SDX1! trade ideas
DXY LONG DXY will be wil trend higher.. look like need some push to higher.. there so maney factors are running economically , so no body cant control whats gonna happan..looks like major volume building up..if it reject higher price we short.. or we continue long dxy. once reach ITL level its easy to price go through it as trade location...
Dollar WILL breakout this week!The United States Dollar Index continues to trade in a tight range. This buildup will likely create a strong price movement for the next breakout direction. The only catalyst left for a breakup is the upcoming FOMC.
Downside target will be at 99.365 support region while upside target will be at 105.0 resistance region.
Bobby's Homework Assignment1.23.23 Dollar on the Futures market: The dollar is at the support area. There is a battle between buyers and sellers at this area. This is also A double bottom. This might imply that the market is going to go higher since it is at a double bottom. This is not necessarily true. I spent some time on ABCD patterns. I am guessing that these patterns are probably used more to find targets comma as opposed to finding reversals. Maybe confusing if you have not thought about it in the past. The problem with using ABCD patterns as reversal patterns Is that this process can be much less reliable...especially when you were looking at very long-range projections. There will be plenty of examples to clarify this issue. In general, Start using the line tools to get used to them. Start thinking about support/ resistance Lines. Get used to the drawing tools, and then the nuances fall into place.
Rising channel for DXY 1WWith the rising higher highs and higher lows in the close time period, I find this more appropriate to call a channel than a wedge. To call it a wedge, we should ignore this structure and in my opinion it is better to focus on the channel idea.But who knows what happens in the future :) this is my own idea, not a financial advice. Wish you all a great day!
DOLLAR TRADES AT KEY SUPPORT LEVELThe United States Dollar Index broke out of the short term support region and fell to 101.785 region as per what we have analyzed in the previous week.
We can see that momentum is extended from the initial reversal from the 105.575 resistance region all the way to 102.77 where the Dollar then trading in a lower time frame consolidation. Price fail to push higher when the previous support (now resistance) at 103.225 turns price away.
Extending out the view on the Dollar, we can see that price is now at key support area, Any indication of reversal or reversal confirmations may give Dollar its needed retracement.
SELLERS REMAIN IN CONTROL as the USD gets pressuredThe United States Dollar Index broker out of the range last week and pushed towards 105.575 as expected.
However, price quickly reversed from the resistance zone and fell back to the range.
Seller remains in control over the Dollar and only by breaking out of 105.575 resistance region can we see more potential for upside. For downside opportunity, a breakout of the 103.225 can push the dollar towards 101.785 region.
Yellow Gold Rises (Then Falls) (Then Rises Again)As mentioned in my last idea on the subject, Gold is poised to rise dramatically in 2023 due to an upcoming liquidity event.
Gold is a useful coincident indicator when used in conjunction with the USD.
When Gold/USD are negatively correlated, it generally means there's a loosening of financial conditions for whatever reason (e.g., central banks selling dollars to buy gold, credit becoming more available, government sending cheques).
When Gold/USD are positively correlated, it generally means there's a tightening of financial conditions due to uncertainty in the monetary system (e.g., flight to safety, store of value).
What are the charts suggesting now?
First, the dollar has been rising fast and hard since Q2 2021 up +28% in more than a year. It then reversed course in Q4 2022 falling -10%.
This is not at all unusual. Often the dollar falls in Q4 due to seasonal market dynamics. And when it does, it then retraces the entire drop and more in Q1.
As you might imagine, that could be hard on liquidity sensitive assets. Yet gold is interesting in this regard. If the liquidity shock is presaging something more nefarious, such as a global event or credit crisis, then Gold's fall pivots on a dime and the price rockets upwards.
So these are the warning signs I'd be watching for:
A sharp bounce in the DXY here (or as low as 97)
A pullback on Gold to $1,730 (or as low as $1,510)
A pivot in Gold so it rises with DXY
Seeing this play out means that Gold is going to new highs... and that we're in a recession that gets deeper and more painful as the dollar rises.
DXY outlook for 2023.DXY is the talk of 2022. The index of the Dollar had a massive bull run, followed by the decline of other assets and currencies around the globe. The rise of DXY came from FED's hawkish policy and indecisive actions from other central banks.
For now, DXY strength seemingly declined, as most eyes are looking into cheap assets to buy. However, DXY will have a bounce to at least 109-110 zone in 2023. FEDs will decide on any movement after that. And if we are right, it will be a life-changing opportunity to buy assets for the next 10 years.