Weakening economy? How about pawn shops?@matthias brought up EZPW in a conversation we were having today and we got talking about how pawn shops are like BNPL stocks, but with interest income and physical collateral in case loans don't get paid back. In what looks to be a somewhat sputtering economy that I, personally, think will get weaker as AI gets better and better at replacing more and more people at their jobs, stocks like these offer relative security.
They are somewhat inversely correlated to the market - when things get worse in the economy, business tends to pick up for them. If inflation re-enters the chat, they have physical collateral/inventory (a lot of which is gold and silver jewelry) that rises in value. You can see how it performed back when the tariff tantrum was going on in Feb and March.
It has been in a strong and steady uptrend all year, and is currently well above its 200 EMA. A rebound in gold should, in theory, help stocks like this one, too. The method I'm using here today has resulted in 26 winning trades on the year, with 0 losses. The average gain is about 1.84% (this is a first profitable close method) and the average trade length was 4.4 trading days. This generated a .42% per day held gain, which is +106% annualized.
As a bonus, 21 of the 26 trades closed in 1 or 2 trading days, freeing up my money to go back to work elsewhere if this plays out that way too. Not many other stocks in the market right now offer a chart that looks like this, with fundamentals that get rosier as things elsewhere in the portfolio get gloomier. I got in at the close at 158 even.
If the trade drags out, I will happily add to the position tactically and take profits on those additions the same way.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
