NASDAQ trade ideas
NAS100 Technical Forecast: Key Levels & Traps🚀 NAS100 Technical Forecast: Key Levels & Traps 🐻
*Analysis as of Sept 20, 2025 (12:50 AM UTC+4)*
📊 Overall Market Context:
Price: 24,610. Geopolitical events remain a key volatility driver. Current price action suggests a cautious market seeking direction after recent moves.
🔍 Key Technical Indicators:
• RSI (14): Neutral zone (~50). No strong overbought/oversold signal.
• Bollinger Bands (20): Price near the middle band, indicating balanced volatility.
• Moving Averages: Watching for a potential bearish crossover on the 4H chart. Key resistance at the 50-EMA.
• VWAP: Current price trading around the session's VWAP; a break above signals intraday bullish bias.
🎯 Critical Support & Resistance:
• Immediate Resistance: 24,800 -> 25,000 (Psychological)
• Strong Resistance: 25,250 (Previous High)
• Immediate Support: 24,500 -> 24,300
• Strong Support: 24,000 (Key Level)
⚠️ Pattern Watch:
• Bull Trap Risk: A false breakout above 24,800 could lure buyers before a drop.
• Bear Trap Risk: A sharp rejection from 24,300 could trap sellers before a rally.
• No clear Harmonic or Elliott Wave pattern on lower timeframes; monitoring for setup.
📈 Intraday Trading (5M-1H Charts):
• BUY (Long): Above 24,650, targeting 24,800. Stop Loss: 24,550.
• SELL (Short): Below 24,500, targeting 24,300. Stop Loss: 24,650.
*Confirmation: Use 5-min RSI divergence and volume spikes.*
📉 Swing Trading (4H-Daily Charts):
• BUY Swing: On a bullish reversal candle at 24,300 support, target 25,000+. SL below 24,000.
• SELL Swing: On a rejection at 24,800 resistance, target 24,000. SL above 25,100.
*Wait for a 4H close above/below key levels for confirmation.*
🎲 Risk Management:
Always use a 1:2 Risk/Reward ratio. Protect your capital.
For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade)
I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors.
Sincerely,
Shunya.Trade
Website: shunya dot trade
📝 TRADING CHECKLIST
Before entering any position:
- ✅ Confirm volume supports move
- ✅ Check RSI for divergences
- ✅ Verify multiple timeframe alignment
- ✅ Set stop loss before entry
- ✅ Calculate position size
- ✅ Review correlation with DXY/SPX
- ✅ Check economic calendar
- ✅ Assess market sentiment
⚠️Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
NSDQ100 volatility, triple-witching could exaggerate swings.Nasdaq 100 Trading Drivers
Macro backdrop:
US data came in strong:
Jobless claims fell to 231k (vs. 240k exp; prior 264k).
Continuing claims declined to 1.92m (vs. 1.95m exp).
Philly Fed survey surged to 23.2 (vs. 1.7 exp), an 8-month high.
This eased US slowdown fears and reinforced risk-on sentiment.
Equities:
Nasdaq +0.94% → new record high.
Tech/semis led: Intel (+22.8%) strongest S&P performer after Nvidia’s $5bn investment and US gov’t stake news. Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +3.6%.
Momentum broadened → Russell 2000 +2.5%, first record high since 2021.
Rates:
Treasuries sold off on strong data → 10yr yield +1.7bps to 4.11%, 30yr +3.4bps. Higher yields a potential headwind if sustained.
Event risk:
Trump–Xi call (9 a.m. ET): key for TikTok’s US future & broader trade tone. Risk of mixed headlines given tensions (China soybeans skip, Gaza criticism, Taiwan aid freeze).
BoJ surprise: announced unwind of $4.2bn/year ETF holdings → dampened global risk tone.
US triple-witching: options/futures expiries today → elevated intraday volatility likely.
Nasdaq 100 Trading Takeaway
Bullish momentum intact: record highs fueled by tech & semiconductor leadership.
Short-term watchpoints: Trump–Xi headlines and BoJ shift may inject volatility; triple-witching could exaggerate swings.
Key risk: rising US yields may cap upside if bond sell-off deepens.
Bias: Still risk-on / buy dips near-term, but position sizing should account for headline-driven volatility today.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 24600
Resistance Level 2: 24710
Resistance Level 3: 24800
Support Level 1: 24210
Support Level 2: 24085
Support Level 3: 24940
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Key risk: rising US yields may cap upside if bond sell-off deepens.
Bias: Still risk-on / buy dips near-term, but position sizing should account for headline-driven volatility today.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 24600
Resistance Level 2: 24710
Resistance Level 3: 24800
Support Level 1: 24210
Support Level 2: 24085
Support Level 3: 24940
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
NAS100Nasdaq-100 (NAS100) Performance on September Options Expiration Days (2015–2024)
Based on historical data for the Invesco QQQ ETF (which tracks the Nasdaq-100), below is the daily performance on the third Friday of September each year—the standard options expiration day. The result is "Rise" if the closing price increased from the previous trading day's close, or "Fall" if it decreased. Data is sourced from reliable financial records, including adjusted closing prices.
- 2015: Fall (-0.45%)
- 2016: Rise (+0.32%)
- 2017: Rise (+0.62%)
- 2018: Fall (-0.20%)
- 2019: Rise (+0.11%)
- 2020: Fall (-1.18%)
- 2021: Fall (-1.25%)
- 2022: Fall (-1.69%)
- 2023: Fall (-1.13%)
- 2024: Fall (-0.19%)
Buy Nas100Nas is bullish and will continue buying. There are two possible buy entries, being the demand zone, or the liquidity grab zone. Do not enter a trade on the demand zone unless there is another confirmation on lower time frames. Remember it is Friday tomorrow, and the market can be very manipulative on Friday. Do not force trades, there is nothing wrong with not having a trading day. Trade what you see, and not what you feel.
2025 vs 2024 Growth comparison and OutlookPEPPERSTONE:NAS100 PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 2025 growth % is now more or less where 2024 was at the same date (+16% YTD) the difference is that last year in September Fed cut 0.5% and there was a bright future with inflation really going down, unemployment low and election coming. This year instead we have for the last quarter a GDP that is slowing , higher inflation (it did not decrease vs last September) and definitely a worst employment situation..So in 2022 NAS100 did another 10% from sep to dec 2024 to get to 26% . I really doubt we will do the same this year.(it would mean closing 2025 at 26400!...Just too put thinks in perspective PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 2025 growth % is now more or less where 2024 was at the same date (+16% YTD) the difference is that last year in September Fed cut 0.5% and there was a bright future with inflation really going down, unemployment low and election coming. This year instead we have for the last quarter a GDP that is slowing , higher inflation (it did not decrease vs last September) and definitely a worst employment situation..So in 2022 NAS100 did another 10% from sep to dec 2024 to get to 26% . I really doubt we will do the same this year.(it would mean closing 2025 at 26400!...Just too put thinks in perspective
Recession “Announcements” vs. Reality — A Contrarian SignalMost traders anchor their sentiment to the official declarations of a recession. But here’s the catch: by the time policymakers and institutions announce “we are in a recession”, the contraction has almost always run its course.
If you are waiting for an official announcement we are in a recession in order to get out, It will be too late. You will likely be selling to the smart money buying for the eventual rise.
The game is rigged against the novice trader relying on generally available news.
On the chart:
The orange line marks the actual recession periods identified by economic data.
The red background shading highlights when the recession was officially recognized and reported.
Notice the lag: announcements consistently come after the worst is already behind us. Historically, these “recognition windows” line up closer with market bottoms than with tops.
👉 The key takeaway:
When you hear that a recession has been declared, it’s often not a sell signal — it’s closer to a buy signal. By then, the market has already priced in the pain, and recovery is underway.
This perspective flips conventional wisdom on its head: don’t fear the announcement — see it as confirmation that the worst is behind us. And do not wait for it to tell you we are going in to a recession, look at what the smart money is doing, what insiders are doing, what the banks are doing. Many thin that lower interest rates means a boost to business. But they are wrong.
Banks will charge as much as they think the economy can sustain. If Interest rates are rising, they know that business will be doing better. Falling interest rates tells you the banks know they can not get away with charging more and the economy is tanking.
17.09.2025 US100 H1 Long
Good morning, everyone,
U100 H1 Long
Only tradable on HTF in my opinion. BP, why waste time and energy on small counter trades when it can be so easy?
Yes, it can go wrong, of course... but the trend is your friend.
Today's news is therefore only tradable in my opinion; everything else is too risky for me.
US NAS 100Preferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.
Enjoy Trading ;)
Nasdaq 100 Analysis: Index Hits All-Time HighNasdaq 100 Analysis: Index Hits All-Time High
As the chart shows, today the Nasdaq 100 index has, for the first time in history, climbed above the 24,500 level.
According to media reports, bullish sentiment was driven by the long-awaited Fed decision to cut interest rates for the first time in 2025.
Although the Fed also indicated it would remain cautious about further cuts, the easing acted as a bullish catalyst for the entire stock market – European equities also advanced today, with technology companies leading the way.
Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq 100
When looking at the Nasdaq 100 index within the context of the September rally (highlighted by the blue channel), we note the following:
→ In mid-September, price action reflected market optimism, as the index traded in the upper half of the channel – with resistance at the upper boundary (R) and support at line S.
→ Yesterday’s volatility spike produced a similar move (marked with an arrow) to the one we highlighted in today’s earlier gold analysis, namely a sharp reversal from the lower boundary of the channel (essentially a bullish engulfing pattern, albeit less clear due to volatility and the chosen timeframe).
Following the reversal from the lower boundary, which unfolded aggressively (a sign of bullish conviction), the price advanced steadily, breaking through key levels:
→ the midline of the blue channel;
→ the R2 resistance line shown in red;
→ the former all-time high at 24,165.
Moreover, the index’s behaviour around 24,300 demonstrated the persistence of buyers – the price moved above a cluster of local resistances and then extended its rally.
Bearish view:
→ bullish momentum has pushed the RSI indicator into overbought zone;
→ when attempting to break above the psychological 24,500 level, the price failed to hold, suggesting a false bullish breakout.
Given the above, we could assume that optimism prevails in the market, supported by the Fed’s decision:
→ on the one hand, further gains towards the upper boundary of the blue channel may take place;
→ on the other hand, the market may be overheated and vulnerable to a correction (for instance, back towards the blue midline).
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