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ORO1! trade ideas

buyers are being setup for a trap , it seems obvious but dontmy theory for gold sells *I was initially bullish until I noticed a few tricky things * structure number 2 is not a solid low, meaning they have not proven themselves to be stronger than number 1 sellers, because they have not created a push above them, so this low is misleading and not a proper stop * obv is in a downtrend while price is in an uptrend, obv in downtrend means that there is an increased selling interest , so this diverging from price going up can only mean .... there are no buyers and price is not going up due to a huge amount of buying power but the sellers are not pushing too hard in specific areas * the 3 support lines are not solid support, in fact they are all wicks and 'fake lows' * I dont have a solid stop to enter a short, but all these things + divergence on rsi and mfi is just telling me that the obvious buy trade might be a trap
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by jacesabr_real
1
Intraday Bearish Narrative – London Session (Gold Futures)Gold opened the London session under clear downside pressure, extending weakness from the prior U.S. session. After a strong rally into the 3619–3620 area, sellers regained control, forming lower highs and pressing price below the descending trendline (red dashed). During London hours, attempts to recover above 3600–3606 failed, reinforcing the bearish bias. The current setup aligns with a sell-on-rally structure: price has retested the broken trendline and prior support-turned-resistance zone near 3610–3613, where sellers defended strongly. As long as price holds below 3613, the bearish structure remains intact, with intraday downside targets layered at: 3593.5 (nearest support, minor liquidity pocket) 3569–3566 (London extension target, key demand zone) 3550–3548 (deeper measured move target if momentum accelerates). Stops are well-placed above 3610–3613, invalidating the setup if buyers reclaim this supply zone. 📉 Bias: Bearish intraday continuation, favoring shorts beneath 3610–3613 with room for multiple downside liquidity sweeps into the mid-3500s.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by ResilienceFx
return to proven sellers presents sell continuation could not post on time due to 10 post per day limit. I entered as per the drawing tool visualization. 1->3 : creates a lower low , number 2 are dominant sellers 3->4: we see a solid buying pressure coming to meet our sellers who have pushed the market below the previous attempt to push up at number 1 what next ? * a break below support / micro bull turn point with stop above number 2 would look safe * from number 2->4 I have a 2nd degree bearish divergence * increasing volitility and sideways movemnet as market prepares to open and perhaps pick a direction * vwap 1st standard deviation from number 1 *extreme of peak #2 might align with vwap and vpoc , perhaps a sell stop when price reaches there ... which it might when volume picks up *despite price going up, staying under obv trendline showing selling interest *micro bear pattern wanted
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by jacesabr_real
Gold, Yields, and the Fed: How Monetary Policy Drives Markets Few forces shape global markets more than U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, maximum employment and 2% inflation is the anchor for its decisions. For traders, understanding how these objectives translate into interest rate changes is critical for positioning in gold futures and across the yield curve. The Fed’s Dual Mandate 1. Maximum Employment: Support jobs and minimize unemployment. 2. Stable Prices (2% inflation target): Prevent runaway inflation or deflation. The Fed balances these goals using interest rates: • Raising rates: Cools demand, strengthens the dollar, lifts yield, weighs on gold. • Cutting rates: Stimulates demand, weakens the dollar, lowers real yields, supports gold. The tension lies in the trade-off: controlling inflation often hurts employment, while boosting employment risks higher inflation. Gold and Monetary Policy Gold is highly sensitive to real interest rates (nominal yields minus inflation): • Hawkish Fed: Higher real yields, dollar strength, gold struggles. • Dovish Fed: Lower real yields, weaker dollar, gold rallies. However, given the recent surge in gold prices despite higher rates, traders must ask: • Will gold continue rising as odds of rate cuts increase, and when they are eventually delivered? • Is the traditional correlation between the dollar and gold futures prices breaking down? Gold’s rally has also been driven by geopolitical tensions and rising long term yields, reflecting rising debt burdens across the globe. Yield Curve and Monetary Policy The yield curve reflects expectations about growth, inflation, and Fed policy. • Short end (1M–5Y): Anchored by Fed policy rates. If markets expect hikes/cuts, the front end moves first. • Long end (10Y–30Y): Driven by expectations for long-term inflation, growth, and Treasury supply/demand dynamics. Typically, investors and market participants watch for the following patterns: • Inverted curve: Short yields > long yields, often a recession signal. See last year’s yield curve. • Steepening curve: Usually follows Fed cuts, as front-end yields drop faster than the back end. Two Classic Scenarios Scenario 1: Inflation Stays High, Jobs Weaken • Fed resists cutting, prioritizing price stability. • Gold: Consolidates or weakens (real yields elevated). • Yield curve: While the short end stays pinned, long end could rise on higher inflation risk and increasing debt worries, signaling stagflation risk. Scenario 2: Inflation Stabilizes, Jobs Weaken • Fed pivots dovish, prioritizing employment. • Gold: Breaks higher on falling real yields. • Yield curve: Steepens as short yields fall faster than long yields. The Policy Backdrop Powell’s last symposium before his term ends, at the Jackson Hole appearance, Fed Chair Powell delivered a dovish pivot, highlighting rising risks to the labor market while downplaying the inflationary effects of tariffs. The reasoning behind this shift deserves its own deep dive, but for now, our focus remains squarely on how monetary policy, specifically interest rate decisions, impacts inflation, growth, supply, and demand in the U.S. economy. What’s on the Docket Until the Next Fed Meeting (September 17, 2025) Markets will be glued to data in the coming weeks: • Aug PCE / Core PCE (Aug 28–29) → Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. • Aug NFP (Sep 5) → Labor market health; weak print strengthens the case for cuts. • Aug PPI (Sep 10) → Upstream price pressures; hot numbers signal inflation risks. • Aug CPI & Core CPI (Sep 11) → Key headline data; softer print supports dovish case. • Fed Decision (Sep 17) → Will Powell stress inflation vigilance, or shift toward labor concerns? How the Charts Tie It Together • Gold Futures: o Ascending Triangle breakout above resistance towards $3,600, if Fed pivots dovish and deliver a rate cut or a bigger rate cut. o Ascending Triangle breakdown toward $3,350 if inflation remains sticky and the Fed holds. In this scenario, gold remains in balance overall. • Yield Curve: o Short end reacts directly to Fed rate expectations. o Long end reflects investor conviction on inflation, growth and increasing debt concerns. Takeaway for Traders The Fed’s dual mandate creates a constant push and pull between inflation control and employment support. Gold and the yield curve are two of the clearest real-time mirrors of that balancing act: • Watch short-term yields and gold to gauge how markets are pricing the Fed’s next move. • Watch the long end of the curve to see whether investors believe inflation is truly anchored. By linking economic data → Fed mandate → asset price response, traders gain a roadmap that works not just for this Fed meeting, but for every one that follows. In our next educational blog we will briefly explore other policy tools used by the Fed i.e., QE and QT. Quantitative Easing and Quantitative Tightening. FRED:FEDFUNDS ECONOMICS:USINTR CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! CME_MINI:NQ1! COMEX:GC1! MCX:GOLD1! CBOT:ZB1! CBOT:ZN1!
COMEX:GC1!
by EdgeClear
21
Gold Futures – Momentum Strong but Eyes on Jobs DataPrice pushed extremely bullish yesterday, with little chance for pullbacks. I admittedly got stopped out a few times from reacting too quickly to impulses, so today I’m focused on patience and waiting for confirmation. Currently, Gold is holding above recent levels after breaking higher. There’s still a clean 4H/8H FVG below that price could revisit, but as long as momentum stays intact, buyers remain in control. ⚠️ Important: Tomorrow brings ADP Non-Farm Employment, Jobless Claims, and ISM Services PMI — all of which could drive volatility. Friday is the heavyweight NFP release. Until then, we may see liquidity hunts or choppy price action. Scenarios I’m watching: ✅ Bullish continuation toward new highs if support holds. 🔄 Deeper pullback into the FVG if momentum stalls. Staying patient, letting the market show its hand, and keeping risk tight ahead of news.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
All Time Highs for Precious MetalsGold and Silver are continuing to show resilience today leading the precious metals higher to new all time high prices. Looking at the Gold market, today marks 5 consecutive days with a higher all-time high and a higher low, and Silver has had 4 consecutive days with a higher high and higher low, which is rare to see at elevated prices for these markets. There was some significant data released looking at JOLTs, which was the lowest reported number since Match of 2021 which led Gold and Silver to both see positive gains again today. Along with that, there is an expected nonfarm payrolls report and an unemployment rate coming out Friday, and the nonfarm payrolls number is expected at 74k, which is the lowest expected number since February of 2021. Equity markets battled back and forth today and the S&P and Nasdaq were able to finish the day positive with a strong upside move into the close. With the equities trading near all time high prices, there will be a lot of attention on the economic data for the rest of the week looking at jobs and employment. The CME Fed Watch Tool also saw slight shifts over the past 2 days and now are pricing in a 25-basis point rate cut for the September and October meeting. These figures have been changing rapidly, and traders will get more clarity once we hear from Powell after the September meeting in a few weeks. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
COMEX:GC1!
by CME_Group
Gold Lags Behind SilverGold lags behind silver. I’m referring to silver’s percentage gains outpacing gold, not suggesting that silver is becoming more expensive than gold. Investors and traders focus on percentage gains, whereas consumers buying jewelry make decisions based on how much it’ll actually cost them. Last year, silver’s 60% gain outpaced gold’s 40%, and year-to-date, silver has once again outperformed gold with a 52% gain compared to gold’s 36%. Micro Silver Futures Ticker: SIL Minimum fluctuation: 0.005 per troy ounce = $5.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
Gold Futures (MGC / GC) — Daily Outlook (Wed)Price just broke the previous ATH (3,578) and is in new price discovery. Momentum is bullish, but there are key imbalances below that could attract price before continuation. 🔍 Key Levels ATH (3,578) → breakout level to watch 1H FVG (3,565–3,575) → short-term support zone 4H + 8H FVG stack (3,515–3,535) → deeper liquidity target Immediate resistance → 3,610–3,620 zone ⚖️ Scenarios for Wednesday 1️⃣ Bullish Continuation (primary bias) If ATH (3,578) holds → look for continuation into 3,610–3,620+ 1H FVG may provide a bounce if tested 2️⃣ Deeper Pullback (secondary bias) Failure to hold ATH → watch for a drop into 3,515–3,535 (4H/8H FVGs) before bullish continuation ✅ Trade Plan Idea Continuation play: Buy on ATH retest / 1H FVG bounce (3,575 zone) → target 3,610–3,620+ Deeper retrace play: If ATH breaks clean → wait for price inside 3,515–3,535 zone → look for reversal confirmation long 📌 Notes Momentum = bullish until proven otherwise Don’t chase → wait for either ATH defense or clean retrace into imbalances Manage risk → this is price discovery, expect volatility 📊 What’s your bias here? Do you see price holding ATH for continuation, or do you think we dip first into the deeper FVGs?
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
Basic Trading: Marking Support and Resistance In this lesson, I walk through the basics of how I mark support and resistance levels on my charts. These key zones highlight areas where price has reacted multiple times, creating strong consolidation. Within these zones, there’s often opportunity to capture moves as the market ranges and builds momentum. By identifying these levels, traders can better anticipate entries, manage risk, and find room to profit inside the zone before price makes its next breakout or reversal.
CMCMARKETS:GOLDZ2025
by TPTG
2