MARUTI trade ideas
Maruti : All Time High Maruti : All Time High .
On a monthly time frame , a buy signal was triggered on Jan 2022 at around 7400 level and since then it hasn't looked back and made an all time high of 14125 today .
What a marvellous run , just brilliant !!!
( Not a Buy / Sell Recommendation
Do your own due diligence ,Market is subject to risks, This is my own view and for learning only .)
Bearish Black Swan Pattern in Maruti ( Daily ) Bearish Black Swan Pattern in Maruti ( Daily )
pattern clearly suggest bearish move may come
invalidation level 13089 if close abv 13089 on daily pattern will be invalid
harmonic patterns always work on different price degree levels & angels created by specific price
This is pure educational based charts !!!!!
Ye chart kuch kehta hai : Maruti SuzukiMaruti Suzuki India offers a strong long-term investment case due to its dominant market position, steady earnings growth, strategic focus on EVs and exports, and healthy financials. While there are near-term margin pressures and industry growth challenges, these are largely seen as temporary, with the company poised for sustainable growth driven by new product launches and expanding export opportunities.
Maruti Suzuki India is generally considered a good stock for long-term investment based on several key factors:
Strong Market Position and Leadership: Maruti Suzuki is the largest passenger car manufacturer in India, holding a dominant market share. Its extensive product portfolio, including hatchbacks, sedans, and SUVs, caters to a wide customer base, providing stable revenue streams.
Consistent Revenue and Earnings Growth: The company has demonstrated robust financial growth, with total revenue rising from ₹677.89 billion in FY21 to ₹1.42 trillion in FY24, and net income increasing significantly over the years. Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow at about 9.5% annually, indicating steady profitability expansion.
Healthy Financials and Cash Flow: Maruti Suzuki maintains a strong balance sheet with low debt levels (net debt is negative, indicating more cash than debt), substantial cash reserves, and positive free cash flow, which supports operational stability and future investments.
Growth Catalysts:
Electric Vehicle (EV) Expansion: Maruti is positioning India as a hub for global EV exports, which is expected to be a significant growth driver. The launch of new EV models like the e-Vitara and the company's strategic focus on EV exports with a target of over 20% export growth from FY26 onwards enhance its long-term growth prospects.
New Product Launches: Upcoming SUV launches in FY26 are anticipated to boost market share and revenue.
Export Growth: The company is targeting strong export volume growth (over 20% YoY), which diversifies revenue sources and reduces dependency on the domestic market.
Valuation and Analyst Sentiment: The stock trades at a reasonable price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 27.18 with a dividend yield close to 1%, which is attractive for a growth-oriented blue-chip company. Most analysts have a bullish stance, with many recommending a "Buy" and expecting a potential upside of approximately 16% from current levels.
Risks to Consider:
Margin pressure due to startup costs of new plants, higher R&D and advertising expenses, and commodity price volatility could impact short-term profitability.
Domestic industry growth is expected to be modest (1–2% in FY26), which may limit near-term volume growth.
Margin compression is a key risk to monitor, although it is seen as temporary with expected improvement once new plant utilization ramps up.
Maruthi suzuki long ....Chart Pattern: Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP)
The chart displays a textbook Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP), a bullish setup popularized by Mark Minervini.
VCP is characterized by a series of tightening price swings (each dip is shallower than the previous), signaling absorption of supply and a possible explosive breakout when resistance is cleared.
The resistance zone is clearly marked near ₹13,059–₹13,100, with the price currently consolidating just below this level.
Technical Indicators:
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD is positive and appears to be crossing above the signal line, supporting bullish momentum.
Volume: The volume pattern shows contraction during pullbacks and should ideally expand significantly on breakout for confirmation.
Moving Averages: Most moving averages (MA20, MA50, MA100, MA200) are in bullish alignment, supporting the uptrend.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI is at 62.12, suggesting bullish momentum but not yet overbought.
Stochastic: Overbought at 98.3, so some caution is warranted for short-term traders.
Breakout and Target Levels:
Breakout Trigger: A daily close above ₹13,100–₹13,150 with strong volume would confirm the VCP breakout.
Targets:
First Target: ₹14,068 (previous swing high and psychological round number).
Second Target: ₹15,025–₹15,200 (projected from the height of the base and marked on the chart).
These targets align with the typical VCP breakout potential, which can yield 20–100% gains over several months if volume confirms the move.
Stoploss Levels:
Recommended Stoploss: Place a stoploss just below the most recent swing low within the pattern, typically around ₹12,400–₹12,500.
This level is just below the last contraction and provides a logical risk point if the breakout fails.....
MARUTI✅ Trade Setup Summary
Parameter Value
Trade Direction BUY
Entry ₹12,360
Stop Loss (SL) ₹12,115
Risk ₹245
Target ₹14,821
Reward ₹2,461
Risk-Reward (RR) 10.0
Last Swing High ₹13,461
Last Swing Low ₹11,000
🧠 Logic & Key Takeaways
Trend Alignment: Every single timeframe from yearly to 60 minutes is in an uptrend, adding high confluence and confidence.
Entry Zone: Entry at ₹12,360 lies at the proximal zone of both Daily and ITF demand, indicating strong price memory and support.
SL Positioning: ₹12,115 is below the daily & ITF demand, making it a technically sound stop-loss level.
Reward Potential: Target of ₹14,821 offers a 10:1 RR, which is exceptional. Even partial profit booking at the previous high of ₹13,461 (~₹1,100 gain) gives a solid interim return.
Demand Zone Stack: Multiple BUFL demand zones from ₹10,000 to ₹12,000 reinforce strength on any retracement.
⚠️ Risks / Considerations
Narrow Margin for Error: The tight stop-loss (₹245 risk) requires precise entry execution; slight slippage can impact RR drastically.
Overhead Resistance: Some pause might occur around previous high of ₹13,461; monitor for breakout strength or distribution there.
Volume Confirmation Needed: Ensure breakout above ₹12,360 comes with strong volume to validate bullish continuation.
📌 Verdict:
✅ High-conviction BUY trade setup with:
All timeframe uptrend alignment
Entry on fresh daily/ITF demand
Very attractive RR of 10:1
📍 Keep a watch for bullish follow-through with volume post-entry, and consider trailing SL to ₹12,500 after breaking past ₹13,461.
🔍 Multi-Timeframe (MTF) & High Timeframe (HTF) Analysis Summary
Timeframe Trend Demand Zone Type Proximal Distal Avg
Yearly UP BUFL 9769 6536 8153
Half-Yearly UP BUFL 10932 9254 10093
Quarterly UP BUFL 10932 9832 10382
Monthly UP BUFL 11520 10725 11123
Weekly UP BUFL 11133 10725 10929
Daily UP DMIP 12360 12115 12238
ITF (60m–240m) UP BUFL 12360 12115 12237.5
📊 Averages Overview
Timeframe Group Trend Avg Proximal Avg Distal Avg of Averages
HTF Avg UP 10544 8541 9543
MTF Avg UP 11671 11188 11430
ITF Avg UP 12360 12115 12237.5
Maruti Suzuki Chart Breakout Watch | Ascending Triangle PatternNSE:MARUTI
Maruti Suzuki is currently forming a bullish ascending triangle pattern on the 1-hour chart, indicating potential for an upside breakout.
1. Pattern Formation: The price is making higher lows while facing horizontal resistance near the 12,700 zone — forming a classic ascending triangle.
2. Support Zone: Trendline support is holding well, currently near 12,550.
3. Breakout Levels: A confirmed breakout above 12,700 could trigger a sharp move toward the next resistances at 12,888, 13,075, and possibly 13,454.
4. Bullish: Post-breakout, price action is expected to retest and then rally — as shown by the projection arrows on the chart.
5. Volume Confirmation : Watch for volume expansion on breakout to confirm strength.
Trading Plan:
Buy on Breakout : Enter long above 12,700 with targets of 12,888 - 13,075 - 13,454. Use SL below 12,550.
Wait-and-Watch : If price fails to break out, stock may stay range-bound or retest trendline support.
Conclusion:
Price action suggests strength building up. A breakout from this pattern could lead to a fresh rally — ideal setup for short-term swing trades
MARUTI KEY LEVELS FOR 13/05/2025// The core idea behind this indicator was sparked by a simple but powerful clue:
// 👉 "If you get one level, you get all levels."
// From that point onward, everything—the logic, calculation method, and application—has been developed independently through my own analysis and experience.
// I am not a seller, and no one taught me this system. This method is a result of my own effort and refinement.
///////////////////// Explanation /////////////////////
// This trading system is designed to eliminate blind trades by offering confirmation-based entry and exit points.
///////////////////// Entry/Exit Strategy /////////////////////
// - Use the BLACK line for long trades, and the RED line for short trades, in line with confirmation from your trading plan.
// - Stop Loss:
// - For long trades: below the RED line.
// - For short trades: above the BLACK line.
// - Take Profit:
// - For long trades: target the next RED line above.
// - For short trades: target the next BLACK line below.
///////////////////// Recommended Timeframe /////////////////////
// Use on a 5-minute chart for best results.
///////////////////// Disclaimer /////////////////////
// This setup is shared purely for educational purposes.
// I am not responsible for any gains or losses that may result from its use.
// Always use your own judgment and risk management.
Chartamentals (Charting + Fundamentals) : MARUTIPrice-to-Earnings (P/E): 26.58; Trailing P/E aligns with auto industry median.
Price-to-Operating Cash Flow: ~13.5 (estimated); Reflects strong cash conversion.
Strategic Advantage: 45% passenger vehicle market share in India, Suzuki partnership.
Strong Financial Health: Debt-free, ₹14,500 Cr profit, 91/100 solvency score.
Fundamental Summary: ₹157,935 Cr revenue (FY25, +10.7%), overvalued at ₹11,025 intrinsic value vs. ₹12,677 price.
Price and Trend Data: ₹12,677 (May 2, 2025), +58.81% 3-year, underperforms Nifty Auto (+101.29%).
Price Momentum: +3.52% daily, -3.98% 1-month, short-term downtrend.
Moving Averages Indicate: Below 50-day (₹12,300), 200-day (₹12,500), bearish signals.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): 47.6 (14-day), neutral, nearing oversold.
Volume and Sentiment: 2.59L shares daily, declining volume, neutral sentiment.
Technical Summary: Bearish daily signal, neutral MAs, weak oscillators, RSI suggests potential oversold state.
Conclusion: Strong fundamentals (market leadership, debt-free) offset by bearish technicals, cautious market stance.
this is just for educational purpose only. Not buy or sell recommendation
MARUTI | LONG | SWINGMARUTI looks like it is bottoming out.
Today it gapped down massively but the first hour candle has closed quite bullish.
Notice the clear Inverted H&S pattern formation setting up on the 1 Hr chart. This actually firms my bias on the upside.
I've taken Long swing position on MARUTI and plan to hold it for the next couple of weeks max.
TGT - 12,375 level
SL - Bearish close below 11,491
PS - Not a recommendation. Pls due your own due diligence.