangles appear at certain places within the larger wave count. Triangles, in most situations, are the 2nd to last wave of the sequence.
In the case for gold, this implies the rally is the final wave of a larger bullish sequence.
There are a cluster of wave relationships appearing near $3,680 . This might provide the end to a wave 3. Once those 5-waves count off to the upside, the risk of another bearish or sideways pattern increases.
XAUUSD - CPI and Unemployment Claims Support Gold!The XAUUSD chart on the 4-hour timeframe shows a strong upward trend, with gold continuously making higher highs and higher lows within an ascending price channel. The support level at $3,608.000 is solid, and if the price breaks the resistance at $3,720.000, the next target could be $3,760.000.
Today's CPI data shows that core CPI m/m and CPI month-over-month both increased by 0.3%, higher than the previous month's forecast of 0.2%. This could fuel expectations that the Fed will maintain a high-interest-rate policy, strengthening the USD and potentially putting pressure on gold. However, the actual unemployment claims were 237K, close to the forecast of 235K, suggesting that the economy remains stable but not strong enough to push the USD higher, which continues to support gold.
Despite the rising CPI data, the stability in unemployment claims keeps gold in an upward trend. Therefore, the Buy strategy remains the priority. Be patient and manage risk carefully when entering trades!
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would continue with the chart we shared for Jackson Hole as it was going to plan and the move was expected to continue. We said we would be looking for the red box to be tapped and as long as it didn’t break, a move downside into the lower red box defence was likely. This move worked nearly to the pip giving traders a nice short trade. We then said, as long as we’re above the defence box, we’ll continue the range and look for more upside, which as you can see again played well between the boxes and then the break occurred, giving us the move upside.
A decent week in Camelot, not only on Gold but the numerous other pairs we trade and apply the algo to.
So, what can we expect from the week ahead?
Many traders will be looking at this and thinking we’re too high and stretched here to attempt a long, which is the right plan for now. Having said that, we’re not discounting a move upside during the early session, with the first level above being the 3455-60 region. It’s this region, if rejected, that can give traders the potential opportunity to attempt the short trade initially into the 3440-35 region which is the level that needs to be watched if attacked for a break.
Above, that key level 3460 is the region bulls need to push us over with volume in order for us to then look at targeting higher pricing with levels above 3468 and above that 3485-90
There isn’t a lot on the fundamental front this week apart from NFP on Friday so expect there to be a lot of choppy price action and ranging towards the middle of the week pre-event.
KOG’s bias of the week:
No bias for the week, we’ll release the daily bias instead and play level to level
RED BOX TARGETS:
Break above 3450 for 3455, 3462, 3468 and 3480 in extension of the move
Break below 3440 for 3436, 3430 and 3422 in extension of the move
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As always, trade safe.
KOG
Cyclic Patterns Point to 600-Pip Downside in GoldUnfortunately, gold failed to reach the expected 3620 target area during the pullback. It only touched around 3628 in the early morning hours before rebounding again. During this period, because I saw that gold could not fall below 3628, and even could not fall below 3630 at one point, I promptly closed all short positions near 3630. Although the two transactions suffered losses due to the slightly lower entry price, because we added short positions near 3636 and 3646, the overall profit was still $10K.
Gold has now rebounded again and continued its upward trend to around 3657, continuing its upward trend. However, aside from opportunities to enter the long position in the 3630-3628 area, there are virtually no other good long entry opportunities. Judging from the current trend, gold still has the potential to continue to rise to around 3665, but since I missed the opportunity to enter the long position at 3630-3628, I will never choose to chase the rise of gold now.
Although the current uptrend is strong, even if you short gold, there are always opportunities to exit safely and profit during the day. Therefore, I still plan to try to short gold in the 3655-3665 area. Of course, keep my tips from yesterday in mind when shorting. When you first try shorting gold today, try to use a small lot size. When adding positions, you can appropriately increase the number of trading lots to increase the average price and increase profit margins. From a shorting perspective, it is relatively safer!
At present, I will pay close attention to the short-term support area of 3640-3630, followed by the area of 3610-3600. Don’t subjectively think that gold will not pull back to the 3610-3600 area, because in the previous band, after gold experienced three 200pips fluctuation retracements, the fourth retracement reached 660pips; and now gold has experienced three 200pips fluctuation retracements again. If it follows the cycle, gold may usher in another retracement of about 600pips, that is, reaching the 3610-3600 area.
XAUUSD4HTrading Outlook for the Upcoming Week
In this series of analyses, we review trading perspectives and short-term outlooks.
As can be seen, in each analysis there is a key support/resistance zone near the current price of the asset. The market’s reaction to—or breakout from—this zone will determine the next price movement toward the specified levels.
Important Note: The purpose of these trading outlooks is to highlight key levels ahead of the price and the market’s potential reactions to them. The analyses provided are by no means trading signals!
Bulls vs Bears: Race to 3700 or 3600 ?!Currently, gold is fluctuating above the 3640 line. We can clearly see that gold has not effectively fallen below 3640 during multiple pullbacks in the short term. This proves that during the pullback period of gold, a lot of funds have entered the market, thereby pushing the gold price to fluctuate upward. However, during the upward fluctuation, gold encountered resistance and fell back in the 3655-3660 area many times, exacerbating the short-term volatility trend!
But we need to note that gold has rebounded since 3620 and formed a band-like low point structure; and it has tested 3640 many times and has not fallen below it, showing signs of forming a band-like secondary low point structure. Judging from the characteristics of the low point gradually rising, the current bullish force has a slight advantage, so short-term trading is still dominated by going long on gold.
Judging from the current structure, the short-term support area below is located in the 3635-3625 area, followed by the 3615-3605 area; and the short-term resistance is located near 3660. If gold breaks through the area near 3660 during the volatile upward process, gold may test the high point area near 3675. Once the high point near 3675 is refreshed again, it is expected to directly touch around 3700.
Therefore, it is not completely certain that gold has peaked at present, and we should not blindly chase short gold in trading; on the contrary, when gold retreats to the support area of 3635-3625, we can try to go long on gold, first aiming at the target area: 3660-3670, and once it breaks through this area, the target area will be postponed to the 3690-3700 area.
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
After completing Bullish Targets 3458 and 3477 yesterday, we got the EMA5 cross and lock above 3477, which opened 3497. That level was hit perfectly today. With no lock above, we confirmed the rejection, and now price is showing support and bounce at 3477.
We are now seeing play between 3497 and 3477 and will need ema5 cross and lock to confirm the next move.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3458 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3458 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3477 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3477 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3497 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3497 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3513
BEARISH TARGETS
3439
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3439 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3417
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3417 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3395
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3395 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3369
3352
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3395 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3336
3315
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
likely rebound; breaking below → retest of 3,418 support.1. Overall Trend
Gold has just experienced a very strong rally, creating a peak around 3,674 – 3,675.
After touching the red resistance trendline, price showed signs of reversal and is now in a correction.
The structure looks like an ABC corrective wave (Elliott/Zigzag type).
2. Key Fibonacci Levels
Fibonacci is drawn from the latest swing low to the new high, important levels are:
0.382: 3,418 – overlaps with a strong support zone (purple box).
0.5: 3,468 – psychological midpoint, potential buy zone.
0.618: 3,516 – golden ratio, often a strong reversal point.
0.786: 3,586 – if broken decisively, price may retest the strong support around 3,418.
3. Possible Scenarios
Scenario 1 (main):
Price corrects down to the Fib 0.618–0.786 (3,516 – 3,586) area, then bounces higher. This is a “buy on dip” zone if reversal signals appear.
Scenario 2 (bearish):
If selling pressure is strong, price could break lower and head toward the major support around 3,418 – 3,420 (confluence of Fib 0.382 and prior structure support).
Scenario 3 (less likely):
Price holds above the dotted trendline → retests 3,674. But this scenario has lower probability since a corrective pattern is forming.
4. Short-Term Trading Suggestions
Buy strategy: Wait for price to reach 3,516 – 3,586 and look for bullish reversal signals (pin bar, engulfing). Stop loss below 3,500.
Sell strategy: If price breaks below 3,586 with strong momentum/volume, short-term sell targets are 3,516 – 3,468.
👉 In summary: Gold is in a corrective phase after a sharp rally. The 3,516 – 3,586 zone will decide the short-term direction. Holding above it → likely rebound; breaking below → retest of 3,418 support.
GOLD hits $3,600 target, market focuses on CPIOANDA:XAUUSD continued to surge, hitting a record high of $3,600/ounce on Friday, following unusually weak U.S. non-farm payrolls data. The market now believes there is a 10% chance the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, leaving investors wary of the risk of a significant rate cut at this meeting.
The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September
According to the CME's "Fed Watch" tool, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 0, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 88.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 11.7% (the probability was 0 before the release of non-farm payrolls data).
OANDA:XAUUSD is currently hitting new highs as bulls see a significant slowdown in employment as a sign of more rate cuts. The outlook for gold remains bullish as employment concerns continue to outweigh inflation in the short to medium term.
OANDA:XAUUSD is up 37% this year, driven largely by a weaker dollar, central bank buying, dovish monetary policy and rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
Gold itself does not generate interest, but it does well in low- or high-uncertainty environments, making it a safe haven for investors’ money.
The outlook for gold is positive as the Federal Reserve’s independence is under threat following Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Tim Cook, weakening the dollar and boosting investor appetite for the precious metal. Gold traders are focused on next week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. If inflation continues to decline, that would strengthen the case for a rate cut at the September 16-17 meeting.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
First, gold has achieved the $3,600 price target and a new all-time high.
Currently, the technical conditions and technical positions are all bullish, with a short-term directional bullish channel and major support from the EMA21. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not provided any signals of a possible correction in momentum, even though it has been operating in the overbought zone (80 to 100) for some time.
In the short term, gold may retest the all-time high, then target around $3,613 in the short term, which is the price point of the 0.382% Fibonacci extension. And the nearest support is noted at $3,574, which is the price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci extension.
As long as gold remains above $3,550, it is not in a position to correct lower, and any dips due to profit-taking should be considered as a short-term move rather than a trend.
Finally, the overall trend of gold is bullish, and the notable points will also be listed as follows.
Support: $3,574 – $3,550
Resistance: $3,600 – $3,613
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3607 - 3605⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3611
→Take Profit 1 3599
↨
→Take Profit 2 3593
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3548 - 3550⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3544
→Take Profit 1 3556
↨
→Take Profit 2 3562
XAUUSD 4D | Market OutlookGold closed the week at $3,586.55, just under a new record high of $3,600.21. The move came after weak U.S. jobs data increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut on September 17.
The August jobs report showed only 22,000 new jobs versus forecasts of 75,000, while unemployment rose to 4.3%, the highest in over a year. Other reports also signaled a slowing labor market. Traders now see a 90% chance of a 0.25% rate cut, with some even expecting a larger cut.
U.S. bond yields dropped sharply, with the 10-year at 4.076% and the 2-year at 3.509%, both helping gold by lowering the cost of holding it. The dollar also weakened, with the Dollar Index at 97.767, adding further support.
Gold remains in an uptrend, with strong support above $3,500.20. As long as prices hold above key levels, pullbacks are likely to attract buyers. With the Fed meeting just ahead, the short-term outlook for gold stays bullish.
Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area of 3540.Colleagues, the forecast for an upward impulse has been confirmed and now I think that wave “3” is complete and I expect a correction in wave ‘4’ in the area of 3445 and then a continuation of the upward movement in the final wave “5”, which may meet resistance at the important level of 3540.
The most interesting thing is that if this is what happens - it would mean that there is a pretty strong correction ahead, after the execution of the scenario, and then a continuation of the upward movement, but we will talk about these plans later.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
GOLD DAILY CHART THE DAILY CHART shows the break of supply roof which saw the yellow metal approach 3599-3600 zone on united state poor economic data report.
while we expect correction ,we still pay attention to market structure which is bullish backed by central bank bulk purchase and bond /dxy sell off.
key areas to watch will be 3544-3559 for buy
key area to watch will be 3511 floor on potential retest.
the break of 3511 will be a whole drop into 3500-3492 zone for buy.
the daily supply roof is broken and that could provide us the demand floor but correction is needed to keep the trade balance
As the price is running out structure we hope that 15min will do the magic ,if they buy back 3573-3578 retested 30min demand floor then a new all time high will me made in the zone of 3614-3606-3604 zone .this will provide the next sell idea due to the structure surrounding the rally.
'A break below 3573-3578 will be aiming the ascending trendline and such technical break down might signal weakness .
this will bring 3544- 3526 zone on the watch for possible 15min buy structure in line with US10Y AND DXY 15MIN CHART or 30 min chart in search of correlation and divergence
GOLD ,DXY AND US10Y INSIGHT IS GREAT FOR DIRECTIONAL BIAS,ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU USE THEM TOGETHER.
LAST FLOOR TO WATCH ON BEARISH 1000PIPS DROP WILL BE 3492-3500 ZONE .
TRADING IS 100% PROBABILTY,ANY KEY LEVEL CAN FAIL.
MANAGE YOUR RISK AND USE LOW RISK HIGH REWARD STRATEGY.
THINK LIKE A HUNTER
GOODLUCK
#GOLD #SILVER #COPPER #XAUUSD #DOLLAR #DXY #US10Y
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for September 9thGold Technical Analysis
Daily chart resistance: 3700, support: 3539
Four-hour chart resistance: 3660, support: 3612
One-hour chart resistance: 3660, support: 3630
Spot gold is trading around $3655/oz. Weak US labor market data reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, pushing gold prices to a new all-time high of $3646 on Monday. In the short term, gold prices are expected to continue their upward trend to around $3700-3730. The weak US NFP report triggered a continued decline in the US dollar. Market pricing remains strong, with a 92% probability of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and three rate cuts this year. Gold's long-term bullish structure remains intact.
Gold Trading Recommendations: Based on current market analysis, support is focused on the one-hour level at 3630 and the four-hour level at 3612. Maximum support for a pullback is near 3612 in the four-hour level (watch for closing prices). Upward pressure is expected to focus on potential resistance in the 3660-3700 range. The short-term bull-bear divide is near 3630. If the one-hour level stabilizes above this level, continue to buy on dips.
BUY: 3630near
BUY: 3612near
BUY: 3637near