MSTR - pattern and downtrend breakoutMSTR - Stock held $320 support level multiple times and now breaking out of triangle pattern. Calls looking good as long as $335 holds for a move towards $350 and higher. Stock is decent at the indicator level. rate cut tomorrow could push the bitcoin and the stock higher.
STRC trade ideas
a megaphone over 500A good signal right on time was Powell saying he would change his monetary policy (he said he would adjust it). Then Bitcoin and all the equities hurt by the recent drops resumed the solid uptrend we’ve been seeing. They came back to consolidate technical levels and give us new highs. In the case of MSTR, we can see the formation of a megaphone pattern that could take us above 500 USD.
$MSTR Must Close This Week Above the 50WMA Or Else...The MicroStrategy chart is the only top signal that is somewhat cause for concern at the current moment.
You can see NASDAQ:MSTR has closed the past several weeks below the 50WMA, which signaled the start of the bear market last cycle.
Having said that, it has had a bullish rally this week and is trading above the 50WMA once again.
MSTR must close the week above this level, otherwise the stock could be in for a much deeper correction, which could negatively affect CRYPTOCAP:BTC in October.
Where have you heard that October prediction before?
Coincidence? 🥸
MicroStrategy (MSTR) Technical Analysis – September 2025 Technical Outlook:
• The stock is currently trading around $344 after a solid bounce from a key demand zone at $300 – $320.
• The MACD indicator shows a recent bullish crossover, with green histogram bars starting to form → signaling a potential continuation of upward momentum.
• On the daily chart, the first resistance zone is at $400 – $405, followed by an extended target at $440.
Trade Setup (Swing Idea):
• Entry Zone: $340 – $345.
• Stop Loss: Below $290 (a breakdown would invalidate the bullish setup).
• Targets:
• TP1: $400 (partial take-profit).
• TP2: $405.
• TP3: $440.
The Risk/Reward ratio (RRR) is attractive here (above 2:1).
Analysts’ View:
• Most analysts rate MSTR as Strong Buy / Buy.
• The 12-month price targets range between $530 – $600, with some optimistic projections going as high as $700.
• Key risk: MSTR’s performance is highly correlated with Bitcoin (BTC). Any strong BTC retracement could weigh heavily on the stock.
Conclusion:
MicroStrategy shows bullish technical signals after rebounding from strong support, supported by momentum indicators and positive analyst outlook.
Still, strict risk management is crucial, given the stock’s volatility and its dependence on Bitcoin’s price movements.
MicroStrategy's Chart Patterns Indicate Strong Bullish Breakout Current Price: $331.44
Direction: LONG
Targets:
- T1 = $350.00
- T2 = $375.00
Stop Levels:
- S1 = $315.00
- S2 = $300.00
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in MicroStrategy.
**Key Insights:**
MicroStrategy has recently captured significant momentum, driven by its strategic focus on Bitcoin holdings and continued operational scaling. The company, actively engaging with cryptocurrency investments, benefits from both asset appreciation and its pioneering role in enterprise adoption of digital assets. Traders are paying close attention to MicroStrategy’s direct correlation to Bitcoin’s price movements, which provide it with additional volatility and speculative trading potential.
From a technical perspective, the stock is poised just below a key resistance zone near $335. A confirmed breakout above this level could catalyze further buying interest, aligning with strong upward momentum displayed in recent trading sessions. MicroStrategy’s alignment with the cryptocurrency sector makes it a preferred equity among institutional and speculative investors, providing liquidity and exciting price action.
**Recent Performance:**
Over the past month, MicroStrategy has steadily climbed from a low of around $280 to its current level, gaining upward momentum alongside a resurgent Bitcoin market. Volumes have been steadily increasing, indicating growing investor interest. The stock remains volatile, offering attractive opportunities for traders seeking to capitalize on breakout trades.
**Expert Analysis:**
Market strategists view MicroStrategy as a proxy for Bitcoin, with its valuation tying broadly to Bitcoin’s performance due to the company’s aggressive accumulation strategy. Over the medium term, analysts believe the stock could deliver significant gains as long as macroeconomic conditions continue to stabilize and Bitcoin sustains upward trends. On the charts, MicroStrategy has formed a classic ascending triangle pattern, a bullish technical structure suggesting the potential for a breakout. RSI (Relative Strength Index) is approaching but not yet breaching overbought levels, indicating there may be further room for upside growth.
**News Impact:**
Recent bullish sentiment in the cryptocurrency space, particularly with expectations of potential regulatory advancements and broader institutional adoption of Bitcoin, has added tailwinds to MicroStrategy. The company’s reputation as a corporate Bitcoin whale has cemented its position as a major beneficiary of positive news cycles affecting digital assets. Should Bitcoin continue its upward trend, MicroStrategy is likely to see corresponding gains.
**Trading Recommendation:**
Based on the confluence of technical, fundamental, and macroeconomic factors, MicroStrategy presents a strong LONG opportunity at its current price. Traders should monitor key resistance at $335 closely, as a confirmed breakout past this level could accelerate the stock toward the initial target of $350, with $375 being the next logical extension. The stop-loss levels at $315 and $300 ensure risk is managed appropriately in the event of sharp reversals. This trade is suitable for traders comfortable with volatility and those looking to gain indirect exposure to Bitcoin through equities.
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$MSTR Falling Below the 50WMA in 2021 Bull Market Here's a look at last cycle where NASDAQ:MSTR trading under the 50WMA for several weeks led to the CRYPTOCAP:BTC bear market.
The reason why this was so significant last cycle is because they were responsible for such a large share of BTC buy pressure.
This cycle we have lots of other treasury companies, with many more to come, as well as ETFs of course, so I'm not as concerned with this PA.
Is $MSTR only game in town? Charts seem to disagree. NASDAQ:MSTR was the first CRYPTOCAP:BTC treasury company in Wall Street. It provided the leverage required on the price by CRYPTOCAP:BTC by borrowing against its balance sheet and buying $BTC. This has worked well for Strategy as it was the only game in the town. But not anymore. With new Crypto treasury company coming to the public every single day and CRYPTOCAP:BTC treasury companies in abundance the attractiveness of NASDAQ:MSTR is decreasing.
In the chart below we check NASDAQ:MSTR stock price vs BITSTAMP:BTCUSD and see that it peaked in Nov 2024. Since then, it is a series of lower highs and lower lows. The downward sloping channel also makes things complicated for the stock in the mid-term. Just on the weekly there is some support in the chart between 0.0026 and 0.0021. This also happens to be between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fib retracement levels.
My assessment is we can see some support at 0.618 Fib levels but make no mistake if Crypto bear market comes in 2026 – 2027 then the ratio chart can visit the all-time lows of 0.0007.
Verdict: NASDAQ:MSTR / $ BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is in clear downturn. It can find support at 0.618 Fib retracement level. Ratio can visit the cycle lows of 0.0007.
$MSTR trade to the upside? $375-395?NASDAQ:MSTR looks to be turning bullish here on small timeframes. We've broken out of the down trend line and look to be turning up for a move towards the resistances above.
I think we can potentially make it all the way up to $395 on this move to retest the area it broke down from.
However, that $375 area is also an area that can provide strong resistance.
Let's see how it plays out.
$MSTR Micro Strategy 🎯 Technical Setup:
Daily demand zone at ~$302-320 providing STRONG support
Break of structure (BOS) confirmed with rejection from demand
Perfect 1-2 Elliott Wave setup developing after correction
Target: 50% retracement minimum = $365+ (15%+ gain from current levels)
🚀 MicroStrategy BITCOIN BEAST:
Bitcoin Treasury King: 444,262 BTC worth $49+ billion in reserves
Saylor's Vision: World's largest corporate Bitcoin holder
Infinite Money Glitch: Issue convertible debt → Buy Bitcoin → Stock rises → Repeat
2.5x Bitcoin Leverage: MSTR moves 2.5x whatever Bitcoin does
💰 The Ultimate Bitcoin Play:
Pure Bitcoin Exposure: No mining costs, just pure BTC appreciation
Corporate Treasury Revolution: Leading the Bitcoin-as-reserve-asset movement
Institutional Gateway: Wall Street's favorite way to get Bitcoin exposure
Convertible Debt Machine: $42 billion raised to buy more Bitcoin
🎪 Why This Could Be EXPLOSIVE:
Demand Zone Bounce: $302-320 institutional accumulation zone holding
Bitcoin Catalyst: Any BTC move above $115K triggers MSTR mania
Wave 3 Setup: Most powerful Elliott Wave about to begin
Saylor Effect: Michael Saylor's Bitcoin evangelism driving adoption
Entry Strategy:
Current: $326 (bouncing perfectly off daily demand)
Confirmation: Above $340 with volume surge
Stop: Below $300 (demand zone violation)
Target 1: $365 (50% Fibonacci level)
Target 2: $450+ (if Bitcoin breaks $120K)
MSTR = Bitcoin on steroids at perfect technical entry! 🚀
MSTR Long Setup at $320 Support — Targets Up to $455MicroStrategy NASDAQ:MSTR is trading at a critical support zone between $320 – $325. This area has historically attracted buyers, and with price consolidating at the lows, we’re eyeing a potential spot long entry if support holds.
📌 Trade Setup:
• Entry Zone: $320 – $325
• Take Profit Targets:
🥇 $360 – $390
🥈 $420 – $455
• Stop Loss: Just below $315
#MSTR #MicroStrategy #Stocks #TradingSetup #TechnicalAnalysis
#SupportZone #StockWatchlist #PriceAction
#SwingTrade #LongSetup #MarketAnalysis
$MSTR undervalued in terms of $IBITThis is a ratio of NASDAQ:MSTR / NASDAQ:IBIT and the idea here is that NASDAQ:MSTR MicroStrategy is growing undervalued in terms of Bitcoin / NASDAQ:IBIT , and the ratio is about to take out an important low.
This seems like an ideal time to consider a buy on NASDAQ:MSTR if you believe the Bitcoin bull market is not yet over, as it has been in a trend of underperformance, and could quickly shift back to outperformance if the Bitcoin bull market gets back underway.
How you choose to trade this could take many forms, I mostly just wanted to raise awareness of the setup.
BTC - MTSRHello.
Bitcoin is in distribution phase ?
MIcrostrategy show a potential for the end of this cycle.
Weekly Ma50 is break now. We need a clear break out of the red line now.
It's over or is a flase break down ? We will see. A last massive surge for btc is possible.
But stock already show the end of the bullrun.
It's a trap ? The ma50 weekly is our key.
MSTR 1D Time frameMarket Snapshot
Current Price: ~$328.50
Daily Change: -0.4% (approx)
Technical Overview
Indicators & Momentum
RSI (14-day): ~40 → Neutral, slightly below the midpoint—no major squeeze yet.
MACD: Negative (~–1.6) → Weak bearish momentum.
Stochastic Oscillator: Around 31 → Neutral to slightly oversold.
Stochastic RSI: Overbought zone → Possible short-term exhaustion.
Williams %R: ~–39 → Suggests room for both upside and downside.
ADX: ~18–26 → Indicates a weak to moderate trend—market lacks strong direction.
Moving Averages
Short-term moving averages (like 5-day and 10-day) show buy signals, while broader averages—including the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day—are all negative, suggesting broader downward pressure.
Support & Resistance
Based on various pivot point analyses:
Immediate Support: ~$324–325
Near-term Support Zone: ~$320
Immediate Resistance: ~$332–334
Further Resistance: ~$340–345
Broader Technical & Market Context
Downtrend in Play: The stock has declined nearly 40% from its July highs and is approaching its lowest levels since April.
Death Cross Forming: The 50-day moving average is nearing a bearish crossover below the 200-day average.
Diving Technical Ratings: Most moving averages and oscillators point to a negative bias—short-term signals are weak, and longs are retreating.
Bullish Divergence? Some chart setups hint at a potential wedge or triangle pattern with possible bullish divergence, but these are speculative and not yet confirmed.
MicroStrategy remains under pressure, with indicators pointing overwhelmingly to neutral or bearish signals. While short-term moving averages show minor support, the broader technical picture remains weak—and a breakout above ~$334 would be needed to suggest a reversal.
Do or Die - Q4 EditionNot stirring controversy with this take.
Higher in Q4 followed by a year-long bear market.
Using Fibonacci extensions from last cycle's top & bottom to hit a maximum of a 1.618 target by EOY.
Open to the possibility of price targets from most recent ATH ($550) and up to the 1.618 fib level.
This calls for aggressive appreciation within the next 3.5 months.
Price targets will be invalidated by immediate downward move or sideways chop, with the latter scenario resulting in a lower price target.
Stated differently, price needs significant upward volatility by the end of September/early October this forecast will not play out
Either scenario, this is nearly the end before the an imminent correction lasting a year or more.
I predict the next bear market for MSTR will be aggressive, with BTC price likely to fall beneath the Strategy's bitcoin dollar-cost-average of $73k as of 9/8/25.
Breaking: MicroStrategy’s Price Action Signals Key Recovery AheaCurrent Price: $344.75
Direction: LONG
Targets:
- T1 = $364.50
- T2 = $385.00
Stop Levels:
- S1 = $332.00
- S2 = $318.50
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that the aggregated market perspectives on MicroStrategy highlight a clear path for potential upside, supported by informed consensus and reduced cognitive bias.
**Key Insights:**
MicroStrategy’s strategic alignment with Bitcoin continues to attract investor attention as the cryptocurrency market shows signs of stabilization in 2025. The firm holds the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury globally—a position that amplifies its sensitivity to BTC price movements but also provides outsized returns during bullish periods. The company’s ongoing emphasis on expanding its business intelligence solutions aligns with broader enterprise adoption trends, delivering incremental revenue streams beyond Bitcoin’s ecosystem.
From a technical perspective, the recent consolidation near $340 has built a strong base of support with increasing trade volume, suggesting positive accumulation by institutional investors. MicroStrategy’s price is approaching its 50-day moving average, which signals momentum improving and reflects a reversal pattern that could pave the way for sustained bullish advances.
**Recent Performance:**
Over the last quarter, MicroStrategy has demonstrated resilience, maintaining stability near critical support levels even amidst fluctuations in Bitcoin prices. Year-to-date, the stock has gained approximately 35%, outperforming broader technology and analytics peers. Recent sessions highlight gradual upward movement, with the price moving within a defined range between $330 and $350, subtly hinting at a breakout scenario. Today’s closing price of $344.75 represents a 2% gain from last week’s low of $338.
**Expert Analysis:**
Technical analysts emphasize that MicroStrategy’s long-term price trajectory remains highly correlated with Bitcoin’s price cycle. However, experts predict a favorable near-term outlook given Bitcoin’s recent upward trajectory towards $27,000 in September 2025. Fundamentally, appreciation in MicroStrategy stock reflects confidence among shareholders in the company’s unique Bitcoin-first treasury philosophy, alongside improved earnings guidance driven by its core analytics platform.
On the technical front, analysts point to the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rising above 50, signaling bullish momentum. Additionally, the stock is forming higher lows on the daily chart—a sign of buyers stepping in at stronger levels, further validating entry into LONG positions.
**News Impact:**
Recent headlines reveal that MicroStrategy has increased its Bitcoin holdings, purchasing an additional $147 million worth during Q3 2025. This aggressive acquisition could reinforce its position as a leader in corporate cryptocurrency adoption. Positive sentiment stemming from this announcement aligns with growing global acceptance of Bitcoin as institutional liquidity strengthens. Moreover, MicroStrategy’s leadership team has reiterated optimism for business intelligence growth, which could cushion short-term operational risks independent of cryptocurrency volatility.
**Trading Recommendation:**
Given MicroStrategy’s strong correlation with Bitcoin, its demonstrated resilience, and promising technical signals, traders should consider a LONG position at the current price of $344.75. The operational diversification strategy and Bitcoin’s steady recovery create bullish tailwinds that provide clear upside targets. Set stops at $332.00 and $318.50 to protect against adverse price movements, while targeting $364.50 and $385.00 for potential gains in the medium term.
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down trend looks to rejoin 300 as the trend continuesUnless we see a significant breakaway from the descending triangle, it could widen and turn to symmetrical which aligns in with the ascending line set to rejoin its pattern. That could be a major shift if it bounces off resistance on the current pattern first.
MSTR ShortThe broader market structure on MSTR is currently bearish, with price making lower highs and lower lows overall. The most recent Break of Structure (BOS) occurred around $337.71, confirming bearish continuation after price failed to sustain higher levels. This BOS suggests that sellers remain in control and a retest of lower demand zones is probable.
Looking at supply and demand, the nearest supply zone sits in the $335–338 range, from which price previously dropped sharply, showing strong selling pressure. Demand sits between $328–324, where buyers last stepped in with enough strength to produce a significant rally. The reaction at demand was solid but not impulsive enough to break through supply on the first attempt, suggesting the zone could weaken on another test.
Currently, price is approaching the supply zone and showing signs of exhaustion as it nears the 0.5 retracement level at $328.42. If price taps into this supply zone and rejects, we can expect a move back toward the mid-range demand zone around $328–324. The trade bias is bearish, with an expectation of a sell-off after supply is hit. A close above $338 would invalidate this bearish outlook and signal possible continuation to higher supply zones.
Momentum currently favors sellers, as the move into supply has been sharp but is beginning to slow, suggesting distribution. No strong bullish engulfing candles are present here, further supporting a likely rejection.
MSTR — Triangle Setup Before Crypto SeasonMSTR is sitting on the third touch of its weekly triangle support, a spot that often sparks momentum shifts. On the daily, price is moving within a wedge-like structure while showing bullish divergence on both the daily and 4H charts, signaling buyers may be stepping in. With trendlines holding and crypto seasonality approaching — typically a strong period for Bitcoin-related assets — this setup looks primed for a potential move back toward the top of the triangle, with any break and retest opening room for expansion.
Not financial advice, just how I see it.