Could Li Auto become the new Tesla?If you would like to be notified whenever I post a new article, just click "FOLLOW" at the top. Also, if you would like to elaborate on a particular topic or need some advice, please comment below the article and I will be happy to help.
Could Li Auto become the new Tesla?
Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI) reported better-than-expected results for the fourth quarter and its forecast for the first quarter of 2004 was quite impressive, sending the stock soaring. Not only did it outperform competitors in the start-up electric vehicle market, including NIO (NIO) and XPeng (XPEV), but it also expects to deliver between 100,000 and 103,000 electric vehicles in the first quarter of 2004. The company is targeting a massive full-year delivery volume of 800,000 electric vehicles, the CEO said earlier this month. With an increase in vehicle margins in the previous quarter, I believe Li Auto is a solid bet in the Chinese electric vehicle market that has the potential to outperform in FY 2024.
The company stands out from other electric vehicle manufacturers because of its impressive growth in deliveries. According to forecasts, by fiscal year 2024, Li Auto could surpass the total number of deliveries in its history. In 2023, the company achieved record deliveries and revenues, and it is possible that it will reach 800,000 electric vehicles delivered in 2024. With a 182 percent increase from the previous year, Li Auto delivered a total of 376,030 electric vehicles in 2023. In comparison, NIO delivered 160,038 vehicles with an annual growth of 31%, while XPeng delivered 141,601 (up 17%). In other words, in FY2023 Li Auto grew about six times faster than NIO and 11 times faster than XPeng.
It was confirmed in December that Li Auto plans to start delivering its latest product, the Li Mega multipurpose electric vehicle, in March 2024. The unveiling of the Li Mega EV at last year's Guangzhou Auto Show was a success, with 10,000 reservations received within the first two hours after reservations opened. With a price tag of less than 600,000 Chinese yuan ($84,500), this could lead to a greater acceleration in Li Auto's revenue.
We will now analyze LI AUTO using TRADING VIEW, a key program for equity investment. TRADINGVIEW is like having an intelligent financial advisor who always offers up-to-date data on companies and uses automatic calculations to assess the potential of each company from a technical point of view.
From the overall view, it is clear that the stock is in excellent condition, with all technical indicators signaling a buy position.
Thanks to TRADINGVIEW, we can get accurate data on the company's profitability, as shown in the chart that demonstrates a steady increase in profits.
When it comes to investing in stocks, there are safer ways to do so. One option is investment certificates that provide monthly coupon streams and at the same time protect capital from the ups and downs of the stock market. In this way, you can earn returns over the long term without having to worry about the risks associated with market fluctuations.
An excellent opportunity for my investment is certificate CH1314029567, with LI AUTO and NIO as underlyings. It has a term of 24 months, an autocall mechanism that activates 6 months after issuance, and a continuous barrier of 50 percent, which guarantees protection of my capital. If the price does not fall below the barrier at maturity, I will receive 100% repayment of principal and coupons. In addition, this certificate offers monthly coupons equal to 1.50% of the total investment for a total return of 18%.
We look forward to reading you in the next article! And remember, if you want to be successful in trading, rely on TradingView: an indispensable tool that can help you avoid serious mistakes during your trades. Purchase the package through this link to take advantage of all its benefits.
www.tradingview.com
LI trade ideas
Li Auto ($LI) Racing Higher.Li Auto ( NASDAQ:LI ) reported strong fourth-quarter earnings early Monday. The Chinese EV maker guided somewhat lower on Q1, but LI stock raced higher.
Li Auto Earnings
Li Auto earned 60 cents per ADS, up from 4 cents a year earlier. Revenue soared 130% to $5.88 billion. Analysts expected Li Auto earnings per ADS of 44 cents on revenue of $5.5 billion.
Li Auto already reported on Jan. 1 that it delivered a record 131,805 vehicles, with its cheapest EV, the L7, accounting for 52,552, or 40%.
Li Auto Outlook
The EV maker forecast Q1 revenue of $4.4 billion to $4.53 billion, up 66%-71% vs. a year earlier in local currency terms, though that's below analyst forecasts. Deliveries are expected to be 100,000-103,000, up 90%-96% vs. a year earlier but down from Q4's record 131,805. That's also under Wall Street targets.
Li ( NASDAQ:LI ) delivered 31,365 EVs in January, up 106% vs. a year earlier but down 38% vs. December. That implies February-March sales of 68,635-71,635.
China auto sales are typically weak in January-February. Sales tend to peak at year-end, while the extended China New Year holiday has a big impact on production and sales.
Li Auto ( NASDAQ:LI ) will report February sales on Friday, March 1, along with XPeng (XPEV), Nio (NIO) and several other China EV makers. EV and battery giant BYD (BYDDF) will report on March 1 or 2.
Li Auto Upcoming Models
Li Auto currently sells three premium SUVs, the L7, L8 and L9. All are extended range electric vehicles (EREVs), essentially a form of plug-in hybrid.
On March 1, Li Auto ( NASDAQ:LI ) will formally launch the Mega MPV, or minivan, its first fully battery electric vehicle (BEV). That had been pushed back from early in the year. The electric MPV, or minivan, segment is getting crowded, with the Li Mega joining the less expensive, but still premium, XPeng X9 and BYD's Denza D9.
Li also will unveil the 2024 versions of the L7, L8 and L9 on March 1. The automaker also plans to launch three more BEV models in the second half of 2024.
Li Auto Stock
Li Auto stock jumped 19% to 41.44 in Monday market trading. Shares are down 7% in 2024 of Feb. 23, but have rebounded strongly since hitting a seven-month low of 26.43 on Jan. 22.
LI AUTO TP 35 BEFORE EARNINGS Li Auto, a China-based electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, has been receiving positive attention from investors and analysts. Here are some reasons why:
Ambitious Goals: Li Auto’s management has set an ambitious vehicle-delivery goal1. They aim to sell at least 400,000 units of the Li L7, Li L8, and Li L9 in 20241, which would exceed their total of 376,030 vehicles sold in 20231.
Innovative Ideas: Li Auto is trying out an interesting idea similar to what Nio is doing1. This could be referring to Nio’s flagship showroom, known as Nio House, which is a unique vehicle showroom that resembles a home1.
Strong Partnerships: Li Auto has a partnership with Nvidia, where Nvidia’s Drive Thor autonomous driving chip will power Li Auto’s ET9 electric sedan1.
New Launches: Li Auto is gearing up to launch its flagship multi-purpose vehicle, the Li MEGA, on March 11.
Positive Analyst Recommendations: Li Auto Inc. Sponsored ADR currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.10, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations made by five brokerage firms
LI Auto Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold the Top on LI:
or ahead of the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of LI Auto prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 38usd strike price in the money Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-11-24,
for a premium of approximately $2.93.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Do Li's electric vehicles are charged enough for Q4? One of my favourite ideas in electrical vehicle space - China's Li.
Mid-term price structure still looks bullish to my eyes, despite Sep's sell-off bellow 50D MA. While the price is still under it (what is a "no-go" rule for any substantial long trades for me), I do like how price managed to find foothold slightly crossing below the ideal support zone.
In the ideal world, I would argue that price is trying to form the bottom of what will later form into the lower are of a cup. That means that the price needs to hold above 33 area and start building the right side and later the handle of the reliable cup-and-handle pattern.
In the short-term, I want the price to reclaim 21ema and fill the gap-down, happened late September. If the price follows through, we will see the key moving averages ordering into the right bullish sequence: 8ema/21ema/50ma what will probably provide us with the MA's crossover and at least several days tight cheat area with low risk-entry point.
The fundamental side of Li's story makes almost the perfect case for the next up-cycle's true market leader: top-level triple digits earnings and sales growth last quarter, consistent double digits 3 quarters sales growth; super high annual earnings estimates. I would place a bet, that if price manages to move above 50D MA, institutional sponsorship will be increasing providing the fuel for the suggested bullish scenario.
LI Auto Options Ahead of Earnings If you haven`t sold LI when they reduced the delivery outlook:
Or on this Earnings Release:
Then Analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of LI Auto prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 20usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-5-17,
for a premium of approximately $0.60.
I think there is still some upside momentum left, followed by a big selloff by the end of the year.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Li Auto (‘LI’)Shares in Li Auto Inc (symbol ‘LI’) had a profitable second quarter with gains of more than 2o% while the company is currently at a staggering +83% compared to 1st of March. The company’s earnings report for the fiscal quarter ending June 2023 is set to be released on Tuesday 8th of August, before market open. The consensus EPS is $0.19 compared to the same quarter of last year at $-0.01.
‘The company is performing exceptionally well for the time being and has also outperformed its rivals Xpeng and Nio in car deliveries for July. Li Auto delivered the most cars in July with an increase of 227.5% year-on-year. The company may not be the ideal candidate in terms of dividend payouts but its balance sheet as of 31/12/2022 shows a ratio of assets to liabilities of 2:1. Also the current ratio of 245% further supports the narrative of a financially healthy company.’ said Antreas Themistokleous, an analyst at Exness
On the technical side the price has been trading in an upward movement since mid May and continues until the date of this report. The price is trading above the upper band of the Bollinger bands indicating that volatility is fueled up in the market while the Stochastic oscillator is in the extreme overbought levels for almost one month straight. This could mean that we might see a correction in the market before resuming the overall bullish trend.
The 50 day moving average is trading well above the 100 day moving average further confirming the validity of the bullish momentum
All in all the company seems to be at its best but even though “the trend is your friend” it is not very wise to jump on a trade when the share is near its all time high!
LI , a Chinese EV manufacturer LONGLI has seen a 60% price rise since significantly beating the earnings estimates of the analysts.
LI competes with TSLA and NIO primarily in Chinese and perhaps a little in Scandinavia. It
does not import to North America. The 2H chart shows price rising consistently in a channel
between the first and second standard deviation lines above the mean anchored VWAP
demonstrating trend persistence and momentum. The zero-lag MACD shows a line cross
at the zero horizontal line and rising as confirmation of bullish momentum. I see $40
as a reasonable target at the level of the 3rd upper standard deviation lines. With the
next earnings report due August 21st, I will take a long trade of ten call options striking
$38.00 expiring 8/18/23. On the last trading day, this option had a low of $1.75 and
a high of $1.90 for an intraday rise of about 8%. The contracts will cost about $1900.
I am expecting about a 3% average rise compounded over 30 trading days or 250%
return on the trade.
$LI Swimming Against The CurrentWith its plans to ramp up its production in Q4 2023 to meet the huge demand it is seeing, Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) may see an increase in sales in Q4 which could see it reaching full year profitability for the first time in its history. Meanwhile, LI stock has the potential to continue soaring on the upcoming June 2023 delivery data if its deliveries increase from the 28,277 it delivered in May. Given LI’s trend of growing its deliveries despite the headwinds facing other Chinese EV companies, LI stock could be a profitable long-term hold.
LI Fundamentals
Promising Deliveries
While other EV makers like Nio (NYSE: NIO) and XPENG (NYSE: XPEV) are seeing a decline in deliveries and are making production and delivery cuts, LI increased its deliveries in May to 28,277 vehicles, a 146% increase YoY. That would mean that LI is well on its way to achieving its 76,000–81,000 delivery target for Q2 since it delivered 25,681 vehicles in April, and if LI can replicate its May deliveries in June, it may even exceed its target.
May would be the third consecutive month for Li to deliver over 20,000 vehicles, which are mostly driven by the Li L7, which had more than 10,000 deliveries for the second consecutive month.
LI has delivered more than 106 thousand vehicles as of May 2023, which makes it the third-top Chinese EV maker in terms of deliveries in China, trailing behind BYD (OTC: BYDDF) and Aion (OTCPK: GNZUF).
Increasing Production Capacity
With the high demand LI is seeing for its vehicles, CEO, Xiang Li, announced that the company is planning to increase its production capacity from 7,500 vehicles a week to 10,000 vehicles a week by Q4 2023 through the addition of new equipment.
The increased production capacity may improve LI’s profitability since it could lead to an increase in sales. At the same time, scaling production could have a positive impact on LI’s profit margins which could see the company achieve its first full year of profitability. Given the stock’s average price target of $40.33, LI stock could reach a higher level if the company is profitable in 2023 – which could make the current PPS a bargain.
LI Financials
In its Q1 2023 report, LI’s assets increased 9% QoQ from ¥86 billion to ¥94 billion, and its cash and cash equivalents increased 14% QoQ from ¥38 billion to ¥43.6 billion. LI’s total liabilities increased by 14% QoQ from ¥41 billion to ¥47 billion.
Revenue also increased 100% YoY from ¥9 billion to ¥18 billion. Operating costs increased almost 36% from ¥2.5 billion to ¥3.4 billion, which contributed to the operating income increase of 198% YoY from ¥413 million in operating loss to ¥405 million in operating income. As a result, LI reported a net income of ¥933 million – a YoY increase from the ¥10.8 net loss it recorded last year.
Technical Analysis
LI stock’s trend is bullish with the stock trading in an upwards channel. Looking at the indicators, the stock is trading above the 200, and 50 MAs which are bullish indications, and is currently testing the 21 MA as a resistance. Meanwhile, the RSI is approaching overbought at 64 and the MACD is bearish.
As for the fundamentals, LI stock just witnessed two catalysts in the delivery update for May and its CEO announcing the production capacity increase that is planned for Q4 2023. If LI reached or exceeded its Q2 2023 delivery target, it could be a huge future catalyst for LI stock, since most other EV manufacturers are seeing declining sales. At the same time, if LI is able to report full year profitability thanks to the planned production increase, the stock could soar to greater heights.
LI Forecast
LI is currently one of the most exciting EV manufacturers in the Chinese market with the huge increase in its deliveries growth. Furthermore, while other EV manufacturers are making production and delivery cuts, LI is planning to increase its production capacity by 33% by Q4 2023. LI stock is currently one of the EV stocks to watch for since a lot of EV stocks are underperforming currently.
The AVWAP from the June 2022 highs now belong to the buyers!A good long setup here with earnings out of the way. The stock gapped up on heavy volume after a good earnings report. This gap up also happened to be above the AVWAP from the June highs.
Currently the stock is consolidating after the strong run up from the $21 area all the way towards the $30 area.
In my opinion, the $26 - $27 range provides a good buying opportunity in anticipation of a move towards the $40 level.
Li Auto becoming Tesla’s closest competitor in China Li Auto Inc. shares (symbol ‘LI’) managed to make a profit in the first quarter of around 14% in a pretty volatile environment. The company’s earnings report for the fiscal quarter ending March 2023 is set to be released on Wednesday 10th of May, before market open. The consensus EPS for the quarter is $0,01 compared to the same quarter last year of $0.
‘ The company has announced on May 1st that they have delivered more than 25,000 cars in April, the highest in history, and more than five times more than in 2022. This achievement allowed Li Auto to throw off rivals Xpeng Motors and NIO becoming the closest competitor to Tesla in China's high-end EV market.’ said Antreas Themistokleous at Exness.
From the technical analysis perspective the share has faced big volatility movements throughout all of the months in 2023 mostly because of the price wars that rage in China from EV competitors in an effort to get more market share.
The Bollinger bands are still quite expanded indicating that the volatility in the market is still strong while the 50 SMA is still holding above the 100 SMA validating the narrative of a bullish momentum still in play. Currently the price is trading at a strong technical support area on the daily chart which includes the 20 & 50 SMAs as well as the 23.6% of the weekly Fibonacci retracement level.
Watchlist 2023-03-01 #Li #FHN #MNST #AI #HLMN SPY - weakness continues, failing to approach yesterday's PD high and flushing past the PD low to finish off the trading day. Gapping up this morning back into supply. Bias is short.
Li, BABA, BIDU (Chinese DRs) - strong economic data out of China offsets downbeat earnings reports. Li specifically gapping over 200 EMA, over the high RVOL earnings day wide range red bar, and over the downtrend channel. Be cautious as ADRs with relative strength like BIDU are gapping into resistance.
FHN - doesn't expect it will receive regulatory OK in time to complete its $13.4 billion acquisition by May 27, which priced the shares at a cash buyout of 25 1 year ago from TD bank. Insane ATR move this morning, down 54 Atrs on 6M share vol. Seeing some strong buying at key levels in the PM. Long bias but will let the price action tell me. Important to note that shares are probably trading at value where they were 1 year ago before the acquisition. Also, not that the deal COULD still go through, just likely not by may. Key support 18.70, 19.46. key Resistance. 20.50, 21.30
MNST - Fourth-Quarter Results Miss Street Views on Foreign-Exchange Headwinds, Higher Costs. Down 2.5 ATR, under key 98.50 pivot. Room to 96,23 pivot at 200 EMA. Because the low vol I'd need to see a retracement and rejection higher for confirmation and to improve RR because considering a short
AI - forming a wedge on the daily. Would preferring to see one more daily of consolidation, with fakeout below 21.38 or a double top at 22.80 where prices has a more clear resistance to breakout from. Either of those scenarios I am interested in a long with target to 26 area.
Short Watches:
HLMN - Upsized Secondary Offering at $8 Per Share.
I focus on names trading elevate RVOL>2, trading past key ranges and pivots, preferably with news catalysts.
Yellow = Support
Purple = Resistance
Red = short opportunity
Green= long opportunity
LI | Loving This Play | EVLi Auto Inc., through its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells new energy vehicles in the People's Republic of China. The company provides Li ONE, a six-seat smart electric sport utility vehicle that is equipped with smart vehicle solutions, navigation on ADAS, and automatic emergency breaking functionalities. It also offers sales and after sales management, and technology development and corporate management services, as well as purchases manufacturing equipment. The company was formerly known as Leading Ideal Inc. and changed its name to Li Auto Inc. in July 2020. Li Auto Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Low Risk High Reward Swing Calls on $LINews prompted this stock to make a bullish reversal open today, as shown by the white arrow. The gray box highlights a bullish engulfing candle, and it is common for the initial demand to see a selloff that moves price lower. If price will rise again then there should be upside follow through in the next day or two.
RSI has a bullish divergence with price action and Stochastic %K shows some strength to lead %D upwards. I like that there are no gaps immediately below and you can see the recent high volume days on 13 Sep and today; the recent red candles have lower volume.
Li Auto at 61.8% fib? Li Auto
Short Term
We look to Buy at 26.22 (stop at 24.22)
Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 26.22 level. The medium term bias remains bullish. Downward pressure has continued and we are assessed as being in the corrective leg lower before the next rally. The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Our profit targets will be 31.17 and 44.10
Resistance: 32.00 / 36.90 / 40.00
Support: 26.20 / 22.22 / 18.90
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.