Its all SO overvalued. This always happens...With all the macro news in the world, I think with the first rate cut around sept 17th the market tops and we will see a huge bearmarket coming 2-3 years. Also look at the 2/10y yieldcurve that is almost at the same point when the GFC started in 2008. P/E ratio's are nuts, creditcard debts are at ATH, layoffs started due to AI that will go exponential in the coming years. Be careful buying the dips..
918422 trade ideas
You wanna bet against NVDA? Go ahead. Not me, though.This is now my 7th idea for NVDA. It's been a while, and I don't really know why. I guess maybe it seems tiresome posting ideas about the same stocks over and over again. But you know what isn't tiresome? Making money on those same stocks over and over again.
The yellow circles represent the entries for my previous ideas. Those trades were made during one of the worst 4 month stretches for NVDA in a LONG time. It lost about 19% for buy and holders during that time. I won't make you go back and data mine the results of my trades in that span. Here are all 12 lots I traded in those 6 ideas:
+8.1% in 6 trading days
+9.90% in 5 trading days
+14.50% in 3 trading days
+4.89% in 1 trading day
+0.74% in 1 trading day
+0.50% in 1 trading day
+1.80% in 1 trading day
+2.30% in 2 trading days
+3.40% in 1 trading day
+8.80% in 1 trading day
+2.60% in 9 trading days
+12.31% in 4 trading days
I trade equal dollar lot sizes so those 12 trades produced a total non-compunded return of just under +70% WHILE the stock was falling 19%. That's not self-promotion, that's a prelude to what comes next.
I'm not afraid of the stock dropping from here. If I was, I would not make the trade. The reality is that the way I trade actually works better when stocks move sideways or are falling than when they are in strong uptrends. Since April, my algo has only generated 5 signals on NVDA. I've only traded 2 of them before this, but all 5 are marked with white arrows. Add those to the ones from previous ideas and we are looking at a total gain of +92% or so since November.
While the most recent signal prior to this one is a loser SO FAR, it actually presents a better opportunity. Historically, the returns on the 2nd entry (adding to an existing trade) are MUCH better than the initial entry returns. Luckily, I didn't trade that most recent signal, so I get to try to grab more juice with less squeeze.
I won't lie, if employment falters after that inflation read we got today, it could be the beginning of a rough period for stocks. But I also know that virtually nobody can predict macro with any degree of success, least of all me. I'd also rather hitch my wagon to NVDA than to the vast majority of stocks in a generally overpriced market.
Add to all that the fact that they are pulling in over $500m a DAY in revenues, roughly 50% more than a year ago - and Wall St. is sad about that, apparently.
The stock also is resting RIGHT on near term support and there is more close by, which makes me take this trade enthusiastically. A word of caution, though. If the whole market goes down, NVDA will too and that could lengthen the time it takes to close here. I only trade the stock, so time isn't really an issue for me. For someone trading short dated options, it would be a disaster if this runs for a while.
My long entry price is 174.18 at the close today. I can and will add to the position tactically if good opportunities present themselves and I will update this idea whenever I add or sell lots.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
Nvidia, possible correction?I'm not presently invested in nvidia, but present this as possible deep value entries.
Looking at elliot wave and fib levels, I would expect to see a 3-3-5 correction with a double top and bottom at either .618 $72 or .786 at $44.
After a bottom is found then expect a short accumulation period of 3 higher highs then a mark up in price.
I usually always leave out time a bias, but in this case with the upcoming fomc meeting in September, I could see this correction happening and finishing fast.
Obviously, if these deep value targets are met, I will realign my portfolio to heavy in nvidia.
ID: 2025 - 0178.26.2025
Trade #17 of 2025 executed.
Trade entry with 10 DTE.
This is a 100% purely directional short earnings play. I believe NVDA is going to be a huge miss tomorrow after the market closes, and I want to have a few days to let the market digest the news. These options expire Friday 9.6.2025, and if NVDA closes anywhere below 169 at expiration, this will be a 7R trade win.
Happy Trading!
-kevin
All Eyes on NVIDIA Earnings – Will AI Boom or Bust?👀 All Eyes on NVIDIA Earnings – Will AI Boom or Bust? 🎯
Hey guys, Kiri here – the FX Professor.
NVIDIA is at a crucial technical resistance around 182.85 . At the same time, the S&P 500 is already pumped above 6433 — showing strength, for now .
So, what happens next?
🧠 Let’s break it down:
• NVIDIA = The AI barometer 📊
• S&P = Already reacting positively 📈
• Crypto = Waiting in line 🪙
🤖 Earnings Scenarios:
1️⃣ Normal earnings:
Market holds — NVIDIA may stay sideways. Risk-on sentiment stays intact.
2️⃣ Good (even slightly good) earnings:
Likely breakout above 182.85.
S&P 500 could push higher.
Crypto benefits — especially AI-related coins.
3️⃣ Bad earnings:
🚨 Be very, very careful.
Could trigger a rotation out of AI, bring in “overvaluation” FUD.
Combine that with weak GPT-5 reviews? We might see a sharp correction.
Remember: Earnings don’t obey technical setups. This is a fundamental catalyst — and anything can happen. Toss a coin, roll the dice — it’s that kind of game.
📍 My Position:
I'm bullish until NVIDIA earnings drop .
But I’m not blind — the popcorn is ready 🍿 and I’m watching every tick.
The chart shows the key levels – support, parabola, re-entry zones, and risk-reward scenarios.
Stay sharp. This one matters.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be a HUMAN and as an AI-dev let me tell you this: AI will NEVER be able to come close to Human power: no feelings, no thinking, no intuition, no soul. YOU, my fellow human are the biggest strongest piece of Code. You are the best blockchain, your kids, your work, your hobbies, your pets and your Wisdom are the best Altcoins. Remember to live with Love and respect for yourself and for others.🌟🤝📈
NVIDIA Is it still a buy after its Earnings release?NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) delivered stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings on Wednesday, but its data center revenue came in slightly below forecasts as U.S. restrictions on H20 chip sales to China weighed on results. The result was a 3.1% fall on the company's stock in after-hours trading following the report.
The obvious question is this: Is it still a buy?
The answer can be given by purely looking at the technicals. Based on the bigger picture, the stock's 5-month pattern remains a Channel Up since the April 07 bottom, and in fact the recent dip on August 20 was a Higher Low exactly on the pattern's bottom and almost on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been intact since May 06.
Given also the fact that the 1D CCI rebounded with aggression after marginally breaking below its oversold level (-100.00), similar to April 21, we expect NVIDIA to resume the bullish trend and extend this new Bullish Leg.
Since the last three Bullish Legs have all increased by a little more than +20%, we expect the price to easily reach our $200.00 long-term Target, before the next technical correction occurs.
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Nvidia (NVDA) Upcoming Earnings ReportNvidia (NVDA) Upcoming Earnings Report
Tomorrow after hours, Nvidia will release its quarterly report, attracting heightened attention given its position as:
→ the world’s largest company (market capitalisation of around $4.39 trillion);
→ a leader in the development of AI-related industries;
→ strong stock price performance — approximately +33% year-to-date, +108% from the yearly low.
Bullish Expectations
Analysts anticipate Nvidia will report revenue of around $46 billion, more than 50% higher than the same period last year.
Investors are counting on confirmation of robust demand for Nvidia’s chips from tech giants such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta, all of which continue to expand capital expenditure on data centres to power AI workloads.
Further support for NVDA’s share price could come from positive news about demand for the new Blackwell chips and the resumption of sales in China following a recent agreement with the US government.
Bearish Concerns
Even strong results may fall short of “sky-high” optimistic expectations, potentially triggering profit-taking and a decline in Nvidia’s (NVDA) stock price. The stock trades at a high P/E multiple (price-to-earnings ratio), making it vulnerable to any negative news or even a minor miss against forecasts.
The primary concern is that Nvidia’s forward guidance might point to a slowdown in AI infrastructure spending growth by its key clients. Any hint of this could negatively affect not only Nvidia’s shares but also the broader technology sector.
Technical Analysis of Nvidia (NVDA) Chart
NVDA’s share price remains within an upward channel (shown in blue), with the following configuration:
→ until mid-August, the price remained within the upper half of the channel;
→ in August, the price declined towards the lower boundary (point A).
The $170 level appears to be a key support:
→ it is a round psychological level;
→ the low at point A looks like an aggressive test of this level, after which the price reversed upward.
From a bullish perspective:
→ support is provided by the lower boundary of the channel;
→ a long bullish candlestick (2) signals persistent demand.
From a bearish perspective, the $183 level looks like key resistance: NVDA’s share price slowed its advance here in early August, with repeated unsuccessful attempts to break higher.
Given the above, we could assume that the bulls may attempt to push through the $183 resistance on the back of the earnings release, but to do so, Nvidia’s results and guidance must at least meet the market’s extremely optimistic expectations.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NVDA IS A SELL+++ $136.25 targetNVDA tends to retrace to .5 and .618 fib on each previous correction before making another bull run. We are also on an exhausted Eliot Wave impulsive number 5 overextended. Dont get suckered into the bounces until the selling has been exhausted to the downside. It should bounce off $152.98 support before resuming lower
NVDA: The AI Market’s Early Warning System🚨 NVDA: The AI Market’s Early Warning System
Summary :
NVIDIA just shook the market a little. When NVDA moves, the whole AI sector reacts. Here’s why the levels on the chart matter, and how I’m playing it.
Idea :
NVIDIA is not just another stock, it’s the heartbeat of the AI trade. When it shows weakness, the entire sector gets nervous. The marked zone on the chart can work as a first entry , while the blue support below is a stronger area if price dips further.
But here’s the risk : losing those levels would put NVDA in trouble, and that’s when AI stocks across the board could follow.
Why does NVDA matter so much?
• It’s the leader of the AI narrative.
• Its valuation is sky-high, which means expectations are huge.
• Competition is catching up (AMD, Intel, even custom chips from big tech).
So, do we stay long?
Yes, trend is still bullish, just like with Bitcoin. But that doesn’t mean we go all in. Better to stay long with caution, clear stop levels, and exit plans ready.
Conclusion :
NVDA is basically the canary in the coal mine for AI. If it keeps flying, the sector stays strong. If it falls, the warning is clear. Trade it with respect!!
NVDA \$200C→ Big Move Loading?
# 🚀 NVDA Weekly Options Setup | \$200 Call 🎯 (High Risk / High Reward)
📊 **TRADE SNAPSHOT**
* **Ticker**: NVDA
* **Direction**: 📈 CALL (LONG)
* **Strike**: \$200
* **Entry Price**: \$1.44
* **Profit Target**: \$2.16 (50% gain)
* **Stop Loss**: \$0.58 (40% risk)
* **Expiry**: 2025-08-29
* **Confidence**: 65%
* **Timing**: Enter at Open
* **Signal Time**: 2025-08-23 11:11 EDT
---
### 🔎 Market Analysis
✅ **Weekly RSI**: 87.2 (RISING → Strong Bullish)
⚠️ **Daily RSI**: 63.3 (FALLING → Short-term caution)
📉 **Volume**: 0.9x last week (Weak confirmation)
🔥 **Options Flow**: Calls 617k vs. Puts 383k → **1.61 ratio (Bullish Bias)**
---
### 📈 Bias & Strategy
* **Overall Sentiment**: **Moderate Bullish** 🚀
* Bullish institutions loading Calls → supports upside.
* Weak daily momentum + low volume = ⚠️ caution.
* High gamma risk → manage tight with stop loss.
🏷 **Tags**:
\#NVDA #OptionsTrading #SwingTrade #WeeklyOptions #TradingView #StockMarket #EarningsPlay #MomentumTrading #OptionsFlow #GammaRisk
NVDA DOWN?MVP SYSTEM
Update to prior post.
Today = earnings
The RTY and YM recently faked out to the downside. The NQ also broke down from the upward rsi trend. Is it also a fake out?
The NVDA chart looks like an obvious short - which gives me pause; is it another fake out?
I don’t have a position in NVDA, but I do use it as a proxy for NQ and the market overall.
I can see it pushing above the high and then dropping, regardless of the earnings report.
Nvda... where we standEarnings this week...
Upside move 195-200 if they pump this but any opening near 200 should be faded .. I'm looking towards a 140 test in Sept - Oct.
Weekly is really overbought , I wouldn't chase this up here.. I'm looking for a move similar to what TSM did after blow out earnings which is gap up to weekly trendline and fade
Biggest red flag here is NASDAQ:SMH (Chipsector)
Zoomed out you can see price is rolling over at resistance here
Zoomed in and you can see , Wyckoff distribution
You'll be lucky if SMH gives you one more pop but this sector and the underlying top stocks are headed for a 20-30% correction (Maybe more).. I'd stay away from the longs until Seasonality flips again around late Oct early November
See the link from the NASDAQ:AVGO and NYSE:TSM .. they are already finished. NVDA IS THE FAT LADY SINGING.
Eventually NVDA will retest the bottom of this channel , this move will like come with a break below 90 but first we would have to break back below 140..
So my analysis is, Nvda has room for 190-200 if it beats on earnings, if it goes red and drops below 167 it's a short back to 140's..
Either way, we will see 140
NVDA TRADE AFTER EARNINGS REPPORTright after market open NVDA jumped up to $184.50 and than started to fall down. 1st it touches the VWAP and fell down again sharply to $176.40. I took a position for CALL when the price was @$171.30 for $285 per contract. I have set take profit at VWAP that is $179.70.
Nvidia plummets ~3% afterhours! Buy the dip or sell the rally?Nvidia delivered another strong quarter, beating expectations on both revenue and EPS. However, shares dropped after hours to around $175, as data centre revenue narrowly missed forecasts and China sales remained absent due to regulatory uncertainty.
Technically, if NVDA breaks below $175, bears may target the $170 double bottom support in a dead-cat-bounce fashion, with a risk of further downside if that level fails. However, if the stock holds above $179 and reclaims $185, bulls could see a rally toward $193 and potentially $220 in the medium term, which could still materialise after a short-term decline toward $170.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Nvidia Shares Maintain Bearish Bias Near $170Over the past three trading sessions, Nvidia’s shares have posted a sharp decline, accumulating losses of more than 3% in the short term. For now, the emerging selling bias around the stock remains in place, as the market fears a potential overheating of the artificial intelligence industry. Added to this is the anticipation of the company’s results on August 27, which may show difficulties in revenue, mainly due to concerns that sales in China have weakened in recent months amid the intensifying trade war. Earnings per share are expected to come in around $0.94, but uncertainty remains as to whether this figure can hold given possible performance challenges. As long as this uncertainty persists, selling pressure on the stock could remain in the short term.
Uptrend Channel at Risk
Recent sessions have shown a clear shift in the bullish outlook that Nvidia had been sustaining in prior weeks. A significant bearish correction has emerged, halting the advance of the short-term uptrend channel and leading to a breakdown of its lower boundary. As long as selling pressure continues, this previous channel may lose relevance and give way to a broader bearish scenario, provided the bearish bias remains dominant.
Technical Indicators
RSI: the RSI line has begun to show a downward slope, now approaching the neutral 50 level. If it breaks below this threshold, selling momentum could become dominant in the short term, paving the way for stronger bearish pressure on the chart in the upcoming sessions.
MACD: the MACD histogram is currently moving below the 0 line, reflecting that short-term moving averages have entered a sustained bearish territory. If the histogram continues to decline, selling pressure is likely to strengthen further in the short term.
Key Levels to Watch:
$184 – Main Resistance: corresponds to the area of recent highs. A sustained recovery above this level could reactivate a bullish bias and bring back strength to the uptrend channel.
$173 – Near-Term Support: current congestion zone of recent weeks and the most immediate barrier. A sustained move below this level could trigger a stronger bearish bias in the short term.
$162 – Crucial Support: aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A decisive break below this level would confirm a bearish structural shift, opening the door to a new selling trend in the short term.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
Nvidia (NVDA) Shows Bearish Signs After Earnings ReleaseNvidia (NVDA) Shows Bearish Signs After Earnings Release
On Wednesday, Nvidia published a fairly strong quarterly report:
→ Revenue for the second quarter came in at $46.74 billion (record), up 56% compared with the same period last year;
→ Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $1.05, a 54% year-on-year increase and above analysts’ expectations of $1.01–$1.02.
However, in the Data Centre segment (closely watched by the market), results fell slightly short of Wall Street forecasts, which may suggest a slowdown in capital flows into AI infrastructure. This factor could explain why Nvidia (NVDA) underperformed the index later in the week: for instance, the S&P 500 hit a record high on Thursday, while NVDA closed lower.
Technical analysis of Nvidia (NVDA) chart
Six days ago, we:
→ Drew an upward channel (shown in blue), capturing NVDA’s price swings after the bullish surge at the end of June;
→ Highlighted the importance of support at $170 and resistance at $183.
Indeed, $183 looks like a solid barrier:
→ The numbers (1, 2, 3) mark failed attempts by the bulls to break through this resistance, giving grounds to view the chart in the context of a triple top pattern.
→ The third peak only slightly exceeds the previous highs, which resembles a bull trap and the Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) pattern in Richard Wyckoff’s methodology, signalling the prospect of lower prices. A bearish gap the following day (shown by the red arrow) and a weak Friday close underline the bears’ aggression.
Given the above, we could assume that the bulls may try to keep the price within the channel, relying on support at its lower boundary. Yet the mentioned signals suggest that the bears are intensifying pressure. If we see only a weak rebound from the lower boundary at the start of September, the current channel could be at risk. In the event of a bearish breakout, a move down to test the $170 support could happen.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Nvidia Is Up 100%+ Since April. What Does Its Chart Say?Perhaps the most important single earnings release of this earnings season is on deck. AI-friendly chipmaker Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA will report earnings this week at a time when many of the artificial-intelligence trade's darlings have come off of their highest valuations. What does NVDA's technical and fundamental analysis say ahead of the report?
Let's take a look:
Nvidia's Fundamental Analysis
What timing! NVDA will unveil fiscal Q2 earnings on Wednesday after the bell in what could be the market's next big thing following AI stocks' recent pullback and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's key Jackson Hole speech.
Nvidia also recently got the go ahead from the US government to resume exports of certain products to China, and its stock has risen more than 100% since hitting an $86.62 52-week intraday low on April 7.
As I write this, analysts expect NVDA to report $1.01 of adjusted earnings per share on about $45.3 billion of revenue.
That would be good for about 53% year-over-year growth from fiscal Q2 2025's $30 billion in revenue, as well as a 48.5% increase from the firm's $0.68 in adjusted EPS in the same period last year.
Now, many investors would view 53% year-over-year sales growth as enormous for most companies, but that would actually represent a deceleration of y/y growth for Nvidia.
That said, the "law of large numbers" argues that the pace at which Nvidia has been increasing year-over-year sales since the surge in AI-based capital-expenditure spending began in earnest is unsustainable.
Still, some on Wall Street expect NVDA to stabilize sales growth in the low 50%-ish range for at least a few quarters.
A number of very highly rated sell-side analysts have also increased their price targets for Nvidia heading into this week's earnings report.
Cantor Fitzgerald's CJ Muse, Joseph Moore of Morgan Stanley, TD Cowen's Joshua Buchalter and John Vinh of KeyBanc have all upped their NVDA target prices in just the past few days. TipRanks rates every one of those four at either four or five stars out of a possible five.
The group increased their price targets from an average of $191.25 to an average of $224 vs. the $179.81 that Nvidia closed at on Monday.
Nvidia's Technical Analysis
Now let's look at NVDA's year-to-date chart as of Aug. 20:
We have a very complex chart to take in here.
Readers will first note that a "cup-with-handle" pattern (the purple curving line at the chart's center) kicked off Nvidia's April-into-August rally.
However, the stock's trend -- illustrated here by a Raff Regression model marked with orange shading -- has been broken to the downside as Nvidia approaches earnings.
NVDA also appears to have tested the swing crowd at the stock's 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or "EMA," marked with a green line) and lost that fight.
Next up would be the stock's 50-day Simple Moving Average, or "SMA," denoted by the blue line above. It will be very interesting to see if institutional money defends the stock at that level.
Keep in mind that key Fibonacci retracement levels also exist at roughly $162 (23.6% retracement) and $147 (38.2% retracement), as denoted by the gray shaded area above.
The stock's 50-day SMA is the downside pivot that could pave the way to the stock's even more important 200-day SMA (the red line above at $137.40).
Meanwhile, Nvidia's upside pivot would be the stock's recent high near $184. A retake of that level in response to a well-received earnings report could make the above analysts' new target prices suddenly seem very realistic.
As for the other technical indicators in the above chart, they're not looking very pretty.
Nvidia's Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart's top) is sinking like a rock and is trying to hold at a neutral reading.
And check out the stock's daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or "MACD," marked with black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart's bottom).
The histogram of the 9-day EMA (marked with blue bars) is suddenly deeply negative. That's usually a short-term bearish signal.
The 12-day EMA (the black line) has also crossed below the 26-day EMA (the gold line). That's also typically a negative signal -- but with both lines still in positive territory, it's not quite as foreboding.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle was long NVDA at the time of writing this column.)
This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material.
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NVDA Wave Analysis – 25 August 2025- NVDA reversed from the support area
- Likely to rise to resistance level 183.45
NVDA recently reversed with the daily Hammer from the support area between the pivotal support level 170.00, lower daily Bollinger Band and the support trendline of the daily Up Channel from May.
This support area was strengthened by the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from the start of July.
Given the strong daily uptrend, NVDA can be expected rise to the next resistance level 183.45 (which stopped the earlier impulse wave i).
$NVDA | The Next Big Leg?NVIDIA has been a textbook case of Smart Money structure this cycle.
✅ Break of Structure (BOS) confirmed
✅ Trendline + MA confluence support at ~$177
✅ Strong premium zone rejection near $195
✅ Fibonacci extension eyeing $231.80
🔑 Levels to Watch:
$177 = Key support (trendline + MA)
$195 = Resistance zone (premium supply)
$231 = Next target if bullish momentum continues
💡 Game Plan:
Above $177 = Long bias toward $195 → $231
Break below $177 = Retrace toward $153 equilibrium
⚡️ Tech + AI flows remain strong; NVDA could be gearing up for another explosive move.
📢 Question to the community:
👉 Do you think NASDAQ:NVDA pushes through $195 straight to $231, or do we retest $153 first?
#NVDA #TradingView #Stocks #Fibonacci #SmartMoneyConcepts #AI #Bullish
Nvida Earnings Next, Can Cryptos Stabilize? Cryptocurrencies stabilized a bit in the last 24 hours while stocks also rebounded yesterday during the US session, but the dollar is still moving sideways. Maybe there will be a bit of slow day ahead, till NVIDA earnings are released. Data will be announced today, after the US close, when we’ll get Nvidia earnings, which should also be important for the crypto space. And if results beat expectations—or in other words if the market moves higher after hours—then cryptos could also do well. Looking at Nvidia’s wave count, price could be eyeing new highs after a bounce from 170 support, so maybe a minor fourth wave has finished and we could even see a gap higher after earnings, with potential resistance around the 200 round figure.
If earnings disappoint and price gaps lower, I would still see this as a higher-degree corrective wave four retracement, and maybe some opportunities later on to fill the gap. Key support to watch is around 150, the previous high. So even if there’s some downside, as long as any drop it’s not too deep, I still view this stock as bullish within an unfinished impulse, and whenever Nvidia is ready to print new highs, that’s when cryptos could also stabilize.
Grega
NVDA Earnings Play | \$190C– Don’t Miss Out
# 🚀 NVDA Earnings Play | \$190C @ 2.49 | 200–400% Target 🎯
### 📝 Quick Take (TL;DR)
* **Bias:** Moderate-Bullish (78% confidence).
* **Rationale:** Fundamentals 🔥 + Options flow skewed bullish 📈 + Technicals constructive.
* **Main Risk:** China export \~\$8B headwind in guidance.
---
### 🎯 Trade Idea
* **Buy** NVDA **2025-08-29 \$190 Call**
* 📌 Entry: \$2.49 (ask) — enter **pre-earnings close** (Aug 26 AMC).
* 🛑 Stop: \$1.25 (−50%).
* 🎯 Targets:
* +200% → \$7.47
* +300% → \$9.96
* ⏳ Exit Rule: If neither stop/target hit, **close within 2h post-earnings open**.
* ⚖️ Risk: \$249 per contract (max loss).
---
### 📊 Why This Setup?
**Fundamentals (9/10)**
* Revenue growth: +69% TTM 🚀
* Margins elite (gross 70%, net 52%) 💰
* Beat history: 8/8 last quarters ✅
* Balance sheet strong (cash \~\$54B).
**Options Flow (8/10)**
* Implied move ~~5.9% (~~\$10.5).
* Call OI heavy @ \$185–\$200 (gamma cluster).
* Liquidity excellent at \$190 strike (OI >64k).
**Technicals (8/10)**
* Price \$179.83, holding above 20/50/200 MAs.
* RSI neutral (53).
* Resistance: \$184.5 / \$190 / \$200.
* Coiling under highs 🔄.
**Macro (6/10)**
* AI/data center demand = secular tailwind.
* China ban risk headline.
* VIX \~15 → complacency = bigger gap risk.
---
### ⚠️ Risks
* Guidance may highlight China hit (\$8B) → bearish gap.
* IV crush 30–50% post-print.
* Gap risk may bypass stop.
* Single-leg naked = high variance → **size small (≤2% portfolio).**
---
### 📌 Execution Checklist
✅ Confirm ask = 2.49 @ close.
✅ Expiry = 2025-08-29 (weekly).
✅ Size ≤ 2% acct.
✅ Close within 2h post-earnings if no trigger.
---
### 📊 TRADE JSON
```json
{
"instrument": "NVDA",
"direction": "call",
"strike": 190.0,
"expiry": "2025-08-29",
"confidence": 78,
"entry_price": 2.49,
"stop_loss": 1.245,
"profit_target": 7.47,
"size": 1,
"entry_timing": "pre_earnings_close",
"earnings_date": "2025-08-26",
"earnings_time": "AMC",
"expected_move": 5.9,
"iv_rank": 0.75,
"signal_publish_time": "2025-08-26 14:00:37 UTC-04:00"
}
```
---
### 🔖 Hashtags
\#NVDA #EarningsPlay #OptionsTrading #CallOptions #StockMarket #AIStocks #Futures #SwingTrade #TradingSignals #RiskReward #OptionsFlow #SP500 #TechStocks
NVDA is Near it's TopHello I am the Cafe Trader.
Today we’re looking at NVDA.
This is the first time I’ve shared a Fibonacci study with you.
The way I’ve mapped it is simple — start from the beginning of the bull run, and anchor it to the 61.8% retracement of the pullback. From this we can calculate where tops are typically found. (I stumbled upon this method trading with another trader who only used Fib's. I pointed this out to him, and we both got quiet...)
As of now, NVDA Is nearing the top of a channel, and close to the top of our FIB Extension. This is where rallies tend to stall, and the reaction here will determine if this becomes a temporary pause or a full reversal (unlikely).
Red Scenario
If we get rejection in this zone, NVDA could pull back into the demand area around 164–170. That’s the level where I’d expect buyers to step back in.
Longer term, I see NVDA as still bullish, but needing to cool down in the short term. Adding at 164 can be an aggressive way to continue to stack your long term.
Thanks for reading, as always Happy Trading!
@thecafetrader