Falling Wedge Breakout With Hidden Bullish DivergenceWe have a weekly bullish engulfing, a breakout, hidden bullish divergence, and a MACD bullish Crossing.
Trade ideas
UAVsAeroVironment, Inc. is an American defense contractor headquartered in Arlington, Virginia, that is primarily involved in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) (Wikipedia)
I have been eyeing the military industry for some time, but the stocks have never reached the price I would take. Anyway, AeroVironment looks among the best in the sector from both technical and fundamental perspectives.
The technicals:
There is a double top pattern that developed itself into a triangle. The bottom is specified by two significant lows exceeding a round number 100.0 to the downside. The most significant gap is in the location too.
I expect a lot of liquidity below the yellow rectangle. If we ever reach there without an overall market crash, I'll create the entry there. It's probably the last line of DEFENSE against the bear market. Remember, that the big players need that extra liquidity to open a significant position.
The fundamentals:
The drones were used in recent conflicts against both a professional army and militia/guerrilla force with great success. Even though, the army makes it clear that UAVs are not a replacement for any part of the military, the spendings on both the research and the development increases over time (Statista).
However, the coronavirus might cause some material issues, and increases in spending might be halted (Ibisworld), it is a kind of technology the US will not want to fall behind in. Well, it has already started to fall behind as Turkey develops the first 'dronecraft carrier'. I think the cuts are rather to hit other parts of the defense sector.
I like AeroVironment specifically because, with its focus on UAVs, it is likely to fight for the contracts in this category most hard and the price is as a result derived mostly from this growing part of the sector.
The crash:
The question is if there is enough time for the buying opportunity to develop & profit from before the markets crash. I will be looking for an opportunity between 95-100$, but might not decide to invest at all in the end.
$AVAV Box SetupThe Aerospace & Defense industry has few nice looking long term patterns. I've posted about $NOC last week & now $AVAV. This is a low cheat on daily chart but a massive cup with high handle on the monthly chart. Nothing to do right now until it challenges box high.
AVAV : BLUE SKY / SWING TRADEAgEagle Aerial stock jumps in wake of AeroVironment's Arcturus deal
AgEagle Aerial Systems (NYSEMKT:UAVS) shares fly up 21% after a $405M acquisition announced late yesterday in the unmanned aircraft systems space may be be raising investors' hopes for more consolidation in the industry.
After Wednesday's close AeroVironment (NASDAQ:AVAV) agreed to acquire privately held Arcturus UAV in cash and stock.
In the past year, UAVS shares have skyrocketed to $9.39 from 55 cents, with its ascent accelerating midyear amid speculation that the company was working with Amazon on a delivery drone.
UAVS shares surge more than 1,000% in the past year.
SOURCE : Jan. 14, 2021 4:02 PM ETAgEagle Aerial Systems, Inc. (UAVS)By: Liz Kiesche, SA News Editor, SeekingAlpha
seekingalpha.com
AVAV vs XPO2 different sectors, tho looking similar...
if AVAV breaks out as XPO did, might consider buying it.
Ride the droneThis breakaway gap leads this stock to a new high, and if it won't be fulfilled then fresh new highs will come.
I believe in drone companies!
This forecast was created to support you, but you have to make your trading decisions independently! As nobody sees the future, I recommend you that always apply risk management during your trading!
AVAV to Acquire Arcturus UAV, Expanding Product PortfolioAeroVironment to Acquire Arcturus UAV, Expanding Product Portfolio and Reach into Group 2 and 3 Unmanned Aircraft Systems Segments
Total transaction value of $405 million in cash and stock, including $355 million in cash and $50 million in AeroVironment stock.
Arcturus UAV has a demonstrated track record of solid performance, with topline growth exceeding 20 percent for each of its last two fiscal years.
Arcturus UAV’s complementary capabilities provide program diversification, increase key customer penetration and enhance shareholder value
Arcturus UAV is well positioned for ongoing United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) Mid-Endurance UAS (MEUAS) task orders, United States Army Future Tactical UAS (FTUAS) program delivery orders and international contracts
Expected to be immediately accretive to revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA margin and non-GAAP diluted EPS, excluding intangible assets, amortization expense and deal and integration costs, and accretive to GAAP diluted EPS by fiscal year 2022
Group 2 and 3 UAS and services, collectively, potentially represent more than one billion dollars in annual contract value, according to an independent forecast.
The Arcturus UAV team has produced strong growth in recent years and has secured strategically important wins in the MEUAS and FTUAS programs, positioning Arcturus as a leader for next-generation program requirements
In connection with the acquisition, AeroVironment has received commitments for a $200 million Term Loan Facility and $100 million revolver (undrawn at close) with Bank of America, N.A. acting as Administrative Agent, and with BofA Securities, Inc., JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and U.S. Bank National Association acting as arrangers. AeroVironment will fund approximately $155 million of the acquisition from cash on hand.
finance.yahoo.com
$AVAV with a neutral outlook following earning releaseThe PEAD projected a neutral outlook for $AVAV following a positive over reaction after earning release placing the stock Drift B
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006. Piggish Play - Long Aerovironment (AVAV)AVAV is a growing player in the Aerospace/Defense sector that is positioned to literally and technically launch into orbit. The precise nature of the stepping-stone type of growth combined with the structurally harmonic base makes for an ideal long-term bullish candidate for the next 6 months - 1 year. I very rarely hold anything this long and I will inevitably continuously avoid drawdowns in a position-practitioner sort of way, but will nevertheless maintain a sizeable equity position for at least 6-12 months.
Why you might ask?
Because I am both fascinated and bullish on recent developments in the aerospace/defense sector. I find the space to be both imminently breaking out and limitless in terms of potential growth. The recent news regarding space travel privatization is one of the cooler and more positive societal updates that nobody seemed all that interested in for longer than a day. The news today about Virgin Atlantic is just another subtle sign that things like space exploration are much closer to reality than most tend to believe. And I don't blame them because it does seem more like fantasy than it does a tangible bottom-line-beating monster of a sector.
Now, while Aerovironment is not as directly involved with things like resource procurement from another planet or limo rides to the moon, it is fundamentally important to the process, should they come to fruition in the near future. Also, it is quite literally a more grounded business model altogether.
The company reports earnings tomorrow and my research indicates that we could be in for a nice bottom beat and an even nicer topline beat. For a growth company in the second stage like we have here, the topline beat is most important for increased likelihood and strength of a post-earnings breakout. Thus, given all the positive buzz surrounding the sector and the high probability of a supporting bottom-line beat, this stock should see a significant upside over the next month.
At a minimum, my price target is 105 before I dare sell a single share. The technical aspects presented in the chart provide additional support for this move and it seems to oscillate to the beat of some harmonic sequence, as evidenced by the sharp, exact nature of its pivotal angles.
Conclusion: I am playing this as a long equity position only. I'm not going to hedge it and I will not even include the position in my regular trading account. I feel that bi-weekly checkups should suffice, assuming that the stock does indeed present an excellent report and also continues to move higher the day after. So, am going to enter half the position now and half the position after the report. To go through all this research and not be confident enough to enter before the report would be a total waste of time. On the other hand, I am a trader and not a gambler/pure-speculator. This method offers a fair compromise, but I don't think it much matters how you plan on strategically entering.
I will be less on top of this play as I am the other Piggish Plays because of its long term nature. Will periodically provide updates over the next coming months, though.
- Astro-not-a-swing-Pig-today
NASDAQ:AVAV
Aerospace Contractors Aerovironment is an aerospace contractor that provides technology and software to the governments various branches of the military for research and development of advanced aerospace technology. The stock is trading at a major low and is forming a double bottom near the low of the stocks price range.
Aerovironment LowAVAV is currently trading at a major low range and their earnings is expected to be announced later at the end of the trading day today. With the stock up alrady 2% during the day there may be some strong optimism around the stock for the earnings report.
AVAVSlight rejection on trend line. Overall analysts target price is around $71. Potential pull back on short term looking for long position after earnings based on strong last quarter.
AEROVIRONMENT IS PREPARING FOR A POSSIBLE BULL INVERSION The prices are near the 200 weekly SMA with RSI very low. I guess that from the SMA level is possible to try a buy for an inversion. I have put an alert price.
$AVAV Oversold at Support$AVAV Oversold finding support at $75. Playing for a medium term bounce. Targeting $85 by year end.
Note: Informational analysis, not investment advice.
$AVAV Bullish Money Flow Divergence$AVAV has seen a bullish divergence between price movement and money flow (MFI) over the last two weeks. The stock appears to have found a bottom around the $85 support level, starting to rebound nicely from there today.
Looking to go long for a continued recovery leading up to earnings. Targeting $100 by next ER early December.
Note: Informational analysis, not investment advice.
$AVAV Over-Extended - Earnings Next Week$AVAV Appears to be over-extended after gaining almost 50% since its last earnings report in late June. Volume has been unimpressive on its latest run up since early August. I believe a solid beat next week is already priced into the stock for the most part with a P/E more than triple the industry avg (79x vs 23x avg).
Expecting a return back down to earth in the near term - target $70-$75 area by mid-September.
Note: Informational analysis, not investment advice.
AVAV - Gap down This looks like a great trap gap down trade. If this gaps below my entry line it should go right to the 100MA. There are decent options for PUTS on this stock also. Spreads are not bad and decent volume.
Short AVAVWill most likely go higher for a few days before touching an upper edge and going substantially lower
