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Tesla, Inc.

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The Anatomy of a TSLA Retracement TradeBased on a detailed analysis of Tesla's recent price action, a compelling bearish thesis suggests that the stock is poised for a significant retracement. The current market structure indicates that the recent rally may be unsustainable, necessitating a retest of a critical support level to re-establish a more stable foundation. The Bearish Hypothesis: Retracement to Trendline Support The core thesis is that the price is set to retrace and test the integrity of the ascending diagonal support trendline. This is not an indication of a full trend reversal, but rather a high-probability correction. T This corrective phase will likely see the price descend to the lower boundary of the channel. A retest of this key support trendline is a common and healthy technical pattern. Trade: A short position could be considered upon a clear rejection at the recent highs or upon a decisive breakdown of a minor support level, with the primary profit target being the ascending diagonal support trendline.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by GoldenTraderz_2025
Tesla Financials: Q1 2025The market is currently staging a short-term rally - essentially a speculative mean reversion bounce as a reaction to -55% crash from all-time high. This move appears driven largely by retail traders seizing what it perceives as a rare opportunity to accumulate an oversold "large-caps". While retail participation and opportunistic capital are supporting the current bounce, this alone is insufficient to sustain a full recovery. As the price approaches higher levels, particularly near key supply zones, it will likely encounter significant resistance, resulting in reversal. Let's not forget the fact that figures in Tesla’s Q4 '24 financial report initiated bearish sentiment among institutional investors which resulted in market crash. Similarly, the upcoming Q1 earnings report presents a clear downside risk, as the significant events throughout this quarter will inevitably be reflected in the financial figures! Anticipated impact of significant developments on Tesla’s Q1 2025 Financial Statements 🛑 Revenue Decline • U.S. Market Weakness: Lower-than-anticipated vehicle sales in the U.S. directly reduce automotive revenue. • Severe European Slump: A significant 76% sales decline in Germany and weakness elsewhere in Europe will notably reduce international revenues. • Chinese Market Challenges: A substantial 49% sales drop in China will negatively affect one of Tesla’s crucial growth markets. • Cybertruck Weakness and Recalls: Reduced demand and multiple recalls of Cybertruck models further erode revenue growth. • Resale Value Decline and Trade-Ins: Increased vehicle trade-ins indicate lower demand, causing inventory buildup, discounting pressures, and further sales reductions. 🛑 Gross Margin Erosion • Price Reductions and Sales Incentives: Competitive pressures and lower demand likely forced Tesla to reduce vehicle prices and offer incentives, compressing gross margins. • Increased Competition from BYD: BYD’s advanced battery technology (providing 400 km of range in just 5 minutes of charging) pressures Tesla to increase R&D spending or cut prices further, negatively affecting margins. • Production Challenges (Supply Chain and Battery Issues): Ongoing global supply chain disruptions and difficulties scaling battery production significantly increase manufacturing costs, further squeezing gross margins. 🛑 Increased Operating Expenses • Recall Costs and Legal Expenses: Vehicle recalls, along with lawsuits related to product issues such as phantom braking, will significantly increase warranty provisions, legal fees, and related operating expenses. • Protests and Vandalism Costs: Public backlash and vandalism necessitate additional expenditures on security, facility repairs, and public relations initiatives. • Employee Turnover Costs: Departures of key personnel result in increased recruiting, training, onboarding, and severance expenses. 🛑 Net Income and EPS Impact • Analyst Earnings Downgrades: Already-reduced EPS projections by major analysts suggest Tesla will likely report earnings below expectations, reflecting revenue shortfalls and elevated expenses. • $1.4 Billion Financial Discrepancy: If confirmed or unresolved, this discrepancy could lead to substantial asset impairments, restatements, or write-downs, negatively impacting net income and earnings per share (EPS). 🛑 Cash Flow and Liquidity Pressures • Lower Operating Cash Flows: Reduced revenue coupled with rising operating costs (including recalls, lawsuits, security, and PR spending) severely diminish cash generated from business operations. • Increased Capital Expenditures: Additional CapEx is likely required to address battery production bottlenecks and delays in autonomous driving technology development, resulting in elevated investing cash outflows. • Investor Divestment and Stock Volatility: Negative investor sentiment could lead to costly equity financing conditions if Tesla needs to raise capital, adversely affecting financing cash flows and liquidity. 🛑 Balance Sheet Risks • Rising Inventory Levels: Weak sales combined with continued vehicle production may lead to increased inventory levels, reducing cash and potentially requiring markdowns or provisions. • Debt and Liquidity Challenges: Deteriorating credit metrics or covenant breaches could make refinancing existing debt more expensive or complicated, negatively impacting Tesla’s financial stability.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by fract
7
TSLATechnical Analysis (Weekly Chart – TSLA, NASDAQ): Current Price: $395.94 (+12.85% in the latest session), showing strong bullish momentum. Support Zone (Buy Area): The chart highlights an attractive buying range between $300–330, where multiple moving averages converge, acting as dynamic support. Stop-Loss: Placed at $200, which sits well below the long-term trendline and previous key support. This ensures risk control in case of a major reversal. Target Zone: The bullish projection is toward the $608–650 area, aligning with previous resistance levels and a strong supply zone from 2021–2022. Trend & Structure: The stock recently broke out of a consolidation pattern (A–B–C–D) with strength, supported by high volume and upward momentum. Long-term moving averages (200-week shown in black) are flattening and turning up, signaling a potential multi-year bullish reversal. If price sustains above $330, the bullish scenario remains valid with the probability of continuation toward $600+. Outlook: Short-term: Possible minor retracement to $330–350 before resuming the uptrend. Medium- to Long-term: Bullish trend continuation toward $608–650. Risk: A breakdown below $300 would weaken the bullish case, and a fall under $200 would invalidate it completely. 📌 Summary: Tesla shows a strong bullish setup on the weekly chart. Entry zone is $300–330 with stop-loss at $200. The first major target is $608–650, offering an excellent risk–reward ratio for long-term investors.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by IbrahimTarek
1
Tesla Near Term SpeculationBuilding on the flag formation from the past 3 years, its possible an rising wedge could form. Very early days and highly speculative, but if price plays out somewhat like my chart, an ascending wedge could form. Indicating that Tesla may have hit a near/mid term high and can't won't break through for a few years, with several implied price crashes going into 2026 and 2027. Economic conditions and the apparent slow down in sales, would also support the technical analysis with macro fundamentals. Very curious to see how things play out, again, highly speculative, just wanted to post to remind myself to keep and eye on this. The potential volatility is presenting interesting trades ahead.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by sin3rgy
Tesla Wave Analysis – 12 September 2025- Tesla broke resistance area - Likely to rise to resistance level 414.50 Tesla recently broke the resistance area located at the intersection of the resistance level 360.00 (which has been reversing the price from February), resistance trendline of the daily up channel from July and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from December. The breakout of this resistance area accelerated the active impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from June. Tesla can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 414.50 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by FxProGlobal
You will ask yourself, "how did he know Tesla would do that"?I wrote this on my July 29th chart description (below): "Price action really has less to do with the news making Elon a hero, then a villain and then back and forth...but moreso to do with price action patterns that just keep repeating". Since then, the pattern has played out exactly as anticipated, and my 1st take profit target just hit (+22%). July 29th chart: Now the question remains, will Telsa hit my next target range (T2). Although it is a much larger range than my T1, I will monitor price action closely and use TA to get out near the top before the next major retracement. Let me know if you're into Tesla and if you are interested in me charting the top of this run. May the trends be with you.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Strangely-accurate
2
Tesla Breakout? For the majority of the calendar year TESLA has been in a range between $220 - $365 with a clear midpoint of $295. From March to the beginning of May TESLA bounced between range low and the midpoint until finally breaking through into the upper half of the range where it has stayed ever since. However, there is a clear diagonal resistance level that is preventing higher highs. So will TESLA breakout, or will it lose the midpoint? Structurally it is clear that the bulls have a set level they are happy to buy at (Midpoint) but the bears are getting more aggressive with their selling, hence the lower highs. This compression inevitably leads to an impulse move but the direction is not so clear. Bullish scenario: A clean breakout with volume that makes a new higher high, signaling a shift in structure. A pullback and retest of the breakout would be an ideal opportunity to go long and aim for that range high before expecting resistance. Bearish scenario: The lower highs keep printing until the midpoint is lost and price accepts below it, that would then signify to me the new trading range is between Range Low and Midpoint. The fakeout scenario is a risk but with price so close to the midpoint already it follows the same invalidation criteria as the bullish scenario, the midpoint is vital to both sides.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by ProR35
Follow-through buying on TSLA?Following a one-sided 6.0% gain in Tesla’s share price on Thursday, this helped lift the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh records. As shown in the chart below, the TSLA Stock rallied through a 6M resistance level of US$360.03 to a high of US$368.99, levels which have not been seen since earlier this year. Further buying could now be seen for the Stock towards the resistance between US$389.72 and US$383.09. However, before reaching said area, a pullback may occur, retesting US$360.03 as support, with a dip into 1M support from US$343.88 possible. Written by the FP Markets Research Team
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by FPMarkets
Possible retrace before upside moveThe initial upward move from 214 is corrective in nature. Since the current correction to 273 doesn't seem to be proper ABC correction, I am expecting further C wave correction to the Green box. Breaking the Red Box and the trendline with a retest will invalidate further downward correction. Based on the Major Indexes structure, I am not expecting Tesla to retrace below 213 as depicted by red line . Note **Disclaimer** : All details shared here is for educational purpose only. Please do your own research and consider appropriate risk management before making short term or long-term investment decisions. Approach Market always with probabilities and make sure risk management in place. Request your support by like, comment and follow
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Deep_Man
3