NVIDIADeepSeek's emergence as a potential challenger to US AI companies is expected to significantly impact the US tech market. With its breakthrough models offering performance comparable to leading offerings at a fraction of the cost, DeepSeek may "puncture some of the capex euphoria" surrounding major US tech companies like Meta and Microsoft
NVDA trade ideas
Why I Believe NVIDIA (NVDA) Is Oversold and Ready to BounceI’ve been following NVIDIA (NVDA) closely, and while I’m aware of the recent negative news, I believe the market’s reaction has been completely overblown. To me, this pullback has pushed NVDA into oversold territory—not because of technical indicators like RSI (which I’m not relying on), but because the price is now sitting at a strong demand level that historically has seen solid buying interest.
In my opinion, the market has overpriced the impact of the news. NVIDIA’s fundamentals remain strong, and I don’t see anything here that fundamentally changes the long-term story of the company. This feels more like a short-term overreaction that’s created an opportunity to get in at a discount.
DeepSeek: Is the $2 trillion panic justified? A small Chinese AI startup, DeepSeek, is responsible for erasing $2 trillion from the US equity market, within 12 hours.
Nvidia's stock is down ~17% at the time of writing, while shares of other US-based AI-related companies, including Oracle, Broadcom, and AMD, have fallen between 12% and 20%. Microsoft, a major investor in OpenAI, has also dropped more than 3%. However, Apple stock has gained, with the market seemingly dismissive of its Apple Intelligence product.
DeepSeek launched a free, open-source large language model in December, reportedly developed in just two months for under $6 million. This news and its implications are only just filtering into mainstream market consciousness now following the release of DeepSeek's chatbot app.
Investors are now questioning why US firms are spending hundreds of billions on Nvidia chips when a startup claims to achieve significant results at a fraction of the cost and raised concerns about the US losing its perceived dominance in the AI sector.
However, industry figures, including Elon Musk and Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang, are scrambling to change the narrative though. Some suggest that DeepSeek likely has access to 50,000 NVIDIA Hopper GPUs—despite their claims of using just 10,000 A100 GPUs—due to U.S. export restrictions.
NVIDIA Wave Analysis 27 January 2025
- NVIDIA broke support zone
- Likely to fall to support level 115.00
NVIDIA opened today with the sharp downward gap breaking the support zone located between the support level 126.65 (former monthly low from December) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from August.
The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active short-term impulse wave i, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from November.
NVIDIA can be expected to fall further to the next support level 115.00 (former monthly low from October).
Prediction Jan-Mid FebI've been totally wrong with dates, but my price points have been there the past month.
I don't use Fib., only EMA, MFI, CMF, MACD and chart analysis
Prediction: Something is going to happen news-wise around Jan (The time someone is coming into office...) which will correct Nvidia and SPY (SPY is due for a 5-10% correction, historically and for continuing bullish health.
What do you guys think?
i dont know guys!I don’t know, guys, but I think this stock is getting interesting. Just last Friday, the first fractal of the drop formed, and now we’ll see the continuation. All this activity is happening within a megaphone pattern, which makes me think NVDA’s price will surpass its all-time high. The optimization of LLM models doesn’t affect anything negatively—it only helps them become more popular and drives more chip sales.
We’re on the brink of launching the Stargate project, and let’s not overlook the fact that both the hardware and software used for AI are evolving. Nothing is set in stone, which is why sales will continue to be monumental. A clear example is that if these models become optimized enough, we could see the massive use of new, more compact chips for household and personal appliances, robots, etc. So don’t be afraid—join the revolution!
NVIDIA: Crashed on the 1D MA200 after 2 years. Last stand.NVIDIA is approaching oversold valuations on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 35.351, MACD = -0.820, ADX = 27.301) following the DeepSeek news and breached its 1D MA200 for the first time in 2 years. It was January 13th 2023 when we last saw the price trading on this trendline. The 1W MA50 is just a click under and there is no other way to put it than this being NVDA's last hold. The stock is at -23% from its ATH and the pattern that has to hold in order to provide an immediate rebound is the Megaphone whose LL trendline we just hit today. As long as this holds and the 1D RSI starts reversing near the oversold level, NVIDIA should technically test the 153.00 Resistance in a month or so. Failure to hold this pattern and a weekly candle closing under the 1W MA50, may result in a bubble burst and test of the 101.50 and 91.50 support levels.
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Where to catch the falling knife?So it's dropped a fair bit since I started writing this post, but needless to say, it would be best to wait and see something technical before a reasonable buy on a pull back could be justified. Looking at the weekly time frame, I'd expect a bounce from about the 115 level, so any bounce could then be judged on its own merits, if it's technical and showing signs of resuming back to the upside, then better to buy on a pull back from there (similar to the GBP chart), in what would be a lower time frame wave 2, than when it could just as easily keep dropping.
Disengage from the herd, Markets are not Rational places!“The prevailing wisdom is that markets are always right. I take the opposition position. I assume that markets are always wrong. Even if my assumption is occasionally wrong, I use it as a working hypothesis. It does not follow that one should always go against the prevailing trend. On the contrary, most of the time the trend prevails; only occasionally are the errors corrected. It is only on those occasions that one should go against the trend. This line of reasoning leads me to look for the flaw in every investment thesis. ... I am ahead of the curve. I watch out for telltale signs that a trend may be exhausted. Then I disengage from the herd and look for a different investment thesis. Or, if I think the trend has been carried to excess, I may probe going against it. Most of the time we are punished if we go against the trend. Only at an inflection point are we rewarded.”
― George Soros, Soros on Soros: Staying Ahead of the Curve
Most people ask themselves why NVDA should lose 15% of its market cap on the news about a Chinese company that claims to have outperformed ChatGPT by spending 5.5 million USD on training their models.
I do not care about if the claim is true or not, because I am confident ChatGPT was very hyped, and today the bubble burst.
No matter how much everyone in the AI industry and GPU makers trying we will not gain back the trust of people who see their capital melting in front of their eyes!
NVDA - Sellside Liquidity Run to Long ITM Calls >7 Days outI'm already long NVDA in a net profitable hedged position. I went long at 129 and overhedged at 151. The CES event stank of buy the rumor, sell the news. The chart structure also supported a clear buyside liquidity run to that level.
The double wicks at the top of the range indicate an intent to run through buyside again. Before the CES run, a gaping block shaped void near ATH was clearly visible. This was a bearish selling block that has since been filled. That seller had to be bought out before NVDA could continue its run.
There has been evident presence of sellside liquidity at ~129 since the beginning of the run. Initially I believed that would get run out before the buyside run, but I was wrong. Given the state of the VIX, TSLA, Silver, and Long term bond yields, a volatility spike capable of driving any weak hands (i.e. unhedged) out of NVDA feels imminent. I made a few mistakes on this run and my current NVDA position, though profitable and riskless is still at risk of being called away (at a profit).
None the less, I intend to add onto my position if a volatility spike and liquidity run does occur and fix my risk using shorter dated ITM calls. A volatility expansion of this magnitude has the ability to run out even very conservatively placed stops, so ITM calls are the best bet I have to enter into a risk managed position.
A large scale volatility bid will very quickly get sold by volatility sellers and traders (like myself) who mop up the blood in the streets. My short volatility positions are already hidden liquidity on the books.