[UPDATE BTC] $38k (Q3Q4 2022) -> $10k (Q1 2023) -> $280k (2027)?I see this potential scenario in line with the worst case I said a while ago.
Not bad honestly.
Trade ideas
$5 Trillion mkcap by 2024Technology is ubiquitous. The means to finance technology shall also fall to technology, which is ubiquitous. Until crypto is at a 5 trillion dollar market cap in 2024. The risk/reward is outstanding.
BTC against SPXCrypto is trying to hold it's position - and it looks like this macro double bottom could play out into a small relief for crypto outperforming stocks - It could play out in 2 different ways - either stocks crash and crypto holds, or both bounce up - with crypto bouncing higher.
Either way expecting it to happen soon. Most likely to 200 weekly ema.
BTC/SPX forming a curvy channelSo far the relation crypto/stocks hasn't played out and double bottom with a reverse H&S hasn't been confirmed - therefore it keeps withing the descending triangle pattern but also formy a curvy channel - at which we are at the bottom (is that correct english?). Anyways - I would expect Crypto to recover a bit from there, if it doesn't .... Well - I marked the next support level. This would be brutal.
How do crypto options contracts affect the market?Hi Friends
Today we will explain the option contracts affect on crypto and other markets.
First lets see whats an option contract?
Options are derivative contracts that entitle the purchaser to buy or sell the connected asset at a predetermined price before the contract expires.
There are two types of options , call and put. The right to buy is known as a ‘call’ option, whereas the right to sell the underlying asset is called a ‘put’ option.
Every options contract comes with a specified expiry date which is the last date for settling the contract.
The price at which the options contract is settled is called the strike price .
This is the price at which the options contract owner is allowed to buy/sell the underlying cryptocurrency.
The price at which an options contract is bought is called the premium .
Now, when would you buy a cryptocurrency? Obviously when it is trading at a price that is lower than it should be,right?
This means that you find it to be undervalued and you expect its price to rise in the future so you can sell higher and make money.
But what if the crypto price fell instead? Wouldn’t it be nice if somebody would still buy the cryptocurrency from you at a higher price?
For that you would require selling rights of the cryptocurrency and you will buy a put option.
Now on the flip side when would you sell a cryptocurrency? Of course, when you think that it is trading at a price higher than it should be.
This means that you find it to be overvalued and expect it to fall from here.
But what if the price of the cryptocurrency rose instead?
You would then want to add more crypto at a lower price and sit on assets that are valued higher than your purchase price.
For this you would need buying rights or a call option.
Since options allow traders the right to buy/sell assets at a predetermined price they shield them from the volatility of the crypto markets.
Moreover the volume of the call or put options in the market signals the direction in which investors expect the markets to move.
More put options indicate that investors expect the markets to fall whereas more call options indicate that investors expect the market to rally.
Now when the option contracts are near their expiration date, large players try to drive the underlying crypto price into a favourable range depending on the option contracts they have purchased. This is done so that the deal can become profitable.
In summary:
Buying a Call (Long) = Bullish -----> you think the crypto will be worth more later so you want to lock in todays price to buy later at a profit.
Selling a Call (Short) = Bearish -----> you think the crypto will be worth less later so you want to lock in todays price to sell later at a profit.
Buying a Put (Short) = Bearish ------> you think the crypto will be worth less later so you want to lock in todays price to sell later at a profit.
Selling a Put (Long) = Bullish --------> you think the crypto will be worth more later so you want to lock in todays price to buy later at a profit.
I hope you enjoy this education please share me your opinions in comments.
thank you all specially @TradingView team
BTC/SPX We hit exactly my target at 107M and it bounced down. Right now we formed big H&S on the HTF second bottom - and I expect the price to retest that red trendline - if we manage to cross it - dashed orange line ahead. But if we don't, the fall will be brutal.
When ETH flips BTCJust two squiggles crossing each other. NFA
Crypto is highly circular. It will return, but requires a lot of time for people to recover from their losses during 2020-21.
Considering poor Macro conditions, it could take longer, but the asset class is becoming more mature so I think there will be faster cycles.
Not confident that BTC will reach ATH after losing the number one spot to ETH.
ETH becomes 1T asset by 2025.
Vitalik wins the nobel prize for economics in 2030s.
BTC/SPX keeps pushinAs expected - Crypto is outperforming stocks until it will reach the red trendline - from there either a breakout and start of a crypto bull run, or a bounce and further descending triangle creation.
Bullish till it touches that trendline.
BTC Market Cap - Bearish SentimentBTC's market cap is highly bearish. It touched the 1.3T zone. It is now at 411B. I see that it still has to drop some more to around 60B.
bitcoin souptember 2022Heres my bitcoin chart--- been up for a while---probably stay up till 930 then shutting it down; long day
BTC/SPX - time to outperform stocks?The double bottom is playing out, it will go for a retest of the first red trendline - from there we will judge where we go - if we cross - crypto's relief time! Stay tuned.
Is this the dip?This is showing BTC/USCCPI that may give a somewhat clearer view on what's going on with all that money sloshing around.
Happy trading!
BTC cheat sheet lowsFTX Caroline unloaded spot today high on adderal
Enemy of our lows
Worst case does 100B leave in an event
praying lows hold
Skeptical until cash bid side flows in
War chest has been partially deployed
Navigating risk of Jane street alum shorters
I will not die in battle
cash is trash but strong not even net long yet
have cash & equity to weather WAR Times
BTC/SPX relationshipCrypto is trying to hold the area it is in compared to stocks - holding the support and trying to form a double bottom - Too early to say it is successfull, because fear is still out there - but it is a really good spot to start DCA'ing into Crypto as there are high chances of bouncing up even stronger that stocks will - and that is mainly because when investors will open up to the idea of buying in, they will go big time into risky-assets. That's the idea.
The Flippening UpdateWhenever ETH market cap approaches 50% of BTC market cap, the BTC-ETH plot in yellow, there is a sell off. However, in recent years ETH has been holding up better and gaining ground on BTC. This means money is flowing from BTC into ETH. As BTC-ETH nears 0 we should finally see ETH break out above it. Perhaps even this time! However there should be more pain in the crypto market first; as BTC still needs to come down a lot before ETH can take the reigns.
BTC/SPX - pausing the fallsBTC is showing a bit of strength compared to stocks - we haven't bounced as planned yet - but the price of Bitcoin is ranging when SPX was falling - therefore Crypto seems to handle this area pretty well. Expecting a push to the upside for stocks - which could trigger a stronger response for crypto - as per this chart suggestion. All indicators are either low or exhausted - a relief is in the area.
Bitcoin September 2022heres my bitcoin chart for the next while on the monthly chart; looking to boost the cap to 5 trillion
Bitcoin September 2022heres my 2 or 4 hour chart for bitcoin over the next while---or atleast till this trend runs dry----lol im going long again---still have 8 longs open currently----so market has to turn around either it be bullish divergence or what I am trying to run currently..... #bitcoinath
BTC/SPX as expected...almost.BTC is still slave of stocks - or even worse - But it may be because of the trend line restest here on the chart. Other than that - many hidden bullish divergences and I expect Crypto to come alive to retest the daily 200 ema in the near future. DXY, SPX, VIX and BTC analysis agree with this perspective aswell.
Bitcoin September 2022Here is my bitcoin chart--- update- for this month like how this is running with the rsi
Bitcoin September 2022heres my bitcoin chart for today
mars inclination with better rsi on the 15 minute chart----and a script that I wrote for bitcoin.
BTC 15 min time frame looks good for short BTC 15 min time frame looks good for short as the trend is bearish so looks so good and also look for reversal if it breaks for upside might give up move also but however the overall all markets are down so impact will on BTC also so look this watch this in 5 min time frame for target and stop ;loss
BTC vs. StocksHere as expected - we keep pushing up - Stocks are rather consolidating, but crypto is pushing up. We just crossed the descending trendline after bouncing from the bottom. Seems crypto want to make up a bit last falls compared to stocks and push up a bit. This chart needs to keep rising in order to see a relief in crypto.
