DXY vs. EURUSD – Pre-FOMC DivergenceDollar Index (DXY)
Yesterday’s move was fully absorbed inside a tight range, leaving the internal range high at 99.804 ahead of the Fed meeting.
Liquidity is at 98.00 stacked above that zone; market makers could easily run the stops toward the 98 handle before any larger downside move.
EURUSD
Meanwhile, EURUSD broke out of its major range, giving us a new weekly structure with a key reference low at 1.13914.
Cross-Market View
This sets up a classic divergence:
Dollar – trapped in a premium sell range, heavy liquidity overhead.
Euro – fresh upside structure.
For cross-pairs this often means sharp pullbacks or erratic price action as we approach the FOMC decision.
Trade Notes
Stay nimble and keep stops tight.
DXY trade ideas
Bearish drop off?The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rejected off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 97.85
1st Support: 96.61
1st Resistance: 98.70
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DXY is setting for another dropPre FOMC move on DXY bearish as with 0.25% to 0.5% rate cut decision as significantly impacted dollar index which on press conference, price finally rejected from the lower level 96.20
As with the weekly close coming in few hours, price approaching another key level of resistance, weekly and monthly giving a high probablity to reject back again to the support level as the resistance consist of 3 higher timeframe confulences, monty and weekly resistance alogn with weekly 10ema combining with break of series of lower highs and break of the combinations could lead the price to drop to the support. at 96.20
Dollar short-term BULLISH until proven otherwiseCAPITALCOM:DXY
After a deep liquidity sweep down to ~95.80 followed by a sharp buying response, a string of higher lows, and a higher high into the 97.39–97.78 area. Price is currently pausing just above the shaded Daily BPR.
That sequence (sweep → big rejection → higher low → higher high) is the technical basis for a bullish bias while price stays above the recent higher-low area.
Watching development for now...
Dollar Headed Higher?Looking at the price of the dollar from a daily perspective, we can see that price accumulated for about 3 full trading weeks. Manipulation took place soon after, followed by 3 strong bullish candles.
Now that bulls have entered the market after the manipulation, I fully expect the distribution to take place after retesting the bullish FVG.
Since this is the dollar we're talking about, this price movement will most likely affect the price of other assets including Gold and dollar pairs.
Targeting the daily POI/Medium BSL.
Dollar Index (DXY) – Pre-FOMC Rangebound PlayPrice is boxed between 96.20 and 96.40 as market makers build volume on both sides ahead of the Fed.
Key Levels
• 96.40 – top of the current node, first spot for squeeze fuel.
• 96.20 – base of the range, stop pockets just beneath.
Until the statement drops, expect tight, whipsaw action—classic pre-FOMC positioning. Patience over prediction.
The dark situation of the Dollar Index never endsThis week is the most important week of 2025, and the dollar’s situation is not good at all. It’s unclear what will happen by the end of the week with all the news coming out, and there’s a high chance that all our analyses — whether on coins, gold, or currency pairs — could turn out to be fake. ✅
The Dollar Index situation in the past weekThere’s no doubt that the Dollar Index is still in a downtrend. During this decline — while moving inside a channel — it managed, thanks to the news, to break the channel’s ceiling with relatively weak momentum. The probability of a pullback to the channel’s ceiling or even a return inside the channel is high because the momentum is weak. In any case, we’ll have to see how the dollar starts the coming week. ✅
DXY (US Dollar Index) AnalysisPrice is currently trading near 97.60 – 97.90, which is a strong resistance zone.
I’ll be waiting for bearish confirmation here before expecting downside momentum.
🔻 If sellers hold this level, we could see DXY drop further, aligning with bearish pressure on USD across correlated pairs (EURUSD bullish, GBPUSD bullish, Gold bullish).
Key Levels:
🔴 Resistance: 97.60 / 97.90
🟢 Target Zone: 95.00
📌 Trading Plan:
Wait for rejection at 97.60 – 97.90 before entering.
Look for sell setups targeting 95.00.
Correlation: Bearish DXY supports bullish momentum in major USD pairs.
⚠️ Risk management is key. Always wait for confirmation before taking positions.
Dollar Weekly WrapThe dollar ripped to fresh lows early in the week on the FOMC spark and is now set to close with a heavy bearish rejection candle.
Next week’s macro stack:
Tue – U.S. PMI flash
Thu – Q2 GDP final and Durable Goods
Fri – Personal Income/Spending and PCE
Price sits just below a five-week liquidity shelf around the 98.00 area.
Technically the market is oversold near the lower range, so high probability to target next week 98ich highs and lower on cross pairs. lets see how it will play out!
$DXY breaking down. Next level to watch 95. Year-end lows @ 90.Even if the Fed cutting cycle has just started, we are seeing major weakness in the TVC:DXY index prior to the easing cycle. It is quiet peculiar the bottom to top of the Fed hiking cycle matches exactly to the DXY index Cycle bottom in 2021 to cycle top to September 2022. With a drop in the Fed fund rate from 5.34% to 4.34%, which is close to 18%, and the DXY has also lost almost 17%. If the expectation is that there will be another 0.25% rate cut over the next few months which will takt the Fed fund rates to 4.09%, which is 23% from the recent highs of 5.34%. And surprisingly if we plot 23% lower from the ATH on the TVC:DXY Index then the index should reach 90 by the end of the year.
Verdict: With Fed rate lowering cycle ongoing the TVC:DXY index will lose more strength. 95 remains our short-term target and TVC:DXY to reach 90 by year end.
DXY at Major Support – Dollar Ready to Rebound?Today, I want to analyze the DXY index ( TVC:DXY ) for you. First, I must say that this week, US indexes can have an impact on the DXY index trend .
US indexes to be released this week:
Core PPI m/m: Tomorrow
PPI m/m: Tomorrow
Core CPI m/m: Thursday
CPI m/m: Thursday
CPI y/y: Thursday
Unemployment Claims: Thursday
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations: Friday
The DXY Index is currently moving near the Support zone($97.989-$97.834) , Yearly Support(2) , and the lower line of the descending channel .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that the DXY index has managed to complete microwave 5 of the main wave C . The corrective structure is of the Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) type.
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence (RD+) between consecutive valleys .
I expect the DXY index to rise to at least $98.07(First Target) before the US indexes are announced.
Second Target: $98.56
Stop Loss(SL): $96.997
Note: With the DXY index rising, we can expect a correction in Gold( OANDA:XAUUSD ), Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ), and major Forex pairs (dollar strength).
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
U.S. Dollar Index Analyze (DXYUSD), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
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DXYDXY maintains a bearish bias, trading below last week’s open and confirming weakness with a series of lower highs and lower lows. Commitment of Traders (COT) data shows non-commercial traders reducing long positions and adding to shorts, reinforcing the downside outlook. As long as price holds beneath the current week open, bearish momentum is expected to persist, with any rallies into resistance or supply zones offering opportunities to align with the prevailing trend.
US Dollar Index (DXY) – Institutional Structural OutlookMacro Context
The Dollar Index is currently holding within a weekly demand zone after a prolonged distributive phase. The market is evaluating whether this region will act as a structural accumulation base or if deeper liquidity levels will be tested. Confirmation from COT reports will be crucial to validate institutional positioning.
Technical Structure
Breakout & Acceptance: The last major breakout is still respected, with price now consolidating above demand.
Demand Layers: Three clear demand zones are mapped:
Current Demand – where the market is attempting to accumulate.
Deep Discount Demand – a deeper structural level where liquidity could be absorbed if the first zone fails.
Extreme Deep Discount Demand – ultimate defensive layer, aligned with long-term rebalancing.
Accumulation: Price is building a smaller accumulation range, signaling potential preparation for an institutional move.
Projected Scenarios
Primary Bias (Accumulation/Long): If confirmed by COT, current accumulation may trigger a structural recovery of the Dollar, strengthening against weaker counterparts (AUD, NZD).
Invalidation: A clean break below the current demand would open the path towards deeper demand zones, reframing the context as continuation of distribution.
Confirmation & Monitoring
COT Reports: Weekly positioning will confirm whether institutional players are indeed accumulating or still unwinding Dollar exposure.
Volatility Index (VIX + EVZ): As timing filters for breakout confirmation.
Macro Drivers: Next Fed communications and global liquidity flows remain critical catalysts.
⚖️ Institutional Note: The DXY is at a decision point – smaller accumulation is visible, but validation from institutional flows (COT) is essential before considering a structural recovery.