DOVISH FED RATE THREAT-SELL TO BUYMONTHLY-Bullish respect candle
WEEKLY-bullish low probability leg/liquidity leg
Daily-Bullish orderflow with bullish context
H1 OB,ENTRY Time frame
Trade ideas
DOLLAR INDEX The Dollar Index (DXY) is a measure of the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of major foreign currencies, including the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. It provides an overall indication of the dollar’s strength or weakness in the global foreign exchange market.
How the Dollar Index Works
The index is weighted based on trade volumes between the US and these countries, with the euro having the largest weight (~57.6%).
A rising Dollar Index means the US dollar is strengthening against the basket currencies; a falling index indicates dollar weakness.
Impact of Interest Rates and Bond Yields on the Dollar Index
Interest Rates:
Higher US interest rates generally attract foreign capital because they offer better returns on dollar-denominated assets, increasing demand for the US dollar and pushing the Dollar Index higher. Conversely, lower rates can weaken the dollar.
Bond Yields:
US Treasury yields are closely linked to interest rates. Rising bond yields attract yield-seeking investors from around the world, boosting demand for the dollar. Higher yields improve the dollar’s appeal relative to other currencies, often driving the Dollar Index up.
Rate Differentials:
The key driver is the differential between US interest rates/bond yields and those of other major economies. If US rates or yields rise more than those abroad, the dollar tends to strengthen.
The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for October 28-29, 2025. The key federal funds rate decision will be announced on October 29, typically at 2:00 PM Eastern Time, followed by a press conference led by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Regarding the Dollar Index (DXY), FOMC rate decisions have significant effects:
If the Fed cuts rates, as widely expected at this meeting due to a weakening labor market and inflation concerns, the US dollar tends to weaken against the basket of major currencies, putting downward pressure on the Dollar Index.
A dovish tone from the Fed, signaling further rate cuts ahead, typically extends dollar weakness.
Conversely, if the Fed surprises with a pause or hawkish stance, the dollar could strengthen, supporting an increase in the Dollar Index.
Market consensus currently leans toward a 25 basis point cut, implying a likely bearish impact on the Dollar Index near the announcement.
Summary
The Dollar Index gauges the overall value of the US dollar versus a currency basket.
Rising US interest rates and bond yields increase demand for US dollar assets, pushing the Dollar Index higher.
International rate differentials are key to understanding dollar strength or weakness in global forex markets.
This interrelationship influences trade, capital flows, and monetary policy impacts across economies..
trade direction based on structure.
the last analysis on dollar /gold inverse reaction was a complete reaction on Friday 17th at 97.999 and we have seen gold sell off on the dollar buy floor .
the next anticipation will be on 96.361 floor which will come along FOMC rate outcome ,if the rate decision and outlook becomes positive ,technical correction might continue for the yellow metal before rally.
the us-china tension is cooling off ,technically slowing central banks demand for the yellow metal.
GOODLUCK
#XAUUSD #GOLD #DOLLAR #DXY
dxy possible bullish idea expecting dxy to coninue bullish
tapped in monthly ob + liq sweep
so targetting monthly irl which is monthly fvg
i am sharing daily chart view
DXY Daily Outlook — Bullish Order Flow Toward Equal HighsHello traders 👋
On the DXY daily chart, we can clearly see that price showed a strong bullish reaction after grabbing liquidity below 96.37, initiating a bullish order flow that, in my view, is still in progress.
The equal highs above the current price act as a potential draw on liquidity and serve as my first bullish target.
However, keep an eye on the trendline liquidity forming below the current price — there’s a possibility that price may sweep this liquidity before continuing higher.
Overall, my bias remains bullish for now.
💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
🔎 DYOR
💡Wait for the update!
DXY FRGNT Daily Forecast -Q4 | W44 | D28| Y25 |📅 Q4 | W44 | D28| Y25 |
📊 DXY FRGNT Daily Forecast
🔍 Analysis Approach:
I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on:
Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️
Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐
Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎
Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅
This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price.
💡 My Motto:
"Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge."
A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐
⚠️ Losses?
They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲
They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️
🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast.
Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital
— FRNGT 🚀
TVC:DXY
DXY Double Top Rejection Still At PlayThe M formation I spoke about a week ago is still at play, and the gap I anticipated will get filled is still wide open.
I am bearish on DXY until confirmations to go bullish contradict my bias.
DXY FRGNT Daily Forecast -Q4 | W44 | D31| Y25 |📅 Q4 | W44 | D31| Y25 |
📊 DXY FRGNT Daily Forecast
🔍 Analysis Approach:
I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on:
Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️
Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐
Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎
Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅
This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price.
💡 My Motto:
"Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge."
A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐
⚠️ Losses?
They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲
They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️
🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast.
Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital
— FRNGT 🚀
TVC:DXY
DXY BuysDollar bullish on weekly. Price has been correcting for a few weeks to the downside. Momentum is shifting to buys on higher time frame. Price is in key areas for buys. Manage Risk!
EU Session Low supportlineDXY is hitting resistance line within PL 99.00, entry was delayed a bit, compensated with flexed SL
Bullish reversal?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is reacting off the pivot which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to the major resistance.
Pivot: 98.55
1st Support: 98
1st Resistance: 99.53
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DXY RISING TRENDLINE BELOW|LONG|
✅DXY Price is respecting the rising trendline, showing consistent higher lows. Expect bullish continuation toward the target zone after the retest, as price seeks to rebalance inefficiency left from prior impulsive moves. Time Frame 7H.
LONG🚀
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
DXY Continuing the bullish trend?DXY Weekly Outlook
The dollar has been bullish over the past few weeks, continuing to break structure to the upside. I expect this momentum to carry on a bit further, but as price approaches a strong supply zone, we could see some short-term downside.
This potential pullback would likely cause a temporary push-up for EU and GU before the dollar resumes its bullish move overall.
I don’t trade the dollar directly, but I use it as confluence for my main pairs — and right now, it aligns perfectly with my EU and GU outlooks.
Key Levels:
Possible bullish reaction around 99.600
Potential bearish reaction around 100.000 (psychological level)
DXY Breakout Beyond 98.6 — Fed Cuts 25bps, New Structural Terrai🧭 Context
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has pushed above 98.6 for the first time , powered by heavy institutional volume and a fresh wave of macro catalysts.
The Federal Reserve delivered a 25 bps rate cut, bringing the federal funds target range to 4.75 – 5.00 % — its first reduction since the easing cycle began in September.
Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that further cuts will depend on data trajectory, particularly inflation and employment stability.
Bond markets reacted swiftly:
10-year Treasury yield: dipped from 4.18 % → 4.05 %.
S&P 500 futures: modestly higher (+0.3 %) as lower yields eased risk pressure.
Gold (XAU/USD): steady near $2 435 as traders weighed dollar strength against yield softness.
📊 Technical Frame
If close > 98.80: confirms bullish structural regime — fresh momentum across USD pairs.
If re-enter < 98.60: false break → likely liquidity retest.
Volume expansion validates the move
Cross-asset implication: risk pairs (EUR/USD, XAU/USD, BTC/USD) now operate on new structural geometry.
🗓 Fundamental Pulse
✅ Today: FOMC Rate Decision (-25 bps)
🕓 Powell Presser: cautious tone, data-dependent policy
📅 Tomorrow: U.S. GDP (Q3 advance) + Unemployment Claims
📅 Friday: Core PCE — key Fed inflation gauge
Each print will shape the next confirmation wave of this breakout.
💭 Mindset
News creates noise. Structure creates order.
Volume shows intent, but confirmation proves it.
The disciplined trader waits for structure to speak before taking action.
— CORE5DAN
Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
DXYBearish momentum expected as we on a strong supply zone and the next move would be our strong demand zone. Just price action as cot report is not out for two weeks now.
General Market OutlookHello, I want to talk about markets in general before the week start.
The Federal Reserve is trying to navigate with limited data. Recently, after Governor Waller used ADP data without authorization, the Fed lost access to ADP’s high-frequency employment data as well.
CPI and core CPI both came in at 3%, slightly below market expectations but in line with Cleveland Fed and Bloomberg models. With inflation not overheating, there is little reason for the Fed to delay rate cuts in its remaining two meetings this year, though these cuts are likely already priced in. The real focus will be on what FED will do in 2026.
This week brings meetings from the Fed, ECB, BOJ, and BOC, while the Trump–Xi talks will take center stage. For me, the most important event will be the US–China negotiations. China holds a structural advantage: its exports have remained resilient despite US tariffs, supported by rising trade with South America, Africa, the EU, and South Asia. Meanwhile, the US remains heavily dependent on China for rare earths, a situation unlikely to change soon. However, China’s top priority remains its economy, which should keep the door open for compromise and negotiations.
Also, keep an eye on the shutdown situation and upcoming earnings reports.
US bond yield is falling, now a battle around 4% is ongoing for 10-y yield. If it bounced from 3.85% trendline dollar might try to recover, but so far I don't see any reason for a dollar jump, rather the tight range between the trendline from 2011 and 100 resistance likely to continue.
EURUSD is trying to recover with slighlty bullish trend but this trend could turn into flag formation easily if dollar index to make a move towards 100. I expect EURUSD to continue recover with strong data from EU and weaker data from US. If shutdown extends further, both stock market and dollar might turn bearish.
There’s nothing new to add for USDJPY beyond the previous analysis. If the base case scenario unfolds, it will support the dollar index retesting its trendline in the coming weeks.
Nasdaq is still trending high with insane amount of AI investments and better than expected earnings. High valuations, shutdown and China fears are not in the spotlight yet. As long as Nasdaq trend channel continues, no reason to back out bullishness, but careful if it break because corrections often came very hard.
Crypto market is yet to recover after the massive sudden crash. Bitcoin is less effected, but still has a problem. If 114k regained, maybe signs of recovery will be more clear. But the danger is not over yet.
My base case for gold to hold above 4000 and recover towards 4250. 4160 is a key resistance this week. I expect gold is getting to a long term peak, likely to hit before the year end but still has some way to go. I will write about Silver's long term cycle in a couple of days so stay tuned for that.
US Dollar Index Tests Range Resistance as Momentum Firm Post-FedThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to trade within a well-defined horizontal range, bounded by resistance near 100.30 and support around 96.42. Price is currently hovering near the upper half of this range, suggesting renewed bullish momentum in the short term.
The 50-day SMA (98.17) is trending upward and recently acted as dynamic support, while the 200-day SMA (100.53) remains above price, serving as a longer-term resistance barrier. A sustained move above the 100.30 zone would be required to shift the broader structure toward a more constructive outlook.
The MACD shows a mild bullish crossover above the signal line, indicating strengthening momentum, while the RSI (61) remains in neutral-to-bullish territory — suggesting there is room for further upside before overbought conditions emerge.
Overall, the index remains range-bound but shows short-term bullish undertones as it approaches key resistance. Traders may watch for price action confirmation near the upper boundary to gauge the next directional move.
– MW
DOLLAR INDEX DXYWHAT IS DXY /DOLLAR INDEX
The Dollar Index (DXY) measures the value of the United States dollar against a weighted basket of six major foreign currencies: the Euro (57.6%), Japanese Yen (13.6%), British Pound (11.9%), Canadian Dollar (9.1%), Swedish Krona (4.2%), and Swiss Franc (3.6%). It is calculated as a weighted geometric mean of these currencies' exchange rates relative to the dollar. The DXY indicates the overall strength or weakness of the US dollar in the global market.
The US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) represents the return on investment for US government debt maturing in 10 years. It reflects market expectations for interest rates, inflation, and economic growth.
How DXY and US10Y interact:
When US10Y rises, reflecting tighter monetary conditions or inflation concerns, US interest rates become more attractive, which often strengthens the US dollar, leading to a higher DXY.
Conversely, when US10Y falls, lower yields can reduce dollar appeal, causing DXY to weaken.
Movements in DXY and US10Y are intertwined through monetary policy expectations and global capital flows.
For example, a rising US10Y can boost capital inflows into US assets, strengthening the dollar and pushing the DXY higher.
This interplay influences foreign exchange markets, commodity prices, and international investment decisions.
DOLLAR INDEX ON RETEST TO THE 4HR TRENDLINE WILL GO LONG .
TRADE REASON IS ON THE CHART,MARKET KEEPING LONG SENTIMENT AFTER RATE CUT WITH NO HOPE OF CUTTING AGAIN .
The Dollar Index (DXY) paradoxically rose despite the Federal Reserve's rate cut to 3.75%-4.00% on October 29, 2025, due to several nuanced reasons:
Market Expectations vs Reality: The rate cut was widely anticipated and mostly priced in before the announcement. When the Fed delivered the expected 25 basis point cut without signaling more aggressive easing ahead, it reassured markets about the US economic outlook.
Dovish but Cautious Fed Tone: Fed Chair Powell emphasized a cautious approach, highlighting uncertainties but not committing to a rapid series of cuts. This balanced tone supported confidence in the dollar.
Safe-Haven Demand: Global economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks boosted demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven currency, pushing the DXY higher.
Relative Monetary Policy: While the Fed cut rates, other major central banks like the ECB and BOJ remained more dovish or on hold, keeping the dollar relatively attractive.
Technical Buying: The DXY had technical support around current levels, triggering algorithmic and institutional buying on dips.
the DXY's rise reflects that investors viewed the rate cut as a pragmatic, measured step rather than a sign of economic weakness, supporting dollar strength despite the easing.
KEY FUNDAMENTAL REPORT TODAY FROM UNITED STATES .
The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut to its benchmark federal funds rate on October 29, 2025, lowering the target range to 3.75% - 4.00%. This marks the second consecutive rate reduction this year. The decision was made amid moderate economic expansion, a slowing job market, slightly elevated inflation, and uncertainty caused by limited economic data due to a government shutdown.
The Fed also stated it will end the reduction of its balance sheet assets (quantitative tightening) on December 1, 2025. The committee emphasized attentiveness to the evolving economic outlook, risks to employment and inflation, and readiness to adjust policy accordingly. The vote was 10-2, with some dissent for either deeper cuts or no cuts at all.
This rate cut supports easing financial conditions to aid maximum employment and returning inflation to the 2% long-run goal.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered speech.
Key points from his speech:
The Fed remains focused on achieving maximum employment and stable prices.
Despite some disruption from a partial government shutdown delaying some economic data, available information indicates little change in employment and inflation outlooks since the September meeting.
Labor market conditions appear to be gradually cooling, with inflation still somewhat elevated.
The rate cut was aimed at supporting these goals given the balance of risks to employment and inflation.
The Fed will end the reduction of its asset holdings (quantitative tightening) on December 1.
Powell emphasized a balanced approach between supporting growth and controlling inflation, noting the policy is not on a preset course.
Future rate moves remain data-dependent; a December rate cut is not guaranteed.
He acknowledged the challenges and trade-offs in monetary policy decision-making, especially under uncertainty from recent disruptions.
Overall, Powell’s speech conveyed cautious optimism combined with a pragmatic acknowledgement of incoming risks and uncertainty, signaling readiness to adjust policy to evolving economic conditions.
NOTE ;TRADING IS 100% PROBABILITY.
RISK MANAGEMENT IS KEY
ANY KEY LEVEL CAN FAIL.
#GOLD #US10Y #DOLLAR
Bullish bounce off pullback support?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot, which is a pullback support and oculd bounce to the swing high resistance/
Pivot: 98.97
1st Support: 98.62
1st Resistance: 99.43
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DXY FRGNT Daily Forecast -Q4 | W44 | D27| Y25 |📅 Q4 | W44 | D27| Y25 |
📊 DXY FRGNT Daily Forecast
🔍 Analysis Approach:
I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on:
Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️
Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐
Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎
Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅
This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price.
💡 My Motto:
"Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge."
A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐
⚠️ Losses?
They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲
They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️
🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast.
Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital
— FRNGT 🚀
TVC:DXY
U.S. Dollar Index | Countertrend Break Aligning Toward ExpansionThe Market Flow | October 26, 2025
Technical Overview
Monthly:
• The bearish countertrend from the 108.50 pivot remains active but is slowing after completing a 138.2% Fibonacci projection.
• Price structure is consolidating above the 95.99 breakout base, showing early signs of phase rotation.
• A monthly close above 100.80 would confirm a higher timeframe structural shift.
Weekly:
• The down impulse reached the 138.2% target near 95.99 and turned higher into corrective structure.
• The active weekly pivot at 98.54 defines current bias.
• The correction phase persists toward the 38.2% retracement at 101.43 , with 106.64 as weekly expansion resistance.
• Structure favors continuation within a developing countertrend recovery channel.
Daily:
• The daily trend remains bullish above 98.54 , with higher lows intact.
• Price currently trades within the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone (98.75–98.85) , overlapping with the H4 expansion base — a structural sweet spot of alignment between the daily and H4 expansion phases.
• A sustained move above the green countertrend line confirms continuation toward 99.97 → 100.81 → 101.43 .
• The active daily pivot at 98.12 defines primary invalidation for the short-term bullish structure.
H4:
• Consolidation within the 61.8% Fibonacci zone supports accumulation before potential expansion.
• A confirmed H4 close above 99.25 (EXP) initiates the expansion phase toward 99.97 → 100.81 → 101.43 → 101.94 .
• Failure to hold 98.12 (D Pivot) neutralizes the short-term phase alignment and reopens 97.70 .
Trade Structure & Levels
• Bias: Long above 97.70
• Trigger = H4 > 99.25 → clean H4 breakdown (EXP line)
• Primary Invalidation = 98.12 (D Pivot)
• Secondary Invalidation = 98.54 (W Pivot)
• Path → 99.97 → 100.81 → 101.43
• Phase: Countertrend Break → Expansion Setup (Daily–H4 Confluence Zone)
Risk & Event Context
• U.S. macro data (PCE inflation, Treasury auctions, and Fed commentary) may drive volatility near key resistance zones.
• Momentum confirmation above 99.25 aligns all active timeframes in expansion phase.
Conclusion
DXY sits within a confluence of daily and H4 61.8% target Fibonacci zone — a structural sweet spot supporting continuation of the expansion phase. A H4 break above 99.25 would validate alignment across both timeframes, targeting the 100–101.40 zone.
dollar index to 100$
technical detail.
dollar broke out of 4hr supply roof and used nit as support ,dollar to 100$ soon,its evident from EURUSD PRICE ACTION TODAY
fundamental details
The DXY (US Dollar Index) is a benchmark that measures the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of six major global currencies: the euro (largest component), Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. It serves as a broad indicator of the dollar’s strength or weakness against these currencies
The DXY is trading in the range of 105 to 107, indicating moderate strength in the US dollar.
It reflects the impact of relatively higher US interest rates and bond yields compared to other major economies.
Geopolitical uncertainties and safe-haven demand also support the dollar's position, influencing the DXY.
Key Factors Influencing DXY
Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions and forward guidance are primary drivers.
Economic Performance: Relative growth, inflation, and employment trends in the US versus other economies.
Risk Sentiment: The DXY often rises during periods of global uncertainty due to flight-to-quality flows into the dollar.
Trade and Capital Flows: Trade balances and foreign investment flows contribute to fluctuations.
Summary
The DXY measures overall US dollar strength against a broad basket of key currencies and is influenced heavily by US monetary policy, economic indicators, and global risk sentiment. It currently shows moderate bullishness, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s tighter policy stance and global economic conditions.
Check the trend It is expected that the corrective trend will continue until the specified support level is formed. Then, a change in trend and the start of an upward trend will be possible. With the support level broken, a continuation of the downward trend will be possible.
