Oil’s Next Bullet: Locked, Loaded, Waiting at ValueOil made a clean move from 66.43 to 67.09 no noise, no hesitation and now it’s consolidating right where we want it: above the most important value zone of the leg. We’re not chasing green candles here. We're setting up for a measured, high-confluence re-entry at the point of balance.
This is the kind of setup we like to take at Staakd value-based, built off structure, supported by data, and always defined by risk.
Why We Like This Long
1. Fair Value Gap (FVG)
There’s a clear imbalance from 66.70–66.76 this is where price moved aggressively and left inefficiency behind. When price pulls back into an FVG with structure still bullish, we treat it like a reload zone not weakness.
2. POC (Point of Control) from Volume Profile
We anchored a Fixed Range Volume Profile from the impulse low to recent high, and the POC sits at 66.56, just under the FVG. That’s where most volume traded meaning institutions likely built their position there. If price reclaims this area after a dip, it’s a strong signal buyers are still in control.
3. Fib 50% Retracement
The 50% level of the impulse move (66.76) aligns with the FVG midpoint. That’s a psychological retracement level where trend traders and mean reversion players often meet.
4. Structure & Momentum Still Intact
- EMAs are stacked bullish: 9 > 21 > 50
- No lower low has formed
- Volume dropped on the pullback (typical in bull flags or controlled consolidations)
Plan of Attack
- Entry Zone: Anywhere from 66.56–66.76 (FVG, POC, fib confluence)
- Trigger: Look for a wick below and reclaim of FVG engulfing candle, ORB break, or VWAP reclaim
- TP1: 67.09 (supply + liquidity sweep)
- SL: Below 66.43 (demand origin + invalidation of trend)
What Invalidates This Trade
A clean break and hold below 66.43 means the structure has flipped. At that point:
- The FVG is fully filled and disrespected
- Demand is broken
- We’d likely reassess for a reversal setup, not continuation
- No egos, no praying. If we’re wrong, we’re out.
Why This Matters
We don’t trade predictions, we trade probabilities based on imbalances, value zones, and participation. When price returns to where the real business was done (the POC), we wait for confirmation and execute without emotion.
This setup aligns with our model:
- Value-based entry
- Tight, clearly defined invalidation
- Measured upside to recent high
- Multiple technical confluences
All that’s left now is patience the setup is built, the levels are mapped, and the edge is clear.
