$NVDA — H200 suppliers have paused production due to Chinese cusNASDAQ:NVDA — added to my short yesterday in after-hours on the news that H200 suppliers have paused production due to Chinese customs blocking shipments.
Worth noting: in December, NVDA rallied ~$20 on similar headlines. That kind of reaction late in a trend often signals exhaustion, not strength.
Technically, a shoulder–head–shoulders structure is developing. These patterns break lower about 60% of the time over a full cycle.
Late in strong trends, each new high increases the odds of reversal as profit-taking pressure builds. For now, the risk–reward still favors downside, in my view.
While my longer-term view still targets a move back to double digits, I’ll trade in and out on shorter-term short setups to improve probabilities and reduce the risk of giving back open profits.
