MicroStrategy - Mean ReversionAfter a choppy but still successful call on MSTR in Feb, we are back with another one. Heavily oversold and ready to shoot alongside $BTC.
Trade ideas
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MSTR pull back a buying opportunityMSTR checking key supports.
Respects the trend started 2 years ago, revisiting a historical RSI low, only seen back in June 2022.
MSTR TRADES UP 1X FOR EVERY BTC UP, BUT 3-4X DOWN WITH BTCMSTR is dead. the "Leverage"is 3-4x down for btc movement, but only 1x up for btc movement
the degradation of how far below each btc ath is also getting worse, it has doubled since the last btc ath.
$MSTR Bullish Shark Harmonic completedNASDAQ:MSTR : C wave of this ABC correction has gone beyond A, meeting the requirements of an ABC flat correction. Bullish Shark Harmonic also looks complete.
Strategy's Premium is Gone. Time to Load? 4 months ago, I posted that NASDAQ:MSTR premium was unsustainable and the stock price would drop.
Since then, the price dropped by 50%!!
Now, Strategy's is close to zero, and I flip my views on it.
If you like this kind of trade, it might be a good time to start DCA'ing it.
Note that Strategy continues to be a highly volatile stock, more volatile than Bitcoin itself.
Finally, the stock is now at a technical resistance level.
You can keep an eye on the premium/discount of this stock by looking at my 2 indicators:
Market to NAV Premium Arbitrage Alpha Indicator , and
Asset Premium/Discount Monitor
$MSTR: AB = CD target almost reachedNASDAQ:MSTR : the AB = CD targets $233 and today's low is $236.86. Very close. If NASDAQ:MSTR can bounce here, or fake breakdown to 233 or lower than bounce back, it would be good for Bitcoin. I don't own NASDAQ:MSTR shares and don't plan to trade this name. I'm looking at NASDAQ:MSTR as another data point to gauge bitcoin.
History Seems to Be Repeating on MSTR
Lately, I’ve been noticing something interesting on MicroStrategy (MSTR) — the price action appears to be forming a structure very similar to what we saw earlier in the chart.
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🟨 Repeating Consolidation Zones
Looking back, the first highlighted zone (around early 2024) shows how price moved sideways for a while after a strong rally. That consolidation eventually resolved in a sharp move upward once momentum returned.
Now, if we look at the current structure (mid-to-late 2024 into 2025), the setup looks quite familiar. After another strong upward phase, price has again been consolidating in a broad range roughly between $250 and $450.
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🧩 Observing the Fractal Behavior
This kind of repeated structure—where a period of consolidation follows a strong expansion—often suggests that market participants are adjusting to previous volatility and finding equilibrium before the next major phase.
While past movements don’t predict future outcomes, it’s interesting to note how similar the rhythm of this current range is compared to the previous one. It almost feels like the market is “echoing” its earlier behavior.
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🔍 Key Points I’m Watching
• The lower area of this range (around $230–$250) has acted as an important zone of interest before.
• The upper boundary near $425–$450 has repeatedly capped upward movement.
• How price behaves between these levels may give insight into the broader structure of the trend.
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🕰️ Final Thoughts
This analysis isn’t a prediction or a recommendation — just an observation of how patterns sometimes reappear in the market.
Whether or not this current range resolves in a similar way to the last one remains to be seen, but the repetition in structure and timing is fascinating from a technical perspective.
Markets often rhyme, and MSTR might just be showing another verse of a familiar song. 🎵
MSTR further downside but looking exhaustedNASDAQ:MSTR Price continues range bound in a complex wave 4 correction, notoriously hard to analyse. The trend is down but looks exhausted.
Wave Y can complete any time in this flat correction pattern but is approaching the previous swing low and the 0.236 Fibonnacci retracement.
Daily RSI has printed bullish divergence but price continues lower. IF pice breaks down further the next target is $185 where price may find a bottom.
Recovering the daily 200EMA is the first goal.
MicroStrategyBitcoin.
Still lots of downside left on the table for Saylor's MicroStrategy.
More time required before any type of lower risk entry point morphs into existence.
Will Microstrategy $MSTR follow the 2021 cycle?
Top was around the most greedy time in the market per Election '24. As bitcoin put in new all time highs MSTR continued lower highs, just like in '21. Last line of support around $230, it should continue putting in lower highs as the cycle comes to an end.
MSTR - How to profit from a $140 short target🔱 The MS ponzi is taking its toll. 🔱
I’m not laughing, because it’s genuinely unfortunate for everyone who believed in this scam.
But today, I don’t want to rant about that.
I want to show how one could profit from a potential drop of more than $100.
As an Andrews Pitchfork trader, I know there’s roughly an 80% chance that price will reach the centerline. From there, price either reverses in the opposite direction or breaks through the centerline to continue its journey.
That’s exactly what happened with MSTR.
You can see how the price first reached the centerline, held there a few times, and then broke it. Since then, it’s been following the rulebook by moving further to the downside.
Now, there’s another rule worth remembering:
price often tests or retests the line it just broke.
In our case, that line is the centerline.
This means we could be lucky enough to get a pullback to the centerline, and that would be a good level to consider shorting.
The target is usually the opposite line of the centerline, which in our case is the L-MLH (Lower Median Line Parallel).
👉 If you want to learn the full framework and its rules, check the links for free material.
I hope this helps many of you, and I wish you all good profits.
$MSTR still bullish at supportstrategy has lately been underperforming compared with simular assets. It's stuck in this arc and the diagonal line. When it finds support and breaks the arc you will teleport to the next arc. This gets invalidated when breaking to the downside!
MSTR is on a point of significant confluenceMSTR is on a point of three major confluences. To lose this level would mean we are going much lower. However, I expect at least a significant bounce from here.
we have the blue channel that previously acted as resistance and recently turned into support.
we have the current orange channel
we have the -.272 fib level, after hitting the -1.618 Nov 2024
RSI also looks like a bottoming pattern, but that needs to play out some more to be confident.
I would not be surprised if we retest the underside of the -.618 around $315 in short order. If we lose this level, it could get really nasty to the downside.
Strategy Inc (MSTR) – High-Beta Bitcoin Proxy at Key SupportStrategy Inc NASDAQ:MSTR has delivered another strong quarterly report, underscoring its continued commitment to aggressive Bitcoin accumulation. With over 158,000 BTC on the books, MSTR has firmly positioned itself as a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin, offering equity traders indirect crypto exposure. This bold balance sheet strategy has also pushed MSTR into alignment with S&P 500 inclusion criteria — a potential catalyst if index inclusion materializes.
Technically, the stock is now retesting a key support zone between $228 and $233. This level has historically held well and may offer a high-conviction entry for those anticipating a BTC rebound. Should Bitcoin aim for new highs, MSTR could respond with outsized upside, though traders must account for the volatility and downside risks that come with crypto-correlated equities.
🎯 Trade Setup:
Entry Zone: $228 – $233
Take Profit Targets: $360 and $535
Stop Loss: $198
This setup offers a high-risk, high-reward opportunity. As always, manage position size carefully and watch BTC price action for confirmation.
S&P 500 Inclusion QuantSignals V3 Screener 2025-11-01S&P 500 Inclusion QuantSignals V3 Screener 2025-11-01
🎯 S&P 500 Inclusion QuantSignals V3 Screener - 2025-11-01
Elite AI-powered S&P 500 inclusion candidate scanner
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📊 S&P 500 Inclusion Criteria
• Market Cap: $14B+ (current threshold)
• Profitability: 4+ consecutive profitable quarters
• Public Float: 50%+ of shares publicly traded
• Liquidity: Adequate trading volume
• Sector Balance: Committee considers sector weights
🔥 Top Inclusion Candidates
📈 NYSE:BRK.B - Inclusion Score: 53/100
Confidence: 60.0% | Risk: Medium
Market Cap: $47.8B | Profitable Qtrs: 4 | Float: 65%
Days to Rebalance: 60 | Price: $477.54
Key Factors:
• 💰 Well Above Threshold ($47.8B, +15.0 pts)
• ✅ Meets Profitability (4Q, +7.0 pts)
• 🌐 Good Public Float (65%, +6.0 pts)
• 💧 Good Liquidity (1.5M vol, +3.0 pts)
• 📊 Sector Balanced (+0.0%, +2.0 pts)
📈 NYSE:TSM - Inclusion Score: 47/100
Confidence: 60.0% | Risk: Medium
Market Cap: $30.0B | Profitable Qtrs: 4 | Float: 65%
Days to Rebalance: 60 | Price: $300.43
Key Factors:
• 💰 Well Above Threshold ($30.0B, +15.0 pts)
• ✅ Meets Profitability (4Q, +7.0 pts)
• 🌐 Good Public Float (65%, +6.0 pts)
• 💧 Good Liquidity (1.5M vol, +3.0 pts)
• 📊 Sector Balanced (+0.0%, +2.0 pts)
📈 NYSE:SPOT - Inclusion Score: 44/100
Confidence: 45.0% | Risk: Medium
Market Cap: $65.5B | Profitable Qtrs: 4 | Float: 65%
Days to Rebalance: 60 | Price: $655.32
Key Factors:
• 💰 Well Above Threshold ($65.5B, +15.0 pts)
• ✅ Meets Profitability (4Q, +7.0 pts)
• 🌐 Good Public Float (65%, +6.0 pts)
• 💧 Good Liquidity (1.5M vol, +3.0 pts)
• 📊 Sector Balanced (+0.0%, +2.0 pts)
📈 NYSE:BABA - Inclusion Score: 40/100
Confidence: 45.0% | Risk: Medium
Market Cap: $17.0B | Profitable Qtrs: 4 | Float: 65%
Days to Rebalance: 60 | Price: $170.43
Key Factors:
• 💵 Meets Threshold ($17.0B, +8.0 pts)
• ✅ Meets Profitability
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(4Q, +7.0 pts)
• 🌐 Good Public Float (65%, +6.0 pts)
• 💧 Good Liquidity (1.5M vol, +3.0 pts)
• 📊 Sector Balanced (+0.0%, +2.0 pts)
Conflicts:
• ⚠️ High volatility (53%)
📈 NASDAQ:MSTR - Inclusion Score: 30/100
Confidence: 45.0% | Risk: Medium
Market Cap: $27.0B | Profitable Qtrs: 4 | Float: 65%
Days to Rebalance: 60 | Price: $269.51
Key Factors:
• 💰 Strong Market Cap ($27.0B, +12.0 pts)
• ✅ Meets Profitability (4Q, +7.0 pts)
• 🌐 Good Public Float (65%, +6.0 pts)
• 💧 Good Liquidity (1.5M vol, +3.0 pts)
• 📊 Sector Balanced (+0.0%, +2.0 pts)
Conflicts:
• ⚠️ Weak price action (-30.8%)
• ⚠️ High volatility (56%)
• ⚠️ CONFLICT: Recent price collapse (-25.1%, -10 pts)
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💡 S&P 500 Inclusion Impact
• Passive Inflows: $12-15T tracks S&P 500, forces systematic buying
• Average Pop: 5-8% on announcement day
• Sustained Premium: Inclusion often creates lasting demand
• Index Rebalancing: Quarterly reviews create windows of opportunity
⚠️ Risk Management
• Inclusion is not guaranteed - these are probabilistic candidates
• Committee decisions can be unpredictable
• Use proper position sizing (max 2-5% per position)
• Set stop losses 10-15% below entry
💡 Remember: Buy the rumor, sell the news. Consider taking profits post-announcement.
MSTR clear trendline well behaved chartA long-term descending trendline (yellow dashed line) acting as dynamic resistance since July highs.
Major horizontal support around 265 USD (recent low and yellow dotted line).
Resistance levels near 325 USD and 395–400 USD.
Overall pattern: extended downtrend with lower highs and lower lows, but price nearing a strong confluence zone (trendline + horizontal support).
This setup suggests MSTR is in a make-or-break area — either a short-term reversal bounce or continuation to new lows.
📈 Bullish Scenario
Setup:
Price has reached oversold levels near 265, aligning with historical support. A technical bounce is possible if Bitcoin stabilizes or rallies, given MSTR’s correlation.
Confirmation Triggers:
Close above 280–285 USD (short-term confirmation).
Break and close above descending trendline (~295–300).
Short-Term Targets:
325 USD — former support turned resistance.
395–400 USD — key horizontal level and top of prior range.
Bullish Catalysts:
Bitcoin recovery or strength toward $70K+.
Institutional or ETF-related flows benefiting BTC proxies.
Technical short-covering rally.
Invalidation:
Daily close below 260 USD with strong volume.
Probability: Moderate (~40%), as reversal setups often require confirmation after long downtrends.
📉 Bearish Scenario
Setup:
Price continues to respect descending resistance and fails to reclaim 285–295 zone, maintaining downward momentum.
Confirmation Triggers:
Breakdown below 265 USD support.
Expansion in sell volume below that level.
Short-Term Targets:
250–255 USD → minor horizontal level (recent pivot area).
230–235 USD → next structural support.
210–215 USD → measured move from current descending channel.
Bearish Catalysts:
Bitcoin correction below $65K.
Continued macro tightening or risk-off environment.
Market rejection of BTC-linked equities.
Invalidation:
Breakout above 300 USD with sustained buying pressure.
Probability: Slightly higher (~60%) as trend remains clearly bearish.
⚖️ Neutral / Accumulation View
If MSTR remains range-bound between 265 and 300, this indicates accumulation before next major move.
Expect choppy price action with short squeezes and weak rallies until a breakout direction emerges.
🧩 Summary Table
Bias Confirmation Target Zone Invalidation Notes
Bullish Close > 300 325 → 395 <260 Trendline breakout
Bearish Close < 265 250 → 230 >300 Trend continuation
Neutral Range 265–300 — — Sideways accumulation
🕒 2–3 Week Projection
Bullish path: Bounce from 265 → breakout above 300 → target 325–330 by mid-November.
Bearish path: Fail at 285–295 → breakdown below 265 → slide to 235 by mid/late November.
Trade Alert: $MSTR NOV 28 2025 $270 CALLS – +118% Profit TargetEnter: NASDAQ:MSTR Calls
Strike Price: $270
Expiry Date: NOV 28 2025
Buy in Price: $17.53 - $18.95
Sell Price: $38.22
Profit : +118% (Turn every $1 into $2.18)
Want Profitable Real-Time Options Alerts?
MSTR weekly bull divergence on low sentimentSentiment is low, the asset is hated and misunderstood by TradFi and retail. It’s a recipe for a bottom!
Price is still in a wave (IV) which are expected to be long and drawn out, driving investors into shallow capitulation through boredom into patient hands. I don’t expect wave (V) to kick in until Bitcoin moves. Wave (V) has an expected target of the R3 daily pivot at $1039 but will overextend if Bitcoin does.
Price has fallen out of the lower channel boundary and sitting below the weekly pivot, still above the weekly 200EMA so the outlook is bullish. Wave (4) may complete at the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $230. For now I am waiting to see what happens before entering. Good opportunities are setting up.
🎯 Terminal target for the business cycle could see prices as high as $1000 based on Fibonacci extensions
📈 Weekly RSI has bullish divergence
👉 Analysis is invalidated if we close back below $82
MSTR bearish , going way downBTC cycle is over or almost over - may not get the blow off top everyone is expecting. If that is the case MSTR will go to min 50-60 area if not lower.
$MSTR: ABC correction targeting $230 range.NASDAQ:MSTR : this A-B-C correction is on its last leg. However, Elliot Wave theory suggests C wave usually finishes beyond A wave, which would take NASDAQ:MSTR to $230 range.
Super high Reward Risk Ratio in MSTRAt 267, MSTR is at its long term trend line support.
As per ELliot wave it shows the end of corrective waves. Highly profitable entry setup with just 5% risk as stop loss.
272.30This channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management service
