NVDA at a Make-or-Break Zone – Can Bulls Push Back on Oct. 6? Market Overview (15-Min Chart)
NVIDIA continues to trade inside a well-defined downward channel, showing controlled selling pressure throughout last week. Each bounce attempt has been capped near the descending resistance line, currently near $188.80–$189, while support sits around $185.30–$186.
The MACD histogram has started to turn lighter red, with a potential bullish crossover forming beneath zero — an early sign of waning bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Stochastic RSI has rebounded sharply from oversold levels and is now moving toward the upper band, indicating possible short-term upside before overbought exhaustion.
If NVDA can break above $188.50–$189, it could trigger a short-term shift from compression to expansion. However, if it rejects once more, the next retest of $185 could accelerate selling momentum.
GEX Validation (1H Chart Insight)
Gamma Exposure (GEX) levels on the 1-hour chart confirm a clear neutral-to-bullish setup if NVDA maintains above $185. The highest positive NET GEX / Call Wall aligns around $192.5–$195, suggesting strong dealer resistance in that region. A sustained breakout above $190 could ignite a push toward those upper zones if option flows turn supportive.
On the downside, Put support levels are clustered between $174–$180, forming a strong hedge-based demand area. The IVR of 9.8 and IVX avg 42.1 indicate a calm volatility environment, leaving room for expansion once direction confirms. Interestingly, Calls only account for 8.6% of flow — a potential contrarian signal if short-term momentum strengthens.
Trade Scenarios for the Week (Oct. 6–11)
Bullish Case:
If NVDA breaks and holds above $189, momentum could accelerate toward $191 (minor resistance) and potentially $195, where the next Call Wall sits.
* Entry: Above 189 confirmation
* Target 1: 191
* Target 2: 195
* Stop-Loss: Below 186
Bearish Case:
Failure to reclaim $189 and a breakdown below $185 could drag NVDA toward $182.50 or even $180, testing the lower bound of the Put Wall zone.
* Entry: Below 185
* Target 1: 182.5
* Target 2: 180
* Stop-Loss: Above 188
Option Insights
With gamma tightly balanced near current price, NVDA may be entering a coil phase before a directional break. Traders may look for short-term call spreads near 190–195 for upside confirmation, or put spreads near 185–180 if weakness resumes. The low IVR favors directional debit plays early in the week.
My Thoughts
This setup feels like a tug-of-war between dip buyers and short-term momentum sellers. NVDA’s structure suggests compression nearing resolution — the first clean break outside this falling channel will set the tone for the week.
If buyers can clear $189 with conviction, the path to $192–195 opens quickly. If not, the bears will likely reassert pressure back toward $182. The MACD and Stoch RSI alignment suggest a short-term bounce first, but the broader trend remains fragile until the channel is broken decisively.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence and manage your risk responsibly before trading.
