MSTR with Global Liquidity indicator shifted fwd by 2,3 months (my preference). GL is trending back up to its previous ATH from 2 months ago, which should be great for BTC. I 'hope" it works out for MSTR, but this conversation is to figure out why did MSTR decouple from BTC on May 12, and whether MSTR ever will trend with BTC, and Global Money supply again, or has Wall Street moved on. No one except thelogman has an opinion. This chart is just my observation. If anyone has a theory worth sharing on why MSTR has dumped while BTC made 2 ATHs recently, please provide facts, and who, what, where, when and why. don't just say "because". TIA.
MSTRthelogman if you are right, by extension, then, Saylor's game with MSTR common shares is simply: they are his bank with which to do as he pleases to boost the BTC holdings and support the preferred/senior shares which get paid first if things go to hell. Now that he has the preferreds, the MSTR shares literally don't matter to him anymore. Watch to see what happens with a stonk buyback when the nMAV goes below 1; does he have the guts to buy back? In this hypothetical scenario, he has no intention of intervening and trying to boost or cheerlead MSTR's price. In fact, his rhetoric will increasingly move away from MSTR stock and more towards the future of BTC and the preferreds. Either optimistically, he truly believes the preferreds are the future of finance and the share price of MSTR makes it worth it all, or cynically, he is simply feathering his nest for the worst case scenario so he is set for life (or a mix of both)
MSTR I hope Logman is getting paid to write novels every single day about of much he hates Saylor and MSTR I’ve never seen someone write so much DAILY about something they dislike so much. What a waste of time and energy like really do you have any other hobbies ? or are you getting paid to waste your entire life writing so much on MSTR ? Serious question ? Get a life man.
MSTR And by the way, as part of the risk-assessment done by the sell-side brokers that handle the STRx sales, the CEO would have been fully warned and briefed by the compliance department of the dealer-firms that this would be a by-product of selling bonds in a high-beta company. He would have been warned that the bond buyers would short the underlying in order to hedge those positions into something closer fixed income.
In fact, I'd lay 100:1 odds those same broker-dealers helped find the shares to short in order to facilitate the transactions and get the deals placed. Now, here is the real kicker: Guess from whom they located those shares? From Saylor himself the following weeks as he continued to hit the ATM with common shares.
And again, Saylor would have been fully informed what the game plan was but he was willing to go along with it to satisfy his addiction of buying more BTC. Shareholders are not at the top of his list of priorities.
MSTRginnovinc The vast majority of those shares you see shorted were not done to manipulate the stock. They are short positions established to hedge the $6 billion in bonds Saylor has sold this year. I warned this could happen back when Saylor started selling the STRx series and that the bond sales would lead lead to a depressed stock price and the decoupling of the mNAV.
The people that buy the bonds are looking for safe, stable dividend income. MSTR is anything but safe and stable. So in order to make their positions work, they short the stock as a hedge against their bitcoin-backed bonds taking a nose dive and leaving them upside down, effectively blanking out their dividend gains. So by shorting the stock, they'll make money either way and still collect their dividends in the meanwhile.
Once their bonds rise to xx% amount above par, they will slowly unwind their bond positions and close their short positions at the same time. This is standard, straight out of the playbook stuff on Wall Street. There is nothing nefarious going on here and they are not out to get the little guy. When you have a few billion dollars, collecting a few thousand from the little guys is not even on your radar screen.
For the small investor, this is all part of the due-diligence that should be done PRIOR to buying a stock with your hard earned money. That's how those billionaires got to be billionaires in the first place. Failure to do your homework will just leave you complaining after the fact that the billionaires are out to get you. But in truth, you are just getting out-worked by other people. Complaining after the fact is just passing blame to other people for your own shortcomings rather than taking responsibility. I'm not trying to be harsh here, just telling the truth. Recognizing our own mistakes is how we mature and advance as investors/traders and move to the next level.