MSTR Buying OpportunityCurrent Technical Picture:
MSTR has experienced significant volatility, forming a bull flag the volume price support at the $300 USD support is strong so we can expect a floor around this levels!
Support Factors:
The stock appears to be finding some support around current levels after a recent decline.
Risk Considerations:
The stock has shown high volatility historically, as evidenced by the large price swings visible on the chart
Recent price action shows both significant upward and downward movements
The complexity of overlays suggests this is a actively traded, volatile security
Trade ideas
MSTR (possible short)Alot going on here, but its jus because I have been charting this out since around March.
BTC has a bearish setup where we could possibly see 92.5Kish.
Looking at MSTR which is a huge follower, we broke below the 200 on the daily.
My reasoning for possible short entry (red dot).
1. Trend Based Fib (3-point in green): shows we could bounce here, but extend down toe the $200 level.
2. We could bounce here because we are re-testing the monthly IB that we broke out, we are at the 50% quadrant of that IB.
3. However, we are currently trading within the 3M quarterly candle, and the HTF breakout we had was never re-tested. Sweeping this 3M candle, would put us in a good spot for long term growth.
4. Short entry would be red dot, with covering at the last high on daily ($358ish).
MSTR back to ATH?1. MSTR has been trading in a long-term upward channel, respecting both support and resistance lines.
2. The current pullback seems to be a consolidation phase within this bullish structure.
3. Price recently touched the lower boundary of the channel, suggesting strong technical support.
4. Historically, each bounce from this area has led to significant upward moves.
5. Leading analysts like Tom Lee expect Bitcoin to surge in Q4 and potentially reach $200K per coin, a quarter that has historically been very strong for crypto.
6. The correlation between MSTR and Bitcoin remains very strong, amplifying upside potential.
7. As long as Bitcoin continues its bullish trend, MSTR is positioned to benefit disproportionately.
8. The recent descending wedge on the chart is typically a bullish reversal pattern.
9. A breakout above this wedge could trigger a strong rally back toward previous highs.
10. Given the technical setup and Bitcoin’s momentum, MSTR has a realistic path to a new ATH and potentially beyond.
$MSTR to push above $400 again?NASDAQ:MSTR had it's 3rd touch off this blue trend line and usually when it does that, it forms a strong move in the other direction.
As long as this trend line holds, I think it's likely that we can see a move back above $400.
I've marked off key levels as resistance.
Took calls between $367.5 and $410.
MSTR - Here comes #5 at the CenterlineRemember when I said, I do it again Sam?
Nothing changed. Only the price in the consolidation at P4.
This will temporarily end at P5 (Yellow Count), where I'll take my profit. With a little pressure, price will even make it to the L-MLH.
Then I'll relax and watch, how the Chickens run around and create new opportunity. 🐔🐓
Don't be a Chicken, be the 🦊 Fox 🦊, be clever and have patience.
Happy new week all §8-)
MSTR ZONES OF CONFLUENCECalled this out some time back. Sometimes MSTR gives the cleanest setups on where price is headed as the Mnav and its tradable premium to Bitcoin decouple - a result of shareholder dilution, CAMT tax obligations, as well as interest payments on its preferred. Because of this, riding the down trend is clear and easy until respectfully breaks the upper threshold of support turned resistance - 360.
BTC Exhaustion at $100K Could Trigger $MSTR Structural WeaknessI’ve been tracking Bitcoin’s price action, and buyers look exhausted at these levels. Since July, BTC has been topping out. There’s strong support at the $100K area — with the 200MA right around $103K — this zone is the battleground. If buyers lose it, we’re looking at a possible break of structure at $100K.
We all know NASDAQ:MSTR isn’t really a software company anymore — it’s basically a Bitcoin Treasury play. The model is simple: raise capital (debt, equity), buy more BTC, repeat. That means if BTC breaks lower, MSTR usually gets hit even harder. Leverage cuts both ways.
For me, $317 is the key level. If MSTR loses that, I’m targeting $300. I’ve already picked up some long puts at the $295 strike. My rule: if the premium drops 30%, I cut it as a wrong play. If it holds, I’ll ride it until it’s at-the-money.
As always — manage risk like your survival depends on it. Because it does.
The Next Big Crypto Trade Bitcoin has experienced a notable decline following a failed auction attempt after sweeping all-time high liquidity. This move is now being followed by a significant retracement toward the lower boundary of the broader range, with the current range low positioned around $111K.
In contrast, MicroStrategy (MSTR) has exhibited a more structurally defined downtrend, having broken below its previous pivot low. This price action potentially forms a textbook ABC corrective pattern, with the 1:1 extension target clearly identifiable.
Should the broader market continue to decline in the lead-up to this week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s remarks, a compelling long setup may emerge. This could coincide with a potential 'sell-the-news' reaction, particularly if the Federal Reserve moves to cut interest rates.
Rate-sensitive equities and assets may initially respond to such news with bullish enthusiasm, possibly triggering a wave of market euphoria and leading to a short squeeze scenario.
I’m closely monitoring the $320 level on MSTR, which aligns with three key technical confluences:
The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the overall move (swing low to swing high).
The 1:1 extension target of the possible ABC corrective structure.
A key support/resistance flip zone, which may mark a potential structural pivot point.
This zone presents a high-probability area for potential price reaction. Let’s see how this plays out.
MSTR....set-up not looking goodNASDAQ:MSTR is below 9, 50, 200SMA! That's about the clearest red flag you can see. There could be some volatility, but would be very careful as it crosses down 330, 300 and then possibly the next support line is further down as people dump hard. CBOE:MSTZ is a nice inverse play here! Best of luck
MSTR further winding up with a 1-2 1-2 1-2? Looks like MSTR might have just finished and ending diagonal for another wave c of 2. This could also just be a 1-2 1-2 still but so far counting it as a 1-2 1-2 1-2.
Either way, it looks like it is ready to rip to 380. Will see in the next couple of sessions how this plays out.
MSTR - Trendline Support vs. Supply Cap!MSTR has been overall bullish on the daily, respecting a rising trendline since last year. Price is coiling right beneath the 330–350 supply band after multiple rejections.
This area is key 🔑. It overlaps prior supply and the rising trendline—clean confluence. If bulls defend the trendline and we see a clean daily close above 350, momentum could extend toward 400 first, then 470–520 inside the broader range 🚀.
If the trendline gives way, I’ll look for a deeper dip toward 260–240 demand before bulls try again. Until then, structure favors the upside while the line holds.
What’s your plan => buy strength above 350 or wait for a retest on the trendline first? 🤔
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
down trend looks to rejoin 300 as the trend continuesUnless we see a significant breakaway from the descending triangle, it could widen and turn to symmetrical which aligns in with the ascending line set to rejoin its pattern. That could be a major shift if it bounces off resistance on the current pattern first.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) Technical Analysis – September 2025 Technical Outlook:
• The stock is currently trading around $344 after a solid bounce from a key demand zone at $300 – $320.
• The MACD indicator shows a recent bullish crossover, with green histogram bars starting to form → signaling a potential continuation of upward momentum.
• On the daily chart, the first resistance zone is at $400 – $405, followed by an extended target at $440.
Trade Setup (Swing Idea):
• Entry Zone: $340 – $345.
• Stop Loss: Below $290 (a breakdown would invalidate the bullish setup).
• Targets:
• TP1: $400 (partial take-profit).
• TP2: $405.
• TP3: $440.
The Risk/Reward ratio (RRR) is attractive here (above 2:1).
Analysts’ View:
• Most analysts rate MSTR as Strong Buy / Buy.
• The 12-month price targets range between $530 – $600, with some optimistic projections going as high as $700.
• Key risk: MSTR’s performance is highly correlated with Bitcoin (BTC). Any strong BTC retracement could weigh heavily on the stock.
Conclusion:
MicroStrategy shows bullish technical signals after rebounding from strong support, supported by momentum indicators and positive analyst outlook.
Still, strict risk management is crucial, given the stock’s volatility and its dependence on Bitcoin’s price movements.
$MSTR Falling Below the 50WMA in 2021 Bull Market Here's a look at last cycle where NASDAQ:MSTR trading under the 50WMA for several weeks led to the CRYPTOCAP:BTC bear market.
The reason why this was so significant last cycle is because they were responsible for such a large share of BTC buy pressure.
This cycle we have lots of other treasury companies, with many more to come, as well as ETFs of course, so I'm not as concerned with this PA.
$MSTR Must Close This Week Above the 50WMA Or Else...The MicroStrategy chart is the only top signal that is somewhat cause for concern at the current moment.
You can see NASDAQ:MSTR has closed the past several weeks below the 50WMA, which signaled the start of the bear market last cycle.
Having said that, it has had a bullish rally this week and is trading above the 50WMA once again.
MSTR must close the week above this level, otherwise the stock could be in for a much deeper correction, which could negatively affect CRYPTOCAP:BTC in October.
Where have you heard that October prediction before?
Coincidence? 🥸
Is $MSTR only game in town? Charts seem to disagree. NASDAQ:MSTR was the first CRYPTOCAP:BTC treasury company in Wall Street. It provided the leverage required on the price by CRYPTOCAP:BTC by borrowing against its balance sheet and buying $BTC. This has worked well for Strategy as it was the only game in the town. But not anymore. With new Crypto treasury company coming to the public every single day and CRYPTOCAP:BTC treasury companies in abundance the attractiveness of NASDAQ:MSTR is decreasing.
In the chart below we check NASDAQ:MSTR stock price vs BITSTAMP:BTCUSD and see that it peaked in Nov 2024. Since then, it is a series of lower highs and lower lows. The downward sloping channel also makes things complicated for the stock in the mid-term. Just on the weekly there is some support in the chart between 0.0026 and 0.0021. This also happens to be between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fib retracement levels.
My assessment is we can see some support at 0.618 Fib levels but make no mistake if Crypto bear market comes in 2026 – 2027 then the ratio chart can visit the all-time lows of 0.0007.
Verdict: NASDAQ:MSTR / $ BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is in clear downturn. It can find support at 0.618 Fib retracement level. Ratio can visit the cycle lows of 0.0007.
MSTR - pattern and downtrend breakoutMSTR - Stock held $320 support level multiple times and now breaking out of triangle pattern. Calls looking good as long as $335 holds for a move towards $350 and higher. Stock is decent at the indicator level. rate cut tomorrow could push the bitcoin and the stock higher.
a megaphone over 500A good signal right on time was Powell saying he would change his monetary policy (he said he would adjust it). Then Bitcoin and all the equities hurt by the recent drops resumed the solid uptrend we’ve been seeing. They came back to consolidate technical levels and give us new highs. In the case of MSTR, we can see the formation of a megaphone pattern that could take us above 500 USD.






















