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FGLD1! trade ideas

Bonds vs Gold: Trading the Fiscal Dominance Divergence The Fed is expected to cut rates next week. Yet, the long-term Treasury yields refuse to come down. This disconnect signals that markets are no longer taking their cues from monetary policy alone. Heavy government borrowing, record bond issuance, and fading foreign demand are driving yields higher, a case of fiscal pressure overwhelming the Fed. The 30-year treasury yield this year has been around the levels seen before the 2008 market crash. Record issuance, foreign retrenchment, and sticky inflation have pushed term premia higher, leaving U.S. debt markets increasingly exposed to the kind of investor pushback, or ‘bond vigilante’ pressure, that has already destabilised markets like the UK. Globally, the lesson from the 2022 UK gilt crisis highlights how deficits and fiscal experimentation can quickly destabilise “risk-free” treasury assets. Against this backdrop, gold stands out not only as a symptom of market stress but also as an indicator of systemic uncertainty and a tradeable hedge in an era of stagflation. In today’s note, we hold the view that Treasuries remain under pressure while gold strengthens, supported by central-bank diversification, led by China. A Market Drowning in Supply The traditional easing cycle, where Fed rate cuts pull down yields, seems to be breaking down. With deficits above 6% of GDP in peacetime, Treasury supply now overwhelms demand. Foreign central banks, which are historically reliable marginal buyers, are now retreating. China has steadily reduced holdings, leaving domestic institutions and private markets to absorb the record issuance. Auction coverage ratios, or bid-to-cover ratios, a key gauge of investor appetite for Treasury securities, have steadily weakened, with recent 10-year sales drawing among the lowest bids of the amount offered in three years. The ratio at 2.35 is also 8.20% lower than the average of the past six auctions: Source: CME TreasuryWatch Over the past three years, the only instance where the ratio fell further below its six-auction moving average (MA6) was in November 2022, when it was 8.61% lower than the MA6: Source: MacroMicro The latest 30-year bond auction also cleared with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.27, well below the 2.43 average seen across the previous ten auctions . The last time it was this low was in November 2023. Historically, coverage nearer to a little over 2.5x was sustained by foreign central banks. Source: Thornburg But with countries like China now reducing holdings, private investors now demand higher yields to absorb issuance. Weak coverage has also amplified intraday swings, underscoring how Treasury volatility is increasingly supply-driven (as against being policy-driven). The dynamic underscores a structural shift: Treasuries are being increasingly priced as fiscal risk assets, and not merely monetary policy instruments. The UK Gilt Crisis: A Cautionary Tale The United States is not alone in testing bond market tolerance. There are other precedents, and not too far in the past. In late 2022, the UK government announced large unfunded tax cuts and spending plans, a fiscal package which was perceived by the markets to lead to a large deficit, and one that was unsustainable. Gilt yields spiked more than 100 basis points within days, the sharpest move in decades. Source: BoE This sudden rise hammered pension funds that had used derivatives to hedge liabilities through “liability-driven investment” (LDI) strategies. As gilt prices collapsed, these funds faced margin calls and were forced to dump assets to raise cash, creating a vicious cycle of selling and further yield spikes. The chart below shows how different investor groups reacted. LDIs were forced to dump gilts, driving their flows sharply negative. In contrast, others stepped in as buyers, taking advantage of the sell-off to accumulate bonds at higher yields. This highlights how forced selling by one sector can destabilise markets, while opportunistic buyers step in only once prices have fallen enough. Source: BoE The turmoil only stopped when the Bank of England stepped in with an emergency bond-buying program (the blue-dashed line), pledging to purchase long-dated gilts to restore order. In effect, the central bank had to act as a buyer simply to prevent a financial-stability crisis, ending at the green-dashed line, following which LDI flows started increasing. The gilt episode showed how quickly bond markets can punish fiscal missteps. When large deficits collide with skeptical investors, governments can lose the ability to fund themselves smoothly. That same tension now looms over the United States, where record issuance is testing the limits of bond market tolerance. Gold as Hedge and Signal Gold’s surge to a record $3,600/oz also reflects a deeper structural shift in how central banks manage reserves. As Treasuries lose some of their “risk-free” status in the eyes of investors, gold has re-emerged as a preferred hedge. Its traditional correlation with real yields has weakened; today, deficits, de-dollarisation, and reserve diversification are stronger drivers of the gold narrative. China is at the centre of this transformation. The People’s Bank of China bought 225 tons of gold in 2023, 44 tons in 2024, and another 21 tons so far in 2025, raising official reserves to around 2,300 tons. Source: Reuters Yet this is still well below what analysts view as necessary for an economy of China’s scale. Long-term targets range between 5,000 and 8,000 tons, implying years of sustained demand in the coming years. The precedent of Russia’s frozen reserves after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine has also reshaped central-bank behaviour. Gold, unlike dollar assets, cannot be sanctioned or seized if held domestically. For developing economies, where uncertainty has become systemic, this makes gold a uniquely secure store of value. That institutional bid, layered on top of investor demand, is a structural tailwind likely to support prices well beyond just short-term cycles. Hypothetical Trade Setup With U.S. 10Y Treasuries under supply-driven pressure even as the Fed eases, and gold benefiting from diversification flows, traders can express this divergence via a Treasury–Gold spread trade: Sell CME 10Y Treasury Yield Futures (10YU5) Buy CME Gold Futures (10ZZ5) The CME 10-Year Yield future is the benchmark instrument for expressing views on U.S. rate markets, a cleaner vehicle than cash Treasuries in this context because it isolates yield exposure. The 1-Ounce Gold future offers scalable precision compared to the standard 100-oz gold contract, making it ideal for tactical spread strategies. Together, they provide liquidity, transparency, and efficient margining to trade this macro divergence. The 10-Year Yield future (10YU5) is quoted in percentage points of yield, with each 0.001 index point worth $1 per contract. At the current level of 4.082%, the contract is effectively valued at about 4,082. By comparison, the 1-Ounce Gold future (10ZZ5) is quoted in dollars per ounce, currently trading at $3,653. In other words, one Treasury yield contract and one gold contract are already of a similar scale. Profit at Target Upside: 895 to 1000 = +105 points P/L: $429 per spread Loss at Stop Downside: 895 to 810 = –85 points P/L: –$347 to –$427 per spread depending on leg slippage Reward-to-Risk Ratio 105 / 85 = 1.24× MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX:1OZ1!Long
by mintdotfinance
GOLD | Buy & Sell Setup | 09 Sep 2025 – 10:32 EDTGOLD | Buy & Sell Setup | 09 Sep 2025 – 10:32 EDT Buy Zone: 3709 – 3682 Scenario 1 : Buy Entry: 3700 Stop Loss: 3685 Targets: TP1 → 3745   (1:3) Analysis: From Buy Zone (3709 – 3682) creates possibilities for a buy move. Scenario 2 : Sell Entry: 3685 Stop Loss: 3700 Targets: TP1 → 3670 TP2 → 3621 TP2 → 3604 Analysis: Below Buy Zone (3709 – 3682) creates possibilities for a sell move. Stay alert on updates here. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This idea is shared for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own analysis before making trading decisions.
COMEX:GC1!
by TrendReset
QQQ Macro Stress Gold ripping higher (+60% YoY) Investors are hedging inflation risk, currency debasement, or policy uncertainty Gold outperformance shows capital fleeing to “hard money” rather than growth assets CRBS/US10Y above 8% + US10Y trending down is a classic stagflation warning Economy faces cost pressures (gold pricing in inflation fears) Bond market is saying “growth is slowing/policy will ease" Commodities are saying “inflation pressures are rising" That’s the exact recipe for stagflation - weak real growth, sticky/accelerating inflation This is bearish-biased for QQQ unless CRBS/US10Y cools back below +8% because of multiple compression risk - growth narrative struggles if inflation is sticky while real growth is soft Valuations pressured by elevated yields No reflationary support from commodities Historically underperform in stagflation regimes This setup (gold vertical, CRBS/US10Y sinking) = stagflation hedge regime QQQ continues higher if yields stabilize & capital rotation pauses (20%) Possible if Fed pivots or inflation fears calm while liquidity remains strong QQQ consolidates near highs (30%) Yields + inflation fears cap upside, but strong AI/earnings narrative prevents a deep selloff Most likely outcome (50%) is stagflation + sticky yields compress multiples (5%–10% correction risk) CRBS/US10Y >8% while US10Y trends lower is one of the cleanest stagflation warning signals For QQQ it usually shifts probabilities heavily toward correction For gold/commodities it confirms continued strength
COMEX:GC1!
by pakoumal
Gold Eyes $3,700 Amid Overbought SignalsGold broke out of a multi-month trading range when the spot price finally cleared resistance around $3,450. It took some time for the ascending triangle to play out, and this could mean gold is now on its way towards $3,700. However, the metal has quickly reached overbought levels and may be due for a pause. Breaking Out The breakout could be significant and may trigger a move to much higher levels over time; it just doesn’t mean it will all happen at once. One way to measure the breakout from the ascending triangle pattern suggests the precious metal could climb to about $3,700. The relative strength index also confirms the breakout, rising above a downtrend that had formed between April and August. The rise above the trend line on the RSI confirms the breakout and signals that the consolidation period has ended. Overbought However, the precious metal did not take long to reach overbought levels, with its value rising above the upper Bollinger Band and the relative strength index climbing over 70. This could mean that gold is due for a pause—a period of sideways consolidation—before moving on to higher prices. It could also suggest that the metal is about to run out of steam, having expended too much energy breaking out of the consolidation range, and may be due for a sharp pullback to $3,440 to retest the breakout, or even a decline towards the lower Bollinger Band near $3,200. Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management. Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
CMCMARKETS:GOLDZ2025
by cmcmarkets
A Gold/GLD Drop Scenario You Should Not IgnoreSometimes you don't need a ton of information. Sometimes, it's just the right moment when a few facts come together, and you make up your mind. That's the case now with Gold for me. We know that the behavior changed when Gold left the Fork in July. We also know that if price leaves a Fork, it's highly possible we’ll see a test/re-test at the L-MLH, the lower median line parallel. Additionally, Allan H. Andrews, the inventor of the Median Lines/Forks, wrote back then that price could also crawl along the parallel line for a longer period. And if price can't manage to jump back into the Fork—regaining the trajectory of the slope—it will trade in the opposite direction sooner or later. Last but not least: I checked GLD too. Surprisingly it reached the Centerline just yesterday (See screenshot in the right lower corner of the Chart). So price has a high tendency to turn in the opposite direction when balanced again. So, there you have it. I’m planning a short, with profits at the WL as my first target. But what if it goes wrong, if price climbs higher? Well, then I’ll probably get stopped out, which is nothing more than part of this business. Any questions? Don't hesitate to ask me. It's the only way humans learn—by asking questions. Cheers §8-)
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
Options Blueprint Series [Basic]: Gold Income or Bargain Entry?The Setup: A Pullback with a Plan Gold has been riding a strong bullish wave, yet momentum indicators suggest it's time for a breather. RSI is now overbought, and if history repeats, we could see a healthy correction of up to 9.29%, in line with prior pullbacks. This projects price near 3255, where we also find a cluster of UnFilled Orders (UFOs) acting as a potentially relevant support. It’s a key price area where buyers may step in again. Rather than try to perfectly time the correction or the bottom, we’re applying a more forgiving approach: selling a PUT far below current price—generating income while leaving room to be wrong by over 375 points. This is not a hedge. This is a standalone income strategy that accepts risk but frames it intelligently using technical context and options structure. The Strategy: Selling the 3250 PUT on GC We're using a simple but powerful strategy—selling a naked PUT—which can generate income or result in ownership of Gold at a deep discount if price dips. Underlying Asset: GCZ2025 – using Gold Futures Options (Nov 24 2025 Expiration) Strategy: Sell 1x 3250 PUT Premium Collected: 10.09 points ≈ $1,009 Breakeven Price: 3240 Max Profit: $1,009 (if Gold stays above 3250 until expiration) Max Risk: Unlimited below breakeven There are two possible outcomes here: Gold stays above 3250 → we keep the full premium. Gold drops below 3250 → we get assigned and become long GC at 3250. From there, we’re exposed to downside risk in Gold, with a breakeven at 3240. The position benefits from time decay and stable to rising prices, but it does carry the full downside exposure of long Gold futures if the trade moves against us. We want to be very clear here—this is a naked trade with undefined risk. That doesn’t make it reckless if done with sizing discipline and technical alignment, but it’s not a beginner-friendly strategy. Gold Contract Specs Understanding the size and risk of what you're trading is critical—especially with naked options. ✅ GC – Gold Futures (Full Size) Symbol: GC Contract Size: 100 troy ounces Tick Size: 0.10 = $10 Point Value: 1 point = $100 Initial Margin (as of Sep 2025): ~$15,000 per contract (subject to change) Underlying for the Option: GC Futures ✅ MGC – Micro Gold Futures Symbol: MGC Contract Size: 10 troy ounces Tick Size: 0.10 = $1 Point Value: 1 point = $10 Initial Margin: ~$1,500 per contract (subject to change) Why does this matter? Because if GC collapses below 3250 and you're assigned long, you’ll be exposed to full-size futures. That’s $100 per point of movement. A 50-point drop? That's $5,000 in unrealized loss. That’s where MGC becomes your best ally. Micro Gold futures offer a scalable way to hedge. If price begins moving down or breaks below the support zone, one could short MGC against the Short GC 3250 PUT to cap further losses or rebalance directional exposure with reduced size and margin impact. The Technical Confluence: Where Structure Meets Strategy The 3250 strike isn’t just a random number—it’s calculated. Historical RSI-based corrections in Gold have shown recent worse-case scenarios around 9.29%, and projecting that from recent highs lands us precisely near the 3255 zone. This level also aligns with a clear UFO support, where institutional buyers have likely left behind unfilled orders. That confluence—statistical retracement, technical indicator, and order flow support—gives the 3250 strike an interesting probability structure. Selling a Put beneath it means we are placing our bet below the “floor” and getting paid while we wait. If Gold never corrects that far, we profit. If it does, we might get long near a historically meaningful level. There’s no need to catch the top. There’s no need to nail the bottom. Just structure the trade where the odds are already potentially skewed in your favor. Trade Plan: Reward, Risk & Realism This trade isn’t about precision entry or leveraged glory—it’s about risk-defined logic with a cash-flow twist. Here's the full breakdown: 🧠 Trade Parameters Strategy: Sell 1x Gold Futures 3250 PUT Options Premium Collected: 10.09 points = $1,009 Point Value (GC): $100/point Breakeven Price: 3240 (3250 – 10) Expiration: Nov 24, 2025 🟩 If Gold Stays Above 3250 You keep the full premium → $1,009 profit 🟥 If Gold Falls Below 3250 You may be assigned 1 GC contra<ct long at 3250 Unrealized losses begin below breakeven (3240) Losses can be significant if Gold falls aggressively ⚠️ Reward-to-Risk? Reward is capped at $1,009 Risk is unlimited below breakeven The trade only makes sense if you're prepared to own Gold, or hedge dynamically via MGC or using any other technique This isn’t a “set-and-forget” income play—it’s a calculated entry into a structured exposure with a fallback plan. Risk Management: No Margin for Error Selling naked options isn’t “free money.” It’s responsibility wrapped in premium. Here's what must be considered: ❗ Undefined Risk When you sell a naked PUT, you're exposed to the full downside. If Gold drops $100 below your strike, that’s a $10,000 loss. Don’t sell naked options unless you’re ready—and capitalized—to buy the underlying or actively hedge it. 🔄 Use MGC to Hedge If Gold breaks below 3250, using Micro Gold Futures (MGC) offers a surgical way to hedge risk without overleveraging. A simple short MGC can offset GC losses proportionally, depending on how aggressive the move becomes. 🧮 Precision Matters Avoid entering trades too early or too large. Place an “invalidation” point: if price violates the support zone with conviction, reduce or hedge exposure. Never sell premium just because it’s “high”—sell where structure backs the trade. 📊 Discipline Trumps Direction This strategy is valid only if risk is respected. The market doesn’t owe anyone consistency—but a structured, risk-controlled approach keeps you in the game long enough to see it. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
Gold Futures Short Into Asia 9/7/25Based on the current Fair Value Gap (FVG), Order Block (OB), and the liquidity resting below, I anticipate gold will retrace toward the Point of Control (POC) identified on the volume profile. This would provide an ideal setup for short-term selling opportunities during tonight’s PM session. My expectation is for price to open lower, push into the 3658 range, and present a bearish entry signal. From there, I’ll be targeting shorts toward the equilibrium of the FVG around 3619, which also aligns closely with previous session highs and lows—adding confluence to the setup.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by jasonrraynor
GC 4H icc analysisGold has been in a clear uptrend and ran into resistance between 3574.6/3587.9. Price broke the zone and indicated that sellers were weak above 3587.9, continued to climb making a new high before correcting back below the zone. Once price hit a support, it continued back above 3587.9 aggressively making a new indication and a new high. Entry: around 3587.9 (after reversal confirmation on 1 hour) Stop loss: Below last low Target: Last swing high Not financial advice.
COMEX:GCV2025Long
by greenlite_ceo
Gold Futures (GC1!) UpdateCurrent Price: ~$3,588 Gold recently broke out to new highs but is now pulling back after a sharp rally. ✅ Bullish Case * Trend is still strong overall (higher highs & higher lows). * If price holds above $3,550–$3,570, bulls may push for a retest of $3,620–$3,650. ❌ Bearish Case *If gold breaks below $3,550, a deeper pullback toward $3,480–$3,450 is possible. 🎯 Takeaway * Short-term pullback after a strong run. * Key support = $3,550 zone. * Watch for a bounce to confirm continuation, or a break lower for correction. 📝 Quick Chart Guide for Newbies * Candlesticks: Green = price went up, Black = price went down. * Trend: Gold has been trending up since late 2024 (higher peaks & dips). * Resistance: Around $3,620–$3,650 (where sellers step in). * Key Support: Around $3,550 (where buyers step in). 👉 In simple terms: Gold is still bullish, but needs to stay above $3,550 to keep momentum. 👉 What’s your bias? Long continuation or short-term pullback? Don't forget to drop your comments/ideas, boost the post, and follow me for more updates! -Neo
COMEX:GC1!
by Neotrader_CFT
16
buyers are being setup for a trap , it seems obvious but dontmy theory for gold sells *I was initially bullish until I noticed a few tricky things * structure number 2 is not a solid low, meaning they have not proven themselves to be stronger than number 1 sellers, because they have not created a push above them, so this low is misleading and not a proper stop * obv is in a downtrend while price is in an uptrend, obv in downtrend means that there is an increased selling interest , so this diverging from price going up can only mean .... there are no buyers and price is not going up due to a huge amount of buying power but the sellers are not pushing too hard in specific areas * the 3 support lines are not solid support, in fact they are all wicks and 'fake lows' * I dont have a solid stop to enter a short, but all these things + divergence on rsi and mfi is just telling me that the obvious buy trade might be a trap
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by jacesabr_real
1